Lincoln Financial Releases Its Q1 Market Intel Exchange, Highlighting Top Investment Trends on the Minds of Investors
Lincoln Financial (NYSE: LNC) has released its Q1 Market Intel Exchange report, offering key insights for investors in 2025. The report highlights three main trends: First, while the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its cutting cycle, rate cut expectations are shifting due to stronger economy and stickier inflation projections. Historical analysis shows stocks typically gain +20% in the 12 months following the first cut during non-recessionary periods.
Second, the report examines how the new administration's policies could impact markets, with potential tailwinds from tax cuts and deregulation, but uncertainty regarding trade and immigration policies' inflationary effects. Third, despite the S&P 500's back-to-back 20% gains in 2023 (26.3%) and 2024 (25%), historical data suggests continued positive performance, with an average 12% gain following similar occurrences since 1950.
Lincoln Financial (NYSE: LNC) ha pubblicato il suo rapporto Q1 Market Intel Exchange, offrendo importanti intuizioni per gli investitori nel 2025. Il rapporto evidenzia tre tendenze principali: in primo luogo, mentre si prevede che la Federal Reserve continui il ciclo di tagli, le aspettative sui tassi di interesse si stanno spostando a causa di una economia più forte e di proiezioni di inflazione più persistenti. L'analisi storica mostra che le azioni generalmente guadagnano un +20% nei 12 mesi successivi al primo taglio durante i periodi non recessivi.
In secondo luogo, il rapporto esamina come le politiche della nuova amministrazione potrebbero influenzare i mercati, con potenziali vantaggi derivanti da tagli fiscali e deregolamentazione, ma con incertezze riguardo agli effetti inflazionistici delle politiche commerciali e sull'immigrazione. Infine, nonostante i guadagni consecutivi del 20% dell'S&P 500 nel 2023 (26,3%) e nel 2024 (25%), i dati storici suggeriscono un rendimento positivo continuo, con un guadagno medio del 12% dopo simili eventi dal 1950.
Lincoln Financial (NYSE: LNC) ha publicado su informe Q1 Market Intel Exchange, ofreciendo perspectivas clave para los inversionistas en 2025. El informe destaca tres tendencias principales: en primer lugar, aunque se espera que la Reserva Federal continúe con su ciclo de recortes, las expectativas de recorte de tasas están cambiando debido a una economía más fuerte y proyecciones de inflación más persistentes. El análisis histórico muestra que las acciones típicamente ganan un +20% en los 12 meses siguientes al primer corte durante períodos no recesivos.
En segundo lugar, el informe examina cómo las políticas de la nueva administración podrían impactar los mercados, con posibles vientos a favor de recortes de impuestos y desregulación, pero con incertidumbre respecto a los efectos inflacionarios de las políticas comerciales e inmigratorias. Por último, a pesar de las ganancias consecutivas del 20% del S&P 500 en 2023 (26.3%) y 2024 (25%), los datos históricos sugieren un rendimiento positivo continuo, con una ganancia promedio del 12% después de ocurrencias similares desde 1950.
링컨 재정 (NYSE: LNC)은 2025년 투자자들을 위한 주요 통찰력을 제공하는 Q1 시장 정보 교환 보고서를 발표했습니다. 이 보고서는 세 가지 주요 트렌드를 강조합니다: 첫째, 연방준비제도가 금리 인하 사이클을 계속할 것으로 예상되지만, 더 강력한 경제와 더 지속적인 인플레이션 전망으로 인해 금리 인하 기대가 변화하고 있습니다. 역사적 분석에 따르면 주식은 비침체기 동안 첫 번째 금리 인하 이후 12개월 동안 일반적으로 +20% 상승합니다.
둘째, 보고서는 새로운 정부의 정책이 시장에 미칠 수 있는 영향을 조사하며, 세금 인하와 규제 완화로 인한 긍정적인 요인이 있을 수 있지만, 무역 및 이민 정책이 인플레이션에 미치는 영향에 대한 불확실성도 있습니다. 셋째, S&P 500이 2023년 (26.3%)과 2024년 (25%)에 연속적으로 20%의 상승률을 기록했음에도 불구하고, 역사적 데이터는 1950년 이후 유사한 사건 뒤 평균 12%의 상승률을 나타내며 지속적인 긍정적 성과를 시사합니다.
Lincoln Financial (NYSE: LNC) a publié son rapport Q1 Market Intel Exchange, offrant des perspectives clés pour les investisseurs en 2025. Le rapport met en évidence trois tendances principales : premièrement, bien que la Réserve fédérale continue son cycle de baisse des taux, les attentes de baisse de taux évoluent en raison d'une économie plus forte et de prévisions d'inflation plus tenaces. L'analyse historique montre que les actions gagnent généralement +20 % au cours des 12 mois suivant la première baisse lors de périodes non récessionnaires.
