TrueCar Releases Analysis of February Industry Sales

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar forecasts total new vehicle sales of 1,117,400 units for February 2023, marking a 5.6% year-over-year increase and a 4.8% rise from January.

U.S. retail vehicle deliveries are expected at 928,386 units, up 1% from last year. Fleet sales are projected to surge by 33%, while average transaction prices for new vehicles are anticipated to rise by 5%. Despite the increases, the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is estimated at 14.5 million, a 3.8% decline from February 2022. Increased leasing of electric vehicles is attributed to new tax credits, countering high interest rates and prices.

Positive

• Total new vehicle sales projected at 1,117,400 units, up 5.6% year-over-year.
• U.S. retail deliveries expected at 928,386 units, marking a 1% increase.
• Fleet sales anticipated to rise by 33%, enhancing revenue potential.
• Average transaction prices projected to increase by 5%.

Negative

• SAAR for total light vehicle sales expected to decline by 3.8% to 14.5 million.
• Used vehicle sales projected to drop by 8% year-over-year.
• Average new vehicle interest rates remain high at 6.9%.

Electric vehicle leases spike in response to government tax credits

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Feb. 24, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,117,400 units in February 2023, up 5.6% from a year ago and up 4.8% from January 2023, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14.5 million, down 3.8% from February 2022. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 928,386 units, up 1% from a year ago and up almost 3% from January 2023.

"Consumers and manufacturers alike are employing strategies to address affordability challenges," said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Fleet sales are boosting volume and manufacturers are intensifying their incentive spend to offset ballooning interest rates and lingering higher prices. Many consumers are considering a used alternative or front-loading their purchase with higher down payments to reduce outstanding interest."

"Over the last month we've seen OEMs respond to Tesla's steep price reductions by increasing traditional incentives, keeping in line with how OEMs typically act to promote vehicles and increase demand," said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "We're also seeing an abrupt surge in electric vehicle leases for vehicles and consumers that had previously been excluded from tax credit eligibility."

Additional February Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

• Total sales for February 2023 are expected to be up 5.6% from a year ago and up 4.8% from January 2023 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for February 2023 are expected to be up 33% from a year ago and up 16% from January 2023 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to be up 5% from a year ago and about even with January 2023.
• Total SAAR is expected to be down 3.8% from a year ago at about 14.5 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for February 2023 are expected to reach 2.8 million, down 8% from a year ago and up 5% from January 2023. 
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 6.9% compared to January 2023 at 7% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 10.5%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for February 2023 is 69 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is about 70 months.

 

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Feb 2023 Forecast	Feb 2022 Actual	Jan 2023 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	24,611	26,074	25,571	-5.6 %	-5.6 %	-3.8 %	-3.8 %
Daimler	21,874	19,237	23,560	13.7 %	13.7 %	-7.2 %	-7.2 %
Ford	162,296	128,229	145,070	26.6 %	26.6 %	11.9 %	11.9 %
GM	184,632	161,705	183,090	14.2 %	14.2 %	0.8 %	0.8 %
Honda	87,526	84,394	84,514	3.7 %	3.7 %	3.6 %	3.6 %
Hyundai	59,997	55,906	55,906	7.3 %	7.3 %	7.3 %	7.3 %
Kia	56,142	49,182	51,983	14.2 %	14.2 %	8.0 %	8.0 %
Nissan	63,622	61,674	60,251	3.2 %	3.2 %	5.6 %	5.6 %
Stellantis	111,261	136,580	108,538	-18.5 %	-18.5 %	2.5 %	2.5 %
Subaru	44,877	44,866	44,373	0.0 %	0.0 %	1.1 %	1.1 %
Tesla	51,478	42,742	53,875	20.4 %	20.4 %	-4.4 %	-4.4 %
Toyota	154,961	160,645	136,759	-3.5 %	-3.5 %	13.3 %	13.3 %
Volkswagen Group	44,912	36,355	44,086	23.5 %	23.5 %	1.9 %	1.9 %
Industry	1,117,400	1,058,243	1,065,720	5.6 %	5.6 %	4.8 %	4.8 %

 

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Feb 2023 Forecast	Feb 2022 Actual	Jan 2023 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	22,155	25,575	23,917	-13.4 %	-13.4 %	-7.4 %	-7.4 %
Daimler	19,520	18,355	22,304	6.3 %	6.3 %	-12.5 %	-12.5 %
Ford	116,666	95,896	102,232	21.7 %	21.7 %	14.1 %	14.1 %
GM	139,763	129,069	151,662	8.3 %	8.3 %	-7.8 %	-7.8 %
Honda	85,921	81,318	83,130	5.7 %	5.7 %	3.4 %	3.4 %
Hyundai	56,284	55,344	48,421	1.7 %	1.7 %	16.2 %	16.2 %
Kia	52,968	44,264	48,580	19.7 %	19.7 %	9.0 %	9.0 %
Nissan	54,975	49,519	50,111	11.0 %	11.0 %	9.7 %	9.7 %
Stellantis	73,159	108,737	76,215	-32.7 %	-32.7 %	-4.0 %	-4.0 %
Subaru	43,419	43,459	42,123	-0.1 %	-0.1 %	3.1 %	3.1 %
Tesla	45,066	42,291	46,960	6.6 %	6.6 %	-4.0 %	-4.0 %
Toyota	137,684	143,332	126,423	-3.9 %	-3.9 %	8.9 %	8.9 %
Volkswagen Group	39,257	35,270	40,939	11.3 %	11.3 %	-4.1 %	-4.1 %
Industry	928,386	918,918	903,204	1.0 %	1.0 %	2.8 %	2.8 %

