TrueCar Releases Analysis of January Industry Sales

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) forecasts total new vehicle sales of 1,067,763 units for January 2023, reflecting a 6.5% year-over-year increase but a 6.6% decline from December 2022. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for sales is expected at 16 million, up 7% from January 2022. Retail deliveries, excluding fleet sales, are projected at 895,491 units, down 1% year-over-year. Rising vehicle prices persist, though inventory increases have moderated mark-ups on high-demand models. Fleet sales are anticipated to surge 74% year-over-year, indicative of strong demand despite overall sales fluctuations.

Positive

• Fleet sales expected to rise 74% YoY
• Total new vehicle sales up 6.5% YoY
• SAAR estimated at 16 million units, up 7% YoY

Negative

• Retail deliveries of new vehicles down 1% YoY
• Average transaction price for new vehicles down 2% MoM
• Used vehicle sales expected to drop 21% YoY

2023 industry outlook appears promising as inventory rebounds

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Jan. 27, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,067,763 units in January 2023, up 6.5% from a year ago and down 6.6% from December 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 16 million, up 7% from January 2022. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 895,491 units, down 1% from a year ago and down almost 10% from December 2022.

"Consumers continue to face rising new-vehicle prices across the industry," said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "However, the pace has slowed as inventory for many high-demand vehicles grows. Fewer vehicles are seeing mark-ups (% of sales over MSRP), particularly for import brands which faced pronounced scarcity during the peak of the shortages."

"Tesla's drastic price reductions in January had a similar effect on their sales as traditional OEM incentives. We'll see if the demand increase will last as other OEMs react," said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Additional January Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

• Total sales for January 2023 are expected to be up 6.5% from a year ago and down 6.6% from December 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for January 2023 are expected to be up 74% from a year ago and up 13% from December 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to be up 3% from a year ago and down 2% from December 2022.
• Total SAAR is expected to be up 7% from a year ago at about 16 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for January 2023 are expected to reach almost 2.5 million, down 21% from a year ago and even with December 2022.
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 6.9% compared to December 2022 at 6.7% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 10%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for January 2023 is 69 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 70 months.
• Full year 2023 sales are expected at 15 million units.

 

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jan 2023 Forecast	Jan 2022 Actual	Dec 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	32,404	24,024	42,797	34.9 %	34.9 %	-24.3 %	-14.8 %
Daimler	24,561	20,400	31,355	20.4 %	20.4 %	-21.7 %	-11.9 %
Ford	142,485	142,445	177,868	0.0 %	0.0 %	-19.9 %	-9.9 %
GM	184,177	142,574	220,166	29.2 %	29.2 %	-16.3 %	-5.9 %
Honda	87,755	73,949	93,843	18.7 %	18.7 %	-6.5 %	5.2 %
Hyundai	60,167	51,510	78,230	16.8 %	16.8 %	-23.1 %	-13.5 %
Kia	46,323	42,488	60,422	9.0 %	9.0 %	-23.3 %	-13.8 %
Nissan	58,273	59,742	65,103	-2.5 %	-2.5 %	-10.5 %	0.7 %
Stellantis	105,010	125,265	125,037	-16.2 %	-16.2 %	-16.0 %	-5.5 %
Subaru	45,874	44,158	56,760	3.9 %	3.9 %	-19.2 %	-9.1 %
Tesla	55,142	40,165	44,923	37.3 %	37.3 %	22.7 %	38.1 %
Toyota	140,523	158,676	180,906	-11.4 %	-11.4 %	-22.3 %	-12.6 %
Volkswagen Group	39,212	37,971	50,115	3.3 %	3.3 %	-21.8 %	-12.0 %
Industry	1,067,763	1,002,304	1,286,598	6.5 %	6.5 %	-17.0 %	-6.6 %

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jan 2023 Forecast	Jan 2022 Actual	Dec 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	29,948	22,609	39,271	32.5 %	32.5 %	-23.7 %	-14.2 %
Daimler	22,207	18,610	29,147	19.3 %	19.3 %	-23.8 %	-14.3 %
Ford	107,196	110,545	132,667	-3.0 %	-3.0 %	-19.2 %	-9.1 %
GM	139,694	128,124	181,815	9.0 %	9.0 %	-23.2 %	-13.6 %
Honda	86,150	73,567	91,217	17.1 %	17.1 %	-5.6 %	6.3 %
Hyundai	56,583	50,844	77,320	11.3 %	11.3 %	-26.8 %	-17.7 %
Kia	43,149	39,882	58,389	8.2 %	8.2 %	-26.1 %	-16.9 %
Nissan	48,877	53,153	53,314	-8.0 %	-8.0 %	-8.3 %	3.1 %
Stellantis	69,560	101,987	100,020	-31.8 %	-31.8 %	-30.5 %	-21.8 %
Subaru	44,529	43,267	55,293	2.9 %	2.9 %	-19.5 %	-9.4 %
Tesla	49,732	39,782	37,632	25.0 %	25.0 %	32.2 %	48.7 %
Toyota	125,692	148,495	161,875	-15.4 %	-15.4 %	-22.4 %	-12.6 %
Volkswagen Group	33,883	37,350	45,931	-9.3 %	-9.3 %	-26.2 %	-17.0 %
Industry	895,491	905,130	1,115,659	-1.1 %	-1.1 %	-19.7 %	-9.7 %

