Farmer sentiment reaches lowest levels since 2016 as income expectations weaken
The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer recorded its lowest readings since March 2016 in September, with the barometer falling 12 points to 88. The Index of Future Expectations dropped 14 points to 94, while the Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 76. Farmers expressed increasing concerns about commodity prices, input costs, agricultural trade prospects, and the potential impact of the upcoming election on their operations.
Key findings include:
- 34% of farmers cited input prices as their primary concern
- 33% pointed to lower output prices as their main worry
- Only 26% expect agricultural exports to rise over the next five years
- 78% of producers are concerned about post-election policy changes affecting their farms
- The Farm Financial Performance Index fell to 68 in September
- The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index dropped below 100 for the first time since 2020
Il Barometro dell'Economia Agricola dell'Università Purdue/CME Group ha registrato i suoi livelli più bassi da marzo 2016 a settembre, con il barometro che è sceso di 12 punti a 88. L'Indice delle Aspettative Future è diminuito di 14 punti a 94, mentre l'Indice delle Condizioni Attuali è sceso di 7 punti a 76. Gli agricoltori hanno espresso crescenti preoccupazioni riguardo ai prezzi delle materie prime, ai costi di produzione, alle prospettive del commercio agricolo e all'impatto potenziale delle prossime elezioni sulle loro attività.
I risultati chiave includono:
- Il 34% degli agricoltori ha citato i prezzi degli input come la loro preoccupazione principale
- Il 33% ha indicato i prezzi di vendita più bassi come la loro principale preoccupazione
- Solo il 26% prevede un aumento delle esportazioni agricole nei prossimi cinque anni
- Il 78% dei produttori è preoccupato per i cambiamenti politici post-elettorali che influiscono sulle loro aziende
- L'Indice delle Performance Finanziarie Agricole è sceso a 68 a settembre
- L'Indice delle Aspettative sul Valore dei Terreni Agricoli a Breve Termine è sceso sotto 100 per la prima volta dal 2020
El Barómetro de Economía Agrícola de la Universidad de Purdue/CME Group registró sus niveles más bajos desde marzo de 2016 en septiembre, con el barómetro cayendo 12 puntos a 88. El Índice de Expectativas Futuras disminuyó 14 puntos a 94, mientras que el Índice de Condiciones Actuales cayó 7 puntos a 76. Los agricultores expresaron crecientes preocupaciones sobre los precios de las materias primas, los costos de insumos, las perspectivas del comercio agrícola y el impacto potencial de las próximas elecciones en sus operaciones.
Los hallazgos clave incluyen:
- El 34% de los agricultores citó los precios de los insumos como su principal preocupación
- El 33% señaló los precios de salida más bajos como su principal preocupación
- Solo el 26% espera que las exportaciones agrícolas aumenten en los próximos cinco años
- El 78% de los productores está preocupado por los cambios de políticas post-electorales que afecten sus granjas
- El Índice de Desempeño Financiero Agrícola cayó a 68 en septiembre
- El Índice de Expectativas del Valor de la Tierra Agrícola a Corto Plazo cayó por debajo de 100 por primera vez desde 2020
퍼듀 대학교/CME 그룹의 농업 경제 기상도는 9월에 2016년 3월 이후 최저치를 기록했습니다, 기상도가 12포인트 하락하여 88이 되었습니다. 미래 기대 지수는 14포인트 떨어져 94로, 현재 조건 지수는 7포인트 하락하여 76으로 나타났습니다. 농부들은 원자재 가격, 생산비, 농업 무역 전망, 그리고 다가오는 선거가 그들의 운영에 미칠 잠재적인 영향에 대해 우려를 표명했습니다.
주요 발견 사항은 다음과 같습니다:
- 농부의 34%가 입력 가격을 주요 우려 사항으로 언급했습니다
- 33%는 생산 가격 하락을 주요 걱정 사항으로 지적했습니다
- 앞으로 5년 동안 농업 수출이 증가할 것이라고 예상하는 농부는 단 26%에 불과했습니다
- 78%의 생산자는 선거 후 정책 변화가 자신의 농장에 영향을 미칠 것에 대해 우려하고 있습니다
- 농업 재정 성과 지수가 9월에 68로 떨어졌습니다
- 단기 농지 가치 기대 지수가 2020년 이후 처음으로 100 이하로 떨어졌습니다
Le Baromètre de l'Économie Agricole de l'Université Purdue/Groupe CME a enregistré ses niveaux les plus bas depuis mars 2016 en septembre, avec une baisse de 12 points à 88. L'Indice des Attentes Futures a chuté de 14 points à 94, tandis que l'Indice des Conditions Actuelles a baissé de 7 points à 76. Les agriculteurs ont exprimé des préoccupations croissantes concernant les prix des matières premières, les coûts des intrants, les perspectives commerciales agricoles et l'impact potentiel des prochaines élections sur leurs activités.
