Vessels, undersea cables, and offshore oil installations increasingly becoming “gray zone” targets
WTW has released its latest Political Risk Index highlighting increased threats from 'gray zone aggression' - actions used to weaken countries through means short of war. The report identifies rising risks to vessels, undersea cables, and offshore installations, particularly from Russia and Iran's disregard for maritime laws.
The research reveals that 69% of respondents experienced geopolitically-related supply chain disruptions in 2024, including gray zone attacks on global shipping. Three main types of flashpoints were identified: military conflicts, fragile states, and ideological polarization.
Key concerns include the growth of the global shadow fleet for oil exports, insurance coverage disruptions, and emerging aerospace sector threats like GPS jamming. The report suggests these attacks are increasing due to interconnected global relationships and new technologies enabling hybrid warfare tactics.
WTW ha pubblicato il suo ultimo Indice di Rischio Politico evidenziando le minacce crescenti derivanti dalla 'aggressione in zona grigia' - azioni utilizzate per indebolire i paesi attraverso mezzi che non comportano la guerra. Il rapporto identifica rischi crescenti per le imbarcazioni, i cavi sottomarini e le installazioni offshore, in particolare a causa del disprezzo di Russia e Iran per le leggi marittime.
La ricerca rivela che il 69% degli intervistati ha sperimentato interruzioni nella catena di approvvigionamento legate alla geopolitica nel 2024, inclusi attacchi in zona grigia alla navigazione globale. Sono stati identificati tre principali punti critici: conflitti militari, stati fragili e polarizzazione ideologica.
Le preoccupazioni principali includono la crescita della flotta ombra globale per le esportazioni di petrolio, interruzioni nella copertura assicurativa e minacce emergenti nel settore aerospaziale come il disturbo del GPS. Il rapporto suggerisce che questi attacchi stiano aumentando a causa delle relazioni globali interconnesse e delle nuove tecnologie che consentono tattiche di guerra ibrida.
WTW ha publicado su último Índice de Riesgo Político destacando las amenazas crecientes de la 'agresión en zona gris' - acciones utilizadas para debilitar a los países mediante medios que no implican guerra. El informe identifica los riesgos crecientes para los barcos, cables submarinos e instalaciones en alta mar, especialmente debido al desprecio de Rusia e Irán por las leyes marítimas.
La investigación revela que el 69% de los encuestados experimentó interrupciones en la cadena de suministro relacionadas con la geopolítica en 2024, incluidos los ataques en zona gris al comercio marítimo global. Se identificaron tres tipos principales de puntos críticos: conflictos militares, estados frágiles y polarización ideológica.
Las principales preocupaciones incluyen el crecimiento de la flota sombra global para la exportación de petróleo, interrupciones en la cobertura de seguros y amenazas emergentes en el sector aeroespacial, como el bloqueo de GPS. El informe sugiere que estos ataques están aumentando debido a las relaciones globales interconectadas y a las nuevas tecnologías que habilitan tácticas de guerra híbrida.
WTW는 최신 정치적 위험 지수를 발표하며 '회색 지대 공격'에서 오는 위협이 증가하고 있음을 강조했습니다. 회색 지대 공격은 전쟁을 초월한 수단으로 국가를 약화시키기 위해 사용되는 행동입니다. 이 보고서는 특히 러시아와 이란의 해양법 무시에 의해 선박, 해저 케이블 및 해양 시설에 대한 위험이 증가하고 있음을 확인합니다.
연구에 따르면 69%의 응답자가 2024년에 지정학적 요인으로 인한 공급망 중단을 경험했으며, 여기에는 글로벌 해운에 대한 회색 지대 공격이 포함됩니다. 세 가지 주요 분쟁 지점이 확인되었습니다: 군사적 갈등, 취약한 국가 및 이념적 분열입니다.
주요 우려 사항으로는 석유 수출을 위한 글로벌 그림자 함대의 성장, 보험 보장 중단 및 GPS 방해와 같은 항공우주 부문에서의 새로운 위협이 포함됩니다. 이 보고서는 이러한 공격이 상호 연결된 글로벌 관계와 하이브리드 전쟁 전술을 가능하게 하는 새로운 기술 덕분에 증가하고 있음을 나타냅니다.
