U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index: Truck freight volume, spend decline at slower pace

Rhea-AI Summary

The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index reports continued contraction in truck freight shipments and spending during Q3, though at a slower pace. Shipments decreased 1.9% quarter-over-quarter, marking the ninth consecutive quarterly decline, while spending dropped 1.4%. Regional variations were significant, with the West showing growth (shipments +1.1%, spending +4.4%) while the Southeast declined (shipments -3.0%, spending -3.3%). The Southwest experienced the largest quarterly volume decline at -7.2%. Year-over-year, both national shipments and spending were down approximately 21%.

Positive

• Slowest decline in shipments in over a year, suggesting potential market stabilization
• West region shows growth with 1.1% increase in shipments and 4.4% increase in spending
• Spending contracted less than shipments, indicating improving market health

Negative

• Ninth consecutive quarterly decrease in freight volume
• National shipments down 21.2% year-over-year
• National spending down 21.3% year-over-year
• Southwest region experienced sharp 7.2% quarterly decline in volume
• Southeast region showed declining trends in both spending (-3.3%) and shipments (-3.0%)

Insights

Market Research Analyst

The latest freight payment data reveals a complex but gradually stabilizing transportation market. While the ninth consecutive quarterly decline in shipments continues, the 1.9% drop represents the smallest decrease in over a year, suggesting potential market bottoming. Regional disparities are particularly noteworthy - the West shows encouraging signs with 4.4% spending growth and 1.1% volume increase, while the Southeast experienced contractions of over 3%.

The slower pace of decline in spending (1.4%) compared to shipments (1.9%) despite lower fuel costs indicates improving market fundamentals and pricing power. However, the substantial year-over-year declines of over 21% in both metrics suggest a full recovery remains distant. This data serves as a important economic indicator, reflecting broader trends in consumer demand, supply chain dynamics and regional economic health.

Third quarter marked the ninth consecutive quarterly decrease in shipments, but smallest drop in more than a year

MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Truck freight shipments and spending continued to contract in the third quarter, albeit at a slower pace than earlier this year, according to the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index. Shipments were down 1.9% compared to the previous quarter while spending dropped 1.4%. This was the ninth consecutive quarterly decrease in volume, but the smallest drop in more than a year.

“The latest data continues to show some positive developments for the freight market. However, there remain sequential declines nationwide, and in most regions,” said Bobby Holland, U.S. Bank director of freight business analytics. “Over the last two quarters, volume and spend contractions have lessened, but we’re waiting for clear evidence that the market has reached the bottom.”

The third quarter again highlighted the value of examining truck freight conditions by region, where conditions varied greatly. In the West, spending was up 4.4% over the previous quarter and volume increased 1.1%. Meanwhile, in the Southeast spending declined 3.3% and shipments were down 3.0%.

“It’s a positive sign that spending contracted less than shipments. With diesel fuel prices lower, the fact that pricing didn’t erode more tells me the market is getting healthier,” said Bob Costello, senior vice president and chief economist at the American Trucking Associations.

The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index measures quantitative changes in freight shipments and spend activity based on data from transactions processed through U.S. Bank Freight Payment, which processes more than $42 billion in freight payments annually for shippers and carriers across the U.S. The Index insights are provided to U.S. Bank customers to help them make business decisions and discover new opportunities.

Data

National Data
Shipments
Linked quarter: -1.9%
Year over year: -21.2%

Spending
Linked quarter: -1.4%
Year over year: -21.3%

Regional Data
West
Shipments
Linked quarter: 1.1%
Year over year: -10.9%

Spending
Linked quarter: 4.4%
Year over year: -18%

Stronger West Coast port volumes boosted truck freight levels. This marked the first time shipments have risen for two consecutive quarters in the West since 2021. The West also had by far greatest increase in truck freight spending during the third quarter.

Southwest
Shipments
Linked quarter: -7.2%
Year over year: -28.6%

Spending
Linked quarter: 0.1%
Year over year: -19.8%

Among regions, the Southwest had the largest quarterly decline in volume (-7.2%). This follows a 13.6% drop in the second quarter. Weaker economic activity – including the impacts of Hurricane Beryl – dampened truck freight activity in the region.

Midwest
Shipments
Linked quarter: 0.3%
Year over year: -19.2%

Spending
Linked quarter: -3.0%
Year over year: -22%

Positive housing starts in the Midwest helped boost truck freight shipments modestly during the third quarter. Spending, meanwhile, dropped for the third consecutive quarter.

Northeast
Shipments
Linked quarter: -2.8%
Year over year: -25.4%

Spending
Linked quarter: -2.5%
Year over year: -27.7%

This quarter’s contraction followed a 2.7% increase in shipments in the second quarter. Economic activity in the region has been mixed, with increases in residential construction but lower retail sales.

Southeast
Shipments
Linked quarter: -3.0%
Year over year: -23.1%

Spending
Linked quarter: -3.3%
Year over year: -20.8%

Spending on truck freight in the Southeast declined by the most among regions on a quarterly basis. The drop was due to falling volumes as well as lower fuel costs.

To see the full report including in-depth regional data, visit the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index website. For more than 25 years, organizations have turned to U.S. Bank Freight Payment for the service, reliability, and security of a full-service, federally regulated financial institution and payments provider. The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index measures quantitative changes in freight shipments and spend activity based on data from transactions processed through U.S. Bank Freight Payment.

About U.S. Bank

U.S. Bancorp, with more than 70,000 employees and $686 billion in assets as of September 30, 2024, is the parent company of U.S. Bank National Association. Headquartered in Minneapolis, the company serves millions of customers locally, nationally and globally through a diversified mix of businesses including consumer banking, business banking, commercial banking, institutional banking, payments and wealth management. U.S. Bancorp has been recognized for its approach to digital innovation, community partnerships and customer service, including being named one of the 2024 World’s Most Ethical Companies and Fortune’s most admired superregional bank. Learn more at usbank.com/about

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241031601511/en/

Todd Deutsch, U.S. Bank Public Affairs & Communications

todd.deutsch@usbank.com

Source: U.S. Bancorp

FAQ

What were the Q3 2023 changes in U.S. Bank's Freight Payment Index?

In Q3 2023, the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index showed shipments decreased 1.9% and spending dropped 1.4% compared to the previous quarter.

Which U.S. region showed the strongest freight performance in Q3 2023?

The West region showed the strongest performance with a 4.4% increase in spending and 1.1% increase in shipments quarter-over-quarter.

What was the year-over-year change in freight shipments for Q3 2023?

Freight shipments decreased 21.2% year-over-year according to the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index.

Which region had the largest quarterly decline in freight volume?

The Southwest region had the largest quarterly decline in freight volume with a 7.2% decrease.