ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices Cool Heading Into the Spring Home-Buying Season, Led by Condos

Rhea-AI Summary

ICE's April 2025 Mortgage Monitor Report reveals a significant cooling in home prices at the start of the spring buying season. The enhanced ICE Home Price Index (HPI) shows annual home price growth decelerating to 2.2% in March, with 90% of U.S. markets experiencing slower growth compared to three months prior.

Most notably, condo prices decreased annually for the first time in over a decade, with Florida markets experiencing the sharpest declines: North Port (-9.4%), Lakeland (-7%), Tampa (-5.8%), Orlando (-4.4%), Jacksonville (-4.4%), and Miami (-2.8%). The cooling trend is attributed to:

• 27% increase in inventory levels year-over-year
• Stabilized mortgage rates between 6.6%-6.7%
• Surge in multifamily completions nationwide

Florida's market faces unique challenges including back-to-back hurricanes, rising property insurance costs, insurability issues, slowing migration, and new construction impacts. Similar condo price pressures are observed in other markets like Little Rock (-6%), Austin (-5.6%), and Denver (-3.9%).

Positive

• 95% of U.S. markets show improved housing affordability compared to previous year
• Inventory levels increased significantly by 27% year-over-year
• Mortgage rates have stabilized between 6.6%-6.7%

Negative

• Annual home price growth decelerated to 2.2% in March
• Condo prices declined for the first time in over a decade
• Florida markets experiencing significant price drops up to -9.4%
• Rising property insurance costs and insurability challenges in Florida
• Pressure from surge in multifamily completions affecting condo prices nationwide

Insights

Real Estate Economist

The latest ICE HPI data signals a significant shift in the housing market with broad-based price deceleration. Annual home price growth cooling to 2.2% in March represents continued moderation from the double-digit appreciation we've seen in recent years. What's particularly notable is the condo segment reversal – the first year-over-year price decline in over a decade is a meaningful inflection point.

The 27% increase in inventory levels compared to last year is the primary catalyst driving this cooling. Markets operate on supply-demand fundamentals, and this inventory expansion is finally giving buyers more options and negotiating power. The geographic distribution reveals important regional patterns – Florida markets experiencing the sharpest condo price declines (-9.4% in North Port, -7% in Lakeland) reflects unique regional pressures including insurance challenges and hurricane impacts.

This isn't just a Florida phenomenon. The condo weakness extending to markets like Austin (-5.6%) and Denver (-3.9%) indicates broader structural issues, particularly the surge in multifamily completions creating supply pressure. The affordability improvements noted in 95% of markets represent a silver lining for prospective buyers who've been sidelined by affordability constraints. The stabilization of mortgage rates in the 6.6-6.7% range hasn't been enough to prevent this cooling, suggesting we've reached a market equilibrium point where price adjustments were necessary.

Financial Analyst

ICE's enhanced Home Price Index reveals a housing market adjustment that carries mixed implications for investors across multiple sectors. The cooling to 2.2% annual growth represents normalization rather than collapse – still positive but significantly below inflation, indicating real price depreciation.

The unprecedented condo price contraction deserves particular attention as it may foreshadow broader market behavior. Condos typically show greater price volatility during market transitions, functioning as the housing market's canary in the coal mine. The regional concentration of price declines suggests targeted risk exposure rather than systemic issues, with Florida's unique insurance and climate challenges creating localized pressure.

For residential REITs and homebuilders, this environment requires strategic recalibration. The 27% inventory increase signals potential margin pressure, particularly for builders competing with growing resale inventory. Mortgage originators face a mixed outlook – while rate stabilization provides some operational certainty, the cooling price environment may reduce refinancing opportunities.

For ICE specifically, their enhanced data capabilities demonstrated in this report actually strengthen their competitive position regardless of market direction. Their ability to deliver same-month trends with mid-month updates positions them advantageously against competitors. The addition of MLS closing data and daily loan-level servicer information enhances their value proposition in the data services sector, particularly for non-disclosure states where accurate pricing data has historically been challenging.

Early look at March HPI data shows condo prices fell year over year for the first time in more than a decade

ATLANTA & NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), a leading global provider of technology and data, today released its April 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report, which reveals a notable cooling in home price growth as the 2025 spring home buying season begins. According to an early look at March data from the enhanced ICE Home Price Index (HPI), annual home price growth has decelerated to 2.2%.

The newly enhanced ICE HPI now provides an early look at same-month home price trends and a mid-month update, delivering insights both more frequently and weeks ahead of other industry benchmarks. Additionally, ICE has added new datasets and enhanced the index models to include MLS closing data and daily loan-level servicer-contributed information, which enables it to provide more accurate pricing with data from non-disclosure states.

“Analysis of ICE HPI data shows a broad-based cooling of home prices, with 90% percent of U.S. markets experiencing slower home price growth compared to three months ago,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research for ICE. “This trend is being driven by improved inventory levels, which are up 27% over last year, and stabilized mortgage rates, which dipped below 6.6% in early March and have been holding in the 6.6%-6.7% range.”

