TrueCar Forecasts Total New Vehicle Sales Up 42% Year-Over-Year for March 2021 in First Year-Over-Year Compare Since Covid-19 Impact on Industry

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar forecasts a significant increase in total new vehicle sales for March 2021, estimating 1,460,820 units, a 42% rise from last year and 13% from February 2021. The adjusted annualized sales rate is projected at 16.4 million units. Retail deliveries are expected to reach 1,260,416 units, reflecting a 53% year-over-year increase. Average transaction prices will rise by 3.3% compared to last year. However, production issues, particularly with microchips, may affect supply, hindering some consumers' ability to find specific vehicles.

Positive

• Total new vehicle sales projected to reach 1,460,820 units, a 42% increase YoY.
• Retail deliveries expected at 1,260,416 units, a 53% rise YoY.
• Average transaction prices projected to increase by 3.3% YoY.

Negative

• Production complications due to microchip shortages may impact vehicle supply.

SANTA MONICA, Calif., March 25, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent way to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,460,820 units in March 2021, up 42% from a year ago and up 13% from February 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.4 million units. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,260,416 units, an increase of 53% from a year ago and an increase of 10% from February 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

"The pandemic's dramatic impact on the automotive industry and U.S. economy at large began in the last two weeks of March 2020 when dealerships and OEM plants shut down and stay at home mandates rolled out, which gives us our first year-over-year sales compare," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar.  "Automotive sales dropped 38% from 2019, so it's no surprise that we're seeing total sales up 42% and retail sales up 53% when compared to the March 2020. Looking at the year-over-year sales forecast, domestic brands such as GM and Ford, fared much better because parts of the country that hold a majority of trucks sales from these brands had not yet rolled out their state stay at home orders at this point last year."  

"In order to get back to a full recovery we need to see improvement in fleet sales.  This month we expect to see further encouraging trends in fleet as commercial activity picks up as well as some rental fleet as travel slowly resumes," added Woolard.

Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 3.3% or $1,185 from a year ago and down 0.6% or $231 from February 2021. TrueCar projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach approximately $54.8 billion for March 2021, up 52% (based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and up 21% from last month.

"As consumers receive their stimulus checks and tax refunds, we expect demand for vehicles to increase. At the same time, production complications such as with microchips and shortages of other core materials are affecting a number of automakers, and retailers are struggling to have enough supply to meet the strong demand," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President, OEM Solutions at TrueCar.  "Consumers who are very specific about the vehicle they want to purchase may need to be extra patient, as they will likely have a harder time finding their first choice of color or trim when shopping."

"Vehicles are turning on dealer lots very quickly because of the supply and demand imbalance. In fact, according to TrueCar's new car inventory data, the average vehicle is in inventory for only 56 days, which is two weeks less on the dealer lot than during this exact time last year," added Tompkins.  "This is also causing the price of used vehicles to increase significantly year-over-year. The average listing of the used vehicle on TrueCar is up $2,300 year-over-year, so if consumers are looking to sell their used vehicles, now is a great time."

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

• Total retail sales for March 2021 are expected to be up 42% from a year ago and up 13% from February 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for March 2021 are expected to be down 2.5% from a year ago and up 35% from February 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Average transaction price is projected to be up 3.3% or $1,185 from a year ago and down 0.6% or $231 from February 2021.
• Total SAAR is expected to increase 44% from a year ago from 11.4 million units to 16.4 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for March 2021 are expected to reach 3.6 million, up 104% from a year ago and up 1% from February 2021.  
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.7% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8.3%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for March 2021 is 70 months, a two-month decrease, when compared to the average loan term of 72 months from this time last year.

Quarterly Insights: (forecast by TrueCar)

• Total unit sales for Q1 are expected to be up 10% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and down 4% from Q1 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Total retail sales for Q1 are expected to be up 21% from last year when adjusted for the same number of selling days and down 7% from Q1 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

