TrueCar Releases Analysis of March and First Quarter Industry Sales

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) reports that total new vehicle sales in March 2023 are expected to reach 1,356,762 units, reflecting a 7% increase year-over-year and a 4% rise from February 2023. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) is projected at 14.7 million, up 8.5% from last year. Fleet sales are anticipated to surge by 31% from March 2022 and 13.5% from February 2023, highlighting a significant recovery. Retail sales are also on the rise, with Nissan expected to lead fleet contributions. New vehicle prices are projected to increase by 5.6% compared to last year while interest rates remain stable at around 6.97% for new and 11% for used vehicles.

Positive

• Total industry sales expected to rise 7% YoY in March 2023.
• Fleet sales projected to increase by 31% YoY and 13.5% from February 2023.
• Retail sales anticipated to rise 3% YoY, indicating a recovery.

Negative

• Used vehicle sales expected to decline by 3% YoY.

Fleet sales are at their highest in three years

SANTA MONICA, Calif., March 29, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,356,762 units in March 2023, up 7% from a year ago and up 4% from February 2023, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14.7 million, up 8.5% from March 2022. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,131,166 units, up 3% from a year ago and up 2% from February 2023.

"While we're seeing a modest recovery in retail sales, a key focal point this month will be the return of fleet sales," said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Fleet growth has outpaced the retail side as manufacturers find willing and capable commercial buyers. Unit volume and share of sales are on pace to return to pre-pandemic levels. Nissan is expected to be a large contributor to fleet sales this month as they close out their fiscal year."

"Honda sales are tracking to be their best result in a year and a half," said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "They've been able to balance an inventory recovery while keeping their portfolio fresh with new model introductions in critical segments."

Additional March Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

• Total sales for March 2023 are expected to be up 7% from a year ago and up 4% from February 2023 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for March 2023 are expected to be up 31% from a year ago and up 13.5% from February 2023 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to be up 5.6% from a year ago and even with February 2023.
• Total SAAR is expected to be up 8.5% from a year ago at about 14.7 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for March 2023 are expected to reach 3.4 million, down 3% from a year ago and up 6% from February 2023.
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 6.97%, on par with February 2023 and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 11%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for March 2023 is about 69 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is about 70 months.
• Quarterly average transaction price is projected to be up 4% from a year ago and about the same as Q4 2022.
• Quarterly incentive spend is down 9% from a year ago and up 27% from Q4 2022.

 

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Mar 2023 Forecast	Mar 2022 Actual	Feb 2023 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	32,455	30,561	26,808	6.2 %	6.2 %	21.1 %	7.6 %
Daimler	28,745	28,764	26,624	-0.1 %	-0.1 %	8.0 %	-4.0 %
Ford	166,606	158,500	156,377	5.1 %	5.1 %	6.5 %	-5.3 %
GM	225,784	204,829	185,560	10.2 %	10.2 %	21.7 %	8.2 %
Honda	114,503	108,075	83,247	5.9 %	5.9 %	37.5 %	22.3 %
Hyundai	75,498	63,983	61,252	18.0 %	18.0 %	23.3 %	9.6 %
Kia	69,784	59,524	60,859	17.2 %	17.2 %	14.7 %	1.9 %
Nissan	99,089	79,665	72,393	24.4 %	24.4 %	36.9 %	21.7 %
Stellantis	135,681	143,376	119,770	-5.4 %	-5.4 %	13.3 %	0.7 %
Subaru	52,541	43,322	45,790	21.3 %	21.3 %	14.7 %	2.0 %
Tesla	62,145	47,953	60,325	29.6 %	29.6 %	3.0 %	-8.4 %
Toyota	170,462	195,271	157,697	-12.7 %	-12.7 %	8.1 %	-3.9 %
Volkswagen Group	54,387	39,262	47,381	38.5 %	38.5 %	14.8 %	2.0 %
Industry	1,356,762	1,264,300	1,160,877	7.3 %	7.3 %	16.9 %	3.9 %