“Early March data shows condo prices dropping for the first time in more than a decade, with the largest impacts in the Sunbelt, most notably in Florida,” remarked Walden. “While falling condo prices can erode equity levels among existing condo owners, they also afford modest relief to those looking to prospective home buyers. In fact, 95% of U.S. markets have experienced at least slight improvements in affordability compared to a year ago.”

Key findings from the April Mortgage Monitor report:

• Home prices are softening across the country: Annual home price growth slowed to +2.7% in February, with early data for March showing further cooling to +2.2%.
• Condo prices decreased annually for the first time in more than a decade: Condo prices lagged single family price growth in 97 of the 100 largest U.S. markets and were down in more than a third of those markets.
• Florida condo prices dropped the most: Markets such as North Port (-9.4%) and Lakeland (-7%) saw significant YoY price slips, with other markets, including Tampa (-5.8%), Orlando (-4.4%), Jacksonville (-4.4%) and Miami (-2.8%) not too far behind.
• Florida’s homeowners face some unique challenges: Back-to-back hurricanes, combined with rising property insurance costs, insurability challenges, slowing migration and new construction have combined to lower home prices in most major Florida markets.
• Condo challenges aren’t limited to Florida: A surge in multifamily completions has created price pressure across the country, especially in metro regions such as Little Rock, Ark. (-6%), Austin, Texas (-5.6%), and Denver (-3.9%).

Further detail, including charts, can be found in this month’s Mortgage Monitor.

About the ICE Home Price Index

With data from more than 20,000 ZIP codes, the ICE HPI delivers a granular price picture for all single-family property types and conditions, including short sales and lender-owned real estate. It is compiled using a variety of ICE data sources – including its MLS, public records, and servicer-contributed, loan-level data – to provide a highly accurate and reliable resource for market analysis.

About Mortgage Monitor

ICE manages the nation’s leading repository of loan-level residential mortgage data and performance information covering the majority of the overall market, including tens of millions of loans across the spectrum of credit products and more than 160 million historical records. The combined insight of the ICE Home Price Index and Collateral Analytics’ home price and real estate data provides one of the most complete, accurate and timely measures of home prices available, covering 95% of U.S. residential properties down to the zip code level. In addition, the company maintains one of the most robust public property records databases available, covering 99.9% of the U.S. population and households from more than 3,100 counties.

ICE’s research experts carefully analyze this data to produce a summary supplemented by dozens of charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations for the monthly Mortgage Monitor Report. To review the full report, visit:
https://mortgagetech.ice.com/resources/data-reports.

About Intercontinental Exchange

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE) is a Fortune 500 company that designs, builds, and operates digital networks that connect people to opportunity. We provide financial technology and data services across major asset classes helping our customers access mission-critical workflow tools that increase transparency and efficiency. ICE’s futures, equity, and options exchanges -- including the New York Stock Exchange -- and clearing houses help people invest, raise capital and manage risk. We offer some of the world’s largest markets to trade and clear energy and environmental products. Our fixed income, data services and execution capabilities provide information, analytics and platforms that help our customers streamline processes and capitalize on opportunities. At ICE Mortgage Technology, we are transforming U.S. housing finance, from initial consumer engagement through loan production, closing, registration and the long-term servicing relationship. Together, ICE transforms, streamlines, and automates industries to connect our customers to opportunity.

Trademarks of ICE and/or its affiliates include Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, ICE block design, NYSE and New York Stock Exchange. Information regarding additional trademarks and intellectual property rights of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. and/or its affiliates is located here. Key Information Documents for certain products covered by the EU Packaged Retail and Insurance-based Investment Products Regulation can be accessed on the relevant exchange website under the heading “Key Information Documents (KIDS).”

Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 -- Statements in this press release regarding ICE's business that are not historical facts are "forward-looking statements" that involve risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of additional risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see ICE's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, including, but not limited to, the risk factors in ICE's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, as filed with the SEC on February 6, 2025.

Source: Intercontinental Exchange

Category: Mortgage Technology

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ICE Media Contact:

Johnna Szegda

johnna.szegda@ice.com

+1 (404) 798-1155

ICE Investor Contact:

Katia Gonzalez

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Source: Intercontinental Exchange

FAQ

What is the current home price growth rate according to ICE's March 2025 HPI data?

According to ICE's March 2025 data, annual home price growth has decelerated to 2.2%, showing a continued cooling trend in the market.

How much have condo prices declined in Florida's major markets in 2025?

Florida condo prices showed significant declines: North Port (-9.4%), Lakeland (-7%), Tampa (-5.8%), Orlando (-4.4%), Jacksonville (-4.4%), and Miami (-2.8%).

What factors are causing the housing market cooldown according to ICE's April 2025 report?

The cooldown is driven by a 27% year-over-year increase in inventory levels and stabilized mortgage rates between 6.6%-6.7% in March 2025.

Which challenges are specifically affecting Florida's housing market in 2025?

Florida faces multiple challenges: back-to-back hurricanes, rising property insurance costs, insurability challenges, slowing migration, and pressure from new construction.

How widespread is the home price cooling trend according to ICE's latest data?

90% of U.S. markets are experiencing slower home price growth compared to three months ago, with 95% showing improved affordability compared to last year.