Farmer sentiment drifts lower while producers remain optimistic about the future
Farmer sentiment declined in December as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropped 9 points to 136. The Index of Current Conditions fell 13 points to 100, while the Index of Future Expectations decreased 8 points to 153. Despite the decline, both indices remain significantly above their September lows.
The percentage of producers expecting good times in U.S. agriculture over the next five years increased to 57%, showing optimism about future conditions. However, 57% of producers reported worse farm financial conditions compared to last year. The Farm Capital Investment Index decreased 7 points to 48, with only 17% of farmers believing it's a good time to invest.
Trade concerns persist, with 43% of farmers identifying trade policy as their most important concern. 48% believe a trade war affecting agricultural exports is likely or very likely, up from 42% in November. Farmers' optimism appears largely driven by expectations of favorable policy changes following the 2024 election, particularly regarding environmental, estate, and income tax policies.
Il sentiment degli agricoltori è diminuito a dicembre, con il Barometro dell'Economia Agricola della Purdue University/CME Group che è sceso di 9 punti a 136. L'Indice delle Condizioni Attuali è calato di 13 punti a 100, mentre l'Indice delle Aspettative Future è diminuito di 8 punti a 153. Nonostante il calo, entrambi gli indici rimangono significativamente al di sopra dei minimi di settembre.
La percentuale di produttori che si aspetta tempi buoni nell'agricoltura statunitense nei prossimi cinque anni è aumentata al 57%, mostrando ottimismo riguardo alle condizioni future. Tuttavia, il 57% dei produttori ha segnalato condizioni finanziarie agricole peggiori rispetto all'anno scorso. L'Indice degli Investimenti in Capitale Agricolo è sceso di 7 punti a 48, con solo il 17% degli agricoltori che crede sia un buon momento per investire.
Le preoccupazioni commerciali persistono, con il 43% degli agricoltori che identifica la politica commerciale come la loro principale preoccupazione. Il 48% ritiene che una guerra commerciale che colpisce le esportazioni agricole sia probabile o molto probabile, in aumento rispetto al 42% di novembre. L'ottimismo degli agricoltori sembra essere prevalentemente guidato dalle aspettative di cambiamenti favorevoli nella politica dopo le elezioni del 2024, in particolare riguardo alle politiche ambientali, patrimoniali e fiscali sui redditi.
El sentimiento de los agricultores disminuyó en diciembre, ya que el Barómetro de la Economía Agrícola de la Universidad de Purdue/CME Group cayó 9 puntos a 136. El Índice de Condiciones Actuales disminuyó 13 puntos a 100, mientras que el Índice de Expectativas Futuras bajó 8 puntos a 153. A pesar de la disminución, ambos índices permanecen significativamente por encima de sus mínimos de septiembre.
El porcentaje de productores que espera tiempos buenos en la agricultura de EE. UU. durante los próximos cinco años aumentó al 57%, mostrando optimismo sobre las condiciones futuras. Sin embargo, el 57% de los productores informaron peores condiciones financieras agrícolas en comparación con el año pasado. El Índice de Inversión de Capital Agrícola disminuyó 7 puntos a 48, con solo el 17% de los agricultores creyendo que es un buen momento para invertir.
Las preocupaciones comerciales persisten, con el 43% de los agricultores identificando la política comercial como su preocupación más importante. El 48% cree que es probable o muy probable una guerra comercial que afecte las exportaciones agrícolas, un aumento del 42% en noviembre. El optimismo de los agricultores parece estar impulsado en gran medida por las expectativas de cambios políticos favorables tras las elecciones de 2024, especialmente en lo que respecta a políticas ambientales, patrimoniales y fiscales sobre la renta.
농부들의 감정이 12월에 감소했으며, 퍼듀 대학교/CME 그룹의 농업 경제 바르로미터가 9포인트 하락하여 136이 되었습니다. 현재 상황 지수는 13포인트 하락하여 100이 되었고, 미래 기대 지수는 8포인트 감소하여 153이 되었습니다. 감소에도 불구하고 두 지수 모두 9월의 최저치보다 상당히 높은 수준을 유지하고 있습니다.
