Climate risks threaten trillions of dollars in real estate

Rhea-AI Summary

Zillow's new analysis reveals massive climate risks to U.S. residential real estate, with properties worth $17 trillion facing major wind risk, $9.1 trillion at major fire risk, and $7 trillion at major flood risk.

Eleven major metro areas have residential real estate worth over $100 billion at major fire risk, with six in California. Los Angeles leads with $831 billion in fire-risk properties. The New York City metro area tops both flood risk ($593 billion) and wind risk ($3 trillion) categories, followed by Miami.

Despite these risks, high-risk areas remain attractive to buyers, with homes in extreme flood-risk areas listing at 22% higher prices than low-risk properties, and extreme fire-risk homes commanding a 49% premium. Over 80% of home shoppers consider climate risks in their search, utilizing Zillow's climate risk data tools for informed decision-making.

Positive

• Zillow provides comprehensive climate risk assessment tools for informed home-buying decisions
• High-risk areas maintain strong property values with significant price premiums

Negative

• Massive exposure of U.S. real estate to climate risks ($17T wind, $9.1T fire, $7T flood)
• 11 major metros have over $100B each in fire-risk real estate
• Rising insurance costs affecting housing market dynamics
• Six California metros face severe fire risks, indicating geographic concentration of risk

Insights

Financial Analyst

Zillow's climate risk analysis reveals substantial financial exposure in the U.S. real estate market, with properties facing major wind risk valued at $17 trillion, fire risk at $9.1 trillion, and flood risk at $7 trillion. These figures represent significant potential economic impact, with wind-risk properties alone equivalent to over half of U.S. GDP.

What's particularly notable is the paradoxical valuation premium for high-risk properties. Homes with extreme flood risk command a 22% higher median list price than low-risk properties, while fire-risk properties sell at a 49% premium. This counterintuitive pricing dynamic suggests market participants aren't fully pricing in long-term climate risks, creating potential future valuation challenges as insurance costs inevitably increase.

For Zillow specifically, this research demonstrates strategic positioning as they incorporate climate risk data directly into their platform. By integrating five key risk factors (flood, wildfire, wind, heat, air quality) into their search function, Zillow is enhancing their value proposition while potentially influencing buyer behavior in high-risk markets. This positions them well against competitors and adds a differentiated data layer to their core offering, potentially increasing user engagement and retention in a challenging real estate environment.

Eleven major metro areas have at least $100 billion of residential real estate at major risk of fire. Six of those are in California

SEATTLE, March 12, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Trillions of dollars' worth of real estate is at major risk of damage from flood, fire or extreme wind, a new Zillow® analysis finds.

U.S. homes with major wind risk — a risk score of 5 or higher, according to First Street data displayed on for-sale listings on Zillow — are worth at least $17 trillion in total, equivalent to more than half of the U.S. GDP. Homes with major fire risk are valued at $9.1 trillion, and homes with major flood risk are worth a cumulative $7 trillion.¹

"The risk of natural disasters and rising insurance costs are profoundly reshaping the housing market. Home buyers are paying attention," said Kara Ng, a senior economist at Zillow. "With trillions of dollars in real estate vulnerable to these risks, informed decision-making for what is the biggest purchase of many buyers' lives has never been more critical."

Eleven major metro areas have at least $100 billion of residential real estate with major risk of fire, and six of those are in California. The Los Angeles metro has the highest total value of homes at major risk of fire, at $831 billion.

The New York City metro area stands above all other major markets with the highest total value of homes at major risk of flood and extreme wind. For flood risk, the total value of homes at risk in New York ($593 billion) edges out Miami ($580 billion), while no other major metro exceeds $300 billion at risk. New York homes with major wind risk total roughly $3 trillion in value, with the value of Miami and Boston homes at risk also exceeding $1 trillion.

More than 80% of home shoppers consider climate risks when looking for a new home. Still, many high-risk areas remain desirable and often have higher home values. Of homes with extreme flood risk — a risk score of 9 or 10 — listed for sale in June 2024, the median list price was 22% higher than for homes with minor risk scores of 1 or 2. The median list price for homes with extreme fire risk was 49% higher than homes with minor fire risk. Homes with extreme flood risk are worth just under $2 trillion nationwide, and homes with extreme fire risk are worth a total of $447 billion.

Home shoppers can explore climate risk data when browsing listings on Zillow. Insights into five key risks — flood, wildfire, wind, heat and air quality — are available on the search map and directly on for-sale listings, complete with risk scores and interactive maps. This information helps buyers and sellers better evaluate long-term factors affecting homeownership, such as safety, resilience and costs.

