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TotalEnergies Publishes Its Annual Report on Scenarios for the Global Energy System

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TotalEnergies has released its 6th annual Energy Outlook, presenting three scenarios for global energy system evolution through 2050. The report introduces a new 'Trends' scenario alongside existing Momentum and Rupture scenarios, reflecting current trajectories and anticipated developments. The report highlights that 4.5 billion people currently lack adequate energy access for proper development, with projections showing a need to quadruple energy availability in least developed countries by 2050 due to population growth. The outlook emphasizes the ongoing energy transition, noting increased renewable energy adoption since 2015, while addressing challenges like continued coal demand growth and the need to accelerate energy intensity improvements beyond the current 1.4% annual rate.

TotalEnergies ha pubblicato il suo 6° Rapporto Annuale sulle Energie, presentando tre scenari per l'evoluzione del sistema energetico globale fino al 2050. Il rapporto introduce un nuovo 'scenario tendenziale' accanto agli scenari di Momento e Rottura esistenti, riflettendo le traiettorie attuali e gli sviluppi previsti. Il rapporto sottolinea che 4,5 miliardi di persone attualmente non hanno accesso adeguato all'energia per uno sviluppo corretto, con proiezioni che mostrano la necessità di quadruplicare la disponibilità energetica nei paesi meno sviluppati entro il 2050 a causa della crescita della popolazione. L'outlook enfatizza la transizione energetica in corso, notando un aumento dell'adozione di energie rinnovabili dal 2015, affrontando nel contempo sfide come la continua crescita della domanda di carbone e la necessità di accelerare i miglioramenti dell'intensità energetica oltre l'attuale tasso annuale del 1,4%.

TotalEnergies ha publicado su 6° Informe Anual sobre Energía, presentando tres escenarios para la evolución del sistema energético global hasta 2050. El informe introduce un nuevo 'escenario de tendencias' junto a los escenarios de Momentum y Ruptura existentes, reflejando las trayectorias actuales y los desarrollos anticipados. El informe destaca que 4.5 mil millones de personas actualmente carecen de acceso adecuado a la energía para un desarrollo adecuado, con proyecciones que muestran la necesidad de cuadruplicar la disponibilidad energética en los países menos desarrollados para 2050 debido al crecimiento de la población. El outlook enfatiza la transición energética en curso, señalando un aumento en la adopción de energías renovables desde 2015, al tiempo que aborda desafíos como el continuo crecimiento de la demanda de carbón y la necesidad de acelerar las mejoras de la intensidad energética más allá de la tasa actual del 1.4% anual.

TotalEnergies은 2050년까지의 글로벌 에너지 시스템 진화를 위한 세 가지 시나리오를 제시하는 6번째 연례 에너지 전망 보고서를 발표했습니다. 이 보고서는 기존의 모멘텀 및 파열 시나리오와 함께 새로운 '트렌드 시나리오'를 소개하며, 현재의 경로와 예상되는 발전을 반영합니다. 보고서는 현재 45억 명의 인구가 적절한 발전을 위한 충분한 에너지 접근이 부족하다고 강조하며, 인구 증가로 인해 2050년까지 개발 도상국에서 에너지 가용성을 4배로 늘려야 할 필요성이 있음을 보여줍니다. 전망은 2015년 이후 재생 가능 에너지 채택이 증가하고 있다는 점을 강조하며, 석탄 수요의 지속적 증가와 현재 연간 1.4%의 에너지 강도 개선 속도를 초과하여 이를 가속화해야 할 필요성과 같은 도전 과제를 다룹니다.

TotalEnergies a publié son 6e Rapport Annuel sur l'Énergie, présentant trois scénarios pour l'évolution du système énergétique mondial jusqu'en 2050. Le rapport introduit un nouveau 'scénario de tendances' aux côtés des scénarios de Momentum et de Rupture existants, reflétant les trajectoires actuelles et les développements anticipés. Le rapport souligne que 4,5 milliards de personnes manquent actuellement d'un accès adéquat à l'énergie pour un développement approprié, avec des projections montrant la nécessité de quatre fois plus de disponibilité énergétique dans les pays les moins développés d'ici 2050 en raison de la croissance démographique. Le bilan met en avant la transition énergétique en cours, notant une adoption accrue des énergies renouvelables depuis 2015, tout en abordant des défis tels que la croissance continue de la demande de charbon et la nécessité d'accélérer les améliorations de l'intensité énergétique au-delà du taux annuel actuel de 1,4 %.

