ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Starts Jump as VA Moratorium Ends; Wildfire Delinquencies Emerge
ICE's January 2025 mortgage performance data shows mixed trends in the U.S. housing market. The total loan delinquency rate decreased to 3.47%, down 24 basis points month-over-month but 10 basis points higher than last year. Foreclosure activity increased significantly, with starts jumping 30% to 40,000 and sales rising 25% to 6,300, primarily due to the VA foreclosure moratorium expiration.
The report highlights emerging challenges from natural disasters, with 680 homeowners in Los Angeles wildfire areas missing January payments, and potentially 3,300 borrowers at risk for February. Hurricane-related delinquencies decreased from 58,000 to 41,000. The monthly prepayment rate fell to 0.48%, its lowest in nearly a year, affected by higher rates and seasonal slowdown in home sales.
I dati sulle performance dei mutui di ICE di gennaio 2025 mostrano tendenze miste nel mercato immobiliare statunitense. Il tasso totale di insolvenza sui prestiti è diminuito al 3,47%, in calo di 24 punti base rispetto al mese precedente, ma superiore di 10 punti base rispetto all'anno scorso. L'attività di pignoramento è aumentata significativamente, con gli avvii che sono saliti del 30% a 40.000 e le vendite aumentate del 25% a 6.300, principalmente a causa della scadenza del divieto di pignoramento VA.
Il rapporto evidenzia le sfide emergenti derivanti da disastri naturali, con 680 proprietari di casa nelle aree colpite dagli incendi di Los Angeles che hanno saltato i pagamenti di gennaio, e potenzialmente 3.300 mutuatari a rischio per febbraio. Le insolvenze legate agli uragani sono diminuite da 58.000 a 41.000. Il tasso di prepagamento mensile è sceso al 0,48%, il più basso in quasi un anno, influenzato da tassi più elevati e dal rallentamento stagionale delle vendite di case.
Los datos de rendimiento hipotecario de ICE de enero de 2025 muestran tendencias mixtas en el mercado de vivienda de EE. UU. La tasa total de morosidad de préstamos disminuyó al 3.47%, bajando 24 puntos básicos mes a mes, pero 10 puntos básicos más alta que el año pasado. La actividad de ejecuciones hipotecarias aumentó significativamente, con los inicios saltando un 30% a 40,000 y las ventas aumentando un 25% a 6,300, principalmente debido a la expiración de la moratoria de ejecuciones hipotecarias del VA.
El informe destaca los desafíos emergentes de los desastres naturales, con 680 propietarios de vivienda en áreas de incendios en Los Ángeles que no realizaron sus pagos de enero, y potencialmente 3,300 prestatarios en riesgo para febrero. Las morosidades relacionadas con huracanes disminuyeron de 58,000 a 41,000. La tasa de prepago mensual cayó al 0.48%, su nivel más bajo en casi un año, afectada por tasas más altas y la desaceleración estacional en las ventas de viviendas.
ICE의 2025년 1월 주택담보대출 성과 데이터는 미국 주택 시장에서 혼합된 추세를 보여줍니다. 총 대출 연체율은 3.47%로 감소했으며, 전월 대비 24bp 하락했지만 작년보다 10bp 높습니다. 압류 활동이 크게 증가했습니다, 시작 건수가 30% 증가하여 40,000건에 이르고, 판매는 25% 증가하여 6,300건에 달했으며, 이는 주로 VA 압류 금지 조치의 종료로 인한 것입니다.
보고서는 자연 재해로 인한 새로운 도전을 강조하며, 680명의 주택 소유자가 로스앤젤레스 산불 지역에서 1월 지급을 놓쳤고, 2월에는 3,300명의 차용자가 위험에 처해 있을 수 있습니다. 허리케인 관련 연체는 58,000건에서 41,000건으로 감소했습니다. 월간 선지급률은 0.48%로 떨어져 거의 1년 만에 최저치를 기록했으며, 이는 높은 금리와 주택 판매의 계절적 둔화에 영향을 받았습니다.
