TrueCar Forecasts Total New Vehicle Sales up 36% for May 2021

Rhea-AI Summary

TrueCar forecasts total new vehicle sales for May 2021 at 1,509,221 units, marking a 36% increase year-over-year and stable compared to April 2021. The projected seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is 16.2 million, up from 12.1 million a year prior. Retail deliveries are expected to reach 1,379,623 units, a 35% rise year-over-year. Despite challenges such as the global microchip shortage, demand remains strong. Incentive spending is anticipated to be below $3,000, down nearly 30% compared to last year.

Positive

• Total new vehicle sales forecasted at 1,509,221 units for May 2021, a 36% increase YoY.
• SAAR expected to rise to 16.2 million units, from 12.1 million in May 2020.
• Retail deliveries projected at 1,379,623 units, up 35% YoY.
• Average transaction price expected to increase by 3% YoY.

Negative

• Global microchip shortage exerting pressure on vehicle production.
• Average incentive spend decreasing nearly 30% from last year, indicating potential pricing challenges.

SANTA MONICA, Calif., May 25, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the most efficient and transparent online destination to find a car, forecasts total new vehicle sales will reach 1,509,221 units in May 2021, up 36% from a year ago and even with April 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.2 million, bouncing back from 12.1 million SAAR in May 2020. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,379,623 units, an increase of 35% from a year ago and an increase of 2% from April 2021, when adjusted for the same number of selling days.

"May of last year was heavily impacted by the pandemic and doesn't provide a great compare.  However, compared to May 2019 we expect retail sales to be up 9%.  The global microchip shortage is putting pressure on the industry but we are seeing overwhelming demand continue to support historically strong retail sales," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar.

"Vehicles are turning quickly, almost 4 weeks faster than what we saw during this period in 2019.  It is a seller's market and consumers who find a vehicle they like will need to move quickly or risk losing out," added Woolard.

"May kicks off the summer sales period and this month we expect average incentive spend to be below $3,000.  This is down nearly 30% from last year with all major manufacturers showing declines," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar. "With continued constraint on vehicle production, we expect incentives to remain low, at least throughout the summer."

Additional Insights (forecast by TrueCar):

• Total retail sales for May 2021 are expected to be up 35% from a year ago and up 2% from April 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Fleet sales for May 2021 are expected to be up 47% from a year ago and down 18% from April 2021 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
• Incentive spend is down 29% from last year.
• Average transaction price is projected to be up 3% from a year ago and up 1% from April 2021.
• Total SAAR is expected to increase 34% from a year ago from 12.1 million units to 16.2 million units.
• Used vehicle sales for May 2021 are expected to reach 4.0 million, up 13% from a year ago and up 4% from April 2021.
• The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.6% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 7.6%.
• The average loan term on a new vehicle for April 2021 is 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is 69 months.

May 2021 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume.
For additional data, visit the TrueCar Newsroom.