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Mar 2023 Forecast	Mar 2022 Actual	Feb 2023 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	29,496	29,977	25,052	-1.6 %	-1.6 %	17.7 %	4.7 %
Daimler	25,904	27,443	25,169	-5.6 %	-5.6 %	2.9 %	-8.5 %
Ford	119,978	118,539	109,733	1.2 %	1.2 %	9.3 %	-2.8 %
GM	173,276	163,021	153,473	6.3 %	6.3 %	12.9 %	0.4 %
Honda	113,336	104,176	81,868	8.8 %	8.8 %	38.4 %	23.1 %
Hyundai	71,675	63,319	53,035	13.2 %	13.2 %	35.1 %	20.1 %
Kia	66,530	53,572	56,870	24.2 %	24.2 %	17.0 %	4.0 %
Nissan	70,193	64,109	60,090	9.5 %	9.5 %	16.8 %	3.8 %
Stellantis	93,641	113,098	85,170	-17.2 %	-17.2 %	9.9 %	-2.3 %
Subaru	51,000	41,963	43,436	21.5 %	21.5 %	17.4 %	4.4 %
Tesla	55,160	47,447	52,555	16.3 %	16.3 %	5.0 %	-6.7 %
Toyota	152,631	174,182	145,354	-12.4 %	-12.4 %	5.0 %	-6.7 %
Volkswagen Group	47,449	38,135	44,078	24.4 %	24.4 %	7.6 %	-4.3 %
Industry	1,131,166	1,094,894	983,735	3.3 %	3.3 %	15.0 %	2.2 %

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Mar 2023 Forecast	Mar 2022 Actual	Feb 2023 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	2,959	584	1,756	406.3 %	406.3 %	68.5 %	49.8 %
Daimler	2,841	1,321	1,455	115.1 %	115.1 %	95.3 %	73.6 %
Ford	46,628	39,961	46,644	16.7 %	16.7 %	0.0 %	-11.1 %
GM	52,508	41,808	32,087	25.6 %	25.6 %	63.6 %	45.5 %
Honda	1,167	3,899	1,379	-70.1 %	-70.1 %	-15.4 %	-24.8 %
Hyundai	3,823	664	8,217	475.7 %	475.7 %	-53.5 %	-58.6 %
Kia	3,254	5,952	3,989	-45.3 %	-45.3 %	-18.4 %	-27.5 %
Nissan	28,896	15,556	12,303	85.8 %	85.8 %	134.9 %	108.8 %
Stellantis	42,040	30,278	34,600	38.8 %	38.8 %	21.5 %	8.0 %
Subaru	1,541	1,359	2,354	13.4 %	13.4 %	-34.5 %	-41.8 %
Tesla	6,985	506	7,770	1279.4 %	1279.4 %	-10.1 %	-20.1 %
Toyota	17,831	21,089	12,343	-15.4 %	-15.4 %	44.5 %	28.4 %
Volkswagen Group	6,938	1,127	3,303	515.9 %	515.9 %	110.1 %	86.7 %
Industry	221,630	169,208	173,600	31.0 %	31.0 %	27.7 %	13.5 %

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Mar 2023 Forecast	Mar 2022 Actual	Feb 2023 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	9.1 %	1.9 %	6.6 %	376.7 %	39.2 %
Daimler	9.9 %	4.6 %	5.5 %	115.3 %	80.9 %
Ford	28.0 %	25.2 %	29.8 %	11.0 %	-6.2 %
GM	23.3 %	20.4 %	17.3 %	13.9 %	34.5 %
Honda	1.0 %	3.6 %	1.7 %	-71.7 %	-38.5 %
Hyundai	5.1 %	1.0 %	13.4 %	387.9 %	-62.3 %
Kia	4.7 %	10.0 %	6.6 %	-53.4 %	-28.9 %
Nissan	29.2 %	19.5 %	17.0 %	49.3 %	71.6 %
Stellantis	31.0 %	21.1 %	28.9 %	46.7 %	7.3 %
Subaru	2.9 %	3.1 %	5.1 %	-6.5 %	-43.0 %
Tesla	11.2 %	1.1 %	12.9 %	964.4 %	-12.7 %
Toyota	10.5 %	10.8 %	7.8 %	-3.1 %	33.6 %
Volkswagen Group	12.8 %	2.9 %	7.0 %	344.6 %	83.0 %
Industry	16.3 %	13.4 %	15.0 %	22.1 %	9.2 %