TotalEnergies hat seinen 6. Jahresbericht zur Energie veröffentlicht, der drei Szenarien für die Entwicklung des globalen Energiesystems bis 2050 präsentiert. Der Bericht führt ein neues 'Trend-Szenario' neben den bestehenden Szenarien Momentum und Ruptur ein, das die aktuellen Trajektorien und erwarteten Entwicklungen widerspiegelt. Der Bericht hebt hervor, dass derzeit 4,5 Milliarden Menschen keinen angemessenen Zugang zu Energie für eine ordentliche Entwicklung haben, wobei die Prognosen zeigen, dass die Verfügbarkeit von Energie in den am wenigsten entwickelten Ländern bis 2050 vervierfacht werden muss aufgrund des Bevölkerungswachstums. Der Ausblick betont den fortschreitenden Energiewandel und verzeichnet eine zunehmende Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien seit 2015, während er Herausforderungen wie das anhaltende Wachstum der Kohlenachfrage und die Notwendigkeit, die Verbesserung der Energieintensität über die derzeitige jährliche Rate von 1,4% hinaus zu beschleunigen, anspricht.

Positive
  • Development of new comprehensive energy scenario analysis enhancing strategic planning
  • Recognition of renewable energy growth and decarbonization technology advancement
  • Identification of cost-competitive clean technologies ready for large-scale deployment
Negative
  • Current energy transition pace insufficient to meet Paris Agreement goals
  • Infrastructure constraints limiting large-scale deployment of clean technologies
  • Continued growth in coal demand despite environmental concerns

Insights

The publication of TotalEnergies' Energy Outlook 2024 provides critical insights into global energy transition pathways but lacks immediate market-moving implications. The report introduces a new "Trends" scenario alongside existing Momentum and Rupture scenarios, projecting temperature increases of 2.6-2.7% by 2100 based on current trajectories.

The analysis highlights significant structural challenges: 4.5 billion people currently lack adequate energy access and developing nations will need 4x more energy by 2050. Energy intensity improvements of 1.4% annually fall short of COP28 targets of 3-4%. While renewable energy adoption is accelerating, particularly in solar and EVs, infrastructure constraints and geopolitical tensions continue to limit widespread deployment.

For investors, this report reinforces TotalEnergies' strategic positioning in both traditional and renewable energy markets, suggesting a balanced approach to energy transition while maintaining significant hydrocarbon exposure in the medium term.

TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2024

PARIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Regulatory News:

To contribute to the public debate on the energy transition, TotalEnergies (Paris:TTE) (LSE:TTE) (NYSE:TTE) is publishing the 6th edition of its "TotalEnergies Energy Outlook", which presents three scenarios for the possible evolution of the demand and the global energy system up to 2050 (documents available at this link).

TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2024

This year, in addition to the Momentum and Rupture scenarios presented in previous editions of its Energy Outlook, TotalEnergies has developed a new scenario, Trends, which reflects the current trajectory of the various countries up to 2030 and our anticipation of technological developments and public policies in line with current trends. This scenario enables us to present the expected evolution of the energy system up to 2050 in line with current trends and the efforts still required to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement.

Access to energy essential to meet development needs

Today, around 4.5 billion people have access to a level of energy that is below what is deemed necessary for satisfactory human development, particularly in terms of access to healthcare and education.

Demographic forecasts indicate that the world's population will increase by 1.7 billion by 2050, in India and the Global South. Ensuring sufficient access to energy for the world's entire population today requires tripling the energy available in the least developed countries. Taking into account their expected population growth, by 2050 they will need four times more energy than today. Our collective challenge is therefore to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while responding to the legitimate demand for more energy for the population of emerging countries.

