Cushman & Wakefield Releases Mid-Year Macro Outlook for Commercial Real Estate

Rhea-AI Summary

Cushman & Wakefield released their mid-year Macro Outlook report for commercial real estate, highlighting the impact of persistent inflation and Federal Reserve policies in 2024. The report identifies mixed conditions across various sectors. Office spaces continue to rationalize, with net absorption expected to be negative. Capital markets are expected to see moderate NOI growth and cautious investor behavior. The industrial sector faces new supply challenges, with vacancy expected to peak in early 2025. Retail demand remains strong, driven by a robust pipeline of store openings and diversified tenant mixes. Despite challenges, some asset classes show resilience and potential for growth beyond 2025.

Positive

• NOI expected to grow by 1.5% to 2% this year and next, accelerating to 4.5% to 7.5% in following years.
• Industrial sector absorption projected to recover to typical demand run rates by 2026.
• Retail sector showing strong demand with 850 more store openings planned than closures year-to-date.
• High-quality retail locations remain scarce, allowing owners to raise rents.

Negative

• Office net absorption projected to be -63 million square feet this year and -7 million square feet next year.
• Manufacturing and transportation sectors described as anemic or recessionary.
• Industrial vacancy expected to peak in early 2025 at 6.7%.
• Rent growth in retail sector expected to slow to 2.9% from 2024-2026.

Insights

Financial Analyst

The current macroeconomic environment poses challenges for the commercial real estate market, with inflation and higher interest rates squeezing both consumers and businesses. This creates a mixed outlook for different real estate sectors. The office sector continues to experience a significant shift due to ongoing hybrid work trends, leading to negative net absorption and high vacancy rates in lower-tier buildings. Investors should be cautious about allocating funds to office assets, especially those not within the top-tier category. The capital markets face a slow recovery, with NOI growing modestly in the short term but potentially accelerating in the longer term. Despite higher cap rates and cautious investor behavior, long-term returns could reach double digits by 2026.

Debt maturities and liquidity needs may drive sellers to meet market prices, aiding in price discovery and stabilization. The industrial sector will see some short-term vacancy increases due to new supply but is expected to stabilize by mid-decade, driven by e-commerce growth and a significant drop in new supply post-2024. The retail sector appears more robust, with strong demand and limited new supply, positioning well-located retail properties favorably for rent growth. Investors should consider the diversified tenant mix and the post-pandemic shift toward service-oriented spending as positive factors for retail investments.

Short-term measures: Investors should focus on sectors with strong fundamentals such as industrial and certain retail segments while being cautious about lower-tier office assets. Long-term, the outlook appears more optimistic, especially for diversified and high-quality assets.

Market Research Analyst

The report highlights significant market variations across different real estate sectors. The office market still grapples with the aftermath of the pandemic and the rise of hybrid work, leading to negative net absorption and high vacancies in outdated buildings. This necessitates a focus on top-tier, Class A office buildings that demonstrate low vacancy rates.

In contrast, the industrial sector is experiencing a temporary imbalance due to new supply influxes. However, with e-commerce continuing to expand, demand is projected to stabilize and grow post-2025, making it a solid long-term investment. The sector's capacity for resilience is evident from its expected vacancy peak aligning with the lowest historical vacancies.

The retail sector is seeing a resurgence in demand driven by diversified tenant mixes and a strong pipeline of store openings. The lack of new retail space supply supports higher rent growth in quality locations. Investors should note the shift towards service-oriented tenants, marking a strategic pivot post-pandemic. This sector's resilience and limited new supply create a favorable environment for stable returns.

Strategic insights: Investors would benefit from focusing on industrial and retail sectors with strong fundamentals and positive long-term growth prospects. The caution in the office sector is warranted given its slow adjustment to new work trends.

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Persistent inflation continues to influence the Federal Reserve’s decision making in 2024, amidst ongoing moderation in overall economic and labor conditions. These factors create a complex and mixed outlook for commercial real estate assets according to Cushman & Wakefield’s (NYSE: CWK) mid-year Macro Outlook report.

“Cracks are forming beneath the surface, as consumers and businesses remain under pressure from the cumulative effects of higher interest rates and inflation,” said Rebecca Rockey, Deputy Chief Economist and Global Head of Forecasting at Cushman & Wakefield. “Some sectors have been, or are in, contraction mode. The manufacturing and transportation sectors have been anemic, if not recessionary. Job growth is concentrated in lagging sectors like government, education and healthcare.”

Office

The rationalization of office space usage is continuing in 2024, and consistent with Cushman & Wakefield’s prior outlook, with net absorption projected to be negative this year at -63 million square feet (msf) and -7 msf next year. Demand is expected to average 20-25 msf per year as we go into the second half of the decade.

“Although office jobs will continue to grow, office demand is still adjusting to hybrid work. We believe we are further along in that process beyond what weighted average lease terms imply, as about half the space on the sublease market has an underlying expiration date in 2028 or beyond. Occupiers have pulled forward future downsizing,” said David Smith, Head of Americas Insights.