향후 5년 동안 미국 농업에서 좋은 시기를 예상하는 생산자의 비율이 57%로 증가하여 미래 조건에 대한 낙관을 보였습니다. 그러나 57%의 생산자는 지난해보다 더 나쁜 농장 재정 조건을 보고했습니다. 농업 자본 투자 지수는 7포인트 감소하여 48이 되었고, 단 17%의 농부만이 투자하기에 좋은 시기라고 생각합니다.
무역에 대한 우려가 여전히 존재하며, 43%의 농부가 무역 정책을 가장 중요한 우려로 보고하고 있습니다. 48%는 농업 수출에 영향을 미치는 무역 전쟁이 가능하거나 매우 가능하다고 생각하며, 이는 11월의 42%에서 증가한 수치입니다. 농부들의 낙관주의는 주로 2024년 선거 이후의 유리한 정책 변화에 대한 기대에 의해 주도되는 것으로 보이며, 특히 환경, 재산세 및 소득세 정책과 관련하여 그렇습니다.
Le sentiment des agriculteurs a diminué en décembre, le baromètre de l'économie agricole de l'université Purdue/CME Group ayant chuté de 9 points à 136. L'indice des conditions actuelles a baissé de 13 points à 100, tandis que l'indice des attentes futures a diminué de 8 points à 153. Malgré cette baisse, les deux indices restent nettement au-dessus de leurs niveaux les plus bas de septembre.
Le pourcentage de producteurs s'attendant à de bons moments pour l'agriculture américaine au cours des cinq prochaines années a augmenté à 57%, montrant un optimisme concernant les conditions futures. Cependant, 57% des producteurs ont signalé des conditions financières agricoles pires que l'année dernière. L'indice d'investissement en capital agricole a diminué de 7 points à 48, avec seulement 17% des agriculteurs pensant que c'est un bon moment pour investir.
Les préoccupations commerciales persistent, 43% des agriculteurs identifiant la politique commerciale comme leur principale préoccupation. 48% croient qu'une guerre commerciale affectant les exportations agricoles est probable ou très probable, en hausse par rapport à 42% en novembre. L'optimisme des agriculteurs semble largement être alimenté par des attentes de changements favorables de politique après les élections de 2024, en particulier en ce qui concerne les politiques environnementales, successorales et fiscales sur le revenu.
Die Stimmung der Landwirte ist im Dezember gesunken, da der Ag Economy Barometer der Purdue University/CME Group um 9 Punkte auf 136 gefallen ist. Der Index der aktuellen Bedingungen sank um 13 Punkte auf 100, während der Index der zukünftigen Erwartungen um 8 Punkte auf 153 fiel. Trotz des Rückgangs bleiben beide Indizes deutlich über ihren September-Tiefstständen.
Der Prozentsatz der Produzenten, die in den nächsten fünf Jahren optimistisch über die Landwirtschaft in den USA sind, stieg auf 57%, was auf positive Erwartungen hinsichtlich zukünftiger Bedingungen hinweist. Allerdings berichteten 57% der Produzenten von schlechteren finanziellen Bedingungen im Vergleich zum Vorjahr. Der Index für Investitionen in landwirtschaftliches Kapital sank um 7 Punkte auf 48, wobei nur 17% der Landwirte glauben, dass jetzt ein guter Zeitpunkt zum Investieren ist.
Die Handelsbedenken bleiben bestehen, da 43% der Landwirte die Handelspolitik als ihre wichtigste Sorge betrachten. 48% glauben, dass ein Handelskrieg, der die landwirtschaftlichen Exporte betrifft, wahrscheinlich oder sehr wahrscheinlich ist, was einem Anstieg von 42% im November entspricht. Der Optimismus der Landwirte scheint hauptsächlich durch die Erwartungen an positive politische Veränderungen nach den Wahlen 2024 getrieben zu sein, insbesondere im Hinblick auf Umwelt-, Nachlass- und Einkommenssteuerrichtlinien.
