Farmer sentiment weakens due to cloudy trade outlook
CME Group and Purdue University's latest Ag Economy Barometer revealed a decline in farmer sentiment for June 2025, with the main index dropping 12 points to 146. The Index of Future Expectations experienced the sharpest decline, falling 18 points to 146, while the Current Conditions Index decreased slightly by 2 points to 144.
The Farm Financial Performance Index declined 5 points to 104, though remaining above 100 indicates farmers still expect stronger financial performance in 2025 compared to 2024. The Farm Capital Investment Index improved 5 points to 60, with 24% of farmers viewing it as a good time to invest, up from 19% in May.
Notable shifts in trade outlook were observed, with farmers expressing decreased optimism about agricultural exports. The percentage of producers expecting increasing exports over the next five years dropped from 52% to 41%, while those expecting declining exports rose 4 points to 16%. Additionally, concerns about tariffs' impact on farm income showed some improvement, with 45% expecting negative effects in June, down from 56% in March-April.
CME Group e l'ultimo Ag Economy Barometer dell'Università di Purdue hanno evidenziato un calo nel sentiment degli agricoltori per giugno 2025, con l'indice principale che scende di 12 punti a 146. L'Indice delle Aspettative Future ha subito il calo più marcato, diminuendo di 18 punti a 146, mentre l'Indice delle Condizioni Attuali ha registrato una leggera diminuzione di 2 punti a 144.
L'Indice delle Prestazioni Finanziarie Agricole è diminuito di 5 punti a 104, sebbene rimanere sopra 100 indichi che gli agricoltori si aspettano ancora una performance finanziaria migliore nel 2025 rispetto al 2024. L'Indice degli Investimenti in Capitale Agricolo è migliorato di 5 punti a 60, con il 24% degli agricoltori che lo considera un buon momento per investire, in aumento rispetto al 19% di maggio.
Si sono osservati cambiamenti significativi nelle prospettive commerciali, con gli agricoltori meno ottimisti riguardo alle esportazioni agricole. La percentuale di produttori che prevedono un aumento delle esportazioni nei prossimi cinque anni è scesa dal 52% al 41%, mentre quelli che prevedono un calo delle esportazioni sono aumentati di 4 punti al 16%. Inoltre, le preoccupazioni sull'impatto dei dazi sul reddito agricolo hanno mostrato un miglioramento, con il 45% che prevede effetti negativi a giugno, in calo rispetto al 56% di marzo-aprile.
CME Group y el último Ag Economy Barometer de la Universidad de Purdue revelaron una caída en el sentimiento de los agricultores para junio de 2025, con el índice principal bajando 12 puntos hasta 146. El Índice de Expectativas Futuras experimentó la caída más pronunciada, cayendo 18 puntos hasta 146, mientras que el Índice de Condiciones Actuales disminuyó ligeramente en 2 puntos hasta 144.
El Índice de Desempeño Financiero Agrícola bajó 5 puntos hasta 104, aunque mantenerse por encima de 100 indica que los agricultores aún esperan un mejor desempeño financiero en 2025 en comparación con 2024. El Índice de Inversión en Capital Agrícola mejoró 5 puntos hasta 60, con un 24% de agricultores que lo consideran un buen momento para invertir, frente al 19% en mayo.
Se observaron cambios notables en la perspectiva comercial, con los agricultores mostrando menor optimismo sobre las exportaciones agrícolas. El porcentaje de productores que esperan un aumento en las exportaciones en los próximos cinco años cayó del 52% al 41%, mientras que quienes esperan una disminución en las exportaciones aumentaron 4 puntos hasta el 16%. Además, las preocupaciones sobre el impacto de los aranceles en los ingresos agrícolas mostraron cierta mejora, con un 45% que espera efectos negativos en junio, frente al 56% en marzo-abril.
CME 그룹과 퍼듀 대학교의 최신 농업 경제 지표인 Ag Economy Barometer는 2025년 6월 농부들의 심리가 하락했음을 보여주었으며, 주요 지수는 12포인트 하락하여 146을 기록했습니다. 미래 기대 지수는 가장 큰 폭으로 하락하여 18포인트 떨어져 146이 되었고, 현재 상황 지수는 2포인트 소폭 하락하여 144를 기록했습니다.
농장 재정 성과 지수는 5포인트 하락하여 104가 되었지만, 100 이상을 유지한다는 것은 농부들이 2024년보다 2025년에 더 나은 재정 성과를 기대하고 있음을 의미합니다. 농장 자본 투자 지수는 5포인트 상승하여 60이 되었으며, 24%의 농부들이 투자하기 좋은 시기로 보고 있는데, 이는 5월의 19%에서 증가한 수치입니다.
무역 전망에서도 눈에 띄는 변화가 있었으며, 농부들은 농산물 수출에 대한 낙관적인 전망이 줄어들었습니다. 향후 5년간 수출 증가를 기대하는 생산자 비율은 52%에서 41%로 감소했고, 수출 감소를 예상하는 비율은 4포인트 증가하여 16%가 되었습니다. 또한, 관세가 농장 수입에 미치는 영향에 대한 우려는 다소 완화되어, 6월에 부정적인 영향을 예상하는 비율이 45%로 3~4월의 56%에서 감소했습니다.
CME Group et le dernier Ag Economy Barometer de l'Université Purdue ont révélé une baisse du moral des agriculteurs pour juin 2025, l'indice principal chutant de 12 points à 146. L'Indice des Attentes Futures a connu la plus forte baisse, diminuant de 18 points à 146, tandis que l'Indice des Conditions Actuelles a légèrement reculé de 2 points à 144.