WTW a publié son dernier Indice de Risque Politique mettant en évidence les menaces croissantes de 'l'agression en zone grise' - des actions utilisées pour affaiblir les pays par des moyens autres que la guerre. Le rapport identifie les risques accrus pour les navires, les câbles sous-marins et les installations offshore, en particulier en raison du mépris de la Russie et de l'Iran pour les lois maritimes.
La recherche révèle que 69% des répondants ont subi des perturbations de la chaîne d'approvisionnement liées à la géopolitique en 2024, y compris des attaques en zone grise sur le transport maritime mondial. Trois principaux points de conflit ont été identifiés : les conflits militaires, les États fragiles et la polarisation idéologique.
Les préoccupations majeures comprennent la croissance de la flotte mondiale de l'ombre pour les exportations de pétrole, les interruptions de couverture d'assurance et les menaces émergentes dans le secteur aérospatial comme le brouillage du GPS. Le rapport suggère que ces attaques augmentent en raison des relations mondiales interconnectées et des nouvelles technologies permettant des tactiques de guerre hybride.
WTW hat seinen neuesten Politischen Risikoindex veröffentlicht, der auf die steigenden Bedrohungen durch 'Grauzonenaggressionen' hinweist - Handlungen, die dazu dienen, Länder mit Mitteln zu schwächen, die nicht zum Krieg führen. Der Bericht identifiziert zunehmende Risiken für Schiffe, Unterseekabel und Offshore-Anlagen, insbesondere durch das Missachten maritimer Gesetze durch Russland und den Iran.
Die Forschung zeigt, dass 69% der Befragten im Jahr 2024 geopolitisch bedingte Störungen in der Lieferkette erlebt haben, darunter Grauzonenangriffe auf die globale Schifffahrt. Drei Hauptkonfliktpunkte wurden identifiziert: militärische Konflikte, fragile Staaten und ideologische Polarisierung.
Wichtige Bedenken umfassen das Wachstum der globalen Schattenflotte für Ölexporte, Unterbrechungen der Versicherungsschutz und aufkommende Bedrohungen im Luft- und Raumfahrtsektor wie GPS-Störungen. Der Bericht schlägt vor, dass diese Angriffe aufgrund der miteinander verbundenen globalen Beziehungen und neuer Technologien, die hybride Kriegsführung ermöglichen, zunehmen.
- Company demonstrates leadership in risk assessment and analysis through comprehensive Political Risk Index
- Rising gray zone threats may increase insurance risks and potential claims
- Supply chain disruptions affecting 69% of respondents indicate significant business challenges
- Growing shadow fleet operations pose increased insurance and operational risks
Insights
The rising trend in gray zone warfare presents significant risks to global maritime commerce and insurance markets. The exponential growth of the shadow fleet for Russian oil exports introduces substantial operational risks, as these vessels operate without proper insurance and maintenance. This creates a domino effect on shipping rates, insurance premiums and overall maritime risk assessment.
The impact on marine insurance is particularly concerning, with 69% of companies reporting geopolitically-related supply chain disruptions. The increasing frequency of sophisticated attacks on critical infrastructure and shipping assets could lead to higher insurance premiums, more restrictive coverage terms and potentially create coverage gaps in traditional marine insurance policies.
For companies like WTW, this evolving risk landscape presents both challenges and opportunities. While it may increase claims and risk exposure, it also creates demand for specialized risk assessment services and new insurance products tailored to gray zone threats. The company's expertise in this area could drive growth in consulting and specialized coverage solutions.
The weaponization of maritime infrastructure represents a paradigm shift in global security threats. The targeting of undersea cables is particularly concerning as they carry approximately 97% of global internet traffic and are important for financial markets. The involvement of state actors like Russia and Iran adds complexity to risk assessment and mitigation strategies.