- Future expectations index remains 59 points above September low
- 57% of producers expect good times in U.S. agriculture over next five years
- Reduced concerns about restrictive environmental regulations (from 40% to below 10%)
- 55% expect stronger farm income safety net post-election
- Ag Economy Barometer dropped 9 points to 136
- Current Conditions Index fell 13 points to 100
- 57% of producers reported worse farm financial conditions year-over-year
- Farm Capital Investment Index declined 7 points to 48
- 48% of farmers expect harmful trade war, up from 42% in November
Insights
The December Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer reveals significant shifts in farmer sentiment with complex implications for agricultural markets and CME's derivatives trading volumes. The 9-point drop to 136 in the overall barometer, coupled with a 13-point decline in current conditions to 100, signals immediate market pressures that could impact futures trading activity. However, the Future Expectations Index at 153 suggests sustained long-term market engagement.
The divergence between current and future sentiment creates a unique trading environment. While 57% of producers report worse current conditions, their optimistic five-year outlook indicates potential increased hedging activity as farmers seek to lock in future prices. The post-election policy expectations, particularly regarding reduced regulatory concerns, could fundamentally alter risk management strategies and trading patterns on CME's agricultural futures platforms.
The trade war concerns, with 48% of farmers expecting negative impacts, could drive higher futures market volatility and increased options trading volume as producers seek downside protection. This sentiment shift directly affects CME's agricultural derivatives business segment, potentially leading to higher transaction volumes and revenue from risk management products.
The data presents a nuanced picture for CME Group's business outlook. The 7-point decline in the Farm Capital Investment Index to 48 and weakening investment sentiment could impact trading volumes in the short term. However, the sustained optimism in long-term farmland values (index at 155) suggests continued robust activity in CME's agricultural risk management products.
The stark contrast between pre- and post-election regulatory expectations is particularly noteworthy. The dramatic drop from 40% to below 10% in concerns about environmental regulations and tax increases indicates a potential shift in hedging strategies. This could lead to more strategic, longer-term positions in CME's agricultural futures markets rather than defensive short-term trades.
Trade policy emerging as the top concern for 43% of farmers creates opportunities for CME's international agricultural derivatives products. The increased uncertainty around trade relations could drive higher trading volumes as market participants seek to manage cross-border risks through CME's global marketplace.
"While sentiment dipped this month, it's clear that much of the postelection optimism about future conditions is still holding strong," said James Mintert, the barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture. "Producers' optimism about the future seems to stem largely from their expectations for a more favorable policy environment over the next five years."
Farmers' views on the current and long-term outlooks for agriculture showed some noticeable differences in December. While sentiment regarding the current situation and the one-year outlook was more cautious than in November, expectations for the agricultural sector over the next five years were notably more positive. The percentage of producers anticipating widespread good times in
Following a 13-point increase in November's survey, the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 7 points to a reading of 48. The weakening in investment sentiment was reflected in a lower percentage of farmers who believe it is a good time to invest, dropping to
Continuing the trend from November, the Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index dropped 5 points to a reading of 110, following a similar 5-point decrease the previous month. Despite these two consecutive decreases, the short-term index remains well above its low of 95 in September. The Long-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index, which reflects producers' outlooks for farmland values over the next five years, decreased by just 1 point to 155.
Farmers' outlook for the future of their farms and the agricultural sector remains noticeably more positive than at the end of summer. This shift appears to be driven by expectations of policy changes following the 2024 election, particularly in areas such as environmental, estate and income tax policies. Leading up to the election, over
One ongoing concern for
About the Purdue University Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute research and educational programs that address the different needs of managing in today's business environment.
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About Purdue University
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Author: Morgan French
Source: James Mintert, jmintert@purdue.edu, 765-494-7004
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SOURCE CME Group
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