Out of Town Movers Reshuffling to Larger, More Affordable Homes

Rhea-AI Summary

The latest Zillow analysis reveals a significant trend in 2020, indicating that Americans moving out of urban areas opted for larger homes in more affordable locations. The average home size in destination ZIP codes increased by 33 square feet, while typical home values dropped by approximately $27,000. Top destinations for movers included Phoenix, Charlotte, and Austin, driven by remote work flexibility and declining interest rates. Overall, home values appreciated by 8.4% in 2020, showcasing a shift towards less urban areas and greater living space preferences.

Positive

• Average home size for movers increased by 33 square feet.
• Home values appreciated by 8.4% ($20,716) in 2020.
• Top metros for net in-migration include affordable cities like Phoenix, Charlotte, and Austin.

Negative

• Average home value in destination ZIPs decreased by about $27,000 compared to origin ZIPs.
• Urban to suburban moves decreased by 1.5%, indicating stagnant urban market strength.

SEATTLE, June 8, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Americans who made out-of-town moves last year typically paid less money for larger houses, according to a new Zillow® analysis of moving data from northAmerican® Van Lines.

That's a sharp break from the trend in recent years. The housing market's impressive strength in 2020 paired with a newfound motivation to move helped sellers cash in on quickly rising home values to find places that better suit their needs -- namely, bigger homes in less-expensive areas.

Movers went to ZIP codes where sold homes are 33 square feet larger on average than where they came from -- roughly the size of a walk-in closet or extra bathroom. This was a significant jump from the 9-to 21-square foot step-up movers have taken in recent years.

"The ability to sell in a relatively expensive market and relocate somewhere more affordable -- either to save money or get more bang for their buck with a larger property -- was extremely attractive to movers," said Jeff Tucker, senior economist at Zillow. 

Zillow's recent Mover Report found the top metros for net in-migration, with more people moving in than out, are sunny and relatively affordable. Phoenix, Charlotte and Austin led the U.S. in terms of net in-migration. 

Taken as a whole, the findings are evidence of the Great Reshuffling at work. Up until March 2020, workers were largely locked to locations within a bearable commute of their workplace. When the pandemic hit, many began working remotely -- spending a lot more time at home and thinking about where, and how, they want to live. A larger house with an office or chef's kitchen, or a home with lower monthly payments in sunny Arizona, became extremely alluring.

All the while, interest rates kept dropping, adding fuel to a scorching-hot housing market and boosting shoppers' buying power. Home appreciation was supercharged in 2020 by massive demand and limited supply, driving typical home values up 8.4% ($20,716) over the course of 2020, compared with 3.7% growth ($8,791) in 2019. 

Tucker said the trend could contribute to convergence in home prices, as people move away from the priciest cities and toward more affordable ones, which will tend to cause prices to rise in their destinations. It may also spread out some of the consumer spending, tax revenues and job growth that have been increasingly concentrated in "superstar cities" over the last few decades. Home values are rising fastest in places like Austin and Phoenix, and most slowly in San Francisco, which led the U.S. in appreciation as recently as 2016.

Nationwide, the average home value in ZIP codes people moved from was about $419,000, compared to an average home value in destination ZIP codes of about $392,000. This means the average mover was sliding down the price ladder by about $27,000. When movers relocated in 2019, average home values in their destinations were only about $3,400 less than where they started. 

The trend in 2020 to move to more affordable places than in years past was seen across nearly every type of move between urban, suburban and rural areas. People leaving urban ZIP codes moved to areas that were $66,000 cheaper in 2020, versus an average of about $26,000 cheaper in the previous four years. Those leaving suburban ZIPs moved about $23,000 down the price ladder, compared to an average decrease of just over $500 the previous four years.

Even those leaving rural areas for urban or suburban areas, where prices are higher, only moved up the price ladder by about $31,000 this year as opposed to roughly $41,000 in recent years.

"We have felt the impact of this supercharged market since the second half of 2020.  These migration patterns are challenging the moving industry to provide capacity in the right places.  As you would expect, we end up with a lot of trucks in the low-cost areas where people are moving to, and fewer trucks in the high-cost areas where demand is high," said Kevin Murphy, Vice President and General Manager of northAmerican Van Lines. "It is more important than ever to make sure you have a reliable partner helping you with your move."  