March 2021 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume. For additional data, visit the TrueCar Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer	Mar 2021 Forecast	Mar 2020 Actual	Feb 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	30,562	16,301	26,393	87.5%	80.3%	15.8%	6.9%
Daimler	21,785	18,571	20,317	17.3%	12.8%	7.2%	-1.0%
Ford	198,748	169,012	161,834	17.6%	13.1%	22.8%	13.4%
GM	232,535	169,952	191,846	36.8%	31.6%	21.2%	11.9%
Honda	140,062	77,153	106,328	81.5%	74.6%	31.7%	21.6%
Hyundai	68,370	36,087	50,735	89.5%	82.2%	34.8%	24.4%
Kia	57,908	45,413	48,062	27.5%	22.6%	20.5%	11.2%
Nissan	105,897	77,655	86,138	36.4%	31.1%	22.9%	13.5%
Stellantis	164,111	127,596	151,912	28.6%	23.7%	8.0%	-0.3%
Subaru	63,277	32,611	48,300	94.0%	86.6%	31.0%	20.9%
Tesla	24,513	13,400	21,550	82.9%	75.9%	13.8%	5.0%
Toyota	231,965	133,198	184,249	74.2%	67.5%	25.9%	16.2%
Volkswagen Group	56,673	33,780	46,846	67.8%	61.3%	21.0%	11.7%
Industry	1,460,820	990,332	1,196,008	47.5%	41.8%	22.1%	12.7%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer	Mar 2021 Forecast	Mar 2020 Actual	Feb 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	30,025	14,846	25,931	102.2%	94.5%	15.8%	6.9%
Daimler	21,340	17,377	19,901	22.8%	18.1%	7.2%	-1.0%
Ford	151,462	112,495	131,563	34.6%	29.5%	15.1%	6.3%
GM	197,743	136,443	166,641	44.9%	39.4%	18.7%	9.5%
Honda	139,478	75,901	105,882	83.8%	76.7%	31.7%	21.6%
Hyundai	62,455	30,270	46,342	106.3%	98.4%	34.8%	24.4%
Kia	51,040	36,849	46,274	38.5%	33.2%	10.3%	1.8%
Nissan	74,593	50,853	71,069	46.7%	41.0%	5.0%	-3.1%
Stellantis	138,109	98,725	124,864	39.9%	34.5%	10.6%	2.1%
Subaru	60,918	30,623	46,499	98.9%	91.3%	31.0%	20.9%
Tesla	24,505	13,400	21,543	82.9%	75.8%	13.8%	5.0%
Toyota	201,930	115,551	162,434	74.8%	68.0%	24.3%	14.8%
Volkswagen Group	55,823	29,298	46,150	90.5%	83.2%	21.0%	11.7%
Industry	1,260,416	792,735	1,059,009	59.0%	52.9%	19.0%	9.9%

Fleet Unit Sales

Manufacturer	Mar 2021 Forecast	Mar 2020 Actual	Feb 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	536	1,455	462	-63.1%	-64.6%	16.1%	7.2%
Daimler	446	1,194	416	-62.7%	-64.1%	7.2%	-1.0%
Ford	47,286	56,517	30,271	-16.3%	-19.6%	56.2%	44.2%
GM	34,792	33,509	25,205	3.8%	-0.2%	38.0%	27.4%
Honda	585	1,252	446	-53.3%	-55.1%	31.2%	21.1%
Hyundai	5,914	5,817	4,393	1.7%	-2.2%	34.6%	24.3%
Kia	6,868	8,564	1,788	-19.8%	-22.9%	284.1%	254.6%
Nissan	31,304	26,802	15,069	16.8%	12.3%	107.7%	91.8%
Stellantis	26,002	28,871	27,048	-9.9%	-13.4%	-3.9%	-11.3%
Subaru	2,359	1,988	1,801	18.7%	14.1%	31.0%	20.9%
Tesla	8	-	7			13.8%	5.0%
Toyota	30,036	17,647	21,815	70.2%	63.7%	37.7%	27.1%
Volkswagen Group	850	4,482	696	-81.0%	-81.8%	22.1%	12.7%
Industry	200,404	197,597	136,999	1.4%	-2.5%	46.3%	35.0%