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Jan 2023 Forecast	Jan 2022 Actual	Dec 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	2,456	1,415	3,526	73.5 %	73.5 %	-30.4 %	-21.6 %
Daimler	2,354	1,790	2,208	31.5 %	31.5 %	6.6 %	19.9 %
Ford	35,289	31,900	45,201	10.6 %	10.6 %	-21.9 %	-12.2 %
GM	44,483	14,450	38,351	207.8 %	207.8 %	16.0 %	30.5 %
Honda	1,605	382	2,626	320.5 %	320.5 %	-38.9 %	-31.2 %
Hyundai	3,584	666	910	438.2 %	438.2 %	293.8 %	343.0 %
Kia	3,174	2,606	2,033	21.8 %	21.8 %	56.1 %	75.6 %
Nissan	9,396	6,589	11,789	42.6 %	42.6 %	-20.3 %	-10.3 %
Stellantis	35,450	23,278	25,017	52.3 %	52.3 %	41.7 %	59.4 %
Subaru	1,345	891	1,467	50.9 %	50.9 %	-8.3 %	3.1 %
Tesla	5,410	383	7,291	1312.4 %	1312.4 %	-25.8 %	-16.5 %
Toyota	14,831	10,181	19,031	45.7 %	45.7 %	-22.1 %	-12.3 %
Volkswagen Group	5,329	621	4,184	757.7 %	757.7 %	27.4 %	43.3 %
Industry	168,306	96,976	167,397	73.6 %	73.6 %	0.5 %	13.1 %

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Jan 2023 Forecast	Jan 2022 Actual	Dec 2022 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	7.6 %	5.9 %	8.2 %	28.6 %	-8.0 %
Daimler	9.6 %	8.8 %	7.0 %	9.3 %	36.1 %
Ford	24.8 %	22.4 %	25.4 %	10.6 %	-2.5 %
GM	24.2 %	10.1 %	17.4 %	138.3 %	38.7 %
Honda	1.8 %	0.5 %	2.8 %	254.3 %	-34.6 %
Hyundai	6.0 %	1.3 %	1.2 %	360.7 %	412.0 %
Kia	6.9 %	6.1 %	3.4 %	11.7 %	103.6 %
Nissan	16.1 %	11.0 %	18.1 %	46.2 %	-11.0 %
Stellantis	33.8 %	18.6 %	20.0 %	81.7 %	68.7 %
Subaru	2.9 %	2.0 %	2.6 %	45.3 %	13.4 %
Tesla	9.8 %	1.0 %	16.2 %	928.8 %	-39.6 %
Toyota	10.6 %	6.4 %	10.5 %	64.5 %	0.3 %
Volkswagen Group	13.6 %	1.6 %	8.3 %	730.6 %	62.8 %
Industry	15.8 %	9.7 %	13.0 %	62.9 %	21.1 %

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Jan 2023 Forecast	Jan 2022 Actual	Dec 2022 Actual
BMW	3.0 %	2.4 %	3.3 %
Daimler	2.3 %	2.0 %	2.4 %
Ford	13.3 %	14.2 %	13.8 %
GM	17.2 %	14.2 %	17.1 %
Honda	8.2 %	7.4 %	7.3 %
Hyundai	5.6 %	5.1 %	6.1 %
Kia	4.3 %	4.2 %	4.7 %
Nissan	5.5 %	6.0 %	5.1 %
Stellantis	9.8 %	12.5 %	9.7 %
Subaru	4.3 %	4.4 %	4.4 %
Tesla	5.2 %	4.0 %	3.5 %
Toyota	13.2 %	15.8 %	14.1 %
Volkswagen Group	3.7 %	3.8 %	3.9 %
	95.7 %	96.1 %	95.4 %

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Jan 2023 Forecast	Jan 2022 Actual	Dec 2022 Actual
BMW	3.3 %	2.5 %	3.5 %
Daimler	2.5 %	2.1 %	2.6 %
Ford	12.0 %	12.2 %	11.9 %
GM	15.6 %	14.2 %	16.3 %
Honda	9.6 %	8.1 %	8.2 %
Hyundai	6.3 %	5.6 %	6.9 %
Kia	4.8 %	4.4 %	5.2 %
Nissan	5.5 %	5.9 %	4.8 %
Stellantis	7.8 %	11.3 %	9.0 %
Subaru	5.0 %	4.8 %	5.0 %
Tesla	5.6 %	4.4 %	3.4 %
Toyota	14.0 %	16.4 %	14.5 %
Volkswagen Group	3.8 %	4.1 %	4.1 %
	95.7 %	95.9 %	95.4 %

