TrueCar Releases Analysis of July Industry Sales

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) projects total new vehicle industry sales for July 2022 at 1,119,712 units, marking a 10% decline year-over-year and 2% decrease from June 2022. The estimated SAAR is 13 million, down 15% from the previous year. U.S. retail deliveries are anticipated at 975,597 units, down 14% year-over-year. As affordability concerns rise, there is a noted increase in industry incentives for the first time in 20 months. Fleet sales are expected to rise 30% from a year ago, while average transaction prices increase 12%.

Positive

• Fleet sales expected to increase by 30% year-over-year.
• Industry incentives have risen for the first time in nearly 20 months.

Negative

• Total new vehicle sales down 10% year-over-year and 2% month-over-month.
• U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks down 14% year-over-year.
• Total SAAR expected to fall by 15% from the previous year.

A shift in incentives appears to be an industry response to growing affordability concerns

SANTA MONICA, Calif., July 29, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,119,712 units in July 2022, down 10% from a year ago and down 2% from June 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 13 million, down 15% from July 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 975,597 units, down 14% from a year ago and down 1% from June 2022.

"This month we're seeing the first response from the industry to address affordability concerns, by increasing incentives for the first time in nearly 20 months," said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Even before the latest bump in federal interest rates, consumers were facing rising challenges to vehicle affordability. As rates go up, consumers are faced with increased monthly payments, even as average transaction prices remain flat."

And while inventory remains close to historically low levels, there is some emerging distinction between these levels among various OEMs.

"OEMs that have inventory and supply are weathering the drop in sales differently than the ones that don't," said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "There may be long term implications for brands that are low on inventory, as those brands could lose some loyal customers."

Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

• Total sales for July 2022 are expected to be down 10% from a year ago and down 2% from June 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for July 2022 are expected to be up 30% from a year ago and up 7% from June 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 54% from last year but up slightly from June 2022.
• Average transaction price is projected to be up 12% from a year ago and about the same as June 2022.
• Total SAAR is expected to be down 15% from a year ago at 13 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for July 2022 are expected to reach 3 million, down 17% from a year ago and up 4% from June 2022.
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.5% compared to June 2022 at 5.3% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.5%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for July 2022 is about 71 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is also about 71 months, both up about one month since last July.

 

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jul 2022 Forecast	Jul 2021 Actual	Jun 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	29,767	28,845	28,744	3.2 %	7.2 %	3.6 %	3.6 %
Daimler	31,514	24,977	32,494	26.2 %	31.0 %	-3.0 %	-3.0 %
Ford	156,105	118,917	151,182	31.3 %	36.3 %	3.3 %	3.3 %
GM	182,874	197,697	199,679	-7.5 %	-3.9 %	-8.4 %	-8.4 %
Honda	68,090	135,542	71,048	-49.8 %	-47.8 %	-4.2 %	-4.2 %
Hyundai	60,374	73,680	67,597	-18.1 %	-14.9 %	-10.7 %	-10.7 %
Kia	61,188	70,099	65,142	-12.7 %	-9.4 %	-6.1 %	-6.1 %
Nissan	51,648	80,456	55,122	-35.8 %	-33.3 %	-6.3 %	-6.3 %
Stellantis	136,936	142,065	134,456	-3.6 %	0.1 %	1.8 %	1.8 %
Subaru	41,351	50,125	43,175	-17.5 %	-14.3 %	-4.2 %	-4.2 %
Tesla	46,298	26,200	42,757	76.7 %	83.5 %	8.3 %	8.3 %
Toyota	165,758	225,917	167,823	-26.6 %	-23.8 %	-1.2 %	-1.2 %
Volkswagen Group	53,093	55,754	51,034	-4.8 %	-1.1 %	4.0 %	4.0 %
Industry	1,119,712	1,291,775	1,144,772	-13.3 %	-10.0 %	-2.2 %	-2.2 %

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jul 2022 Forecast	Jul 2021 Actual	Jun 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	28,850	27,125	27,855	6.4 %	10.5 %	3.6 %	3.6 %
Daimler	29,608	23,969	30,559	23.5 %	28.3 %	-3.1 %	-3.1 %
Ford	117,280	88,396	113,284	32.7 %	37.8 %	3.5 %	3.5 %
GM	151,946	172,980	158,839	-12.2 %	-8.8 %	-4.3 %	-4.3 %
Honda	65,528	132,472	68,503	-50.5 %	-48.6 %	-4.3 %	-4.3 %
Hyundai	59,775	69,555	66,897	-14.1 %	-10.8 %	-10.6 %	-10.6 %
Kia	56,625	67,700	60,147	-16.4 %	-13.1 %	-5.9 %	-5.9 %
Nissan	41,953	69,278	43,310	-39.4 %	-37.1 %	-3.1 %	-3.1 %
Stellantis	112,485	127,443	110,028	-11.7 %	-8.3 %	2.2 %	2.2 %
Subaru	40,014	49,301	41,734	-18.8 %	-15.7 %	-4.1 %	-4.1 %
Tesla	43,475	26,200	40,150	65.9 %	72.3 %	8.3 %	8.3 %
Toyota	144,205	209,320	147,224	-31.1 %	-28.5 %	-2.1 %	-2.1 %
Volkswagen Group	51,321	53,919	49,193	-4.8 %	-1.2 %	4.3 %	4.3 %
Industry	975,597	1,176,284	989,504	-17.1 %	-13.9 %	-1.4 %	-1.4 %

