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Northern Trust Pension Universe Data: Canadian Pension Plan Returns Advanced in Q2 as Global Equities Gained Momentum

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The Northern Trust Canada Universe reports that Canadian pension plans saw positive returns in Q2 2024, with a median return of 1.1% for the quarter and 3.5% year-to-date. This performance was driven by global equities gaining momentum, despite volatility early in the period. The Bank of Canada and European Central Bank shifted to a less restrictive monetary policy, while other major central banks remained cautious.

Global equities performed well, led by emerging markets. The S&P 500 Index returned 5.4% in CAD, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 6.3% in CAD. Canadian equities saw a modest decline of -0.5%. The Canadian Fixed Income market generated a gain of 0.9% for the quarter, benefiting from the Bank of Canada's interest rate cut.

Il Northern Trust Canada Universe riporta che i fondi pensione canadesi hanno registrato ritorni positivi nel secondo trimestre del 2024, con un ritorno mediano dell'1.1% per il trimestre e 3.5% da inizio anno. Questa performance è stata sostenuta dall'aumento della momentum delle azioni globali, nonostante la volatilità all'inizio del periodo. La Banca del Canada e la Banca Centrale Europea hanno adottato una politica monetaria meno restrittiva, mentre altre importanti banche centrali sono rimaste caute.

Le azioni globali hanno avuto buone performance, guidate dai mercati emergenti. L'Indice S&P 500 ha restituito 5.4% in CAD, mentre l'Indice MSCI dei Mercati Emergenti è avanzato 6.3% in CAD. Le azioni canadesi hanno visto un modestissimo calo di -0.5%. Il mercato delle obbligazioni canadesi ha generato un guadagno dello 0.9% per il trimestre, beneficiando del taglio dei tassi d'interesse della Banca del Canada.

El Northern Trust Canada Universe informa que los planes de pensiones canadienses experimentaron rendimientos positivos en el segundo trimestre de 2024, con un rendimiento mediano del 1.1% para el trimestre y 3.5% desde el inicio del año. Este rendimiento fue impulsado por el incremento del impulso de las acciones globales, a pesar de la volatilidad al inicio del período. El Banco de Canadá y el Banco Central Europeo pasaron a una política monetaria menos restrictiva, mientras que otros importantes bancos centrales se mantuvieron cautelosos.

Las acciones globales tuvieron un buen desempeño, lideradas por los mercados emergentes. El Índice S&P 500 tuvo un retorno de 5.4% en CAD, mientras que el Índice MSCI de Mercados Emergentes avanzó 6.3% en CAD. Las acciones canadienses experimentaron una leve caída de -0.5%. El mercado de renta fija canadiense generó una ganancia del 0.9% en el trimestre, beneficiándose de la reducción de tasas de interés del Banco de Canadá.

노던 트러스트 캐나다 유니버스는 캐나다 연금 계획이 2024년 2분기에 긍정적인 수익을 기록했으며, 분기당 중간 수익률이 1.1%이고 올해 들어 3.5%에 이르렀다고 보고했습니다. 이 성과는 글로벌 주식의 모멘텀 증가로 추진되었으나, 기간 초반의 변동성에도 불구하고 이루어진 것입니다. 캐나다 중앙은행유럽 중앙은행은 덜 제한적인 통화 정책으로 전환했으며, 다른 주요 중앙은행들은 조심스러운 태도를 유지했습니다.

글로벌 주식은 잘 운영되었으며, 이는 신흥 시장이 주도합니다. S&P 500 지수CAD로 5.4%의 수익률을 기록했으며, MSCI 신흥 시장 지수CAD로 6.3% 상승했습니다. 캐나다 주식은 -0.5%의 적당한 감소를 경험했습니다. 캐나다 채권 시장은 2분기에 0.9%의 이익을 기록하며, 캐나다 중앙은행의 금리 인하 혜택을 보았습니다.

