Housing Sector Awaits Improvement in Affordability; Modest Recession Still Expected
Fannie Mae forecasts a modest recession beginning in early 2023, driven by elevated mortgage rates and home prices constraining housing activity. The Economic and Strategic Research Group predicts a 0.6% decline in GDP growth for 2023 and a cumulative 6.7% drop in home prices over two years, although they do not foresee a repeat of the Great Financial Crisis. Existing home sales are expected to remain depressed due to affordability issues, while new home sales may outperform. Economic signals indicate a potential soft landing, although a tight labor market could lead to prolonged elevated rates by the Federal Reserve.
- Predicted cumulative 6.7% home price decline may improve affordability over time.
- New home sales expected to outperform existing home sales due to constrained activity.
- Forecasts suggest a modest recession beginning in early 2023.
- GDP growth forecast for 2023 is negative 0.6%, indicating economic contraction.
- High mortgage rates and home prices limit housing activity and sales.
Elevated Mortgage Rates and Home Prices Expected to Continue to Limit Housing Activity
Further, the ESR Group expects a cumulative 6.7 percent home price decline over the next two years as housing affordability remains unsustainably stretched. A repeat of the Great Financial Crisis is not expected, however, as far fewer borrowers are facing interest rate shocks, loan workout and modification programs are more robust, and aggregate residential real estate and the broader financial system are substantially less leveraged compared to the 2006-2008 period. Instead, housing affordability is forecast to gradually improve over the longer term due to a combination of home price declines, modestly lower mortgage rates, and stronger-than-usual nominal income growth. Ongoing affordability challenges and the "lock-in effect" -- in which many current homeowners have a financial disincentive to list their homes due to the higher mortgage rate environment -- have the ESR Group expecting existing home sales activity to remain constrained, creating an avenue for the new home sales trend to comparatively outperform existing home sales in coming years.
"There are economic signals pointing to recession but also signs that a 'soft landing' may be in the offing," said
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