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jul 2022 Forecast	Jul 2021 Actual	Jun 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	916	1,720	889	-46.7 %	-44.7 %	3.1 %	3.1 %
Daimler	1,905	1,008	1,935	89.1 %	96.4 %	-1.5 %	-1.5 %
Ford	38,825	30,521	37,898	27.2 %	32.1 %	2.4 %	2.4 %
GM	30,929	24,717	40,840	25.1 %	29.9 %	-24.3 %	-24.3 %
Honda	2,561	3,070	2,545	-16.6 %	-13.4 %	0.7 %	0.7 %
Hyundai	599	4,125	700	-85.5 %	-84.9 %	-14.5 %	-14.5 %
Kia	4,563	2,399	4,995	90.2 %	97.5 %	-8.6 %	-8.6 %
Nissan	9,695	11,178	11,812	-13.3 %	-9.9 %	-17.9 %	-17.9 %
Stellantis	24,451	14,622	24,428	67.2 %	73.7 %	0.1 %	0.1 %
Subaru	1,338	824	1,441	62.2 %	68.5 %	-7.2 %	-7.2 %
Tesla	2,823	-	2,607			8.3 %	8.3 %
Toyota	21,554	16,597	20,599	29.9 %	34.9 %	4.6 %	4.6 %
Volkswagen Group	1,773	1,835	1,841	-3.4 %	0.3 %	-3.7 %	-3.7 %
Industry	144,114	115,491	155,268	24.8 %	29.6 %	-7.2 %	-7.2 %

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Jul 2022 Forecast	Jul 2021 Actual	Jun 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	3.1 %	6.0 %	3.1 %	-48.4 %	-0.5 %
Daimler	6.0 %	4.0 %	6.0 %	49.9 %	1.5 %
Ford	24.9 %	25.7 %	25.1 %	-3.1 %	-0.8 %
GM	16.9 %	12.5 %	20.5 %	35.3 %	-17.3 %
Honda	3.8 %	2.3 %	3.6 %	66.1 %	5.0 %
Hyundai	1.0 %	5.6 %	1.0 %	-82.3 %	-4.3 %
Kia	7.5 %	3.4 %	7.7 %	117.9 %	-2.7 %
Nissan	18.8 %	13.9 %	21.4 %	35.1 %	-12.4 %
Stellantis	17.9 %	10.3 %	18.2 %	73.5 %	-1.7 %
Subaru	3.2 %	1.6 %	3.3 %	96.7 %	-3.1 %
Tesla	6.1 %	0.0 %	6.1 %		0.0 %
Toyota	13.0 %	7.3 %	12.3 %	77.0 %	5.9 %
Volkswagen Group	3.3 %	3.3 %	3.6 %	1.4 %	-7.5 %
Industry	12.9 %	8.9 %	13.6 %	44.0 %	-5.1 %

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Jul 2022 Forecast	Jul 2021 Actual	Jun 2022 Actual
BMW	2.7 %	2.2 %	2.5 %
Daimler	2.8 %	1.9 %	2.8 %
Ford	13.9 %	9.2 %	13.2 %
GM	16.3 %	15.3 %	17.4 %
Honda	6.1 %	10.5 %	6.2 %
Hyundai	5.4 %	5.7 %	5.9 %
Kia	5.5 %	5.4 %	5.7 %
Nissan	4.6 %	6.2 %	4.8 %
Stellantis	12.2 %	11.0 %	11.7 %
Subaru	3.7 %	3.9 %	3.8 %
Tesla	4.1 %	2.0 %	3.7 %
Toyota	14.8 %	17.5 %	14.7 %
Volkswagen Group	4.7 %	4.3 %	4.5 %
	96.9 %	95.2 %	97.0 %

