TrueCar Forecasts Total New Vehicle Sales up 97% for April 2021 Compared to Prior Year When Sales Bottomed Out Due to the Pandemic

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar forecasts April 2021 U.S. new vehicle sales to reach 1,402,135 units, a 97% increase year-over-year but a 12.6% decline from March 2021. The estimated seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for light vehicle sales is 17.1 million, up from 8.7 million in April 2020. Retail sales are projected at 1,259,036 units, up 94.5% year-over-year. Despite tight inventory and a 27.8% drop in incentives, the outlook remains positive for the auto industry, showcasing recovery from pandemic lows.

Positive

• Total new vehicle sales forecasted at 1,402,135 units, a 97% increase YoY.
• Retail sales expected to rise by 94.5% YoY, indicating strong demand.
• SAAR for light vehicle sales estimated at 17.1 million, reflecting recovery.

Negative

• Sales down 12.6% from March 2021, indicating potential market weakness.
• Incentive spend down 27.8%, the lowest since April 2016, may hinder consumer purchasing power.

SANTA MONICA, Calif., April 27, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,402,135 units in April 2021, up 97% from a year ago and down 12.6% from March 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.1 million, bouncing back from 8.7 million SAAR in April 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,259,036 units, an increase of 94.5% from a year ago and a decrease of 11.8% from March 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

"April of last year was the first full month of COVID-19's impact on the day-to-day lives of Americans and the economy, and saw vehicle sales plummet to the lowest point during the pandemic. Despite the inventory challenges that linger, seeing total and retail sales up nearly 100% in one year is a hopeful and exciting milestone for the auto industry and economy," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar.

"The domestics kicked up their 0% APR for 84-month sales promotions last April to spur demand which is why they were not down as much as others this time last year and are up double digits compared with most other brands that are up triple digits year-over-year," added Woolard.

"Inventory remains tight and incentives are down nearly 30% from last year so consumers need to be savvy and ready to make some concessions in order to find the car they want at the price they want to pay," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "Expanding the search criteria and removing filters will expand the options. And as used vehicle prices continue to rise and the gap between new and used vehicles continues to narrow, consumers should consider cross-shopping new and used to get the best value."

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

• Total retail sales for April 2021 are expected to be up 95% from a year ago and down 11.8% from March 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for April 2021 are expected to be up 125% from a year ago and down 20% from March 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 27.8% from last year and is the lowest since April 2016.
• Average transaction price is projected to be flat from a year ago and down 0.2% from March 2021.
• Total SAAR is expected to increase 97% from a year ago from 8.72 million units to 17.1 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for April 2021 are expected to reach 3.4 million, up 58% from a year ago and down 6% from March 2021.
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 5.7% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.4%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for April 2021 is 73 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 68 months.