Les données de performance hypothécaire d'ICE de janvier 2025 montrent des tendances mixtes sur le marché du logement américain. Le taux total de délinquance sur les prêts a diminué à 3,47%, en baisse de 24 points de base par rapport au mois précédent, mais supérieur de 10 points de base par rapport à l'année dernière. L'activité de saisie a considérablement augmenté, avec un bond de 30 % des mises en chantier à 40 000 et des ventes en hausse de 25 % à 6 300, principalement en raison de l'expiration du moratoire sur les saisies VA.
Le rapport met en lumière les défis émergents liés aux catastrophes naturelles, avec 680 propriétaires dans les zones touchées par les incendies de forêt à Los Angeles n'ayant pas effectué leurs paiements de janvier, et potentiellement 3 300 emprunteurs à risque pour février. Les délinquances liées aux ouragans ont diminué de 58 000 à 41 000. Le taux de remboursement anticipé mensuel est tombé à 0,48%, son niveau le plus bas depuis près d'un an, affecté par des taux plus élevés et un ralentissement saisonnier des ventes de maisons.
Die Hypothekenleistungsdaten von ICE für Januar 2025 zeigen gemischte Trends auf dem US-Wohnungsmarkt. Die Gesamtzahl der Darlehensausfälle sank auf 3,47%, was einem Rückgang von 24 Basispunkten im Vergleich zum Vormonat entspricht, aber 10 Basispunkte höher ist als im Vorjahr. Die Zwangsvollstreckungsaktivitäten nahmen erheblich zu, mit einem Anstieg der Neueröffnungen um 30% auf 40.000 und einem Anstieg der Verkäufe um 25% auf 6.300, hauptsächlich aufgrund des Ablaufs des VA-Zwangsvollstreckungsstopps.
Der Bericht hebt die aufkommenden Herausforderungen durch Naturkatastrophen hervor, wobei 680 Hausbesitzer in den von Waldbränden betroffenen Gebieten von Los Angeles ihre Zahlungen im Januar versäumten, und potenziell 3.300 Kreditnehmer im Februar gefährdet sind. Die mit Hurrikanen verbundenen Ausfälle gingen von 58.000 auf 41.000 zurück. Die monatliche Vorlaufquote fiel auf 0,48%, den niedrigsten Wert seit fast einem Jahr, beeinflusst von höheren Zinssätzen und einer saisonalen Verlangsamung im Wohnungsverkauf.
- Overall delinquency rate decreased 24 bps to 3.47%, remaining 33 bps below pre-pandemic levels
- Hurricane-related delinquencies decreased from 58,000 to 41,000 borrowers
- Foreclosure starts increased 29.82% month-over-month to 40,000
- Year-over-year delinquency rate increased by 2.83%
- Prepayment rate dropped to 0.48%, lowest in nearly a year
- New wildfire-related delinquencies emerging with 680 missed payments in January
Insights
The January 2025 mortgage performance data from ICE presents a complex picture of the U.S. housing market's health, with several critical developments warranting attention. The 24 basis point decline in delinquencies to 3.47% appears positive at first glance, but deeper analysis reveals underlying concerns.
The most significant development is the 29.82% surge in foreclosure starts to 40,000, primarily triggered by the VA foreclosure moratorium expiration. This sharp increase, coupled with a 24.82% rise in foreclosure sales, suggests a potential wave of distressed properties entering the market. The timing is particularly noteworthy as it coincides with elevated interest rates and reduced home buying activity, potentially pressuring property values in affected areas.
The emergence of wildfire-related delinquencies in Los Angeles introduces a new risk factor to the mortgage landscape. While the immediate impact affects 680 homeowners, the potential exposure to 3,300 borrowers in February represents a concerning trend. Historical data shows that natural disaster-related delinquencies often have a longer recovery timeline compared to economic-driven defaults, particularly when multiple events occur in succession, as evidenced by the still-present hurricane-related delinquencies affecting 41,000 borrowers.
The prepayment rate's decline to 0.48%, marking a 12-month low, reflects both cyclical and structural market changes. This metric's 16.13% month-over-month decrease indicates significantly reduced refinancing activity and slower home sales, typical for January but amplified by current market conditions. The 21.71% year-over-year increase in prepayment rates, however, suggests some underlying strength in certain market segments, despite current challenges.
