Prospective Home Sellers and Buyers Retreated in August as Mortgage Rates Approached 6%

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin reported that new listings of homes for sale fell 8% in August, reaching the lowest level since May 2020. The increase in mortgage rates from 5% to 6% has reduced buyer demand, creating a more balanced market between buyers and sellers. Median sale prices decreased by 1.3% month-over-month but rose 7.1% year-over-year. The total number of homes sold decreased by 19.5% year-over-year. Despite signs of a housing recession, experts indicate that homeowners are unlikely to sell due to previously locked-in mortgage rates.

Positive

• Median sale price increased by 7.1% year-over-year.
• Median days on market remained low at 26 days.

Negative

• New listings dropped by 8% month-over-month and 20.2% year-over-year.
• Homes sold decreased by 19.5% year-over-year.
• Pending sales down by 17.3% year-over-year.
• Mortgage rates increased from 5% to 6%, reducing buyer activity.

New listings fell 8% in August to their lowest level since May 2020. Prior to the onset of the pandemic, the last time so few homes hit the market was August 2012

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Seasonally-adjusted new listings of homes for sale fell 8% from July to August to their lowest level since May 2020, when the housing market was paralyzed by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Prior to the pandemic, we hadn’t seen so few homes hit the market since November 2012.

Mortgage rates climbed from 5% at the beginning of August to 6% by the end of the month, pushing many homebuyers out of the market. This sharp decrease in demand gave the buyers who were left some additional negotiating power and softened home prices a bit, but caused many potential home sellers to hold off on listing. As a result, the market as a whole is relatively balanced between buyers and sellers, but there’s very little activity in terms of homes being listed and sold.

“When mortgage rates were below 3%, sales and home prices soared. The market was like a game of musical chairs with buyers vying for too few homes,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “As mortgage rates approached 6%, almost everyone left the party. Now the market is more like a middle school dance where a small number of buyers and sellers are pairing up during a slow song.”

While we may be in a housing recession, the slowdown in sales is not a sign of a bubble bursting, Fairweather went on to explain:

“The bottom line is that homeowners don’t need to sell in this environment. They locked in rock-bottom mortgage rates last year and are sitting on piles of equity. The jobs market remains very strong, so there’s little risk that mortgage delinquencies or foreclosures will rise significantly. It would take a severe—not soft—recession to send homeowners into distress. We will have to wait and see if the broader economy steers towards normalcy or recession in the upcoming months.”

National Highlights

Market Summary		August 2022		Month-Over-Month		Year-Over-Year
Median sale price		$406,900		-1.3%		7.1%
Homes sold, seasonally-adjusted		500,100		-1.7%		-19.5%
Pending sales, seasonally-adjusted		489,200		0.2%		-17.3%
New listings, seasonally-adjusted		534,322		-8.2%		-20.2%
All Homes for sale, seasonally-adjusted		1,524,400		-1.1%		2.7%
Median days on market		26		5		9
Months of supply		2		-0.2		0.6
Sold above list		37.6%		-9.6 pts†		-14.3 pts†
Median Off-Market Redfin Estimate		$417,800		-0.9%		18.2%
Average Sale-to-list		99.9%		-1.1 pts†		-1.7 pts†
Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate		5.22%		-0.19 pp†		+2.38 pp†
† - “pp” = percentage-point change

Metro-Level Highlights

Competition

• Indianapolis, Grand Rapids, MI and Rochester, NY were the fastest markets, with half of all homes pending sale in just 8 days. Albany, NY and Omaha, NE were the next fastest markets with 9 and 10 median days on market.
• The most competitive market in August was Rochester, NY where 73.0% of homes sold above list price, followed by 72.4% in Buffalo, NY, 65.8% in Newark, NJ, 65.2% in Hartford, CT, and 62.8% in Worcester, MA.

Prices

• Cape Coral, FL had the nation's highest price growth, rising 20.6% since last year to $392,000. Knoxville, TN had the second highest growth at 20% year-over-year price growth, followed by Tampa, FL (19.7%), North Port, FL (19.5%), and West Palm Beach, FL (19.2%).
• 4 metros saw year-over-year price declines in August including San Francisco (-7.3%), Oakland, CA (-3.2%), Baton Rouge, LA (-1.1%), and Honolulu (-0.6%).

Sales

• No metro areas had year-over-year sales growth in August. The smallest declines were in Dayton, OH, down 1.4%, followed by Greenville, SC, down 2.7%. Rochester, NY rounded out the top three with sales down 3.7% from a year ago.
• Las Vegas saw the largest decline in sales since last year, falling 37.2%. Home sales in San Jose, CA and Phoenix declined by 33.8% and 31.9%, respectively.

Inventory

• North Port, FL had the highest increase in the number of homes for sale, up 51.2% year over year, followed by Austin, TX (39.5%) and Nashville, TN (38.0%).
• Allentown, PA had the largest decrease in overall active listings, falling 44.5% since last August. Bridgeport, CT (-29.7%), Hartford, CT (-27.0%), and Montgomery County, PA (-26.8%) also saw far fewer homes available on the market than a year ago.

To view the full report, including charts, metro-level data and methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/august-housing-market-slowed-by-high-mortgage-rates/

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, instant home-buying (iBuying), rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge half the fee. We also run the country's #1 real-estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can take an instant cash offer from Redfin or have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 6,000 people.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220916005437/en/

Redfin Journalist Services:

Ally Braun, 206-588-6863

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What were the new listings for homes in August 2023 according to RDFN?

New listings of homes for sale fell 8% in August 2023, marking the lowest level since May 2020.

How did mortgage rates change in August 2023?

Mortgage rates climbed from 5% at the beginning of August to 6% by the end of the month.

What was the median sale price trend for homes in August 2023?

The median sale price decreased by 1.3% from July while increasing by 7.1% year-over-year.

What were the year-over-year changes in homes sold reported by RDFN?

Homes sold decreased by 19.5% year-over-year in August 2023.

What does RDFN indicate about the housing market's activity in August 2023?

RDFN reports that the housing market is relatively balanced, but with very little activity in listings and sales.