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Jul 2022 Forecast	Jul 2021 Actual	Jun 2022 Actual
BMW	3.0 %	2.3 %	2.8 %
Daimler	3.0 %	2.0 %	3.1 %
Ford	12.0 %	7.5 %	11.4 %
GM	15.6 %	14.7 %	16.1 %
Honda	6.7 %	11.3 %	6.9 %
Hyundai	6.1 %	5.9 %	6.8 %
Kia	5.8 %	5.8 %	6.1 %
Nissan	4.3 %	5.9 %	4.4 %
Stellantis	11.5 %	10.8 %	11.1 %
Subaru	4.1 %	4.2 %	4.2 %
Tesla	4.5 %	2.2 %	4.1 %
Toyota	14.8 %	17.8 %	14.9 %
Volkswagen Group	5.3 %	4.6 %	5.0 %
	96.7 %	95.0 %	96.8 %

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Jul 2022 Forecast	Jul 2021 Actual	Jun 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$63,548	$57,699	$64,685	10.1 %	-1.8 %
Daimler	$65,614	$64,427	$64,236	1.8 %	2.1 %
Ford	$53,865	$50,566	$52,475	6.5 %	2.6 %
GM	$51,079	$47,939	$50,519	6.6 %	1.1 %
Honda	$38,302	$32,972	$37,764	16.2 %	1.4 %
Hyundai	$36,510	$33,369	$37,640	9.4 %	-3.0 %
Kia	$35,231	$30,496	$35,697	15.5 %	-1.3 %
Nissan	$35,666	$32,828	$35,970	8.6 %	-0.8 %
Stellantis	$54,402	$49,189	$54,066	10.6 %	0.6 %
Subaru	$34,897	$33,767	$35,611	3.3 %	-2.0 %
Toyota	$40,970	$37,682	$40,765	8.7 %	0.5 %
Volkswagen Group	$44,701	$42,447	$45,706	5.3 %	-2.2 %
Industry	$45,352	$40,489	$45,364	12.0 %	0.0 %
	$4,863		-$12

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Jul 2022 Forecast	Jul 2021 Actual	Jun 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$1,193	$4,278	$1,130	-72.1 %	5.6 %
Daimler	$1,398	$3,625	$1,283	-61.4 %	9.0 %
Ford	$1,003	$2,417	$1,046	-58.5 %	-4.1 %
GM	$1,772	$3,345	$1,609	-47.0 %	10.1 %
Honda	$765	$2,064	$696	-62.9 %	9.9 %
Hyundai	$452	$1,664	$486	-72.8 %	-6.9 %
Kia	$541	$2,472	$582	-78.1 %	-7.0 %
Nissan	$1,118	$2,365	$1,177	-52.7 %	-5.0 %
Stellantis	$1,909	$2,963	$1,895	-35.6 %	0.8 %
Subaru	$701	$1,336	$763	-47.5 %	-8.1 %
Toyota	$759	$2,005	$753	-62.2 %	0.8 %
Volkswagen Group	$1,214	$2,902	$1,162	-58.2 %	4.5 %
Industry	$1,162	$2,536	$1,110	-54.2 %	4.7 %
	-$1,374		$52

 

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Jul 2022 Forecast	Jul 2021 Actual	Jun 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	1.9 %	7.4 %	1.7 %	-74.7 %	7.5 %
Daimler	2.1 %	5.6 %	2.0 %	-62.1 %	6.7 %
Ford	1.9 %	4.8 %	2.0 %	-61.0 %	-6.6 %
GM	3.5 %	7.0 %	3.2 %	-50.3 %	8.9 %
Honda	2.0 %	6.3 %	1.8 %	-68.1 %	8.4 %
Hyundai	1.2 %	5.0 %	1.3 %	-75.2 %	-4.0 %
Kia	1.5 %	8.1 %	1.6 %	-81.1 %	-5.8 %
Nissan	3.1 %	7.2 %	3.3 %	-56.5 %	-4.2 %
Stellantis	3.5 %	6.0 %	3.5 %	-41.7 %	0.1 %
Subaru	2.0 %	4.0 %	2.1 %	-49.2 %	-6.2 %
Toyota	1.9 %	5.3 %	1.8 %	-65.2 %	0.3 %
Volkswagen Group	2.7 %	6.8 %	2.5 %	-60.3 %	6.8 %
Industry	2.6 %	6.3 %	2.4 %	-59.1 %	4.7 %

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	Jul 2022 Forecast	Jul 2021 Actual	Jun 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$50,780,980,394	$52,302,194,540	$51,931,220,369	-2.9 %	-2.2 %

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter. 

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SOURCE TrueCar.com

FAQ

What are the projected new vehicle sales for July 2022 for TrueCar?

TrueCar projects total new vehicle sales at 1,119,712 units for July 2022.

How much have new vehicle sales declined compared to last year?

New vehicle sales are down 10% year-over-year.

What is the expected SAAR for July 2022?

The estimated SAAR for total light vehicle industry sales is 13 million.

How are retail deliveries expected to perform in July 2022?

U.S. retail deliveries are expected to be 975,597 units, down 14% year-over-year.

What trend is observed in industry incentives for July 2022?

There is an increase in industry incentives for the first time in nearly 20 months.