 

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Feb 2023 Forecast	Feb 2022 Actual	Jan 2023 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	2,456	499	1,654	391.9 %	391.9 %	48.5 %	48.5 %
Daimler	2,354	882	1,256	167.0 %	167.0 %	87.5 %	87.5 %
Ford	45,630	32,333	42,838	41.1 %	41.1 %	6.5 %	6.5 %
GM	44,869	32,636	31,428	37.5 %	37.5 %	42.8 %	42.8 %
Honda	1,605	3,076	1,384	-47.8 %	-47.8 %	15.9 %	15.9 %
Hyundai	3,713	562	7,485	561.2 %	561.2 %	-50.4 %	-50.4 %
Kia	3,174	4,918	3,403	-35.5 %	-35.5 %	-6.7 %	-6.7 %
Nissan	8,647	12,155	10,140	-28.9 %	-28.9 %	-14.7 %	-14.7 %
Stellantis	38,102	27,843	32,323	36.8 %	36.8 %	17.9 %	17.9 %
Subaru	1,458	1,407	2,250	3.6 %	3.6 %	-35.2 %	-35.2 %
Tesla	6,412	451	6,915	1320.6 %	1320.6 %	-7.3 %	-7.3 %
Toyota	17,277	17,313	10,336	-0.2 %	-0.2 %	67.1 %	67.1 %
Volkswagen Group	5,655	1,085	3,147	421.4 %	421.4 %	79.7 %	79.7 %
Industry	185,048	139,127	158,974	33.0 %	33.0 %	16.4 %	16.4 %

 

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Feb 2023 Forecast	Feb 2022 Actual	Jan 2023 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	10.0 %	1.9 %	6.5 %	421.1 %	54.3 %
Daimler	10.8 %	4.6 %	5.3 %	134.8 %	101.9 %
Ford	28.1 %	25.2 %	29.5 %	11.5 %	-4.8 %
GM	24.3 %	20.2 %	17.2 %	20.4 %	41.6 %
Honda	1.8 %	3.6 %	1.6 %	-49.7 %	12.0 %
Hyundai	6.2 %	1.0 %	13.4 %	516.1 %	-53.8 %
Kia	5.7 %	10.0 %	6.5 %	-43.5 %	-13.6 %
Nissan	13.6 %	19.7 %	16.8 %	-31.0 %	-19.2 %
Stellantis	34.2 %	20.4 %	29.8 %	68.0 %	15.0 %
Subaru	3.2 %	3.1 %	5.1 %	3.6 %	-35.9 %
Tesla	12.5 %	1.1 %	12.8 %	1079.5 %	-3.0 %
Toyota	11.1 %	10.8 %	7.6 %	3.5 %	47.5 %
Volkswagen Group	12.6 %	3.0 %	7.1 %	322.0 %	76.4 %
Industry	16.6 %	13.1 %	14.9 %	26.0 %	11.0 %

 

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Feb 2023 Forecast	Feb 2022 Actual	Jan 2023 Actual
BMW	2.2 %	2.5 %	2.4 %
Daimler	2.0 %	1.8 %	2.2 %
Ford	14.5 %	12.1 %	13.6 %
GM	16.5 %	15.3 %	17.2 %
Honda	7.8 %	8.0 %	7.9 %
Hyundai	5.4 %	5.3 %	5.2 %
Kia	5.0 %	4.6 %	4.9 %
Nissan	5.7 %	5.8 %	5.7 %
Stellantis	10.0 %	12.9 %	10.2 %
Subaru	4.0 %	4.2 %	4.2 %
Tesla	4.6 %	4.0 %	5.1 %
Toyota	13.9 %	15.2 %	12.8 %
Volkswagen Group	4.0 %	3.4 %	4.1 %
	95.6 %	95.2 %	95.5 %

 

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Feb 2023 Forecast	Feb 2022 Actual	Jan 2023 Actual
BMW	2.4 %	2.8 %	2.6 %
Daimler	2.1 %	2.0 %	2.5 %
Ford	12.6 %	10.4 %	11.3 %
GM	15.1 %	14.0 %	16.8 %
Honda	9.3 %	8.8 %	9.2 %
Hyundai	6.1 %	6.0 %	5.4 %
Kia	5.7 %	4.8 %	5.4 %
Nissan	5.9 %	5.4 %	5.5 %
Stellantis	7.9 %	11.8 %	8.4 %
Subaru	4.7 %	4.7 %	4.7 %
Tesla	4.9 %	4.6 %	5.2 %
Toyota	14.8 %	15.6 %	14.0 %
Volkswagen Group	4.2 %	3.8 %	4.5 %
	95.5 %	94.9 %	95.6 %

