Bidding-War Rate Drops to Lowest Level Since April 2020 As Mortgage Rates Surge

Rhea-AI Summary

In August, only 44.6% of home offers made by Redfin agents faced competition, representing a significant decline from 63.5% a year earlier and marking the lowest rate since the pandemic's onset. The typical home in a bidding war garnered 3.2 offers, down from 5 a year prior. High mortgage rates, now around 6%, are driving buyers from the market, contributing to a nearly 20% year-over-year drop in home sales. San Antonio, Tampa, and Phoenix reported the lowest bidding-war rates, while Philadelphia experienced the highest at 61.7%. The market shift reflects changing buyer dynamics and escalating costs.

Positive

• Bidding-war rate decreased to 44.6%, the lowest since the pandemic began.
• Typical home in a bidding war received 3.2 offers, showing a decline in competition.

Negative

• Home sales down nearly 20% year-over-year due to high mortgage rates.
• Mortgage rates increased to around 6%, making home buying more expensive.

Just over 4 in 10 Redfin home offers faced competition in August, down significantly from a year earlier as 6% mortgage rates price buyers out of the market

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Nationwide, 44.6% of home offers written by Redfin agents faced competition in August, the lowest bidding-war rate since the beginning of the pandemic when the housing market nearly ground to a halt, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. It’s down from 63.5% a year earlier and a revised rate of 47.2% in July, and marks the seventh-straight monthly decline.

The typical home in a bidding war received 3.2 offers in August, compared with 3.5 one month earlier and 5 one year earlier, according to data submitted by Redfin agents nationwide.

The bidding-war rate is falling as the housing market cools and buyers back off from the pandemic-driven homebuying frenzy in 2021 and early 2022, with the number of home sales down nearly 20% year over year.

Buyers are dropping out of the market and competition is dwindling largely because mortgage rates have doubled from a year ago, reaching 6% in mid-September. The increase in rates makes buying a home much more expensive: A buyer purchasing a $400,000 home has a monthly mortgage payment of roughly $2,500 with today’s 6% mortgage rate, up from under $2,000 with last year’s 3% rates.

San Antonio, Tampa and Phoenix among metros with the lowest bidding-war rates

Just over one in five (21.7%) of home offers submitted by Redfin agents in San Antonio, TX faced competition in August, the lowest share of the 36 metros in this analysis.

Tampa, FL had the second-lowest bidding-war rate, with 23.8% of offers facing competition, followed by Olympia, WA (24.2%), Phoenix (26.4%) and Minneapolis (27%). Tampa, Olympia (part of the greater Seattle metro) and Phoenix are all among the 20 U.S. housing markets cooling fastest this year after attracting scores of homebuyers during the pandemic.

To be included in this analysis, metros must have had a monthly average of at least 50 offers submitted by Redfin agents from March 2021 to March 2022. Scroll down to the bottom of this report to see a table with data on all 36 metros.

Philadelphia, where 61.7% of offers faced competition, had the highest bidding-war rate. It’s followed by San Jose (58%), Providence, RI (54.5%), Boston (54%) and Detroit (52.9%).

Homebuyer competition declined most in North Carolina

The bidding-war rate has declined most in Raleigh, NC, where 35.4% of home offers faced competition in August, down from 78.9% a year earlier. It’s followed by San Antonio, where 59.8% of offers faced competition last year.

Charlotte, NC (31.4%, down from 68.8%), Olympia, WA (24.2%, down from 60.7%) and Colorado Springs, CO (29.7%, down from 62.5%) round out the five metros where competition has dropped most.

The bidding-war rate declined in all 36 metros in this analysis except Philadelphia, the metro with the highest rate. The rate there is up from 60.2% a year ago.

Townhomes most likely to face competition, condos least likely

Offers for townhouses were more likely than other property types to encounter competition, with 44.1% of Redfin offers facing bidding wars. They were followed by single-family homes (42.1%), multi-family properties (40.2%) and condos (37%).

Townhouses are popular in today’s pricey housing market because they’re typically smaller and more affordable than single-family homes.

Bidding-War Rates by Metro Area
This table is sorted by lowest to highest bidding-war rates in August 2022
U.S. metro area			August 2022: Share of Redfin offers that faced competition	July 2022: Share of Redfin offers that faced competition	August 2021: Share of Redfin offers that faced competition
San Antonio, TX			21.7%	43.4%	59.8%
Tampa, FL			23.8%	35.7%	53.6%
Olympia, WA			24.2%	47.7%	60.7%
Phoenix, AZ			26.4%	26.9%	57.9%
Minneapolis, MN			27%	49%	50%
Austin, TX			28.6%	33.3%	58%
Colorado Springs, CO			29.7%	38.5%	62.5%
Orlando, FL			30%	42.4%	56.7%
Las Vegas, NV			30.9%	38.4%	56.3%
Charlotte, NC			31.4%	35.4%	68.8%
Seattle, WA			33.9%	32.2%	62.4%
Atlanta, GA			34.9%	44.8%	59.6%
Raleigh, NC			35.4%	63.8%	78.9%
Houston, TX			36.7%	45.8%	49.6%
Denver, CO			38.9%	37.9%	57.9%
Riverside, CA			39.4%	32.9%	67.2%
Nashville, TN			40%	35%	60.5%
Chicago, IL			41.9%	48.4%	46.4%
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX			41.9%	53.6%	65.6%
New York, NY			42.2%	48.9%	60.4%
Miami, FL			42.2%	39.4%	57.5%
Washington, D.C.			44.3%	45.4%	54.1%
San Diego, CA			45.5%	42.5%	68.3%
Sacramento, CA			45.5%	32.9%	65.5%
Honolulu, HI			45.7%	66.7%	59.6%
Los Angeles, CA			49.1%	58.4%	69.8%
Portland, OR			49.3%	41.4%	63.5%
Baltimore, MD			50.3%	54.7%	58.6%
Worcester, MA			51.2%	54.3%	65.3%
Indianapolis, IN			51.6%	47.4%	57.1%
San Francisco, CA			52.5%	52.8%	69.9%
Detroit, MI			52.9%	46.8%	68.1%
Boston, MA			54%	55.2%	68.7%
Providence, RI			54.5%	61.4%	60%
San Jose, CA			58%	52.9%	72.3%
Philadelphia, PA			61.7%	63.1%	60.2%

To view the full report, including charts and methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/real-estate-bidding-wars-august-2022

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, instant home-buying (iBuying), rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge half the fee. We also run the country's #1 real-estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can take an instant cash offer from Redfin or have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 6,000 people.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220923005100/en/

Contact Redfin

Redfin Journalist Services:

Ally Braun, 206-588-6863

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What was the bidding-war rate for Redfin in August 2022?

The bidding-war rate for Redfin in August 2022 was 44.6%, the lowest since the pandemic.

How much did home sales decline year-over-year according to Redfin?

Home sales declined nearly 20% year-over-year.

What is the significance of the 6% mortgage rate for homebuyers?

The 6% mortgage rate significantly increases monthly payments, discouraging buyers.

Which metro areas had the lowest bidding-war rates in August 2022?

San Antonio, Tampa, and Phoenix had the lowest bidding-war rates.

What is the highest bidding-war rate reported by Redfin in August 2022?

Philadelphia had the highest bidding-war rate at 61.7%.