An energy transition underway but which ought to be accelerated

Since 2000, we have experienced a decoupling between GDP growth and energy demand growth. Electricity has grown faster than the other energies, and renewables have accelerated their growth since 2015. However, demand for coal, which is often domestic and inexpensive, continues to grow, and energy intensity gains (1.4% per year observed over 2000-2022) remain below the ambition set at COP28 (3% to 4% per year).

Analysis by geographical zone shows that rising living standards, particularly in India and China, are the main drivers of the increase in energy demand in recent years.

Two major developments occurred in the last 20 years that will shape the energy transition: the shale gas and oil revolution in the United States has transformed the energy landscape in the United States and around the world; and a few low-carbon technologies, in particular solar panels and electric vehicles, have made sufficient progress to be deployed on a large scale and be cost-competitive for consumers, provided that, at the same time, electricity networks receive sufficient investment.

3 scenarios for the next thirty years

The Trends scenario reflects the current trajectory of the various countries up to 2030 and incorporates our anticipation of future technological and public policy developments in line with current trends. It accounts for the recent acceleration in the penetration of mature decarbonization technologies: solar and wind power to produce electricity, electric vehicles and heat pumps to use it, particularly in China. However, infrastructure constraints (in particular electricity grids) and geopolitical tensions are limiting their large-scale deployment. This scenario yields an estimated temperature increase between +2.6° and +2.7°C by 2100.

TotalEnergies' Momentum scenario is a forward-looking approach integrating the decarbonization strategies of NZ50 countries, as well as the NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) of other countries. It implies: (i) electrification of final demand in NZ50 countries and China, (ii) phasing-out coal in NZ50 countries, a sharp reduction in China and only slight growth in this energy source in the Global South countries, (iii) the use of natural gas as a transitional energy source for electricity and industry in all countries, and (iv) the deployment of new energies in non-electrifiable sectors (e.g. decarbonized hydrogen in industry and transport, sustainable fuels in aviation and marine) in NZ50 countries and China. In this scenario, fossil fuels still cover half of the growth in energy demand in the Global South, due to insufficient low-carbon investment. This scenario yields an estimated temperature increase between +2.2° and +2.3°C by 2100.

Rupture is a normative scenario designed to achieve a temperature increase of less than 2°C by 2100. For example, moving from Trends to Rupture requires an 80% increase in installed solar and wind power capacity in India and the Global South by 2030. Beyond 2040, all decarbonization levers are applied globally, in particular the deployment of new energies and CCUS. In this scenario, decarbonized technologies are deployed globally according to their merit curve. This scenario yields an estimated temperature increase between +1.7° and +1.8°C by 2100.

To move from Trends to Rupture, the world should collectively give priority to existing technologies offering an acceptable abatement cost. In particular, public decision-makers should step up international cooperation to ensure that the cheapest technologies are available globally, and that financial instruments adapted to developing countries are deployed.

"To keep pace with the growth in energy demand which is essential to the legitimate improvement in the standard of living of the emerging countries’ population while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions, public policies and the players in the energy chain must give priority to mature and sufficiently affordable low-carbon technologies and cooperate to deploy them across the globe. This is the way to combine economic and social development with the acceleration of the energy transition," said Aurélien Hamelle, Managing Director Strategy & Sustainability.

The main messages of the TotalEnergies Energy Outlook 2024 are as follows:

 

1. Reliable and affordable energy access is essential to Human Development, and yet remains widely unequal across countries.

 

2. Over the last 20 years,

  1. the energy transition has started globally
  2. most of the energy demand growth was driven by increasing living standards
  3. the US shale revolution has transformed the energy landscape in the U.S. and worldwide
  4. A few technologies to decarbonize energy supply are now mature, and start to be deployed

3. Looking forward to 2050, we have developed 3 scenarios, differentiated by their depth of decarbonization: Trends, Momentum et Rupture

  1. The “Trends” scenario, which takes into account current trajectories of the various countries up to 2030 and our anticipation of technological developments and public policies according to current trends, yields a +2.6-2.7°C temperature increase by 2100, above the target agreed in Paris.
  2. The “Momentum” scenario assumes that countries committed to net carbon neutrality by 2050 reach their objective and yields a +2.2-2.3°C temperature increase by 2100, still above the target agreed in Paris.
  3. The “Rupture” scenario proposes a path to remain well-below +2°C by 2100 (+1.7-1.8°C). To achieve that objective, existing decarbonation technologies are deployed rapidly and globally: advanced economies support the Global South’s energy transition.