Metro Area*	Total Value of Homes With Major Fire Risk (Billions)**	Total Value of Homes With Major Flood Risk (Billions)**	Total Value of Homes With Major Wind Risk (Billions)**
United States	$9,146.9	$7,042.8	$17,286.0
New York, NY	$68.6	$593.0	$3,031.3
Los Angeles, CA	$831.4	$286.6	N/A
Chicago, IL	$4.0	$117.5	N/A
Dallas, TX	$230.9	$60.9	$755.3
Houston, TX	$55.8	$261.4	$790.4
Washington, DC	$36.7	$109.0	$125.2
Philadelphia, PA	$19.7	$80.1	$781.1
Miami, FL	$70.0	$579.7	$1,432.8
Atlanta, GA	$28.5	$65.7	$345.7
Boston, MA	N/A	$152.6	$1,021.7
Phoenix, AZ	$336.0	$49.7	N/A
San Francisco, CA	$385.4	$192.8	N/A
Riverside, CA	$551.1	$73.9	N/A
Detroit, MI	$0.1	$37.1	N/A
Seattle, WA	$0.2	$71.9	N/A
Minneapolis, MN	$7.8	$34.1	N/A
San Diego, CA	$266.7	$50.8	N/A
Tampa, FL	$63.1	$171.7	$492.0
Denver, CO	$249.6	$26.3	N/A
Baltimore, MD	$1.7	$37.4	$247.0
St. Louis, MO	$3.1	$21.7	N/A
Orlando, FL	$75.3	$13.9	$379.7
Charlotte, NC	$2.0	$29.7	$300.2
San Antonio, TX	$71.7	$25.4	$263.8
Portland, OR	$31.9	$24.9	N/A
Sacramento, CA	$232.6	$95.0	N/A
Pittsburgh, PA	N/A	$21.5	N/A
Cincinnati, OH	$0.1	$17.6	N/A
Austin, TX	$77.7	$30.2	$394.5
Las Vegas, NV	$114.3	$6.8	N/A
Kansas City, MO	$11.2	$16.6	N/A
Columbus, OH	$0.2	$14.1	N/A
Indianapolis, IN	N/A	$14.8	N/A
Cleveland, OH	N/A	$10.0	N/A
San Jose, CA	$198.0	$139.4	N/A
Nashville, TN	$9.1	$38.9	N/A
Virginia Beach, VA	$7.7	$60.9	$236.2
Providence, RI	N/A	$21.3	$257.5
Jacksonville, FL	$107.7	$72.9	$254.3
Milwaukee, WI	N/A	$12.2	N/A
Oklahoma City, OK	$35.6	$5.0	N/A
Raleigh, NC	$0.4	$16.7	$240.9
Memphis, TN	$6.1	$6.1	$2.9
Richmond, VA	$4.9	$11.6	$177.8
Louisville, KY	$2.5	$13.5	N/A
New Orleans, LA	$10.1	$104.9	$127.6
Salt Lake City, UT	$92.4	$27.0	N/A
Hartford, CT	N/A	$15.9	$148.2
Buffalo, NY	N/A	$10.8	N/A
Birmingham, AL	$25.1	$12.4	$111.2

*Table ordered by market size
**Metro areas with fewer than 100 homes with major risk were excluded 

About Zillow Group
Zillow Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make home a reality for more and more people. As the most visited real estate website in the United States, Zillow and its affiliates help people find and get the home they want by connecting them with digital solutions, dedicated partners and agents, and easier buying, selling, financing, and renting experiences.

Zillow Group's affiliates, subsidiaries and brands include Zillow®, Zillow Premier Agent®, Zillow Home Loans℠, Zillow Rentals®, Trulia®, Out East®, StreetEasy®, HotPads®, ShowingTime+℠, Spruce®, and Follow Up Boss®.

All marks herein are owned by MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). © 2025 MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate.

¹ Since some homes may face more than one climate risk, the home values for flood, fire and wind risk should not be combined to create a figure that represents the "total value of residential real estate facing a major climate risk."

 

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SOURCE Zillow

FAQ

How much U.S. residential real estate is at risk from climate-related disasters?

According to Zillow's analysis, U.S. homes worth $17 trillion face major wind risk, $9.1 trillion face major fire risk, and $7 trillion face major flood risk.

Which U.S. metro area has the highest value of properties at risk from fires?

The Los Angeles metro area has the highest total value of homes at major risk of fire, with $831 billion worth of residential real estate at risk.

How does property value compare between high and low climate risk areas?

Properties in extreme flood-risk areas list for 22% higher than low-risk properties, while homes with extreme fire risk command a 49% premium over low-risk properties.

What percentage of home shoppers consider climate risks in their search?

Over 80% of home shoppers consider climate risks when looking for a new home, according to Zillow's analysis.

Which metro area has the highest value of properties at risk from floods and winds?

The New York City metro area leads with $593 billion in flood-risk properties and $3 trillion in wind-risk properties.