Arch MI’s Fall HaMMR Predicts Home Price Growth Will Moderate Going Forward

Rhea-AI Summary

Arch Mortgage Insurance Company released its Fall Housing and Mortgage Market Review, forecasting that while U.S. home prices, driven by demand and low mortgage rates, reached record highs, affordability challenges will slow future price gains. Chief Economist Parker Ross notes the anticipated rise in mortgage rates will stabilize home price appreciation. The report reviews housing demand factors, including Millennial trends and the effect of the pandemic on urban to suburban migration.

Positive

• Strong demand for housing among Millennials as they enter prime homebuying years.
• Expected resolution of homebuilding constraints may moderate home price growth.

Negative

• Rising mortgage rates could hinder affordability and slow down home price gains.

Affordability Pressures, Rising Supply Likely to Normalize Home-Price Gains

GREENSBORO, N.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- While solid demographics and an acute housing shortage have propelled U.S. home prices to record highs, affordability will become a headwind for further rapid price gains, according to the Fall edition of The Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR), released today by Arch Mortgage Insurance Company (Arch MI), a leading provider of mortgage insurance.

The new issue is authored by Parker Ross, who recently joined Arch Global Mortgage Group as Senior Vice President and Chief Economist.

“Demand for housing surged in response to the pandemic and should remain strong in the years to come as Millennials age into their prime homebuying years,” Ross said. “Rapid home price growth has been a consequence of constrained housing supply and record-low mortgage rates that allowed affordability to remain roughly in line with its historical average. Going into the end of 2021 and next year, mortgage rates are poised to rise and homebuilding constraints should be partly resolved, which in turn should moderate the pace of home price appreciation.”

The Fall HaMMR also reviews key factors driving the ongoing housing shortage and Millennial housing demand, and investigates the widespread perception that the pandemic prompted an exodus from major U.S. cities to suburbs and exurbs.

Commentary resources:

• The Housing and Mortgage Market Review is posted at archmi.com/hammr. The Fall 2021 issue assesses the likelihood of high home prices continuing into 2022 and beyond, with special features on the housing shortage, Millennial housing demand, pandemic-driven migration and the top five fastest-growing cities that are still affordable for Millennials.
• Parker Ross will host a Housing Update Webinar on Oct. 28 at 1 p.m. ET, covering the main HaMMR points and offering his perspective on the direction of U.S. housing. Registration is available at archmi.com/hammr.

About Arch Mortgage Insurance Company

Arch Capital Group Ltd.’s U.S. mortgage insurance operation, Arch MI, is a leading provider of private insurance covering mortgage credit risk. Headquartered in Greensboro, North Carolina, Arch MI's mission is to protect lenders against credit risk, while extending the possibility of responsible homeownership to qualified borrowers. Arch MI’s flagship mortgage insurer, Arch Mortgage Insurance Company, is licensed to write mortgage insurance in all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. For more information, visit archmi.com.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe harbor" for forward-looking statements. This release or any other written or oral statements made by or on behalf of Arch Capital Group Ltd. and its subsidiaries may include forward-looking statements, which reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, included in or incorporated by reference in this release are forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements can generally be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may," "will," "expect," "intend," "estimate," "anticipate," "believe" or "continue" or their negative or variations or similar terminology. Forward-looking statements involve our current assessment of risks and uncertainties. Actual events and results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. A non-exclusive list of the important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in such forward-looking statements includes the following: adverse general economic and market conditions; increased competition; pricing and policy term trends; fluctuations in the actions of rating agencies and the Company’s ability to maintain and improve its ratings; investment performance; the loss of key personnel; the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserves, severity and/or frequency of losses, greater than expected loss ratios and adverse development on claim and/or claim expense liabilities; greater frequency or severity of unpredictable natural and man-made catastrophic events, including pandemics such as COVID-19; the impact of acts of terrorism and acts of war; changes in regulations and/or tax laws in the United States or elsewhere; the Company’s ability to successfully integrate, establish and maintain operating procedures as well as consummate acquisitions and integrate the businesses the Company has acquired or may acquire into the existing operations; changes in accounting principles or policies; material differences between actual and expected assessments for guaranty funds and mandatory pooling arrangements; availability and cost to the Company of reinsurance to manage the Company’s gross and net exposures; the failure of others to meet their obligations to the Company; changes in the method for determining the London Inter-bank Offered Rate (“LIBOR”) and the potential replacement of LIBOR and other factors identified in the Company’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”).

The foregoing review of important factors should not be construed as exhaustive and should be read in conjunction with other cautionary statements that are included herein or elsewhere. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to us or persons acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

ARCH MORTGAGE INSURANCE COMPANY® | 230 NORTH ELM STREET GREENSBORO NC 27401 | ARCHMI.COM

MCUS-B1338E-1021

© 2021 Arch Mortgage Insurance Company. All Rights Reserved. Arch MI is a marketing term for Arch Mortgage Insurance Company and United Guaranty Residential Insurance Company. Arch Mortgage Insurance Company and The Housing and Mortgage Market Review are registered marks of Arch Capital Group (U.S.) Inc. or its affiliates. HaMMR is a service mark of Arch Capital Group (U.S.) Inc. or its affiliates.

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View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211021005987/en/

Arch Capital Services LLC

Greg Hare, 336-333-0416



Method Communications

Sara Larsen, 832-233-0370

slarsen@methodcommunications.com

Source: Arch Mortgage Insurance Company

FAQ

What does the Fall 2021 Housing and Mortgage Market Review by ACGL say?

It forecasts that while home prices are high, affordability issues will slow their growth.

Who authored the Fall 2021 Housing and Mortgage Market Review for ACGL?

Parker Ross, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Arch Global Mortgage Group.

What factors are driving the housing market according to ACGL's report?

Key factors include demand from Millennials and the effect of the pandemic on housing preferences.

When is the Housing Update Webinar hosted by ACGL?

The webinar is on October 28 at 1 p.m. ET.

How is Arch Capital Group Ltd. addressing mortgage credit risk?

Through its subsidiary, Arch Mortgage Insurance Company, providing mortgage insurance across the U.S.