Migration to less urban areas picked up slightly in 2020 compared to 2019, while moves to more dense locations ticked down -- which is not to say that early pandemic fears of an urban exodus have been borne out. The number of households that moved out of urban areas did not significantly rise in 2020. Beyond that, Zillow's Urban-Suburban report found that despite some early pandemic-era narratives, suburban housing markets did not disproportionately strengthen in 2020 at the expense of urban areas. 

The biggest decrease in share of moves between area classes was from suburban to urban, which fell 1.5% year over year. The largest increase was seen in suburban to rural moves, which increased by 1.2% on the year. 

San Jose saw the most extreme changes in average home value for both those moving to and from ZIP codes within the metro, followed by San Francisco and Los Angeles. Those moving out of San Jose went to a ZIP with average home values nearly $1.2 million lower, while those moving in saw houses worth about $1.4 million more than where they came from. 

Moving on Up - Americans' Preferences for Larger Homes, 2016-2020

Load Year	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Ave. SF Origin ZIP	1,840	1,862	1,858	1,856	1,880
Ave. SF Destination ZIP	1,856	1,871	1,878	1,878	1,913
Ave. SF Change, Origin to Destination ZIP	16	9	20	21	33

 

Metropolitan   Area*	Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI); April, 2021	ZHVI % Change Year over Year; April, 2021	Ave. ZHVI Change for those Moving In	Ave. ZHVI Change for those Moving Out	Ave. SF Change for those Moving In	Ave. SF Change for those Moving Out
United States	$281,370	11.6%	($26,963)	($26,963)	33	33
New York, NY	$530,082	9.5%	$144,774	($158,981)	83	71
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA	$783,610	10.4%	$614,793	($591,517)	(113)	269
Chicago, IL	$270,352	9.5%	($85,080)	$89,775	(55)	135
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX	$289,582	11.9%	($61,326)	$28,762	468	(369)
Philadelphia, PA	$288,947	13.3%	($82,866)	$46,656	55	(27)
Houston, TX	$241,698	9.1%	($69,253)	$59,995	451	(449)
Washington, DC	$498,649	11.5%	$146,141	($135,203)	(71)	159
Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL	$336,714	9.1%	($144,164)	$74,801	(264)	331
Atlanta, GA	$280,038	13.0%	($63,161)	$31,392	374	(293)
Boston, MA	$563,149	11.6%	$190,243	($170,429)	(60)	131
San Francisco, CA	$1,235,705	7.4%	$856,457	($815,525)	(129)	274
Detroit, MI	$209,728	11.0%	($107,479)	$119,830	(64)	112
Riverside, CA	$460,833	16.2%	$46,162	($92,823)	85	17
Phoenix, AZ	$355,822	20.4%	($48,237)	($27,012)	116	(55)
Seattle, WA	$627,290	14.6%	$260,754	($264,337)	(56)	105
Minneapolis-St Paul, MN	$331,152	9.9%	($76,075)	$75,690	79	(8)
San Diego, CA	$729,318	16.5%	$396,605	($422,781)	(235)	236
St. Louis, MO	$205,604	11.5%	($95,351)	$112,849	56	15
Tampa, FL	$271,353	15.8%	($79,814)	$73,756	(196)	253
Baltimore, MD	$332,992	11.2%	($28,097)	$64,057	(35)	153
Denver, CO	$517,395	12.9%	$66,326	($141,738)	273	(264)
Pittsburgh, PA	$185,063	13.0%	($143,326)	$138,316	(136)	205
Portland, OR	$482,708	13.3%	($68,322)	($9,567)	(42)	99
Charlotte, NC	$281,335	14.4%	($65,427)	$63,422	296	(220)
Sacramento, CA	$507,735	14.3%	$90,214	($128,023)	(77)	49
San Antonio, TX	$233,083	10.4%	($77,521)	$52,586	216	(228)
Orlando, FL	$285,049	8.3%	($89,488)	$64,618	(31)	78
Cincinnati, OH	$218,672	14.6%	($102,691)	$123,198	(53)	76
Cleveland, OH	$184,224	13.5%	($197,369)	$204,956	(183)	(31)
Kansas City, MO	$241,203	14.6%	($74,845)	$68,806	315	(291)
Las Vegas, NV	$330,880	9.4%	($112,481)	$18,096	(23)	41
Columbus, OH	$244,220	12.4%	($102,017)	$111,565	(90)	81
Indianapolis, IN	$212,334	13.7%	($96,710)	$124,727	565	(464)
San Jose, CA	$1,364,273	5.9%	$1,357,893	($1,160,458)	(74)	212
Austin, TX	$441,931	25.5%	($100,567)	$1,194	130	(100)
Virginia Beach, VA	$275,562	10.3%	($65,907)	$48,728	84	51
Nashville, TN	$320,818	11.0%	($50,689)	($9,082)	259	(261)
Providence, RI	$375,407	15.0%	($41,939)	$15,290	(63)	118
Milwaukee, WI	$232,744	13.9%	($116,431)	$128,666	(131)	154
Jacksonville, FL	$265,105	11.7%	($60,580)	$89,408	(24)	95
Memphis, TN	$182,194	13.2%	($46,734)	$96,938	428	(349)
Oklahoma City, OK	$175,922	8.9%	($187,063)	$140,522	(98)	101
Louisville-Jefferson County, KY	$205,647	10.6%	($85,923)	$82,197	(102)	117
Hartford, CT	$274,468	13.6%	($125,603)	$104,594	(92)	66
Richmond, VA	$279,336	10.5%	($69,034)	$36,317	212	(154)
New Orleans, LA	$231,224	9.1%	($128,363)	$77,837	(99)	153
Buffalo, NY	$202,040	14.1%	($140,212)	$125,141	(141)	107
Raleigh, NC	$327,048	12.3%	($69,436)	$51,024	370	(272)
Birmingham, AL	$195,643	10.7%	($46,066)	$71,670	116	(178)
Salt Lake City, UT	$466,768	18.3%	$9,323	($47,652)	(20)	34

