TrueCar Releases Analysis of April Industry Sales

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar expects April 2023 new vehicle sales to reach 1,328,691 units, reflecting a 10% increase year-over-year and stability compared to March 2023. Retail deliveries, excluding fleet sales, are projected at 1,109,132 units, up 8% from last year. Interest rates on vehicle loans have plateaued, with new vehicle rates at 6.95% and used vehicle rates down to 10.79%. The average transaction price for new vehicles is expected to rise by 2.8% year-over-year, while used vehicle sales could drop by 1% compared to April 2022. OEMs are expected to provide more incentives as inventory increases, especially for higher trim levels, catering to consumers increasingly interested in lower-priced vehicles.

Positive

• April total new vehicle sales forecasted at 1,328,691 units, a 10% YoY increase.
• Retail deliveries expected to be 1,109,132 units, marking an 8% YoY rise.
• Interest rates have stabilized, aiding both new and used vehicle affordability.
• Average transaction price for new vehicles projected to increase by 2.8% YoY.

Negative

• Used vehicle sales expected to decrease by 1% from the previous year.
• Fleet sales forecast shows a decline of 7.6% from March 2023.

Average APRs stabilizing for new and used vehicles

SANTA MONICA, Calif., April 26, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,328,691 units in April 2023, up 10% from a year ago and about even with March 2023, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,109,132 units, up 8% from a year ago and up 1% from March 2023.

"Sales are expected to improve in April YoY with strong fleet demand and stabilizing APRs," said Zack Krelle, Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Interest rates on vehicle loans appear to be plateauing as manufacturers offset higher financing costs with increased APR-based relief. Welcomed good news for retail consumers. Affordability concerns remain and we're seeing demand for lower-priced vehicles, under $30K, move vehicles off the lot more quickly."

"During the pandemic, OEMs focused on building higher trim vehicles, and now that inventory has begun creeping back up, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw increased incentives to make the higher trim options more appealing when many consumers are searching for lower trim levels," said Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Additional April Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

• Total sales for April 2023 are expected to be up 10% from a year ago and about even with March 2023 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for April 2023 are expected to be up 20% from a year ago and down 7.6% from March 2023 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to be up 2.8% from a year ago and down 1% from March 2023.
• Used vehicle sales for April 2023 are expected to reach about 3 million, down 1% from a year ago and down 6% from March 2023. 
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 6.95%, on par with March 2023 and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 10.79%, down from 11% in March 2023.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for April 2023 is about 69 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is about 70 months.
  
  

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Apr 2023 Forecast	Apr 2022 Actual	Mar 2023 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	35,640	28,678	37,734	24.3 %	29.1 %	-5.5 %	-1.9 %
Daimler	28,979	31,065	28,179	-6.7 %	-3.1 %	2.8 %	6.8 %
Ford	170,398	175,942	170,414	-3.2 %	0.6 %	0.0 %	3.8 %
GM	227,111	200,972	230,537	13.0 %	17.4 %	-1.5 %	2.3 %
Honda	115,849	93,250	116,746	24.2 %	29.0 %	-0.8 %	3.0 %
Hyundai	75,816	66,707	81,060	13.7 %	18.0 %	-6.5 %	-2.9 %
Kia	68,723	59,063	71,294	16.4 %	20.8 %	-3.6 %	0.1 %
Nissan	83,862	74,668	103,174	12.3 %	16.6 %	-18.7 %	-15.6 %
Stellantis	128,743	143,078	140,019	-10.0 %	-6.6 %	-8.1 %	-4.5 %
Subaru	49,445	45,748	53,213	8.1 %	12.2 %	-7.1 %	-3.5 %
Tesla	55,832	48,432	58,859	15.3 %	19.7 %	-5.1 %	-1.5 %
Toyota	178,095	186,510	175,684	-4.5 %	-0.8 %	1.4 %	5.3 %
Volkswagen Group	50,302	45,949	51,521	9.5 %	13.7 %	-2.4 %	1.4 %
Industry	1,328,691	1,254,895	1,383,158	5.9 %	10.0 %	-3.9 %	-0.2 %

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Apr 2023 Forecast	Apr 2022 Actual	Mar 2023 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	33,389	27,550	35,607	21.2 %	25.9 %	-6.2 %	-2.6 %
Daimler	27,031	29,137	26,853	-7.2 %	-3.7 %	0.7 %	4.5 %
Ford	121,696	129,821	118,645	-6.3 %	-2.7 %	2.6 %	6.5 %
GM	171,040	156,562	174,836	9.2 %	13.4 %	-2.2 %	1.6 %
Honda	112,218	88,044	114,449	27.5 %	32.4 %	-1.9 %	1.8 %
Hyundai	70,469	66,027	75,046	6.7 %	10.8 %	-6.1 %	-2.5 %
Kia	66,569	55,539	63,443	19.9 %	24.5 %	4.9 %	9.0 %
Nissan	64,097	60,982	75,367	5.1 %	9.2 %	-15.0 %	-11.7 %
Stellantis	91,618	112,947	92,021	-18.9 %	-15.8 %	-0.4 %	3.4 %
Subaru	46,343	44,306	50,478	4.6 %	8.6 %	-8.2 %	-4.7 %
Tesla	54,087	37,470	57,758	44.3 %	49.9 %	-6.4 %	-2.8 %
Toyota	158,275	164,168	153,561	-3.6 %	0.1 %	3.1 %	7.0 %
Volkswagen Group	46,166	44,503	47,836	3.7 %	7.7 %	-3.5 %	0.2 %
Industry	1,109,132	1,068,187	1,137,316	3.8 %	7.8 %	-2.5 %	1.3 %

Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Apr 2023 Forecast	Apr 2022 Actual	Mar 2023 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	2,251	1,128	2,127	99.6 %	107.3 %	5.8 %	9.9 %
Daimler	1,948	1,928	1,326	1.0 %	4.9 %	46.9 %	52.6 %
Ford	48,702	46,121	51,769	5.6 %	9.7 %	-5.9 %	-2.3 %
GM	56,071	44,410	55,701	26.3 %	31.1 %	0.7 %	4.5 %
Honda	3,631	5,206	2,297	-30.2 %	-27.6 %	58.1 %	64.2 %
Hyundai	5,347	680	6,014	686.6 %	716.8 %	-11.1 %	-7.7 %
Kia	2,154	3,524	7,851	-38.9 %	-36.5 %	-72.6 %	-71.5 %
Nissan	19,765	13,686	27,807	44.4 %	50.0 %	-28.9 %	-26.2 %
Stellantis	37,125	30,131	47,998	23.2 %	28.0 %	-22.7 %	-19.7 %
Subaru	3,102	1,442	2,735	115.1 %	123.3 %	13.4 %	17.8 %
Tesla	1,745	10,962	1,101	-84.1 %	-83.5 %	58.4 %	64.5 %
Toyota	19,820	22,342	22,123	-11.3 %	-7.9 %	-10.4 %	-7.0 %
Volkswagen Group	4,136	1,446	3,685	186.1 %	197.1 %	12.2 %	16.5 %
Industry	215,593	186,510	242,300	15.6 %	20.0 %	-11.0 %	-7.6 %

Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Apr 2023 Forecast	Apr 2022 Actual	Mar 2023 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	6.3 %	3.9 %	5.6 %	60.6 %	12.0 %
Daimler	6.7 %	6.2 %	4.7 %	8.3 %	42.8 %
Ford	28.6 %	26.2 %	30.4 %	9.0 %	-5.9 %
GM	24.7 %	22.1 %	24.2 %	11.7 %	2.2 %
Honda	3.1 %	5.6 %	2.0 %	-43.9 %	59.3 %
Hyundai	7.1 %	1.0 %	7.4 %	592.1 %	-4.9 %
Kia	3.1 %	6.0 %	11.0 %	-47.5 %	-71.5 %
Nissan	23.6 %	18.3 %	27.0 %	28.6 %	-12.6 %
Stellantis	28.8 %	21.1 %	34.3 %	36.9 %	-15.9 %
Subaru	6.3 %	3.2 %	5.1 %	99.0 %	22.1 %
Tesla	3.1 %	22.6 %	1.9 %	-86.2 %	67.0 %
Toyota	11.1 %	12.0 %	12.6 %	-7.1 %	-11.6 %
Volkswagen Group	8.2 %	3.1 %	7.2 %	161.4 %	14.9 %
Industry	16.2 %	14.9 %	17.5 %	9.2 %	-7.4 %

Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Apr 2023 Forecast	Apr 2022 Actual	Mar 2023 Actual
BMW	2.7 %	2.3 %	2.7 %
Daimler	2.2 %	2.5 %	2.0 %
Ford	12.8 %	14.0 %	12.3 %
GM	17.1 %	16.0 %	16.7 %
Honda	8.7 %	7.4 %	8.4 %
Hyundai	5.7 %	5.3 %	5.9 %
Kia	5.2 %	4.7 %	5.2 %
Nissan	6.3 %	6.0 %	7.5 %
Stellantis	9.7 %	11.4 %	10.1 %
Subaru	3.7 %	3.6 %	3.8 %
Tesla	4.2 %	3.9 %	4.3 %
Toyota	13.4 %	14.9 %	12.7 %
Volkswagen Group	3.8 %	3.7 %	3.7 %
	95.5 %	95.6 %	95.3 %

Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Apr 2023 Forecast	Apr 2022 Actual	Mar 2023 Actual
BMW	3.0 %	2.6 %	3.1 %
Daimler	2.4 %	2.7 %	2.4 %
Ford	11.0 %	12.2 %	10.4 %
GM	15.4 %	14.7 %	15.4 %
Honda	10.1 %	8.2 %	10.1 %
Hyundai	6.4 %	6.2 %	6.6 %
Kia	6.0 %	5.2 %	5.6 %
Nissan	5.8 %	5.7 %	6.6 %
Stellantis	8.3 %	10.6 %	8.1 %
Subaru	4.2 %	4.1 %	4.4 %
Tesla	4.9 %	3.5 %	5.1 %
Toyota	14.3 %	15.4 %	13.5 %
Volkswagen Group	4.2 %	4.2 %	4.2 %
	95.8 %	95.2 %	95.5 %

ATP
Manufacturer	Apr 2023 Forecast	Apr 2022 Actual	Mar 2023 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$69,233	$66,630	$68,176	3.9 %	1.6 %
Daimler	$79,179	$68,382	$79,373	15.8 %	-0.2 %
Ford	$53,313	$48,862	$52,560	9.1 %	1.4 %
GM	$51,853	$50,401	$52,576	2.9 %	-1.4 %
Honda	$37,753	$36,406	$38,019	3.7 %	-0.7 %
Hyundai	$37,372	$36,863	$36,729	1.4 %	1.7 %
Kia	$34,246	$34,700	$33,716	-1.3 %	1.6 %
Nissan	$36,834	$35,883	$37,817	2.7 %	-2.6 %
Stellantis	$56,804	$54,168	$55,629	4.9 %	2.1 %
Subaru	$34,836	$34,904	$34,954	-0.2 %	-0.3 %
Toyota	$43,174	$39,814	$43,068	8.4 %	0.2 %
Volkswagen Group	$48,582	$48,545	$48,823	0.1 %	-0.5 %
Industry	$45,251	$44,018	$45,651	2.8 %	-0.9 %
	$1,233		-$399

Incentives
Manufacturer	Apr 2023 Forecast	Apr 2022 Actual	Mar 2023 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$3,131	$1,309	$3,020	139.2 %	3.7 %
Daimler	$3,096	$1,354	$2,823	128.6 %	9.7 %
Ford	$1,496	$1,435	$1,391	4.3 %	7.5 %
GM	$2,026	$1,926	$1,837	5.2 %	10.3 %
Honda	$957	$960	$1,083	-0.3 %	-11.6 %
Hyundai	$1,081	$775	$1,086	39.4 %	-0.5 %
Kia	$819	$669	$755	22.5 %	8.5 %
Nissan	$1,944	$1,595	$1,979	21.9 %	-1.8 %
Stellantis	$2,818	$1,925	$2,525	46.4 %	11.6 %
Subaru	$832	$719	$826	15.8 %	0.8 %
Toyota	$684	$844	$750	-18.9 %	-8.8 %
Volkswagen Group	$2,655	$1,252	$2,603	112.1 %	2.0 %
Industry	$1,606	$1,327	$1,542	21.0 %	4.1 %
	$278		$64

Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Apr 2023 Forecast	Apr 2022 Actual	Mar 2023 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	4.5 %	2.0 %	4.4 %	130.3 %	2.1 %
Daimler	3.9 %	2.0 %	3.6 %	97.5 %	9.9 %
Ford	2.8 %	2.9 %	2.6 %	-4.4 %	6.0 %
GM	3.9 %	3.8 %	3.5 %	2.3 %	11.9 %
Honda	2.5 %	2.6 %	2.8 %	-3.9 %	-11.0 %
Hyundai	2.9 %	2.1 %	3.0 %	37.6 %	-2.2 %
Kia	2.4 %	1.9 %	2.2 %	24.1 %	6.8 %
Nissan	5.3 %	4.4 %	5.2 %	18.7 %	0.9 %
Stellantis	5.0 %	3.6 %	4.5 %	39.6 %	9.3 %
Subaru	2.4 %	2.1 %	2.4 %	16.0 %	1.1 %
Toyota	1.6 %	2.1 %	1.7 %	-25.2 %	-9.0 %
Volkswagen Group	5.5 %	2.6 %	5.3 %	111.9 %	2.5 %
Industry	3.5 %	3.0 %	3.4 %	17.7 %	5.1 %

Revenue
Manufacturer	Apr 2023 Forecast	Apr 2022 Actual	Mar 2023 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$60,125,012,997	$55,238,281,390	$63,142,196,182	8.8 %	-4.8 %

 

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.  

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SOURCE TrueCar.com

FAQ

What is TrueCar's sales forecast for April 2023?

TrueCar expects new vehicle sales to reach 1,328,691 units in April 2023.

How much is the expected retail delivery increase for April 2023 compared to last year?

Retail deliveries are expected to increase by 8% year-over-year to 1,109,132 units.

What are the average vehicle loan interest rates for April 2023?

The average interest rate for new vehicles is 6.95%, while used vehicle rates are down to 10.79%.

Is there a forecast for the average transaction price of new vehicles in April 2023?

Yes, the average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to increase by 2.8% year-over-year.

How are fleet sales expected to perform in April 2023?

Fleet sales are expected to decline by 7.6% from March 2023.