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Mar 2023 Forecast	Mar 2022 Actual	Feb 2023 Actual
BMW	2.4 %	2.4 %	2.3 %
Daimler	2.1 %	2.3 %	2.3 %
Ford	12.3 %	12.5 %	13.5 %
GM	16.6 %	16.2 %	16.0 %
Honda	8.4 %	8.5 %	7.2 %
Hyundai	5.6 %	5.1 %	5.3 %
Kia	5.1 %	4.7 %	5.2 %
Nissan	7.3 %	6.3 %	6.2 %
Stellantis	10.0 %	11.3 %	10.3 %
Subaru	3.9 %	3.4 %	3.9 %
Tesla	4.6 %	3.8 %	5.2 %
Toyota	12.6 %	15.4 %	13.6 %
Volkswagen Group	4.0 %	3.1 %	4.1 %
	94.9 %	95.2 %	95.1 %

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Mar 2023 Forecast	Mar 2022 Actual	Feb 2023 Actual
BMW	2.6 %	2.7 %	2.5 %
Daimler	2.3 %	2.5 %	2.6 %
Ford	10.6 %	10.8 %	11.2 %
GM	15.3 %	14.9 %	15.6 %
Honda	10.0 %	9.5 %	8.3 %
Hyundai	6.3 %	5.8 %	5.4 %
Kia	5.9 %	4.9 %	5.8 %
Nissan	6.2 %	5.9 %	6.1 %
Stellantis	8.3 %	10.3 %	8.7 %
Subaru	4.5 %	3.8 %	4.4 %
Tesla	4.9 %	4.3 %	5.3 %
Toyota	13.5 %	15.9 %	14.8 %
Volkswagen Group	4.2 %	3.5 %	4.5 %
	94.6 %	94.9 %	95.1 %

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Mar 2023 Forecast	Mar 2022 Actual	Feb 2023 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$68,392	$65,608	$69,659	4.2 %	-1.8 %
Daimler	$79,502	$71,290	$78,472	11.5 %	1.3 %
Ford	$52,995	$46,933	$54,193	12.9 %	-2.2 %
GM	$52,620	$49,901	$50,845	5.4 %	3.5 %
Honda	$38,506	$37,830	$38,008	1.8 %	1.3 %
Hyundai	$36,541	$36,402	$37,351	0.4 %	-2.2 %
Kia	$34,108	$34,573	$34,035	-1.3 %	0.2 %
Nissan	$37,718	$34,511	$38,202	9.3 %	-1.3 %
Stellantis	$55,112	$52,890	$54,994	4.2 %	0.2 %
Subaru	$34,839	$34,365	$34,373	1.4 %	1.4 %
Toyota	$42,515	$40,866	$42,288	4.0 %	0.5 %
Volkswagen Group	$49,607	$47,080	$48,550	5.4 %	2.2 %
Industry	$45,397	$42,978	$45,400	5.6 %	0.0 %
	$2,419		-$3

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Mar 2023 Forecast	Mar 2022 Actual	Feb 2023 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$2,861	$1,823	$2,758	57.0 %	3.7 %
Daimler	$2,289	$1,760	$2,202	30.1 %	4.0 %
Ford	$1,198	$1,595	$1,085	-24.9 %	10.4 %
GM	$2,083	$1,927	$2,000	8.1 %	4.1 %
Honda	$1,349	$1,098	$1,285	22.9 %	5.0 %
Hyundai	$1,019	$645	$950	58.1 %	7.3 %
Kia	$568	$890	$559	-36.1 %	1.7 %
Nissan	$2,311	$1,772	$2,174	30.4 %	6.3 %
Stellantis	$2,581	$2,212	$2,456	16.7 %	5.1 %
Subaru	$836	$873	$832	-4.2 %	0.5 %
Toyota	$729	$905	$714	-19.5 %	2.1 %
Volkswagen Group	$2,273	$1,528	$2,307	48.8 %	-1.5 %
Industry	$1,558	$1,472	$1,485	5.8 %	4.9 %
	$86		$72

 