April 2021 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data, visit the TrueCar Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Apr 2021 Forecast	Apr 2020 Actual	Mar 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	21,526	8,255	31,888	160.8%	160.8%	-32.5%	-32.5%
Daimler	20,230	11,278	24,651	79.4%	79.4%	-17.9%	-17.9%
Ford	193,297	119,591	213,300	61.6%	61.6%	-9.4%	-9.4%
GM	197,754	137,573	245,606	43.7%	43.7%	-19.5%	-19.5%
Honda	146,576	57,751	148,538	153.8%	153.8%	-1.3%	-1.3%
Hyundai	72,732	34,774	78,409	109.2%	109.2%	-7.2%	-7.2%
Kia	48,548	31,705	66,523	53.1%	53.1%	-27.0%	-27.0%
Nissan	95,624	46,689	128,334	104.8%	104.8%	-25.5%	-25.5%
Stellantis	153,837	92,053	183,333	67.1%	67.1%	-16.1%	-16.1%
Subaru	77,491	30,620	65,726	153.1%	153.1%	17.9%	17.9%
Tesla	28,521	6,200	23,050	360.0%	360.0%	23.7%	23.7%
Toyota	229,351	85,163	256,485	169.3%	169.3%	-10.6%	-10.6%
Volkswagen Group	59,552	28,347	70,276	110.1%	110.1%	-15.3%	-15.3%
Industry	1,402,135	710,827	1,604,983	97.3%	97.3%	-12.6%	-12.6%
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Apr 2021 Forecast	Apr 2020 Actual	Mar 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	21,212	8,108	31,340	161.6%	161.6%	-32.3%	-32.3%
Daimler	18,955	10,684	24,147	77.4%	77.4%	-21.5%	-21.5%
Ford	144,336	96,580	173,386	49.4%	49.4%	-16.8%	-16.8%
GM	171,110	121,681	213,654	40.6%	40.6%	-19.9%	-19.9%
Honda	145,611	57,301	147,917	154.1%	154.1%	-1.6%	-1.6%
Hyundai	69,752	33,984	75,339	105.3%	105.3%	-7.4%	-7.4%
Kia	47,644	30,898	64,048	54.2%	54.2%	-25.6%	-25.6%
Nissan	80,001	39,648	105,841	101.8%	101.8%	-24.4%	-24.4%
Stellantis	137,611	82,948	151,435	65.9%	65.9%	-9.1%	-9.1%
Subaru	75,607	29,741	63,276	154.2%	154.2%	19.5%	19.5%
Tesla	28,415	6,200	23,042	358.3%	358.3%	23.3%	23.3%
Toyota	209,026	81,857	226,861	155.4%	155.4%	-7.9%	-7.9%
Volkswagen Group	58,990	28,085	69,254	110.0%	110.0%	-14.8%	-14.8%
Industry	1,259,036	647,164	1,427,357	94.5%	94.5%	-11.8%	-11.8%
Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	Apr 2021 Forecast	Apr 2020 Actual	Mar 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	314	147	548	114.4%	114.4%	-42.6%	-42.6%
Daimler	1,275	594	504	114.4%	114.4%	152.8%	152.8%
Ford	48,961	23,011	39,914	112.8%	112.8%	22.7%	22.7%
GM	26,644	15,892	31,952	67.7%	67.7%	-16.6%	-16.6%
Honda	965	450	621	114.4%	114.4%	55.4%	55.4%
Hyundai	2,980	790	3,070	277.2%	277.2%	-2.9%	-2.9%
Kia	904	807	2,475	12.0%	12.0%	-63.5%	-63.5%
Nissan	15,623	7,041	22,493	121.9%	121.9%	-30.5%	-30.5%
Stellantis	16,226	9,105	31,898	78.2%	78.2%	-49.1%	-49.1%
Subaru	1,884	879	2,450	114.4%	114.4%	-23.1%	-23.1%
Tesla	106	-	8			1255.1%	1255.1%
Toyota	20,325	3,306	29,624	514.8%	514.8%	-31.4%	-31.4%
Volkswagen Group	562	262	1,022	114.4%	114.4%	-45.1%	-45.1%
Industry	143,098	63,663	177,626	124.8%	124.8%	-19.4%	-19.4%
Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	Apr 2021 Forecast	Apr 2020 Actual	Mar 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	1.5%	1.8%	1.7%	-17.8%	-15.0%
Daimler	6.3%	5.3%	2.0%	19.5%	208.0%
Ford	25.3%	19.2%	18.7%	31.6%	35.4%
GM	13.5%	11.6%	13.0%	16.6%	3.6%
Honda	0.7%	0.8%	0.4%	-15.5%	57.5%
Hyundai	4.1%	2.3%	3.9%	80.3%	4.7%
Kia	1.9%	2.5%	3.7%	-26.8%	-49.9%
Nissan	16.3%	15.1%	17.5%	8.3%	-6.8%
Stellantis	10.5%	9.9%	17.4%	6.6%	-39.4%
Subaru	2.4%	2.9%	3.7%	-15.3%	-34.8%
Tesla	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%		995.1%
Toyota	8.9%	3.9%	11.6%	128.3%	-23.3%
Volkswagen Group	0.9%	0.9%	1.5%	2.1%	-35.2%
Industry	10.2%	9.0%	11.1%	14.0%	-7.8%
Total Market Share
Manufacturer	Apr 2021 Forecast	Apr 2020 Actual	Mar 2021 Actual
BMW	1.5%	1.2%	2.0%
Daimler	1.4%	1.6%	1.5%
Ford	13.8%	16.8%	13.3%
GM	14.1%	19.4%	15.3%