The total number of properties either delinquent or in foreclosure stands at 2,091,000, representing a substantial portion of ICE's monitored mortgage universe. While this figure shows a month-over-month improvement with 117,000 fewer affected properties, the year-over-year increase of 70,000 properties signals persistent stress in the housing market that could impact mortgage servicers, investors, and property values in affected regions.
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Delinquencies fell 24 basis points (bps) to
3.47% in January; that’s 10 bps higher than last year, but 33 bps below pre-pandemic levels -
Foreclosure starts jumped by
30% and sales rose by25% in January – driven by an expiration in the VA foreclosure moratorium – with active inventory rising by7% in the month -
While the number of borrowers past due as a result of last year’s hurricanes has fallen from 58K to 41K in recent months, the financial impact from the recent
Los Angeles wildfires is emerging -
An estimated 680 homeowners in the path of the
Los Angeles wildfires missed their January mortgage payment, and ICE daily mortgage performance data through Feb. 17 suggests as many as 3,300 borrowers may be at risk of missing their February payment -
Prepayment activity (SMM) fell to
0.48% in January, its lowest level in nearly a year, driven by the combination of modestly higher rates and the typical seasonal slowdown in home sale activity
Data as of Jan. 31, 2025
Total
Month-over-month change: -
Year-over-year change:
Total
Month-over-month change:
Year-over-year change: -
Total
Month-over-month change
Year-over-year change:
Monthly prepayment rate (SMM):
Month-over-month change: -
Year-over-year change:
Foreclosure sales: 6,300
Month-over-month change:
Year-over-year change: -
Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 1,885,000
Month-over-month change: -131,000
Year-over-year change: 82,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: 540,000
Month-over-month change: -1,000
Year-over-year change: 70,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: 206,000
Month-over-month change: 14,000
Year-over-year change: -13,000
Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure: 2,091,000
Month-over-month change: -117,000
Year-over-year change: 70,000
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Top 5 States by 90+ Days Delinquent Percentage |
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Bottom 5 States by 12-Month Change in Non-Current* Percentage |
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*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.
Notes:
1) Totals are extrapolated based on ICE’s loan-level database of mortgage assets.
2) All whole numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand, except foreclosure starts and sales, which are rounded to the nearest hundred.
The company will provide a more in-depth review of this data in its monthly Mortgage Monitor report, which includes an analysis of data supplemented by detailed charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations. The Mortgage Monitor report will be available online at https://mortgagetech.ice.com/resources/data-reports by March 3, 2025.
For more information about gaining access to ICE’s loan-level database, please send an email to ICE-MortgageMonitor@ice.com.
About Intercontinental Exchange
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE) is a Fortune 500 company that designs, builds and operates digital networks that connect people to opportunity. We provide financial technology and data services across major asset classes helping our customers access mission-critical workflow tools that increase transparency and efficiency. ICE’s futures, equity, and options exchanges – including the New York Stock Exchange – and clearing houses help people invest, raise capital and manage risk. We offer some of the world’s largest markets to trade and clear energy and environmental products. Our fixed income, data services and execution capabilities provide information, analytics and platforms that help our customers streamline processes and capitalize on opportunities. At ICE Mortgage Technology, we are transforming
Trademarks of ICE and/or its affiliates include Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, ICE block design, NYSE and New York Stock Exchange. Information regarding additional trademarks and intellectual property rights of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. and/or its affiliates is located here. Key Information Documents for certain products covered by the EU Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Products Regulation can be accessed on the relevant exchange website under the heading “Key Information Documents (KIDS).”
Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 – Statements in this press release regarding ICE's business that are not historical facts are "forward-looking statements" that involve risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of additional risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see ICE's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, including, but not limited to, the risk factors ICE's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, as filed with the SEC on February 6, 2025.
Category: Mortgage Technology
ICE-CORP
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ICE Media Contact
Brad Kuhn
brad.kuhn@ice.com
+1 (904) 248-6341
media@ice.com
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Source: Intercontinental Exchange
FAQ
What caused the spike in ICE's reported foreclosure starts in January 2025?
How many properties are currently delinquent according to ICE's January 2025 data?
What is the impact of Los Angeles wildfires on mortgage payments according to ICE's data?
How has ICE's reported prepayment rate (SMM) changed in January 2025?
What is the current foreclosure inventory rate according to ICE's January 2025 report?
