Omdia Forecasts Nintendo Switch 2 Will Sell 14.7 Million Units in 2025
Nintendo Switch 2 is forecasted by Omdia to sell 14.7 million units globally in 2025 following its June 5 launch date, surpassing its predecessor's first-year sales by 10%. The strong forecast is supported by an active user base of 105 million Switch consoles at the end of 2024.
The launch will be backed by Mario Kart World, an exclusive title showing significant improvements over Mario Kart 8, which has been purchased by nearly 50% of Switch owners. Despite the strong start, Omdia predicts lower sales by year 4 compared to the original Switch, which benefited from COVID lockdowns.
Nintendo is expected to maintain 85% market share in handheld gaming sales volumes in 2025, despite competition from Steam Deck and PlayStation Portal. However, the company faces challenges in demonstrating the value proposition of Switch 2, given the extensive library of over 100 first-party titles available on the original Switch.
Nintendo Switch 2 è prevista da Omdia per vendere 14,7 milioni di unità a livello globale nel 2025 dopo la sua data di lancio del 5 giugno, superando le vendite del primo anno del suo predecessore del 10%. Questa previsione ottimistica è supportata da una base attiva di 105 milioni di console Switch alla fine del 2024.
Il lancio sarà supportato da Mario Kart World, un titolo esclusivo che mostra miglioramenti significativi rispetto a Mario Kart 8, acquistato da quasi il 50% dei possessori di Switch. Nonostante un avvio forte, Omdia prevede vendite inferiori nel quarto anno rispetto alla Switch originale, che ha beneficiato dei lockdown dovuti al COVID.
È previsto che Nintendo mantenga un 85% di quota di mercato nelle vendite di console portatili nel 2025, nonostante la concorrenza da Steam Deck e PlayStation Portal. Tuttavia, l'azienda deve affrontare sfide nel dimostrare il valore della Switch 2, data l'ampia libreria di oltre 100 titoli di prima parte disponibili sulla Switch originale.
Nintendo Switch 2 se prevé que venda 14.7 millones de unidades a nivel global en 2025 tras su fecha de lanzamiento el 5 de junio, superando las ventas del primer año de su predecesora en un 10%. Esta fuerte previsión está respaldada por una base activa de 105 millones de consolas Switch a finales de 2024.
El lanzamiento estará respaldado por Mario Kart World, un título exclusivo que muestra mejoras significativas sobre Mario Kart 8, que ha sido adquirido por casi el 50% de los propietarios de Switch. A pesar de un fuerte comienzo, Omdia predice ventas más bajas en el cuarto año en comparación con la Switch original, que se benefició de los confinamientos por COVID.
Se espera que Nintendo mantenga un 85% de cuota de mercado en volúmenes de ventas de juegos portátiles en 2025, a pesar de la competencia de Steam Deck y PlayStation Portal. Sin embargo, la empresa enfrenta desafíos para demostrar la propuesta de valor de Switch 2, dada la extensa biblioteca de más de 100 títulos de primera parte disponibles en la Switch original.
닌텐도 스위치 2는 Omdia에 의해 2025년 전 세계에서 1,470만 대 판매될 것으로 예상되며, 6월 5일 출시 이후 전작의 첫 해 판매량을 10% 초과할 것으로 보입니다. 이 강력한 예측은 2024년 말까지 1억 5백만 대의 스위치 콘솔의 활발한 사용자 기반에 의해 뒷받침됩니다.
출시는 마리오 카트 월드라는 독점 타이틀로 지원되며, 이는 마리오 카트 8에 비해 상당한 개선을 보여줍니다. 이 타이틀은 스위치 소유자의 거의 50%가 구매했습니다. 강력한 출발에도 불구하고 Omdia는 COVID 봉쇄로 혜택을 본 원래 스위치에 비해 4년 차에 판매가 감소할 것으로 예측하고 있습니다.
닌텐도는 2025년 휴대용 게임 판매량에서 85%의 시장 점유율을 유지할 것으로 예상되지만, Steam Deck과 PlayStation Portal의 경쟁이 있습니다. 그러나 회사는 원래 스위치에서 제공되는 100개 이상의 1인칭 타이틀의 방대한 라이브러리를 고려할 때 스위치 2의 가치 제안을 입증하는 데 어려움을 겪고 있습니다.
Nintendo Switch 2 est prévu par Omdia pour vendre 14,7 millions d'unités dans le monde en 2025 après sa date de lancement le 5 juin, dépassant les ventes de la première année de son prédécesseur de 10%. Cette prévision optimiste est soutenue par une base d'utilisateurs active de 105 millions de consoles Switch à la fin de 2024.
Le lancement sera soutenu par Mario Kart World, un titre exclusif montrant des améliorations significatives par rapport à Mario Kart 8, qui a été acheté par près de 50 % des propriétaires de Switch. Malgré un bon départ, Omdia prévoit des ventes inférieures au quatrième année par rapport à la Switch originale, qui a bénéficié des confinements liés au COVID.
