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U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index: Truck freight market continues to contract

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U.S. Bank's Freight Payment Index reveals continued contraction in the truck freight market during Q4 2024, with shipment volume declining 4.7% quarter-over-quarter and spending dropping 2.2%. The Southeast experienced the steepest regional decline of 6.7% in both shipments and spending, impacted by hurricanes and weaker auto production.

Regional performance varied, with the Northeast showing the smallest shipment decline at 1.2% and a 0.9% increase in spending. Three regions avoided spending contractions: Northeast (+0.9%), West (+0.1%), and Southwest (flat). The index, which processes over $43 billion in annual freight payments, indicates tighter capacity as shipments fell more than spending despite lower fuel surcharges.

Year-over-year comparisons show significant declines, with national shipments down 15.7% and spending down 22.0%. Factory output softness and structural challenges continue to impact the industry, particularly affecting truck freight volumes.

L'indice di pagamento per il trasporto merci della U.S. Bank rivela una continua contrazione nel mercato del trasporto merci su camion durante il quarto trimestre del 2024, con un volume di spedizioni in calo del 4,7% rispetto al trimestre precedente e una diminuzione delle spese del 2,2%. Il Sud-est ha registrato il calo regionale più marcato, pari al 6,7% sia per quanto riguarda le spedizioni che le spese, a causa degli uragani e della produzione automobilistica più debole.

Le performance regionali sono state variabili, con il Nord-est che ha mostrato la diminuzione più contenuta delle spedizioni all'1,2% e un incremento delle spese dello 0,9%. Tre regioni hanno evitato contrazioni nelle spese: Nord-est (+0,9%), Ovest (+0,1%) e Sud-ovest (stabile). L'indice, che elabora oltre 43 miliardi di dollari in pagamenti annuali per i trasporti, indica una capacità più limitata poiché le spedizioni sono diminuite più delle spese, nonostante le riduzioni delle sovrattasse sul carburante.

I confronti anno su anno mostrano significativi cali, con le spedizioni nazionali in calo del 15,7% e le spese in diminuzione del 22,0%. La debolezza nella produzione industriale e le sfide strutturali continuano a influenzare il settore, colpendo in particolare i volumi di trasporto merci su camion.

El Índice de Pago por Fletes de U.S. Bank revela una continua contracción en el mercado de fletes por camión durante el cuarto trimestre de 2024, con un volumen de envíos que disminuyó un 4,7% en comparación con el trimestre anterior y un gasto que cayó un 2,2%. El Sureste experimentó la mayor disminución regional, con un 6,7% en envíos y gastos, afectado por huracanes y una producción automotriz más débil.

El rendimiento regional varió, con el Noreste mostrando la menor disminución en envíos, del 1,2%, y un incremento del 0,9% en gastos. Tres regiones evitaron contracciones en el gasto: Noreste (+0,9%), Oeste (+0,1%) y Suroeste (estable). El índice, que procesa más de 43 mil millones de dólares en pagos anuales de fletes, indica una capacidad más ajustada, ya que los envíos cayeron más que el gasto a pesar de las menores tarifas de combustible.

Las comparaciones interanuales muestran caídas significativas, con envíos nacionales a la baja un 15,7% y gastos reducidos un 22,0%. La debilidad en la producción fabril y los desafíos estructurales continúan impactando el sector, afectando particularmente los volúmenes de fletes por camión.

미국 은행의 화물 결제 지수는 2024년 4분기 트럭 화물 시장의 지속적인 축소를 나타내며, 화물량은 전분기 대비 4.7% 감소하고 지출은 2.2% 감소했습니다. 남동부 지역은 허리케인과 약한 자동차 생산의 영향을 받아 발송량과 지출 모두 6.7%로 가장 가파른 감소를 경험했습니다.

지역 성과는 다르게 나타났으며, 북동부는 발송량 감소가 1.2%로 가장 적고 지출이 0.9% 증가했습니다. 세 지역은 지출 축소를 피했습니다: 북동부 (+0.9%), 서부 (+0.1%), 남서부 (보합). 연간 화물 결제액이 430억 달러를 초과하는 이 지수는, 화물 발송이 지출보다 더 크게 줄어든 가운데 연료 할증료가 줄어들면서 더 타이트한 용량을 나타냅니다.

전년 대비 비교에서는 상당한 감소가 나타났으며, 국가 전체 화물 발송이 15.7% 감소하고 지출이 22.0% 감소했습니다. 공장 생산의 부진과 구조적인 문제들은 여전히 산업에 영향을 미치고 있으며, 특히 트럭 화물량에 영향을 주고 있습니다.