*Table ordered by market size

Methodology: For every move in the interstate moves dataset shared with Zillow, Zillow compared the ZHVI in the origin and destination ZIP codes on the month of the move's load date, and computed the mean change by year. Only moves with valid origin and destination ZHVI computed this way were considered for the calculation of ZHVI change. For square footage, we computed the median square footage of each home sold in a ZIP code in the year of the move's load date, and only included moves with both a valid origin and destination median square footage. The change in median square footage for each move was then aggregated up to an average change in house size. Moving data was based on SIRVA/North American Van Lines data for the first 11 months of 2020. 

About Zillow Group
Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make it easier to unlock life's next chapter. 

As the most-visited real estate website in the United States, Zillow® and its affiliates offer customers an on-demand experience for selling, buying, renting or financing with transparency and nearly seamless end-to-end service. Zillow Offers® buys and sells homes directly in dozens of markets across the country, allowing sellers control over their timeline. Zillow Home Loans™, our affiliate lender, provides our customers with an easy option to get pre-approved and secure financing for their next home purchase. Zillow recently launched Zillow Homes, Inc., a licensed brokerage entity, to streamline Zillow Offers transactions.  

Zillow Group's brands, affiliates and subsidiaries include Zillow®, Zillow Offers®, Zillow Premier Agent®, Zillow Home Loans™, Zillow Closing Services™, Zillow Homes, Inc., Trulia®, Out East®, StreetEasy® and HotPads®. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). 

About North American Van Lines, Inc.
With over 300 agents throughout the U.S. and Canada, North American Van Lines, Inc., established in 1933, is a leader in providing specialized transit services and high quality, personalized household goods moving services to consumers, corporations, military personnel and governments. North American, based in Fort Wayne, IN, is a wholly-owned subsidiary of SIRVA Inc., a leader in providing relocation solutions to a well- established and diverse customer base around the world. Information on North American Van Lines (U.S. DOT No. 070851) can be found on the Internet at www.northamerican.com.

 

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SOURCE Zillow

FAQ

What does Zillow's analysis reveal about moving trends in 2020?

Zillow's analysis indicates Americans moved to larger homes in more affordable areas, with an average increase in home size of 33 square feet.

What were the top cities for net in-migration according to Zillow?

The top cities for net in-migration included Phoenix, Charlotte, and Austin.

How much did home values appreciate on average in 2020?

Home values appreciated by an average of 8.4% ($20,716) in 2020.

What was the typical change in home value for movers in 2020?

Movers typically relocated to homes that were $27,000 cheaper than their previous homes.

How did the pandemic influence moving patterns in 2020?

The pandemic prompted many to seek larger homes in less expensive areas due to increased remote work flexibility.