Honda	10.5%	8.1%	9.3%
Hyundai	5.2%	4.9%	4.9%
Kia	3.5%	4.5%	4.1%
Nissan	6.8%	6.6%	8.0%
Stellantis	11.0%	13.0%	11.4%
Subaru	5.5%	4.3%	4.1%
Tesla	2.0%	0.9%	1.4%
Toyota	16.4%	12.0%	16.0%
Volkswagen Group	4.2%	4.0%	4.4%
	95.9%	97.1%	95.7%
Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	Apr 2021 Forecast	Apr 2020 Actual	Mar 2021 Actual
BMW	1.7%	1.3%	2.2%
Daimler	1.5%	1.7%	1.7%
Ford	11.5%	14.9%	12.1%
GM	13.6%	18.8%	15.0%
Honda	11.6%	8.9%	10.4%
Hyundai	5.5%	5.3%	5.3%
Kia	3.8%	4.8%	4.5%
Nissan	6.4%	6.1%	7.4%
Stellantis	10.9%	12.8%	10.6%
Subaru	6.0%	4.6%	4.4%
Tesla	2.3%	1.0%	1.6%
Toyota	16.6%	12.6%	15.9%
Volkswagen Group	4.7%	4.3%	4.9%
	96.0%	97.0%	95.9%
ATP
Manufacturer	Apr 2021 Forecast	Apr 2020 Actual	Mar 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$58,542	$58,415	$59,151	0.2%	-1.0%
Daimler	$60,307	$60,359	$61,211	-0.1%	-1.5%
Ford	$43,808	$43,335	$44,143	1.1%	-0.8%
GM	$42,981	$41,246	$41,335	4.2%	4.0%
Honda	$31,280	$29,960	$31,519	4.4%	-0.8%
Hyundai	$28,864	$27,742	$29,186	4.0%	-1.1%
Kia	$28,511	$25,671	$28,248	11.1%	0.9%
Nissan	$30,217	$29,127	$29,520	3.7%	2.4%
Stellantis	$44,386	$42,491	$42,777	4.5%	3.8%
Subaru	$30,408	$31,118	$30,382	-2.3%	0.1%
Toyota	$34,500	$34,159	$34,361	1.0%	0.4%
Volkswagen Group	$44,401	$41,836	$44,103	6.1%	0.7%
Industry	$37,144	$37,161	$37,215	0.0%	-0.2%
	-$17.6		-$72
Incentives
Manufacturer	Apr 2021 Forecast	Apr 2020 Actual	Mar 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$4,559	$6,031	$4,997	-24.4%	-8.8%
Daimler	$4,187	$7,289	$4,221	-42.6%	-0.8%
Ford	$2,935	$4,406	$3,042	-33.4%	-3.5%
GM	$4,699	$5,809	$4,836	-19.1%	-2.8%
Honda	$2,294	$2,825	$2,382	-18.8%	-3.7%
Hyundai	$2,392	$2,731	$2,541	-12.4%	-5.8%
Kia	$2,609	$4,016	$2,817	-35.0%	-7.4%
Nissan	$3,047	$4,774	$3,331	-36.2%	-8.5%
Stellantis	$3,753	$5,622	$4,640	-33.2%	-19.1%
Subaru	$1,272	$1,765	$1,275	-27.9%	-0.2%
Toyota	$2,476	$2,419	$2,774	2.4%	-10.7%
Volkswagen Group	$4,001	$4,480	$4,001	-10.7%	0.0%
Industry	$3,102	$4,297	$3,424	-27.8%	-9.4%
	-$1,195		-$322
Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	Apr 2021 Forecast	Apr 2020 Actual	Mar 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	7.8%	10.3%	8.4%	-24.6%	-7.8%
Daimler	6.9%	12.1%	6.9%	-42.5%	0.7%
Ford	6.7%	10.2%	6.9%	-34.1%	-2.8%
GM	10.9%	14.1%	11.7%	-22.4%	-6.6%
Honda	7.3%	9.4%	7.6%	-22.2%	-3.0%
Hyundai	8.3%	9.8%	8.7%	-15.8%	-4.8%
Kia	9.2%	15.6%	10.0%	-41.5%	-8.2%
Nissan	10.1%	16.4%	11.3%	-38.5%	-10.6%
Stellantis	8.5%	13.2%	10.8%	-36.1%	-22.0%
Subaru	4.2%	5.7%	4.2%	-26.2%	-0.3%
Toyota	7.2%	7.1%	8.1%	1.4%	-11.1%
Volkswagen Group	9.0%	10.7%	9.1%	-15.9%	-0.7%
Industry	8.4%	11.6%	9.2%	-27.8%	-9.2%
Revenue
Manufacturer	Apr 2021 Forecast	Apr 2020 Actual	Mar 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$52,080,395,420	$26,415,189,900	$59,729,977,426	97.2%	-12.8%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com 

TrueCar Public Relations Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694

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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.

FAQ

What is TrueCar's April 2021 sales forecast?

TrueCar forecasts total new vehicle sales of 1,402,135 units for April 2021.

How much have vehicle sales increased year-over-year?

Vehicle sales are expected to increase by 97% year-over-year in April 2021.

What is the estimated SAAR for April 2021?

The estimated SAAR for April 2021 is 17.1 million.

What are the retail sales projections for April 2021?

Retail sales are projected at 1,259,036 units, up 94.5% from last year.

How have inventory and incentives changed in April 2021?

Inventory remains tight with incentives down 27.8% from last year.