 

ATP
Manufacturer	Feb 2023 Forecast	Feb 2022 Actual	Jan 2023 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$69,154	$62,124	$68,588	11.3 %	0.8 %
Daimler	$77,646	$74,332	$77,908	4.5 %	-0.3 %
Ford	$54,790	$48,605	$55,288	12.7 %	-0.9 %
GM	$51,523	$51,406	$51,789	0.2 %	-0.5 %
Honda	$37,841	$37,270	$37,080	1.5 %	2.1 %
Hyundai	$37,830	$37,550	$37,393	0.7 %	1.2 %
Kia	$34,631	$34,475	$34,324	0.5 %	0.9 %
Nissan	$38,779	$33,794	$37,671	14.8 %	2.9 %
Stellantis	$55,580	$52,848	$55,172	5.2 %	0.7 %
Subaru	$33,950	$34,202	$34,879	-0.7 %	-2.7 %
Toyota	$42,711	$40,902	$41,895	4.4 %	1.9 %
Volkswagen Group	$48,536	$47,916	$49,193	1.3 %	-1.3 %
Industry	$45,645	$43,382	$45,576	5.2 %	0.2 %
	$2,263		$69

 

Incentives
Manufacturer	Feb 2023 Forecast	Feb 2022 Actual	Jan 2023 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$2,376	$2,582	$2,571	-7.9 %	-7.6 %
Daimler	$2,044	$2,243	$1,842	-8.9 %	11.0 %
Ford	$1,283	$1,737	$1,121	-26.2 %	14.4 %
GM	$1,887	$1,963	$1,964	-3.8 %	-3.9 %
Honda	$1,189	$1,159	$1,335	2.7 %	-10.9 %
Hyundai	$875	$950	$856	-7.9 %	2.2 %
Kia	$684	$1,239	$688	-44.8 %	-0.5 %
Nissan	$1,994	$1,789	$1,855	11.5 %	7.5 %
Stellantis	$2,246	$2,570	$2,046	-12.6 %	9.7 %
Subaru	$983	$856	$917	14.8 %	7.2 %
Toyota	$676	$1,058	$683	-36.1 %	-1.0 %
Volkswagen Group	$1,969	$1,874	$1,843	5.0 %	6.8 %
Industry	$1,522	$1,657	$1,396	-8.1 %	9.0 %
	-$135		$126

 

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Feb 2023 Forecast	Feb 2022 Actual	Jan 2023 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	3.4 %	4.2 %	3.7 %	-17.3 %	-8.3 %
Daimler	2.6 %	3.0 %	2.4 %	-12.8 %	11.3 %
Ford	2.3 %	3.6 %	2.0 %	-34.5 %	15.4 %
GM	3.7 %	3.8 %	3.8 %	-4.1 %	-3.4 %
Honda	3.1 %	3.1 %	3.6 %	1.1 %	-12.7 %
Hyundai	2.3 %	2.5 %	2.3 %	-8.5 %	1.0 %
Kia	2.0 %	3.6 %	2.0 %	-45.0 %	-1.4 %
Nissan	5.1 %	5.3 %	4.9 %	-2.9 %	4.4 %
Stellantis	4.0 %	4.9 %	3.7 %	-16.9 %	8.9 %
Subaru	2.9 %	2.5 %	2.6 %	15.7 %	10.1 %
Toyota	1.6 %	2.6 %	1.6 %	-38.8 %	-2.9 %
Volkswagen Group	4.1 %	3.9 %	3.7 %	3.7 %	8.3 %
Industry	3.3 %	3.8 %	3.1 %	-12.7 %	8.9 %

 

Revenue
Manufacturer	Feb 2023 Forecast	Feb 2022 Actual	Jan 2023 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$51,003,836,774	$45,908,429,294	$48,570,898,969	11.1 %	5.0 %

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter. 

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SOURCE TrueCar.com

FAQ

What are the new vehicle sales forecast for February 2023 by TrueCar?

TrueCar forecasts new vehicle sales of 1,117,400 units for February 2023.

How much are retail vehicle deliveries expected to increase in February 2023?

U.S. retail deliveries are expected to be 928,386 units, up 1% from the previous year.

What is the expected change in fleet sales for February 2023?

Fleet sales are projected to increase by 33% in February 2023.

What is the estimated SAAR for total light vehicle sales in February 2023?

The estimated SAAR for total light vehicle sales is 14.5 million, down 3.8% from February 2022.

How do electric vehicle leases relate to government tax credits?

There is a surge in electric vehicle leases as consumers gain access to new tax credits, addressing affordability issues.