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer	Mar 2021 Forecast	Mar 2020 Actual	Feb 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	1.8%	8.9%	1.7%	-80.3%	0.3%
Daimler	2.0%	6.4%	2.0%	-68.2%	0.0%
Ford	23.8%	33.4%	18.7%	-28.9%	27.2%
GM	15.0%	19.7%	13.1%	-24.1%	13.9%
Honda	0.4%	1.6%	0.4%	-74.3%	-0.4%
Hyundai	8.7%	16.1%	8.7%	-46.3%	-0.1%
Kia	11.9%	18.9%	3.7%	-37.1%	218.8%
Nissan	29.6%	34.5%	17.5%	-14.4%	69.0%
Stellantis	15.8%	22.6%	17.8%	-30.0%	-11.0%
Subaru	3.7%	6.1%	3.7%	-38.8%	0.0%
Tesla	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
Toyota	12.9%	13.2%	11.8%	-2.3%	9.4%
Volkswagen Group	1.5%	13.3%	1.5%	-88.7%	1.0%
Industry	17.4%	23.4%	11.1%	-25.7%	56.6%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer	Mar 2021 Forecast	Mar 2020 Actual	Feb 2021 Actual
BMW	2.1%	1.6%	2.2%
Daimler	1.5%	1.9%	1.7%
Ford	13.6%	17.1%	13.5%
GM	15.9%	17.2%	16.0%
Honda	9.6%	7.8%	8.9%
Hyundai	4.7%	3.6%	4.2%
Kia	4.0%	4.6%	4.0%
Nissan	7.2%	7.8%	7.2%
Stellantis	11.2%	12.9%	12.7%
Subaru	4.3%	3.3%	4.0%
Tesla	1.7%	1.4%	1.8%
Toyota	15.9%	13.4%	15.4%
Volkswagen Group	3.9%	3.4%	3.9%

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer	Mar 2021 Forecast	Mar 2020 Actual	Feb 2021 Actual
BMW	2.4%	1.9%	2.4%
Daimler	1.7%	2.2%	1.9%
Ford	12.0%	14.2%	12.4%
GM	15.7%	17.2%	15.7%
Honda	11.1%	9.6%	10.0%
Hyundai	5.0%	3.8%	4.4%
Kia	4.0%	4.6%	4.4%
Nissan	5.9%	6.4%	6.7%
Stellantis	11.0%	12.5%	11.8%
Subaru	4.8%	3.9%	4.4%
Tesla	1.9%	1.7%	2.0%
Toyota	16.0%	14.6%	15.3%
Volkswagen Group	4.4%	3.7%	4.4%

Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer	Mar 2021 Forecast	Mar 2020 Actual	Feb 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$61,139	$60,337	$60,892	1.3%	0.4%
Daimler	$62,082	$59,749	$62,153	3.9%	-0.1%
Ford	$44,293	$42,774	$44,125	3.6%	0.4%
GM	$41,860	$40,700	$41,408	2.9%	1.1%
Honda	$31,916	$29,727	$31,950	7.4%	-0.1%
Hyundai	$30,281	$28,343	$30,517	6.8%	-0.8%
Kia	$28,604	$26,360	$28,498	8.5%	0.4%
Nissan	$29,512	$27,926	$29,381	5.7%	0.4%
Stellantis	$43,086	$40,817	$42,747	5.6%	0.8%
Subaru	$30,389	$30,344	$30,511	0.1%	-0.4%
Toyota	$34,708	$33,437	$34,984	3.8%	-0.8%
Volkswagen Group	$44,496	$41,017	$43,704	8.5%	1.8%
Industry	$37,549	$36,364	$37,780	3.3%	-0.6%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer		Mar 2021 Forecast	Mar 2020 Actual	Feb 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$4,825		$6,318	$5,238	-23.6%	-7.9%
Daimler	$3,799		$5,722	$3,948	-33.6%	-3.8%
Ford	$3,144		$4,024	$3,388	-21.9%	-7.2%
GM	$4,982		$5,306	$4,533	-6.1%	9.9%
Honda	$2,193		$2,715	$2,365	-19.3%	-7.3%
Hyundai	$2,266		$2,204	$2,268	2.8%	-0.1%
Kia	$2,454		$3,863	$2,677	-36.5%	-8.3%
Nissan	$3,514		$4,697	$3,758	-25.2%	-6.5%
Stellantis	$4,345		$4,956	$4,628	-12.3%	-6.1%
Subaru	$1,273		$1,607	$1,321	-20.8%	-3.6%
Toyota	$2,625		$2,659	$2,548	-1.3%	3.0%
Volkswagen Group	$4,100		$4,502	$3,714	-8.9%	10.4%
Manufacturer	Mar 2021 Forecast		Mar 2020 Actual	Feb 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM

Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price (ATP)