L'indice de paiement des transports de U.S. Bank révèle une contraction continue du marché du fret par camion durant le quatrième trimestre 2024, avec un volume d'expédition en baisse de 4,7% par rapport au trimestre précédent et des dépenses qui chutent de 2,2%. Le Sud-Est a subi la plus forte baisse régionale de 6,7% tant dans les expéditions que dans les dépenses, impacté par des ouragans et une production automobile plus faible.

Les performances régionales ont varié, le Nord-Est affichant la plus petite baisse des expéditions à 1,2% et une augmentation de 0,9% des dépenses. Trois régions ont évité des contractions des dépenses : Nord-Est (+0,9%), Ouest (+0,1%) et Sud-Ouest (stable). L'indice, qui traite plus de 43 milliards de dollars en paiements annuels pour le fret, indique une capacité plus stricte puisque les expéditions ont chuté plus que les dépenses, malgré une baisse des surcharges de carburant.

Les comparaisons d'une année sur l'autre montrent des baisses significatives, avec des expéditions nationales en baisse de 15,7% et des dépenses réduites de 22,0%. La faiblesse de la production des usines et les défis structurels continuent d'affecter le secteur, en touchant particulièrement les volumes de fret routier.

Der Frachtzahlungsindex der U.S. Bank zeigt eine anhaltende Kontraktion im Lkw-Frachtmarkt während des 4. Quartals 2024, wobei das Versandvolumen im Vergleich zum Vorquartal um 4,7% gesunken ist und die Ausgaben um 2,2% zurückgegangen sind. Der Südosten verzeichnete den stärksten regionalen Rückgang von 6,7% bei sowohl Versand als auch Ausgaben, bedingt durch Hurrikane und eine schwächere Automobilproduktion.

Die regionale Leistung variierte, wobei der Nordosten den geringsten Rückgang bei den Versendungen mit 1,2% und einen Anstieg bei den Ausgaben um 0,9% zeigte. Drei Regionen vermieden Ausgabenrückgänge: Nordosten (+0,9%), Westen (+0,1%) und Südwesten (stabil). Der Index, der jährlich über 43 Milliarden Dollar an Frachtzahlungen verarbeitet, weist auf eine engere Kapazität hin, da die Versandzahlen stärker gesunken sind als die Ausgaben, trotz niedrigerer Kraftstoffzuschläge.

Jahresvergleiche zeigen signifikante Rückgänge, mit nationalen Versendungen, die um 15,7% gesunken sind, und Ausgaben, die um 22,0% gesenkt wurden. Die Anfälligkeit der Industrieproduktion und strukturelle Herausforderungen treffen weiterhin den Sektor und beeinträchtigen insbesondere die Frachtvolumina der Lkw.

Positive
  • Three regions showed resilient spending (Northeast +0.9%, West +0.1%, Southwest flat)
  • Signs of increasing spending per truck indicating tighter capacity
Negative
  • National shipment volume declined 4.7% QoQ and 15.7% YoY
  • Overall spending decreased 2.2% QoQ and 22.0% YoY
  • Southeast region experienced sharp 6.7% decline in both shipments and spending
  • Factory output weakness affecting truck freight volumes
  • Continued softness in manufacturing activity and construction sector

Insights

The Q4 2024 freight data presents concerning trends for both U.S. Bank's $43 billion freight payment business and the broader economy. The 15.7% year-over-year decline in shipments, coupled with a steeper 22.0% drop in spending, signals significant deflationary pressures in the transportation sector.

The divergence between shipment declines (4.7%) and spending reductions (2.2%) quarter-over-quarter suggests a complex market dynamic. While this might appear positive for carriers as it indicates higher per-shipment revenue, it actually reveals troubling capacity constraints that could pressure smaller operators out of the market.

Regional variations tell a compelling economic story:

  • The Southeast's sharp decline (6.7%) reflects both weather disruptions and manufacturing weakness, particularly in the automotive sector
  • The Northeast's resilience (only 1.2% volume decline with 0.9% spending increase) indicates better industrial activity retention
  • The Midwest's 5.2% volume drop, following Q3 growth, suggests a reversal in manufacturing momentum

For U.S. Bank (USB), these trends could impact transaction fee revenue from their freight payment processing business. The sustained reduction in both volumes and spending may lead to decreased processing revenues, though the bank's diversified business model should help mitigate these effects.

Both volume and spending declined in fourth quarter

MINNEAPOLIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- The truck freight market closed out 2024 with further declines in shipments and spending, according to the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index. Fourth quarter shipment volume was down 4.7% compared to the prior quarter while spending dropped 2.2%.

“It’s clear there are both cyclical and structural challenges remaining as we look for a truck freight market reboot,” said Bob Costello, senior vice president and chief economist at the American Trucking Associations. “For instance, factory output softness – which has a disproportionate impact on truck freight volumes – is currently weighing heavily on our industry.”