L'Indice de Performance Financière Agricole a diminué de 5 points à 104, bien que rester au-dessus de 100 indique que les agriculteurs s'attendent toujours à une meilleure performance financière en 2025 par rapport à 2024. L'Indice des Investissements en Capital Agricole s'est amélioré de 5 points à 60, avec 24% des agriculteurs le considérant comme un bon moment pour investir, contre 19% en mai.
Des changements notables dans les perspectives commerciales ont été observés, les agriculteurs étant moins optimistes quant aux exportations agricoles. Le pourcentage de producteurs prévoyant une augmentation des exportations au cours des cinq prochaines années est passé de 52% à 41%, tandis que ceux s'attendant à une baisse des exportations ont augmenté de 4 points à 16%. De plus, les inquiétudes concernant l'impact des tarifs douaniers sur les revenus agricoles se sont quelque peu atténuées, avec 45% s'attendant à des effets négatifs en juin, contre 56% en mars-avril.
CME Group und der neueste Ag Economy Barometer der Purdue University zeigten für Juni 2025 einen Rückgang der Stimmung der Landwirte, wobei der Hauptindex um 12 Punkte auf 146 sank. Der Index der zukünftigen Erwartungen verzeichnete den stärksten Rückgang und fiel um 18 Punkte auf 146, während der Index der aktuellen Bedingungen leicht um 2 Punkte auf 144 zurückging.
Der Index der finanziellen Leistung der Landwirtschaft sank um 5 Punkte auf 104, wobei ein Wert über 100 weiterhin darauf hindeutet, dass die Landwirte für 2025 eine bessere finanzielle Leistung als 2024 erwarten. Der Index der Investitionen in landwirtschaftliches Kapital verbesserte sich um 5 Punkte auf 60, wobei 24% der Landwirte dies als guten Zeitpunkt für Investitionen ansehen, gegenüber 19% im Mai.
Es wurden bemerkenswerte Veränderungen in der Handelsperspektive beobachtet, wobei die Landwirte weniger optimistisch bezüglich der Agrarexporte sind. Der Anteil der Produzenten, die in den nächsten fünf Jahren steigende Exporte erwarten, sank von 52% auf 41%, während diejenigen, die sinkende Exporte erwarten, um 4 Punkte auf 16% zunahmen. Zudem haben sich die Sorgen über die Auswirkungen von Zöllen auf das Einkommen der Landwirte etwas verbessert, da im Juni 45% negative Effekte erwarten, verglichen mit 56% im März-April.
- All three main indices remain higher than a year ago
- Farm Capital Investment Index rose 5 points to 60
- Percentage of farmers viewing it as good time to invest increased to 24% from 19%
- Strong income prospects reported for livestock sector, especially beef producers
- Fewer farmers expect negative tariff impacts on income compared to March-April (45% vs 56%)
- Ag Economy Barometer dropped 12 points to 146
- Index of Future Expectations declined 18 points to 146
- Farm Financial Performance Index decreased 5 points to 104
- 54% of producers plan to reduce farm machinery purchases, up 6 points from May
- Percentage of producers expecting increasing agricultural exports dropped from 52% to 41%
Insights
Declining farmer sentiment driven by export concerns signals potential headwinds for agricultural commodities and related trading volumes.
The June Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer reveals a notable 12-point drop to 146, primarily driven by deteriorating future expectations rather than current conditions. This divergence is particularly telling - farmers' immediate situation remains relatively stable (Current Conditions Index only fell 2 points to 144), while their outlook has significantly darkened (Future Expectations Index dropped 18 points to 146).
The most concerning signal comes from shifting trade perspectives. The percentage of producers expecting increased agricultural exports over the next five years fell dramatically from
Despite these concerns, several positive indicators suggest underlying resilience. The Farm Financial Performance Index, while down 5 points to 104, remains above 100, indicating expectations of stronger performance in 2025 versus 2024. The Farm Capital Investment Index actually improved 5 points to 60, with more farmers indicating it's a good time to invest (
Most significantly, while tariff concerns persist, they're moderating -
This sentiment shift could influence commodity market dynamics and trading volumes on exchanges like CME, particularly if weakening export optimism translates to actual export reductions or shifts in planting/production decisions.
The Farm Financial Performance Index dropped 5 points to 104, with producers projecting a slightly weaker financial outlook for their farms in June than in May. An index above 100 indicates that
The Farm Capital Investment Index, meanwhile, rose 5 points from May to 60, nearly matching April's reading of 61. The investment index increased as the percentage of farmers who said it's a good time to invest reached
The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index fell 4 points to 120 in June. An index above 100 signals cautious optimism among producers about farmland values since it means more producers expect values to rise than fall. The main factor in this month's change in the index stems from the falling percentage of producers (
Shifting producer expectations for ag exports seem to be driving the shift in farmer sentiment. From May to June, the percentage of producers who said they expect increasing agricultural exports over the next five years dropped to
The June survey again asked producers for their perspective on if "free trade benefits agriculture and most other American industries." Similar to the May survey results, only
The four most recent barometer surveys sought to learn more about farmers' perspectives on the effect of
"Overall, we see weakened agricultural producer sentiment coupled with their weakened expectations for the future," said Michael Langemeier, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "Reduced optimism about the future of
About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.
About CME Group
As the world's leading derivatives marketplace, CME Group enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets, optimize portfolios, and analyze data — empowering market participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural products and metals. The company offers futures and options on futures trading through the CME Globex platform, fixed income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing.
CME Group, the Globe logo, CME, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Globex, and E-mini are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. CBOT and
About Purdue University
Purdue University is a public research university leading with excellence at scale. Ranked among top 10 public universities in
Sources and Notes block:
Source: Michael Langemeier, mlangeme@purdue.edu, 765-494-9557
Author: Steve Koppes
Image caption: Farmer sentiment weakens on cloudy trade outlook. (Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer/James Mintert)
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SOURCE CME Group
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