Trifurcation remains a key theme, however, there are bright spots in the office sector, including 30% of Class A buildings that have essentially no vacancy and another 20% that have sub-15% vacancy. The bottom 10% of office assets account for over 730 basis points (bps) of current vacancy, reflecting a growing weight that these highly challenged and likely obsolete buildings have on headline statistics.

Capital Markets

Investors will remain income-focused for the foreseeable future as existing debt slowly re-prices into the higher-rate environment. Fortunately for most asset classes, the NOI outlook is decent if not robust, growing by 1.5% to 2% this year and next (in a diversified portfolio) before accelerating to the 4.5% to 7.5% range in the following years.

“Despite the fact that some measured cap rates will march upwards as credit spreads normalize off higher base rates, we forecast that total unlevered returns will again reach double-digits and high-single-digits in 2026 and beyond,” said Abby Corbett, Senior Economist, Head of Investor Insights. “Buyers and sellers are growing increasingly more open to act, though both sides remain cautious and selective in the near term. Debt maturities and other liquidity-based needs should continue to motivate sellers to meet the market, thereby improving price discovery for the marketplace more broadly.”

The long-awaited distress wave will continue to disappoint opportunistic capital sitting anxiously on the sidelines, as the process unfolds at a slow, sequential, and often boring pace. In 2023, only 1.8% of total sales were distressed sales and many delinquency rates remain low or are holding steady. This is obviously not true for the office sector where expected distress is greatest—as well as for regional malls and hotels.

Industrial

While e-commerce continues to increase as a percent of retail sales, some of the pull-forward effect—firms building out sooner and faster during the pandemic—will weigh on the demand outlook for 2024 and the first half of 2025.

New supply will be a key factor driving vacancy in 2024 for most markets, as another 381 msf delivers throughout the market this year. The pipeline is dropping off significantly and is projected that only 160 msf will be delivered in 2025. From there, lower interest rates and improving fundamentals will help drive a new construction cycle. Absorption is expected to hit a trough of just over 100 msf in 2024 before roughly doubling in 2025. It is projected to return to a more typical demand run rate in 2026.

“The imbalance in supply and demand seems starker than it is—vacancy is expected to peak in early 2025 at 6.7% before starting to compress back toward 5% by the end of our five-year forecast horizon. For context, this is consistent with the lowest vacancies recorded in prior cycles, meaning this cycle is fundamentally different,” said Jason Price, Senior Director, Americas Head of Logistics & Industrial Research.

Rent growth is moderating on par with expectations after having grown by 54% since Q4 2019. Cushman & Wakefield projects rent growth will come in at 3% in 2024 and 2% in 2025 before picking back up to the mid-single digits.

Retail

Demand for retail space remains robust, in part because of a strong pipeline of store openings by large retailers. Year-to-date there have been roughly 850 more store openings planned than closures.

“The tenant mix continues to diversify, limiting the downside risk of sector-specific weakness. Beyond traditional retailers, consumer service providers—including restaurants, education/healthcare, beauty and wellness—are leasing more space in retail centers. Consumers will continue to rotate back to service-oriented spending that has lagged post-pandemic, benefiting retail centers featuring these offerings,” said James Bohnaker, Senior Economist.

The lack of new supply is a key aspect of the outlook. With less than 12 msf feet of retail space under construction, and over 4.3 billion square feet of inventory, high-quality retail locations will remain scarce. New supply is not expected to ramp up to its 2010-2019 average until 2027, at the earliest.

Owners of well-located shopping centers will continue to have leverage to raise rents given the demand and supply dynamics, although rent growth is poised to slow over the next several years. After peaking at 5.0% in 2022, rent growth will average 2.9% from 2024-2026.

About Cushman & Wakefield

Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global commercial real estate services firm for property owners and occupiers with approximately 52,000 employees in nearly 400 offices and 60 countries. In 2023, the firm reported revenue of $9.5 billion across its core services of property, facilities and project management, leasing, capital markets, and valuation and other services. It also receives numerous industry and business accolades for its award-winning culture and commitment to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI), sustainability and more. For additional information, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240620409224/en/

Mike Boonshoft

michael.boonshoft@cushwake.com

Source: Cushman & Wakefield

FAQ

What are the key challenges in the office sector according to Cushman & Wakefield's mid-year Macro Outlook report?

The key challenges in the office sector include negative net absorption projected at -63 million square feet this year and -7 million square feet next year, as well as adjustments to hybrid work models.

How is the industrial sector expected to perform in the coming years as per Cushman & Wakefield's report?

The industrial sector is expected to see new supply challenges with a peak vacancy rate of 6.7% in early 2025, but absorption is projected to return to typical demand rates by 2026.

What is the outlook for NOI growth in capital markets according to Cushman & Wakefield?

The NOI is expected to grow by 1.5% to 2% this year and next, with acceleration to 4.5% to 7.5% in the following years.

How is the retail sector performing in Cushman & Wakefield's mid-year Macro Outlook report?

The retail sector is performing robustly with a strong pipeline of store openings, diversified tenant mixes, and high-quality locations remaining scarce. However, rent growth is expected to slow to 2.9% from 2024-2026.