Fourth-quarter shipment volume was low across all regions. Hurricanes impacted freight activity in the Southeast, where shipments dropped 6.7%, the most of all regions. The Northeast had the smallest decline at 1.2% with the West just behind with a contraction of 2.1%. For spending, three regions avoided contractions, with Northeast spend up 0.9%, the West up 0.1% and the Southwest flat (0.0%).

“While this quarter’s Index revealed spending overall on truck freight continues to decline, we did see some signs that spending per truck is increasing,” said Bobby Holland, U.S. Bank director of freight business analytics. “Shipments falling more than spending – even with lower fuel surcharges – suggests tighter capacity.”

The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index measures quantitative changes in freight shipments and spend activity based on data from transactions processed through U.S. Bank Freight Payment, which processes more than $43 billion in freight payments annually for shippers and carriers across the U.S. The Index insights are provided to U.S. Bank customers to help them make business decisions and discover new opportunities.

Data
National
Shipments
Linked quarter: -4.7%
Year over year: -15.7%

Spending
Linked quarter: -2.2%
Year over year: -22.0%

Regional
West
Shipments
Linked quarter: -2.1%
Year over year: -10.1%

Spending
Linked quarter: 0.1%
Year over year: -18.2%

The decline in shipments in the West followed two consecutive quarters of volume growth. The fact that shippers spent 0.1% more to have 2.1% less moved suggests tighter trucking capacity in the region.

Southwest
Shipments
Linked quarter: -5.1%
Year over year: -17.2%

Spending
Linked quarter: 0.0%
Year over year: -17.5%

Volumes declined in the Southwest for the third consecutive quarter, partly the result of soft demand for manufactured goods and slower construction activity.

Midwest
Shipments
Linked quarter: -5.2%
Year over year: -16.2%

Spending
Linked quarter: -1.7%
Year over year: -24.2%

Following modest volume growth in the third quarter, shipments dropped 5.2% in the final months of 2024. Softer manufacturing activity and weak home construction in the region impacted truck freight activity.

Northeast
Shipments
Linked quarter: -1.2%
Year over year: -18.6%

Spending
Linked quarter: 0.9%
Year over year: -25.1%

The Northeast had the largest gain in truck freight spending, suggesting tighter capacity in the region. Recent volume declines in the region have been modest following a 17.5% decline in the first quarter of 2024.

Southeast
Shipments
Linked quarter: -6.7%
Year over year: -16.1%

Spending
Linked quarter: -6.7%
Year over year: -22.9%

The Southeast had the steepest drops in volume and spending among all regions. Weaker auto production and in the broader factory sector contributed to these declines.

To see the full report including in-depth regional data, visit the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index website. For more than 25 years, organizations have turned to U.S. Bank Freight Payment for the service, reliability, and security of a full-service, federally regulated financial institution and payments provider. The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index measures quantitative changes in freight shipments and spend activity based on data from transactions processed through U.S. Bank Freight Payment. The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index source data is based on the actual transaction payment date and contains volume from domestic freight modes (truckload and less-than-truckload) and is both seasonally and calendar adjusted.

About U.S. Bank

U.S. Bancorp, with more than 70,000 employees and $678 billion in assets as of December 31, 2024, is the parent company of U.S. Bank National Association. Headquartered in Minneapolis, the company serves millions of customers locally, nationally and globally through a diversified mix of businesses including consumer banking, business banking, commercial banking, institutional banking, payments and wealth management. U.S. Bancorp has been recognized for its approach to digital innovation, community partnerships and customer service, including being named one of the 2024 World’s Most Ethical Companies and one of Fortune’s most admired superregional banks. To learn more, please visit the U.S. Bancorp website at usbank.com and click on “About Us.”

Todd Deutsch, U.S. Bank Public Affairs and Communications

todd.deutsch@usbank.com

Source: U.S. Bancorp

FAQ

What were the key findings of U.S. Bank's Freight Payment Index for Q4 2024?

The index showed a 4.7% decline in shipment volume and a 2.2% decrease in spending compared to Q3 2024, with national year-over-year declines of 15.7% in shipments and 22.0% in spending.

Which U.S. region showed the strongest performance in freight spending for Q4 2024?

The Northeast region showed the strongest performance with a 0.9% increase in freight spending, while maintaining the lowest shipment decline of 1.2%.

How did the Southeast region perform in Q4 2024's freight market?

The Southeast experienced the largest regional decline, with both shipments and spending dropping 6.7%, affected by hurricanes and weaker auto production.

What factors contributed to the freight market contraction in Q4 2024?

Factory output softness, weak manufacturing activity, slower construction activity, and structural challenges were key factors contributing to the market contraction.

What does the Q4 2024 data suggest about trucking capacity?

The data suggests tighter trucking capacity, as shipments fell more than spending despite lower fuel surcharges, indicating increased spending per truck.

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