Deuxièmement, le rapport examine comment les politiques de la nouvelle administration pourraient avoir un impact sur les marchés, avec des vents favorables potentiels provenant de réductions d'impôts et de déréglementations, mais une incertitude concernant les effets inflationnistes des politiques commerciales et migratoires. Enfin, malgré les gains consécutifs de 20 % du S&P 500 en 2023 (26,3 %) et 2024 (25 %), les données historiques suggèrent une performance continue positive, avec un gain moyen de 12 % après des occurrences similaires depuis 1950.
Lincoln Financial (NYSE: LNC) hat seinen Bericht Q1 Market Intel Exchange veröffentlicht, der wichtige Einblicke für Investoren im Jahr 2025 bietet. Der Bericht hebt drei Haupttrends hervor: Erstens, während die Federal Reserve voraussichtlich ihren Zinssenkungszyklus fortsetzen wird, verschieben sich die Erwartungen an Zinssenkungen aufgrund einer stärkeren Wirtschaft und hartnäckigeren Inflationsprognosen. Historische Analysen zeigen, dass Aktien in der Regel in den 12 Monaten nach der ersten Senkung während nicht-rezessionärer Perioden um +20% zulegen.
Zweitens untersucht der Bericht, wie die Politik der neuen Regierung die Märkte beeinflussen könnte, mit potenziellen positiven Effekten durch Steuererleichterungen und Deregulierung, aber auch mit Unsicherheiten hinsichtlich der inflationsfördernden Auswirkungen von Handels- und Einwanderungspolitiken. Drittens, trotz der aufeinanderfolgenden Gewinne von 20% des S&P 500 in 2023 (26,3%) und 2024 (25%), deutet die historische Datenlage auf eine anhaltend positive Leistung hin, mit einem durchschnittlichen Gewinn von 12% nach ähnlichen Vorkommnissen seit 1950.
- Historical data shows stocks gain average 12% following back-to-back 20% yearly returns
- S&P 500 achieved strong consecutive gains: 25% in 2024 and 26.3% in 2023
- Stocks historically perform well during rate cutting cycles with +20% gain in non-recession periods
- Federal Reserve projects stickier inflation through 2025
- Market faces uncertainty from potential inflationary impact of trade and immigration policies
- High likelihood of double-digit market correction (occurs in >50% of calendar years)
Insights
Historical data showing
The report's analysis of policy uncertainty highlights both potential tailwinds (tax cuts, deregulation) and headwinds (trade and immigration policy impacts on inflation) that could influence market dynamics. This balanced perspective helps frame the complex interplay between policy decisions and market performance.
The consecutive years of robust market performance (
Portfolio implications are significant - while the overall outlook remains positive, the emphasis on diversification is important given the potential for market corrections. The intersection of monetary policy shifts, political transitions and historical market patterns suggests a complex but manageable investment landscape for 2025.
The quarter’s report highlights expectations for rate cuts, how the new
Key insights include:
The Fed is supportive, but rate cut expectations are shifting: The Federal Reserve’s summary of economic projections released in December indicated that the central bank expects both a stronger economy and stickier inflation as we move through 2025. While this may result in a more cautious approach to monetary easing, the cutting cycle is expected to continue. Analysis by
Policy uncertainty could impact the economy and markets: The latest report breaks down the possible tailwinds and headwinds that the incoming administration could bring to both the economy and markets. Since the election, financial markets have been largely focused on the potential tailwinds, namely tax cuts and deregulation, optimistic that they could stimulate economic growth and boost corporate earnings. However, there is lingering uncertainty about the potential inflationary impact of the proposed trade and immigration policy. Although decisions made in
Back-to-back
“Heading into the new year, many investors are seeking guidance on how to navigate markets and thoughtfully position their portfolios in what’s shaping up to be a dynamic environment. 2025 is poised to bring about both investment opportunities, as well as some challenges, so it’s a good time for investors to ensure portfolios are adequately diversified to weather any potential bouts of volatility – especially given relative asset class performance over the last two years,” said Jayson Bronchetti, Chief Investment Officer at Lincoln Financial.
More insights from Lincoln Financial and its network of asset management partners can be found on the Market Insights page.
About Lincoln Financial
Lincoln Financial helps people confidently plan for their vision of a successful financial future. As of December 31, 2023, approximately 17 million customers trust our guidance and solutions across four core businesses – annuities, life insurance, group protection, and retirement plan services. As of September 30, 2024, the company has
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Source: Lincoln Financial
FAQ
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