Manufacturer		Mar 2021 Forecast	Mar 2020 Actual	Feb 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	7.9%		10.5%	8.6%	-24.6%	-8.3%
Daimler	6.1%		9.6%	6.4%	-36.1%	-3.7%
Ford	7.1%		9.4%	7.7%	-24.5%	-7.5%
GM	11.9%		13.0%	10.9%	-8.7%	8.7%
Honda	6.9%		9.1%	7.4%	-24.8%	-7.2%
Hyundai	7.5%		7.8%	7.4%	-3.7%	0.7%
Kia	8.6%		14.7%	9.4%	-41.5%	-8.7%
Nissan	11.9%		16.8%	12.8%	-29.2%	-6.9%
Stellantis	10.1%		12.1%	10.8%	-16.9%	-6.9%
Subaru	4.2%		5.3%	4.3%	-20.9%	-3.3%
Toyota	7.6%		8.0%	7.3%	-4.9%	3.8%
Volkswagen Group	9.2%		11.0%	8.5%	-16.1%	8.4%
Industry	8.9%		11.1%	9.1%	-19.4%	-1.7%

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer	Q1 2021	Q1 2020	Q4 2020	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	QoQ % Change	QoQ % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	76,519	64,692	107,299	18.3%	21.5%	-28.7%	-23.9%
Daimler	67,370	68,770	94,098	-2.0%	0.6%	-28.4%	-23.6%
Ford	503,159	514,614	538,643	-2.2%	0.4%	-6.6%	-0.3%
GM	626,335	616,432	767,444	1.6%	4.4%	-18.4%	-12.9%
Honda	338,615	298,784	366,068	13.3%	16.4%	-7.5%	-1.2%
Hyundai	165,313	134,830	183,943	22.6%	25.9%	-10.1%	-4.1%
Kia	150,935	137,945	157,755	9.4%	12.4%	-4.3%	2.1%
Nissan	263,116	257,606	243,133	2.1%	4.9%	8.2%	15.5%
Stellantis	451,749	448,798	495,180	0.7%	3.4%	-8.8%	-2.6%
Subaru	157,977	130,591	175,382	21.0%	24.2%	-9.9%	-3.8%
Tesla	70,763	56,200	68,200	25.9%	29.3%	3.8%	10.8%
Toyota	584,150	495,578	660,715	17.9%	21.1%	-11.6%	-5.6%
Volkswagen Group	148,135	129,072	172,464	14.8%	17.9%	-14.1%	-8.3%
Industry	3,766,406	3,506,683	4,196,656	7.4%	10.3%	-10.3%	-4.2%

Retail Unit Sales, Quarterly

Manufacturer	Q1 2021	Q1 2020	Q4 2020	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	QoQ % Change	QoQ % Change  (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	75,176	58,447	102,914	28.6%	32.1%	-27.0%	-22.0%
Daimler	65,992	64,364	89,982	2.5%	5.3%	-26.7%	-21.7%
Ford	383,448	339,544	435,547	12.9%	16.0%	-12.0%	-6.0%
GM	532,622	453,338	664,280	17.5%	20.7%	-19.8%	-14.4%
Honda	337,202	295,359	363,713	14.2%	17.3%	-7.3%	-1.0%
Hyundai	151,012	109,842	161,936	37.5%	41.2%	-6.7%	-0.4%
Kia	133,035	116,219	146,962	14.5%	17.6%	-9.5%	-3.4%
Nissan	185,337	176,354	202,259	5.1%	7.9%	-8.4%	-2.2%
Stellantis	380,172	318,416	426,872	19.4%	22.6%	-10.9%	-4.9%
Subaru	152,088	122,904	172,045	23.7%	27.1%	-11.6%	-5.6%
Tesla	70,739	55,752	67,774	26.9%	30.3%	4.4%	11.4%
Toyota	508,512	417,544	604,441	21.8%	25.1%	-15.9%	-10.2%
Volkswagen Group	145,914	114,415	155,509	27.5%	31.0%	-6.2%	0.2%
Industry	3,249,708	2,756,031	3,736,505	17.9%	21.1%	-13.0%	-7.2%

Total Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer	Q1 2021	Q1 2020	Q4 2020
BMW	2.0%	1.8%	2.6%
Daimler	1.8%	2.0%	2.2%
Ford	13.4%	14.7%	12.8%
GM	16.6%	17.6%	18.3%
Honda	9.0%	8.5%	8.7%
Hyundai	4.4%	3.8%	4.4%
Kia	4.0%	3.9%	3.8%
Nissan	7.0%	7.3%	5.8%
Stellantis	12.0%	12.8%	11.8%
Subaru	4.2%	3.7%	4.2%
Tesla	1.9%	1.6%	1.6%
Toyota	15.5%	14.1%	15.7%
Volkswagen Group	3.9%	3.7%	4.1%

