Redfin Report: Monthly Payments Set New Record–And Buyers’ Costs Will Likely Stay High on Inflation News

Rhea-AI Summary

Daily average mortgage rates hit a five-month high after an inflation report, leading to record U.S. housing payments of $2,747, up 11% from last year, with home prices at $378,250.

Insights

Financial Analyst

The recent uptick in mortgage rates, which have reached a peak not seen in almost half a year, is a direct consequence of inflationary pressures. This trend is indicative of a broader economic climate where the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its policy of rate hikes to combat inflation. This environment has a multi-faceted impact on the housing market, as higher mortgage rates typically cool demand by increasing the cost of borrowing. This, in turn, can lead to a slowdown in home price appreciation.

From an investment perspective, companies in the housing sector, including lenders and real estate agencies, might face a decrease in transaction volumes. However, the increase in mortgage rates could also signal a strengthening economy, which could benefit other sectors. Investors should monitor the balance between rising rates and economic growth, as it will be critical in determining market sentiment.

Economist

The report from Redfin underscores a significant shift in the housing affordability landscape. An 11% year-over-year increase in median U.S. housing payments is substantial, outpacing general wage growth. This disparity suggests that housing affordability is declining, which could have long-term socioeconomic implications. Higher housing costs can lead to reduced consumer spending in other areas, potentially slowing economic growth.

Furthermore, the housing market is a key indicator of economic health. If mortgage rates continue to rise, we might witness a cooling period in the housing market, which could precede a broader economic slowdown. Stakeholders should consider the potential for a market correction and its implications on consumer spending and the construction industry.

Real Estate Market Analyst

The concurrent rise in home prices and mortgage rates presents a complex scenario for the real estate market. While the median home-sale price has increased by 4.5%, the higher financing costs due to elevated mortgage rates may start to outweigh the benefits for both buyers and sellers. For buyers, the cost of entering the market becomes more prohibitive, potentially reducing demand. For sellers, while the higher prices could be seen as beneficial, the reduced pool of buyers may lead to longer listing times and possibly necessitate price reductions.

Real estate companies may need to adjust their strategies, possibly focusing on alternative financing options or incentives to maintain sales volumes. The market dynamics suggest a shift towards a buyer's market, which could lead to increased competition among sellers and real estate service providers.

Daily average mortgage rates reached their highest level in nearly five months following Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected inflation report, which will likely keep mortgage rates elevated for the foreseeable future

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) —The median monthly U.S. housing payment hit an all-time high of $2,747 during the four weeks ending April 7, up 11% from a year earlier. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

Housing payments are soaring because home prices and mortgage rates are high. The median home-sale price is $378,250, up 4.5% year over year and just about $5,000 shy of the record high hit in June 2022. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.82%, below the near-8% rates hit last October but still more than double pandemic-era lows.

Prices are staying stubbornly high because there’s enough homebuying demand to prop them up. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—is at its highest level since last July. A separate measure of tours shows they’ve increased 33% since the start of 2024, much bigger than last year’s increase over the same period (that’s partly because Easter fell during this week last year). And even though supply is picking up—new listings rose 14% year over year—inventory is still low compared to typical spring levels, meaning there’s competition for many of the homes that are on the market.

Mortgage rates, the other factor driving up monthly housing payments, remain elevated because the Fed has kept interest rates high so far this year. Daily average mortgage rates jumped to their highest level since last November this week because the March inflation report was hotter than expected, after rising last week because the latest jobs report showed a stronger-than-expected economy.

“For homebuyers, the latest CPI report means mortgage rates will stay higher for longer because it makes the Fed unlikely to cut interest rates in the next few months,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Housing costs are likely to continue going up for the near future, but persistently high mortgage rates and rising supply could cool home-price growth by the end of the year, taking some pressure off costs.”

For more of Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	7.34% (April 10)	Up from 6.91% two weeks earlier; highest level since November 2023	Up from 6.52%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.82% (week ending April 4)	Up just slightly from 6.79% a week earlier	Up from 6.28%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Declined 5% from a week earlier (as of week ending April 5)	Down 23%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)		Up 7% from a month earlier to highest level since July 2023 (as of week ending April 7)	Down 6%	Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity		Up 33% from the start of the year (as of April 9)	At this time last year, it was up 9% from the start of 2023 (last year’s increase was much smaller partly because this was Easter week in 2023)	ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”		Up 4% from a month earlier (as of April 6)	Down 9%	Google Trends

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending April 7, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending April 7, 2024	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$378,250	4.5%
Median asking price	$410,950	6.5%	Biggest increase since Oct. 2022
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,747 at a 6.82% mortgage rate	11.3%	All-time high
Pending sales	84,323	-4%
New listings	91,452	14.1%	Biggest increase since June 2021 (year-over-year increase was large partly because Easter fell during this time period in 2023)
Active listings	819,031	8.2%
Months of supply	3.2 months	+0.4 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
Share of homes off market in two weeks	42.5%	Down from 44%
Median days on market	37	-1 day
Share of homes sold above list price	28.4%	Essentially unchanged
Share of homes with a price drop	5.8%	+1.5 pts.
Average sale-to-list price ratio	99.1%	+0.3 pts.

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending April 7, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	Anaheim, CA (22.2%) West Palm Beach, FL (17.4%) Pittsburgh (15.2%) San Jose, CA (13.9%) New Brunswick, NJ (13.9%)	San Antonio, TX (-1.7%)	Declined in just 1 metro
Pending sales	San Jose, CA (22.6%) San Francisco (15.8%) Cincinnati (5.7%) Milwaukee (5.5%) Seattle (5.4%)	Atlanta (-15.3%) Houston (-13.5%) Nassau County, NY (-12.1%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-11.2%) West Palm Beach, FL (-10.9%)	Increased in 11 metros
New listings	San Jose, CA (56.8%) Sacramento, CA (39.2%) Austin, TX (30.7%) Jacksonville, FL (30.5%) Oakland, CA (30.4%)	Newark, NJ (-3.1%) Milwaukee (-3%) Chicago (-2.9%) Providence, RI (-2.2%) Atlanta (-2%) Cleveland (-0.1%)	Declined in 6 metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-mortgage-payments-record-high-inflation-report

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240411302713/en/

Redfin Journalist Services:

Kenneth Applewhaite, 206-414-8880

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What caused the increase in daily average mortgage rates?

The increase in daily average mortgage rates was triggered by a hotter-than-expected inflation report.

What is the median monthly U.S. housing payment?

The median monthly U.S. housing payment reached an all-time high of $2,747.

How much did the median home-sale price increase by year over year?

The median home-sale price increased by 4.5% year over year, reaching $378,250.

Why are housing payments soaring?

Housing payments are soaring due to high home prices and mortgage rates.