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Mar 2023 Forecast	Mar 2022 Actual	Feb 2023 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	4.2 %	2.8 %	4.0 %	50.6 %	5.7 %
Daimler	2.9 %	2.5 %	2.8 %	16.6 %	2.6 %
Ford	2.3 %	3.4 %	2.0 %	-33.5 %	12.9 %
GM	4.0 %	3.9 %	3.9 %	2.5 %	0.6 %
Honda	3.5 %	2.9 %	3.4 %	20.7 %	3.6 %
Hyundai	2.8 %	1.8 %	2.5 %	57.5 %	9.7 %
Kia	1.7 %	2.6 %	1.6 %	-35.3 %	1.5 %
Nissan	6.1 %	5.1 %	5.7 %	19.3 %	7.7 %
Stellantis	4.7 %	4.2 %	4.5 %	12.0 %	4.8 %
Subaru	2.4 %	2.5 %	2.4 %	-5.5 %	-0.9 %
Toyota	1.7 %	2.2 %	1.7 %	-22.6 %	1.5 %
Volkswagen Group	4.6 %	3.2 %	4.8 %	41.2 %	-3.6 %
Industry	3.4 %	3.4 %	3.3 %	0.2 %	4.9 %

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	Mar 2023 Forecast	Mar 2022 Actual	Feb 2023 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$61,592,598,876	$54,337,043,463	$52,704,052,960	13.4 %	16.9 %

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Q1 2023	Q1 2022	Q4 2022	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	QoQ % Change	QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	84,605	80,590	112,057	5.0 %	5.0 %	-24.5 %	-21.5 %
Daimler	78,929	73,412	87,557	7.5 %	7.5 %	-9.9 %	-6.2 %
Ford	468,053	429,174	479,769	9.1 %	9.1 %	-2.4 %	1.5 %
GM	594,434	509,108	617,575	16.8 %	16.8 %	-3.7 %	0.1 %
Honda	282,264	266,418	255,250	5.9 %	5.9 %	10.6 %	15.0 %
Hyundai	192,656	171,399	211,497	12.4 %	12.4 %	-8.9 %	-5.3 %
Kia	182,626	151,194	175,401	20.8 %	20.8 %	4.1 %	8.3 %
Nissan	231,733	201,081	191,887	15.2 %	15.2 %	20.8 %	25.6 %
Stellantis	365,610	407,550	348,244	-10.3 %	-10.3 %	5.0 %	9.2 %
Subaru	142,704	132,346	155,466	7.8 %	7.8 %	-8.2 %	-4.5 %
Tesla	176,345	130,133	131,574	35.5 %	35.5 %	34.0 %	39.4 %
Toyota	464,918	514,592	537,971	-9.7 %	-9.7 %	-13.6 %	-10.1 %
Volkswagen Group	145,450	114,540	142,039	27.0 %	27.0 %	2.4 %	6.5 %
Industry	3,584,087	3,330,136	3,606,847	7.6 %	7.6 %	-0.6 %	3.3 %

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Q1 2023	Q1 2022	Q4 2022	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	QoQ % Change	QoQ % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	76,891	78,760	103,405	-2.4 %	-2.4 %	-25.6 %	-22.7 %
Daimler	71,128	69,571	82,703	2.2 %	2.2 %	-14.0 %	-10.6 %
Ford	337,059	324,330	338,394	3.9 %	3.9 %	-0.4 %	3.6 %
GM	456,194	402,836	499,104	13.2 %	13.2 %	-8.6 %	-4.9 %
Honda	279,387	258,857	251,092	7.9 %	7.9 %	11.3 %	15.7 %
Hyundai	182,901	169,718	188,202	7.8 %	7.8 %	-2.8 %	1.1 %
Kia	174,110	137,760	163,657	26.4 %	26.4 %	6.4 %	10.6 %
Nissan	164,156	164,170	158,021	0.0 %	0.0 %	3.9 %	8.0 %
Stellantis	252,327	330,551	249,335	-23.7 %	-23.7 %	1.2 %	5.2 %
Subaru	138,519	128,432	148,694	7.9 %	7.9 %	-6.8 %	-3.1 %
Tesla	156,524	125,871	120,829	24.4 %	24.4 %	29.5 %	34.7 %
Toyota	416,286	458,887	486,588	-9.3 %	-9.3 %	-14.4 %	-11.0 %
Volkswagen Group	126,895	111,084	131,712	14.2 %	14.2 %	-3.7 %	0.2 %
Industry	2,994,652	2,896,489	3,063,713	3.4 %	3.4 %	-2.3 %	1.7 %