4. Green electrification is the core of the energy transition: it reduces emissions and losses in the energy system (from 60% today to ~40% in Rupture).

 

5. Moving from Trends to Rupture requires pragmatically deploying decarbonization technologies globally following their cost and technology merit curve. Priority should be given to

  1. facilitating global substitution of electricity for fossil fuels in final demand: EVs, heat pumps – in every country, and
  2. substituting renewables and flexible gas for coal in electricity generation – in every country
  3. accelerating the reduction of methane emissions from fossil fuel production

6. This in turns would require policy makers focus on

  1. Allocating subsidies and setting mandates following the cost and technology merit curve, to minimize cost to their citizens, hence build societal engagement.
  2. Eliminating bottlenecks in developing supporting infrastructure, in particular electricity grids, and accelerating connection to this infrastructure
  3. Strengthening international cooperation to deploy the cheapest available technologies, and develop financial instruments in developing countries

About TotalEnergies
TotalEnergies is a global integrated energy company that produces and markets energies: oil and biofuels, natural gas and green gases, renewables and electricity. Our more than 100,000 employees are committed to provide as many people as possible with energy that is more reliable, more affordable and more sustainable. Active in about 120 countries, TotalEnergies places sustainability at the heart of its strategy, its projects and its operations.

@TotalEnergies TotalEnergies TotalEnergies TotalEnergies

Cautionary Note
The terms “TotalEnergies”, “TotalEnergies company” or “Company” in this document are used to designate TotalEnergies SE and the consolidated entities that are directly or indirectly controlled by TotalEnergies SE. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” may also be used to refer to these entities or to their employees. The entities in which TotalEnergies SE directly or indirectly owns a shareholding are separate legal entities. This document may contain forward-looking information and statements that are based on a number of economic data and assumptions made in a given economic, competitive and regulatory environment. They may prove to be inaccurate in the future and are subject to a number of risk factors. Neither TotalEnergies SE nor any of its subsidiaries assumes any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking information or statement, objectives or trends contained in this document whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Information concerning risk factors, that may affect TotalEnergies’ financial results or activities is provided in the most recent Universal Registration Document, the French-language version of which is filed by TotalEnergies SE with the French securities regulator Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF), and in the Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Outlook
The TotalEnergies Outlook (TEO) sets out potential scenarios of energy mix evolution at world and regional levels until 2050, and the associated likely increase in global average temperature by the end of the century. It is based on in-house work conducted by the strategy and climate teams of TotalEnergies, and on data and input from third-party forecasters, data providers and consultants. The projections contained in the Trends outlook and the Momentum and Rupture scenarios rely on a set of assumptions that may or may not materialize in the future. The TEO is meant to contribute to the debate and discussions around the energy transition and, while it is taken into consideration by TotalEnergies to inform its strategic decisions, the TEO is not a presentation of TotalEnergies’ strategy, which is presented in other publications (Sustainability and Climate Report, Investors’ presentations).

TotalEnergies Contacts

Media Relations: +33 (0)1 47 44 46 99 l presse@totalenergies.com l @TotalEnergiesPR

Investor Relations: +33 (0)1 47 44 46 46 l ir@totalenergies.com

Source: TotalEnergies SE

FAQ

What are the three scenarios presented in TotalEnergies' (TTE) 2024 Energy Outlook?

TotalEnergies' 2024 Energy Outlook presents three scenarios: Trends (new), Momentum, and Rupture, analyzing possible evolutions of global energy systems through 2050.

What temperature increase does TotalEnergies' (TTE) Trends scenario predict by 2100?

The Trends scenario predicts a temperature increase between +2.6°C and +2.7°C by 2100.

How much does energy access need to increase in least developed countries by 2050 according to TotalEnergies (TTE)?

According to the report, least developed countries will need four times more energy than today by 2050 to meet development needs.

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