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Jan 2023 Forecast	Jan 2022 Actual	Dec 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$68,949	$62,949	$67,993	9.5 %	1.4 %
Daimler	$77,902	$75,602	$74,992	3.0 %	3.9 %
Ford	$54,810	$49,599	$55,873	10.5 %	-1.9 %
GM	$51,388	$51,741	$52,565	-0.7 %	-2.2 %
Honda	$36,742	$35,683	$37,141	3.0 %	-1.1 %
Hyundai	$37,610	$36,834	$37,063	2.1 %	1.5 %
Kia	$34,728	$34,391	$35,256	1.0 %	-1.5 %
Nissan	$37,206	$34,389	$37,211	8.2 %	0.0 %
Stellantis	$55,136	$52,755	$55,989	4.5 %	-1.5 %
Subaru	$35,072	$35,003	$35,655	0.2 %	-1.6 %
Toyota	$40,480	$39,463	$40,175	2.6 %	0.8 %
Volkswagen Group	$50,345	$49,508	$51,358	1.7 %	-2.0 %
Industry	$45,184	$43,790	$46,031	3.2 %	-1.8 %
	$1,394		-$847

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Jan 2023 Forecast	Jan 2022 Actual	Dec 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$1,910	$2,795	$2,030	-31.7 %	-5.9 %
Daimler	$2,345	$2,083	$2,239	12.6 %	4.7 %
Ford	$1,155	$2,191	$1,095	-47.3 %	5.5 %
GM	$1,457	$2,046	$1,384	-28.8 %	5.3 %
Honda	$969	$1,249	$973	-22.5 %	-0.5 %
Hyundai	$885	$1,136	$1,062	-22.1 %	-16.7 %
Kia	$495	$1,753	$522	-71.8 %	-5.2 %
Nissan	$1,448	$2,010	$1,434	-28.0 %	0.9 %
Stellantis	$2,091	$2,498	$1,996	-16.3 %	4.8 %
Subaru	$469	$986	$465	-52.4 %	0.9 %
Toyota	$609	$1,141	$610	-46.7 %	-0.2 %
Volkswagen Group	$1,594	$1,963	$1,541	-18.8 %	3.4 %
Industry	$1,441	$1,804	$1,333	-20.1 %	8.1 %
	-$362		$108

 

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Jan 2023 Forecast	Jan 2022 Actual	Dec 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	2.8 %	4.4 %	3.0 %	-37.6 %	-7.2 %
Daimler	3.0 %	2.8 %	3.0 %	9.2 %	0.8 %
Ford	2.1 %	4.4 %	2.0 %	-52.3 %	7.6 %
GM	2.8 %	4.0 %	2.6 %	-28.3 %	7.7 %
Honda	2.6 %	3.5 %	2.6 %	-24.7 %	0.6 %
Hyundai	2.4 %	3.1 %	2.9 %	-23.7 %	-17.9 %
Kia	1.4 %	5.1 %	1.5 %	-72.1 %	-3.8 %
Nissan	3.9 %	5.8 %	3.9 %	-33.4 %	1.0 %
Stellantis	3.8 %	4.7 %	3.6 %	-19.9 %	6.4 %
Subaru	1.3 %	2.8 %	1.3 %	-52.5 %	2.6 %
Toyota	1.5 %	2.9 %	1.5 %	-48.0 %	-1.0 %
Volkswagen Group	3.2 %	4.0 %	3.0 %	-20.2 %	5.5 %
Industry	3.2 %	4.1 %	2.9 %	-22.6 %	10.1 %

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	Jan 2023 Forecast	Jan 2022 Actual	Dec 2022 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$48,245,810,311	$43,890,800,180	$59,223,502,944	9.9 %	-18.5 %

 

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.) 

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter. 

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SOURCE TrueCar.com

FAQ

What is TrueCar's forecast for new vehicle sales in January 2023?

TrueCar forecasts new vehicle sales of 1,067,763 units for January 2023.

How much are fleet sales projected to increase in January 2023?

Fleet sales are projected to increase by 74% year-over-year in January 2023.

What is the expected SAAR for light vehicle industry sales in January 2023?

The SAAR for light vehicle industry sales is expected to be around 16 million units.

How have retail deliveries of new cars changed year-over-year?

Retail deliveries of new cars are projected to be 895,491 units, down 1% from last year.

What is the trend in average transaction prices for new vehicles?

The average transaction price for new vehicles is expected to be down 2% from December 2022.