Les résultats clés incluent :
- 34% des agriculteurs ont cité les prix des intrants comme leur principale préoccupation
- 33% ont souligné la baisse des prix de sortie comme leur plus grande inquiétude
- Seuls 26% s'attendent à une augmentation des exportations agricoles au cours des cinq prochaines années
- 78% des producteurs sont préoccupés par les changements politiques post-électoraux qui pourraient affecter leurs fermes
- L'Indice de Performance Financière Agricole est tombé à 68 en septembre
- L'Indice des Attentes de Valeur des Terres Agricoles à Court Terme est tombé en dessous de 100 pour la première fois depuis 2020
Das Purdue University/CME Group Agrarwirtschaftsbarometer verzeichnete im September seine niedrigsten Werte seit März 2016, da der Barometer um 12 Punkte auf 88 fiel. Der Index der zukünftigen Erwartungen sank um 14 Punkte auf 94, während der Index der aktuellen Bedingungen um 7 Punkte auf 76 fiel. Die Landwirte äußerten zunehmende Bedenken hinsichtlich der Rohstoffpreise, der Produktionskosten, der Handelsmöglichkeiten in der Landwirtschaft und der potenziellen Auswirkungen der bevorstehenden Wahlen auf ihre Betriebe.
Wichtige Erkenntnisse umfassen:
- 34% der Landwirte nannten die Preise für Betriebsmittel als ihr Hauptanliegen
- 33% verwiesen auf sinkende Erzeugerpreise als ihre größte Sorge
- Nur 26% erwarten, dass die landwirtschaftlichen Exporte in den nächsten fünf Jahren steigen werden
- 78% der Produzenten sind besorgt über politische Veränderungen nach den Wahlen, die ihre Betriebe betreffen könnten
- Der Index für die finanzielle Leistung der Landwirtschaft fiel im September auf 68
- Der Index für die Erwartungen an den Wert von Agrarland in der Kurzfristigkeit fiel zum ersten Mal seit 2020 unter 100
- Cover crop usage among corn and soybean producers has increased, with 68% of users planting them on more than one-fourth of their farms
- The Farm Capital Investment Index increased by 4 points from August to a reading of 35
- Ag Economy Barometer fell 12 points to 88, its lowest level since March 2016
- Index of Future Expectations dropped 14 points to 94
- Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 76
- Only 26% of respondents expect agricultural exports to rise over the next five years
- Farm Financial Performance Index fell to 68 in September, down from 86 in September 2023
- Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index dropped by 10 points to 95, indicating more farmers expect a decline in farmland values
Insights
The significant drop in the Ag Economy Barometer to its lowest level since 2016 signals a deteriorating outlook for the agricultural sector. This pessimism is driven by multiple factors:
- Declining income expectations due to concerns over low commodity prices and high input costs
- Weak export prospects, with only
26% expecting exports to rise over the next five years - Uncertainty surrounding potential policy changes after the 2024 elections
The Farm Financial Performance Index's decline to 68 from 86 a year ago indicates worsening financial conditions for farmers. The drop in short-term farmland value expectations below 100 for the first time since 2020 suggests potential pressure on a key asset for many farmers. These factors could lead to reduced capital investments and potential consolidation in the sector. The increasing adoption of cover crops, now used on over
This report has significant implications for companies operating in the agricultural sector:
- Agribusiness firms may face reduced demand for inputs as farmers become more cost-conscious
- Equipment manufacturers could see lower sales due to the poor Farm Capital Investment Index
- Commodity traders and processors might experience volatility due to uncertain export prospects
- Financial institutions may need to reassess agricultural lending risks
The increased adoption of cover crops presents opportunities for seed companies and conservation-focused agtech firms. However, the overall negative sentiment could lead to a challenging business environment in the short to medium term. Companies in the agricultural sector should prepare for potential market contraction and focus on offering cost-effective solutions to farmers. The upcoming 2024 elections add another layer of uncertainty, with
September's survey revealed that farmers are increasingly worried about commodity prices, input costs, agricultural trade prospects and the potential impact of the upcoming election on their farm operations. When asked to identify their top concerns for the coming year, low commodity prices and high input costs were nearly tied, with
"The continued drop in the barometer reflects deepening concerns among farmers regarding expectations for farm income in 2024 and 2025," said James Mintert, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "It's notable that producer sentiment dropped back to levels last seen in 2016 when the
The Farm Financial Performance Index fell for the third consecutive month, dropping to 68 in September from 72 in August. Farmers' financial expectations have declined markedly compared to a year ago, as the index was at 86 in September 2023 — an 18-point difference. While the Farm Capital Investment Index increased by 4 points from August to a reading of 35, it sits just above its all-time low, indicating that many producers believe it is not an opportune time for making large investments.
The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index dropped by 10 points to 95. This is the first time since 2020 that the index fell below 100, indicating that more farmers are expecting a decline in farmland values over the next year than those who anticipate an increase. This month's shift from a positive to a weaker outlook is attributable to a significant decrease in the percentage of producers forecasting rising values and a rise in those who expect values to remain steady.
The September survey marks the fourth consecutive year that the barometer has included questions regarding cover crop usage among corn and soybean producers. Consistent with prior years' surveys, more than half of the respondents indicated that they currently plant cover crops on part of their farms, while an additional 1 in 5 farmers reported planting cover crops sometime in the past. Interestingly, farmers who currently use cover crops say they are devoting a larger proportion of their farm's acreage to cover crops than in the past. In 2021,
About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.
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About Purdue University
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Writer: Morgan French, mmfrench@purdue.edu
Source: James Mintert, 765-494-7004, jmintert@purdue.edu
Image Caption: Farmer sentiment reaches lowest levels since 2016 as income expectations weaken. (Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer/James Mintert)
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SOURCE CME Group
FAQ
What caused the drop in the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer in September 2024?
How did the Farm Financial Performance Index change in September 2024 compared to the previous year?
What percentage of farmers are concerned about government policy changes after the 2024 elections affecting their farms?
How has cover crop usage changed among corn and soybean producers according to the September 2024 CME Group survey?