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Q1 2023	Q1 2022	Q4 2022
BMW	2.4 %	2.4 %	3.1 %
Daimler	2.2 %	2.2 %	2.4 %
Ford	13.1 %	12.9 %	13.3 %
GM	16.6 %	15.3 %	17.1 %
Honda	7.9 %	8.0 %	7.1 %
Hyundai	5.4 %	5.1 %	5.9 %
Kia	5.1 %	4.5 %	4.9 %
Nissan	6.5 %	6.0 %	5.3 %
Stellantis	10.2 %	12.2 %	9.7 %
Subaru	4.0 %	4.0 %	4.3 %
Tesla	4.9 %	3.9 %	3.6 %
Toyota	13.0 %	15.5 %	14.9 %
Volkswagen Group	4.1 %	3.4 %	3.9 %
	95.2 %	95.5 %	95.5 %

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Q1 2023	Q1 2022	Q4 2022
BMW	2.6 %	2.7 %	3.4 %
Daimler	2.4 %	2.4 %	2.7 %
Ford	11.3 %	11.2 %	11.0 %
GM	15.2 %	13.9 %	16.3 %
Honda	9.3 %	8.9 %	8.2 %
Hyundai	6.1 %	5.9 %	6.1 %
Kia	5.8 %	4.8 %	5.3 %
Nissan	5.5 %	5.7 %	5.2 %
Stellantis	8.4 %	11.4 %	8.1 %
Subaru	4.6 %	4.4 %	4.9 %
Tesla	5.2 %	4.3 %	3.9 %
Toyota	13.9 %	15.8 %	15.9 %
Volkswagen Group	4.2 %	3.8 %	4.3 %
	94.6 %	95.3 %	95.4 %

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Q1 2023	Q1 2022	Q4 2022	YoY % Change		QoQ % Change
BMW	$68,851	$63,860	$68,810	7.8 %		0.1 %
Daimler	$78,696	$73,231	$73,603	7.5 %		6.9 %
Ford	$54,065	$47,952	$54,351	12.7 %		-0.5 %
GM	$51,808	$50,664	$52,422	2.3 %		-1.2 %
Honda	$37,919	$36,632	$37,366	3.5 %		1.5 %
Hyundai	$37,054	$36,412	$36,879	1.8 %		0.5 %
Kia	$34,150	$33,925	$34,643	0.7 %		-1.4 %
Nissan	$37,857	$33,724	$37,149	12.3 %		1.9 %
Stellantis	$55,093	$52,798	$55,225	4.3 %		-0.2 %
Subaru	$34,704	$34,677	$35,363	0.1 %		-1.9 %
Toyota	$42,256	$40,172	$40,329	5.2 %		4.8 %
Volkswagen Group	$49,148	$45,346	$48,883	8.4 %		0.5 %
Industry	45,452	43,701	45,397	4.0 %		0.1 %
	$1,750		$55

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Q1 2023	Q1 2022	Q4 2022	YoY % Change		QoQ % Change
BMW	$2,741	$2,358	$1,616	16.3 %		69.6 %
Daimler	$2,127	$2,012	$1,707	5.7 %		24.6 %
Ford	$1,139	$1,824	$1,071	-37.6 %		6.3 %
GM	$2,021	$1,974	$1,382	2.4 %		46.2 %
Honda	$1,325	$1,163	$999	13.9 %		32.6 %
Hyundai	$948	$890	$974	6.6 %		-2.7 %
Kia	$601	$1,260	$476	-52.3 %		26.4 %
Nissan	$2,130	$1,848	$1,457	15.2 %		46.2 %
Stellantis	$2,380	$2,413	$1,669	-1.3 %		42.6 %
Subaru	$859	$901	$547	-4.7 %		56.9 %
Toyota	$710	$1,025	$653	-30.7 %		8.8 %
Volkswagen Group	$2,154	$1,769	$1,514	21.8 %		42.3 %
Industry	1,486	1,631	1,168	-8.9 %		27.2 %
	-$145		$318

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.

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SOURCE TrueCar.com

FAQ

What are TrueCar's expected vehicle sales for March 2023?

TrueCar expects total new vehicle sales to reach 1,356,762 units in March 2023.

How much did fleet sales increase for TrueCar in March 2023?

Fleet sales are projected to increase by 31% compared to March 2022.

What is the forecasted average transaction price for new vehicles from TrueCar?

The average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to rise by 5.6% year-over-year.

What is the expected SAAR for March 2023 according to TrueCar?

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) is estimated to be 14.7 million.

How do retail vehicle sales compare to last year according to TrueCar?

Retail sales are expected to increase by 3% from the previous year.