Retail Market Share, Quarterly

Manufacturer	Q1 2021	Q1 2020	Q4 2020
BMW	2.3%	2.1%	2.8%
Daimler	2.0%	2.3%	2.4%
Ford	11.8%	12.3%	11.7%
GM	16.4%	16.4%	17.8%
Honda	10.4%	10.7%	9.7%
Hyundai	4.6%	4.0%	4.3%
Kia	4.1%	4.2%	3.9%
Nissan	5.7%	6.4%	5.4%
Stellantis	11.7%	11.6%	11.4%
Subaru	4.7%	4.5%	4.6%
Tesla	2.2%	2.0%	1.8%
Toyota	15.6%	15.2%	16.2%
Volkswagen Group	4.5%	4.2%	4.2%

Average Transaction Price (ATP) , Quarterly

Manufacturer	Q1 2021	Q1 2020	Q4 2020	YoY % Change		QoQ % Change
BMW	$60,226	$58,116	$59,855	3.6%		0.6%
Daimler	$62,185	$60,718	$59,049	2.4%		5.3%
Stellantis	$44,040	$42,568	$43,839	3.5%		0.5%
Ford	$41,752	$40,011	$43,725	4.4%		-4.5%
GM	$31,707	$29,423	$38,035	7.8%		-16.6%
Honda	$30,566	$28,733	$30,683	6.4%		-0.4%
Hyundai	$28,472	$25,970	$28,595	9.6%		-0.4%
Kia	$29,414	$28,621	$28,790	2.8%		2.2%
Nissan	$42,874	$40,440	$35,349	6.0%		21.3%
Subaru	$30,489	$30,100	$30,583	1.3%		-0.3%
Toyota	$34,850	$33,415	$35,330	4.3%		-1.4%
Volkswagen Group	$43,931	$40,633	$42,788	8.1%		2.7%
Industry	$37,631	$35,910	$38,224	4.8%		-1.6%

Incentives, Quarterly

Manufacturer	Q1 2021	Q1 2020	Q4 2020	YoY % Change		QoQ % Change
BMW	$5,058	$5,943	$5,409	-14.9%		-6.5%
Daimler	$4,015	$6,114	$4,795	-34.3%		-16.3%
Stellantis	$3,562	$4,696	$4,661	-24.2%		-23.6%
Ford	$4,818	$5,587	$4,631	-13.8%		4.0%
GM	$2,296	$2,586	$4,102	-11.2%		-44.0%
Honda	$2,342	$2,863	$2,548	-18.2%		-8.1%
Hyundai	$2,671	$3,730	$2,705	-28.4%		-1.2%
Kia	$3,854	$4,766	$3,896	-19.1%		-1.1%
Nissan	$4,519	$5,037	$4,671	-10.3%		-3.3%
Subaru	$1,349	$1,335	$1,575	1.1%		-14.3%
Toyota	$2,596	$2,661	$2,714	-2.4%		-4.3%
Volkswagen Group	$3,981	$4,443	$4,300	-10.4%		-7.4%
Industry	$3,490	$4,130	$3,912	-15.5%		-10.8%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas, and Boston, Massachusetts.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. 

 

View original content to download multimedia:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/truecar-forecasts-total-new-vehicle-sales-up-42-year-over-year-for-march-2021-in-first-year-over-year-compare-since-covid-19-impact-on-industry-301255643.html

SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.

FAQ

What are TrueCar's March 2021 vehicle sales forecasts?

TrueCar forecasts total new vehicle sales of 1,460,820 units for March 2021, a 42% increase compared to last year.

How much are retail deliveries expected to increase in March 2021?

Retail deliveries are expected to reach 1,260,416 units, reflecting a 53% year-over-year increase.

What is the projected average transaction price for March 2021?

The average transaction price is expected to rise by 3.3% compared to March 2020.

What challenges are affecting vehicle supply in March 2021?

Production issues, particularly microchip shortages, are causing constraints on vehicle supply.

What is the estimated seasonally adjusted annualized rate for vehicle sales?

The estimated seasonally adjusted annualized rate for total light vehicle sales is projected at 16.4 million units.