The emergence of shadow fleets operating outside traditional maritime frameworks poses systemic risks to shipping safety and environmental protection. These vessels' poor maintenance standards and deliberate AIS signal manipulation create blind spots in maritime security. The expansion of gray zone tactics to include cyber-attacks and drone operations indicates a sophisticated evolution in maritime threats that traditional security measures may struggle to address.
The proliferation of gray zone attacks is forcing a fundamental reassessment of maritime insurance models. Traditional war risk exclusions are becoming increasingly complex to apply in scenarios where attribution is deliberately ambiguous. The development of trade disruption insurance represents an important market adaptation, but coverage gaps remain a significant concern.
For WTW specifically, this evolving risk landscape creates opportunities to expand their advisory and broking services. Their expertise in political risk analysis positions them well to develop innovative insurance solutions and risk management strategies. The company's comprehensive understanding of gray zone threats could strengthen their market position in specialized risk coverage and consulting services.
LONDON, Dec. 10, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The threat to vessels, undersea cables, and offshore oil installations has increased due to the availability of advanced weapons and the willingness of certain states – particularly Russia and Iran – to disregard international maritime laws. This is just one identified emerging risk from ‘gray zone aggression’, meaning any action used to weaken a country by means short of war, according to the latest Political Risk Index from WTW (NASDAQ: WTW), a leading global advisory, broking, and solutions company.
This edition of the index is developed with input from WTW’s marine and aerospace teams, sectors notably vulnerable to gray zone attacks, alongside support from the WTW Research Network and the crisis management team, both experts in addressing gray zone aggression and global security risks. The index follows WTW’s annual political risk survey published earlier this year, which found that 69 percent of respondents were impacted by geopolitically-related supply chain disruptions in 2024, including gray zone attacks on global shipping.
WTW’s research identifies three primary types of gray zone flashpoints: military conflicts and rivalries (e.g. Ukraine, South China Sea), fragile states (e.g. Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Iraq), and ideological polarisation (e.g. political interference in Latin American elections). Examples of hybrid warfare include destruction of critical infrastructure, state cyber-attacks, weaponisation of migration, sponsorship of violent non-state actors, disinformation campaigns, and declared or undeclared economic sanctions. The report also observes an increasing trend in gray zone activities, partly driven by rising middle powers operating with limited military budgets.
Other findings include:
- Marine assets: The global shadow fleet, which has grown exponentially since Russia began using it to export oil, was identified as another threat in the report. The vessels lack standard P&I insurance, do not undergo regular maintenance, and habitually alter their AIS signals.
- Insurance impact: Gray zone attacks causing exclusions and cancellations of insurance cover lead to disruptions and rerouting, affecting businesses reliant on timely shipping. However, trade disruption insurance offers some recourse for impacted companies.
- Aerospace threat: There is an increasing possibility for the aerospace sector to become a key gray zone target, and attacks such as GPS jamming and spoofing are already happening.
Samuel Wilkin, director of political risk analytics, WTW said: “Without insurance, many ships will not sail and planes will not fly, so improving our understanding of gray zone risks is vital for the protection of people and assets and the health of global commerce. These attacks appear to have soared in recent years, for many reasons. One reason is that countries that are deeply interconnected by globalisation increasingly find themselves in adversarial relationships, and these deep interconnections offer many avenues for gray zone action, especially actions directed at globalised businesses. Another reason is that new technologies have enabled gray zone actions, including cyber-attacks and remote attacks by drones. Hybrid warfare is likely to continue to rise and evolve, so insurers need to be able to understand the implications of ambiguous gray zone activities to properly assess risk.”
The index can be downloaded here.
About WTW
At WTW (NASDAQ: WTW), we provide data-driven, insight-led solutions in the areas of people, risk and capital. Leveraging the global view and local expertise of our colleagues serving 140 countries and markets, we help organizations sharpen their strategy, enhance organizational resilience, motivate their workforce and maximize performance.
Working shoulder to shoulder with our clients, we uncover opportunities for sustainable success—and provide perspective that moves you.
Learn more at wtwco.com.
Media contact
Sarah Booker:
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FAQ
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