Le Northern Trust Canada Universe rapporte que les régimes de retraite canadiens ont affiché des rendements positifs au deuxième trimestre 2024, avec un rendement médian de 1.1% pour le trimestre et 3.5% depuis le début de l'année. Cette performance a été favorisée par le gain de momentum des actions mondiales, malgré la volatilité en début de période. La Banque du Canada et la Banque centrale européenne ont adopté une politique monétaire moins restrictive, tandis que d'autres grandes banques centrales sont restées prudentes.

Les actions mondiales ont bien performé, menées par les marchés émergents. L'Indice S&P 500 a enregistré un retour de 5.4% en CAD, tandis que l'Indice MSCI des Marchés Émergents a progressé de 6.3% en CAD. Les actions canadiennes ont connu une légère baisse de -0.5%. Le marché obligataire canadien a généré un bénéfice de 0.9% ce trimestre, grâce à la réduction des taux d'intérêt par la Banque du Canada.

Das Northern Trust Canada Universe berichtet, dass die kanadischen Pensionskassen im 2. Quartal 2024 positive Renditen verzeichneten, mit einer medianen Rendite von 1.1% für das Quartal und 3.5% seit Jahresbeginn. Diese Leistung wurde durch globalen Aktien, die an Dynamik gewonnen haben, unterstützt, trotz der Volatilität zu Beginn des Zeitraums. Die Bank von Kanada und die Europäische Zentralbank haben zu einer weniger restriktiven Geldpolitik gewechselt, während andere große Zentralbanken vorsichtig bleiben.

Globale Aktien schnitten gut ab, angeführt von den Schwellenländern. Der S&P 500 Index erzielte eine Rendite von 5.4% in CAD, während der MSCI Index für Schwellenländer 6.3% in CAD zulegte. Kanadische Aktien verzeichneten einen leichten Rückgang von -0.5%. Der kanadische Anleihemarkt erzielte im Quartal einen Gewinn von 0.9%, was auf die Zinssenkung der Bank von Kanada zurückzuführen ist.

Positive
  • Median Canadian Pension Plan returned 1.1% for Q2 and 3.5% year-to-date
  • Global equities performed well, with S&P 500 Index returning 5.4% in CAD
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 6.3% in CAD
  • Canadian Fixed Income market generated a gain of 0.9% for the quarter
  • Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark policy rate by 25 bps to 4.75%
Negative
  • Canadian equities declined -0.5% for the quarter
  • Canadian unemployment hit its highest level since early 2022, rising to 6.4% in June
  • U.S. unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.1%, the highest since November 2021

Insights

The second quarter of 2024 brought a significant shift in the Canadian pension landscape, with the median Canadian Pension Plan returning 1.1% for the quarter and 3.5% year-to-date. This positive performance, despite economic challenges, underscores the resilience of Canadian pension plans.

The Bank of Canada's decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 4.75% marks a pivotal moment, being the first G7 nation to do so. This move signals a potential easing cycle, which could have far-reaching implications for pension fund strategies and returns.

Global equities showed strength, with the S&P 500 returning 5.4% in CAD and emerging markets advancing 6.3% in CAD. However, Canadian equities lagged, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index declining 0.5%. This divergence highlights the importance of global diversification in pension portfolios.

The Canadian fixed income market's positive performance, with the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index gaining 0.9%, suggests that pension funds with significant bond allocations may have benefited from the BoC's rate cut. This could lead to a reassessment of asset allocation strategies among pension managers.

Looking ahead, pension plans will need to navigate a complex environment of diverging central bank policies, persistent inflation concerns and potential economic slowdown. The ability to adapt to these changing conditions will be important for maintaining strong returns and ensuring long-term sustainability.

The Q2 2024 performance of Canadian pension plans reflects a nuanced economic landscape. The 1.1% quarterly return, while positive, indicates cautious growth amidst global uncertainties. This performance should be contextualized within the broader economic indicators.

Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.4% in June, the highest since early 2022. This uptick, coupled with signs of slower economic growth, suggests potential headwinds for domestic investments. However, the cooling inflation rate, dropping to 2.7% in June, aligns with the Bank of Canada's target and supports their decision to cut rates.

The divergence between Canadian and global equity performance is noteworthy. While the S&P/TSX Composite declined 0.5%, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index surged 6.3% in CAD. This disparity underscores the importance of global diversification in pension portfolios, particularly as emerging markets gain momentum.

The technology sector's strong performance, especially in the U.S. and emerging markets, highlights the growing influence of AI and chip-related investments. Pension funds may need to reassess their sector allocations to capitalize on these trends while managing risk.

As central banks globally navigate the delicate balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth, pension plans must remain agile. The BoC's rate cut could signal a shift towards more accommodative policies, potentially impacting fixed income strategies and overall portfolio construction in the coming quarters.

TORONTO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Canadian pension plans witnessed a positive finish to the second quarter, according to the Northern Trust Canada Universe. The median Canadian Pension Plan returned 1.1 percent for the quarter and 3.5 percent year-to-date.

The second quarter marked a pivotal shift in monetary policy to a less restrictive tone in some developed regions, led by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and followed by the European Central Bank (ECB). As these two monetary authorities gained confidence in the path and level of inflation, most other major central banks maintained a cautious narrative as they continued to monitor progress in bringing down inflation in a sustainable manner and in line with their respective targets and mandates.

Financial markets were challenged with volatility early in the period as geopolitical tensions mounted, combined with the release of stronger economic data supportive of persistent inflation. Despite the uncertainty, global equities marched higher throughout the quarter, led by emerging markets, concluding the period with attractive returns. Although Canadian equities posted a modest decline as pockets of softer economic data emerged, the Canadian bond market benefited from the BoC interest rate cut, resulting in a rebound into positive territory for the quarter. The current divergence in major central bank policies coupled with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) consistent messaging regarding the direction of interest rates led to a modest strengthening of the U.S. dollar over the quarter.

“As we conclude the first half of 2024, a theme of sustainability permeated across the globe. We have seen it through central bank actions as policymakers seek a sustainable path of inflation in an effort to normalize monetary policy. This theme continues to echo across the Canadian pension plan landscape as plan sponsors demonstrate resilience and agility while navigating the economic elements of high interest rates, persistent inflation and waves of volatility,” said Katie Pries, President and CEO of Northern Trust Canada.

The Northern Trust Canada universe tracks the performance of Canadian institutional defined benefit plans that subscribe to performance measurement services as part of Northern Trust’s asset service offerings.

Despite a challenging economic backdrop in the second quarter, corporate earnings remained strong and investor optimism prevailed, leading to solid returns for global equities for the period. Although the Canadian equity market witnessed weaker results relative to its global peers, the Canadian bond universe welcomed the first interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and closed the quarter with a positive tone.

  • Canadian Equities, as measured by the S&P/TSX Composite Index, declined -0.5% for the quarter. The Materials and Consumer Staples sectors were the top performers for the period. The Health Care sector posted the weakest performance followed by the Real Estate and Information Technology sectors.
  • U.S. Equities, as measured by the S&P 500 Index returned 5.4% in CAD for the quarter, with the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors leading performance with double digit returns. The Materials, Industrials, Energy, Financials and Real Estate sectors retreated during the period.
  • International developed markets, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, generated 0.9% in CAD for the quarter. Most sectors observed positive returns led by the Health Care and the Financials sectors, while the Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate sectors were the most notable laggards during the period.
  • The MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 6.3% in CAD for the quarter. Most sectors achieved positive returns with the Information Technology sector leading the index with strong performance, while the Health Care, Consumer Staples and the Materials sectors produced negative returns for the period.

The Canadian economy witnessed some early signs of slower economic growth, disinflationary pressures along with softening employment. Unemployment hit its highest level since early 2022, rising to 6.4% in June, up from 6.1% in March. Although inflation nudged higher in May relative to the previous month, the most recent year over year figure in June of 2.7% highlighted that Canadian inflation continues to cool.