Nintendo devrait maintenir une part de marché de 85% dans les volumes de ventes de jeux portables en 2025, malgré la concurrence de Steam Deck et PlayStation Portal. Cependant, l'entreprise fait face à des défis pour démontrer la proposition de valeur de la Switch 2, compte tenu de l'importante bibliothèque de plus de 100 titres de première partie disponibles sur la Switch originale.
Nintendo Switch 2 wird von Omdia prognostiziert, 14,7 Millionen Einheiten weltweit im Jahr 2025 zu verkaufen nach dem Launch am 5. Juni, was die Verkaufszahlen des ersten Jahres seines Vorgängers um 10% übertrifft. Diese starke Prognose wird durch eine aktive Nutzerbasis von 105 Millionen Switch-Konsolen Ende 2024 unterstützt.
Der Launch wird von Mario Kart World, einem exklusiven Titel, der signifikante Verbesserungen gegenüber Mario Kart 8 zeigt, unterstützt, das von fast 50% der Switch-Besitzer gekauft wurde. Trotz des starken Starts prognostiziert Omdia im vierten Jahr niedrigere Verkaufszahlen im Vergleich zur ursprünglichen Switch, die von den COVID-Lockdowns profitierte.
Es wird erwartet, dass Nintendo im Jahr 2025 einen 85% Marktanteil im Verkauf von Handheld-Gaming beibehält, trotz der Konkurrenz durch Steam Deck und PlayStation Portal. Das Unternehmen steht jedoch vor Herausforderungen, den Wert von Switch 2 zu demonstrieren, da es eine umfangreiche Bibliothek von über 100 First-Party-Titeln auf der ursprünglichen Switch gibt.
- Projected 14.7M unit sales in 2025, 10% higher than predecessor's first year
- Strong existing user base of 105M active Switch consoles
- Dominant 85% market share expected in handheld gaming segment for 2025
- Strategic launch with Mario Kart World exclusive title
- Expected lower sales by year 4 compared to original Switch
- Increasing competition from Steam Deck and PlayStation Portal
- Challenge in demonstrating upgrade value due to extensive original Switch game library
Insights
Omdia's forecast of
The forecast is supported by Nintendo's exceptional foundation: an estimated 105 million active Switch users representing a massive potential upgrade path. The strategic launch of Mario Kart World as a Switch 2 exclusive demonstrates Nintendo's understanding of leveraging their strongest IP, considering nearly
However, Omdia's long-term projection indicates Switch 2 will underperform its predecessor by year four - a critical insight that tempers expectations. This forecast acknowledges the original Switch benefited from unprecedented COVID-related gaming surge that won't be replicated.
Despite emerging competition from Steam Deck and PlayStation Portal, Omdia projects Nintendo will maintain a dominant
Switch 2 vs Switch installed base over time, cycle-aligned, millions
This would put the Switch 2 ahead of its predecessor by around
A key first-party title also supports Omdia’s forecast. Mario Kart World headlines Nintendo’s first-party line-up for 2025, is exclusive to Nintendo Switch 2, and offers a visible generational leap over Mario Kart 8. Close to one in two Switch owners have purchased predecessor Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, making it the ideal sequel to attach to the new hardware.
However, although Switch 2 will exceed sales in the first year for the original Switch in 2017, Omdia believes that by year 4, Switch 2 will have sold fewer units than at its predecessor’s equivalent point. This is primarily down to the fourth year in the original Switch’s cycle coinciding with Covid lockdowns, which provided an enormous boost to the games industry.
Since Nintendo revitalized the dedicated handheld gaming devices market with the original Switch, new entrants such as Steam Deck, PlayStation Portal, and other PC handheld gaming devices have expanded options for players.
Yet the Switch and Switch 2 remain the only standalone platforms in this space – players must purchase the hardware to access Nintendo’s ecosystem of content. As a result, the Switch 2 is poised to cement Nintendo’s leadership in this space. Omdia’s Games Handhelds Sales Metrics Database currently forecasts that both Nintendo Switch and Nintendo Switch 2 hardware will command a dominant
However, Switch 2 will not be without challenges, not least in terms of Nintendo competing with itself throughout the lifecycle of the device. The company has released over 100 first-party titles for the original Switch, with around three-quarters of them selling at least 1 million copies each.
These games will be brought forward to the new generation, but most were already highly polished on the existing Nintendo Switch hardware.
“First-party software is the primary content driver for Switch hardware adoption, a stark contrast to PlayStation and Xbox,” said James McWhirter, Senior Analyst in Omdia’s Games team. “Nintendo will need to work hard to communicate a clear generational leap with the Switch 2 throughout its life cycle, as its new games will exist alongside the extensive library of previous titles that do not require a console upgrade for users to enjoy.”
ABOUT OMDIA
Omdia, part of Informa TechTarget, Inc. (Nasdaq: TTGT), is a technology research and advisory group. Our deep knowledge of tech markets combined with our actionable insights empower organizations to make smart growth decisions.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250402932786/en/
Fasiha Khan: fasiha.khan@omdia.com
Source: Omdia
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