The U.S. economy continued to exhibit strength during the quarter despite softer patches of growth data. Progress on inflation emerged, as CPI rose 3.0% in June (y/y) down from 3.5% (y/y) in March. Despite the solid number of jobs added in the month of June, the unemployment rate witnessed an unexpected rise to 4.1%, the highest since November 2021. The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained the Federal Funds Target Rate at 5.25% - 5.50%. The Fed Chair emphasized the bank’s intention to only cut interest rates once it has “gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the committee’s 2% objective.”

International markets observed progress in efforts to bring inflation closer to central bank targets. The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered interest rates by 25 bps, marking the start of an easing cycle for the ECB. Although inflation eased in June, the committee remains cautious regarding its inflation outlook and suggested further rate cuts would only come slowly. The Bank of England (BoE) maintained its benchmark rate at 5.25%, despite headline inflation dropping. The BoE justified its decision as it “needs to be sure inflation will stay low” but signaled a rate cut could be possible at its August meeting. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held rates steady at 0%-0.1% after hiking rates the previous quarter.

Emerging markets gained momentum during the second quarter, outperforming developed markets. Much of the outperformance was attributed to investor interest in the AI/Chips space. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) held the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) steady at 3.45% and 3.95% respectively. The Central Bank of Brazil dropped the key Selic rate by 25bps in May to 10.5%. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) also chose to keep rates steady at 6.5%.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) announced at its June meeting that monetary policy “no longer needs to be as restrictive” and lowered its benchmark policy rate by 25 bps to 4.75%. The BoC was the first of G7 nations to cut rates, having held its policy rate at 5% since July 2023.

The Canadian Fixed Income market, as measured by the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index, generated a gain of 0.9% for the quarter. Corporate bonds outpaced Federal and Provincial bonds with all three segments generating positive performance. All bond durations witnessed gains for the quarter, with short-term bonds leading mid and long-term bonds.

About Northern Trust

Northern Trust Corporation (Nasdaq: NTRS) is a leading provider of wealth management, asset servicing, asset management and banking to corporations, institutions, affluent families and individuals. Founded in Chicago in 1889, Northern Trust has a global presence with offices in 24 U.S. states and Washington, D.C., and across 22 locations in Canada, Europe, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region. As of June 30, 2024, Northern Trust had assets under custody/administration of US$16.6 trillion, and assets under management of US$1.5 trillion. For more than 130 years, Northern Trust has earned distinction as an industry leader for exceptional service, financial expertise, integrity and innovation. Visit us on northerntrust.com. Follow us on X (formerly Twitter) @NorthernTrust or Northern Trust Corporation on LinkedIn.

Northern Trust Corporation, Head Office: 50 South La Salle Street, Chicago, Illinois 60603 U.S.A., incorporated with limited liability in the U.S. Global legal and regulatory information can be found at https://www.northerntrust.com/terms-and-conditions.

Doug Holt

(312) 557-1571

Dh124@ntrs.com

http://www.northerntrust.com

Source: Northern Trust Corporation

FAQ

What was the median return for Canadian pension plans in Q2 2024 according to Northern Trust?

According to the Northern Trust Canada Universe, the median Canadian Pension Plan returned 1.1% for Q2 2024.

How did global equities perform in Q2 2024 based on the Northern Trust report?

Global equities performed well in Q2 2024, with the S&P 500 Index returning 5.4% in CAD and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index advancing 6.3% in CAD.

What was the performance of Canadian equities in Q2 2024 according to Northern Trust?

Canadian equities, as measured by the S&P/TSX Composite Index, declined -0.5% for Q2 2024.

How did the Canadian Fixed Income market perform in Q2 2024 based on the Northern Trust report?

The Canadian Fixed Income market, as measured by the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index, generated a gain of 0.9% for Q2 2024.

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