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer	May 2021 Forecast	May 2020 Actual	Apr 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	37,023	20,052	32,161	84.6%	84.6%	15.1%	15.1%
Daimler	25,719	20,958	24,754	22.7%	22.7%	3.9%	3.9%
Ford	164,142	154,775	197,063	6.1%	6.1%	-16.7%	-16.7%
GM	210,603	175,921	238,819	19.7%	19.7%	-11.8%	-11.8%
Honda	183,278	120,977	156,482	51.5%	51.5%	17.1%	17.1%
Hyundai	86,820	58,969	80,817	47.2%	47.2%	7.4%	7.4%
Kia	65,989	45,817	70,177	44.0%	44.0%	-6.0%	-6.0%
Nissan	102,905	65,349	99,132	57.5%	57.5%	3.8%	3.8%
Stellantis	162,221	137,119	166,012	18.3%	18.3%	-2.3%	-2.3%
Subaru	68,293	51,988	61,389	31.4%	31.4%	11.2%	11.2%
Tesla	20,149	8,150	16,600	147.2%	147.2%	21.4%	21.4%
Toyota	239,453	163,421	238,089	46.5%	46.5%	0.6%	0.6%
Volkswagen Group	66,753	42,205	71,336	58.2%	58.2%	-6.4%	-6.4%
Industry	1,509,221	1,111,723	1,512,158	35.8%	35.8%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer	May 2021 Forecast	May 2020 Actual	Apr 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	36,213	19,689	31,611	83.9%	83.9%	14.6%	14.6%
Daimler	24,737	19,853	24,248	24.6%	24.6%	2.0%	2.0%
Ford	123,413	125,247	160,388	-1.5%	-1.5%	-23.1%	-23.1%
GM	184,386	156,023	207,913	18.2%	18.2%	-11.3%	-11.3%
Honda	181,267	120,034	155,826	51.0%	51.0%	16.3%	16.3%
Hyundai	84,470	57,629	78,433	46.6%	46.6%	7.7%	7.7%
Kia	65,085	44,651	67,566	45.8%	45.8%	-3.7%	-3.7%
Nissan	88,843	55,516	81,802	60.0%	60.0%	8.6%	8.6%
Stellantis	146,743	124,778	138,424	17.6%	17.6%	6.0%	6.0%
Subaru	66,622	50,496	59,100	31.9%	31.9%	12.7%	12.7%
Tesla	19,970	8,150	16,594	145.0%	145.0%	20.3%	20.3%
Toyota	224,127	157,125	209,846	42.6%	42.6%	6.8%	6.8%
Volkswagen Group	65,548	41,808	70,285	56.8%	56.8%	-6.7%	-6.7%
Industry	1,379,623	1,023,799	1,353,206	34.8%	34.8%	2.0%	2.0%
Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer	May 2021 Forecast	May 2020 Actual	Apr 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate)	MoM % Change	MoM % Change      (Daily Selling Rate)
BMW	810	363	550	123.2%	123.2%	47.2%	47.2%
Daimler	982	1,105	506	-11.1%	-11.1%	94.0%	94.0%
Ford	40,729	29,528	36,675	37.9%	37.9%	11.1%	11.1%
GM	26,217	19,898	30,906	31.8%	31.8%	-15.2%	-15.2%
Honda	2,011	943	656	113.3%	113.3%	206.4%	206.4%
Hyundai	2,350	1,340	2,384	75.4%	75.4%	-1.4%	-1.4%
Kia	904	1,166	2,611	-22.5%	-22.5%	-65.4%	-65.4%
Nissan	14,062	9,833	17,330	43.0%	43.0%	-18.9%	-18.9%
Stellantis	15,478	12,341	27,588	25.4%	25.4%	-43.9%	-43.9%
Subaru	1,672	1,492	2,289	12.0%	12.0%	-27.0%	-27.0%
Tesla	179	-	6			3062.3%	3062.3%
Toyota	15,326	6,296	28,243	143.4%	143.4%	-45.7%	-45.7%
Volkswagen Group	1,205	397	1,051	203.5%	203.5%	14.6%	14.6%
Industry	129,598	87,924	158,952	47.4%	47.4%	-18.5%	-18.5%
Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer	May 2021 Forecast	May 2020 Actual	Apr 2021 Actual	YoY % Change	MoM % Change
BMW	2.2%	1.8%	1.7%	20.9%	27.8%
Daimler	3.8%	5.3%	2.0%	-27.6%	86.7%
Ford	24.8%	19.1%	18.6%	30.1%	33.3%
GM	12.4%	11.3%	12.9%	10.1%	-3.8%
Honda	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%	40.8%	161.6%
Hyundai	2.7%	2.3%	3.0%	19.1%	-8.3%
Kia	1.4%	2.5%	3.7%	-46.2%	-63.2%
Nissan	13.7%	15.0%	17.5%	-9.2%	-21.8%
Stellantis	9.5%	9.0%	16.6%	6.0%	-42.6%
Subaru	2.4%	2.9%	3.7%	-14.7%	-34.3%
Tesla	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%		2505.4%
Toyota	6.4%	3.9%	11.9%	66.1%	-46.0%
Volkswagen Group	1.8%	0.9%	1.5%	91.9%	22.5%
Industry	8.6%	7.9%	10.5%	8.6%	-18.3%
Total Market Share
Manufacturer	May 2021 Forecast	May 2020 Actual	Apr 2021 Actual
BMW	2.5%	1.8%	2.1%
Daimler	1.7%	1.9%	1.6%
Ford	10.9%	13.9%	13.0%
GM	14.0%	15.8%	15.8%
Honda	12.1%	10.9%	10.3%
Hyundai	5.8%	5.3%	5.3%
Kia	4.4%	4.1%	4.6%
Nissan	6.8%	5.9%	6.6%
Stellantis	10.7%	12.3%	11.0%
Subaru	4.5%	4.7%	4.1%
Tesla	1.3%	0.7%	1.1%
Toyota	15.9%	14.7%	15.7%
Volkswagen Group	4.4%	3.8%	4.7%
	95.0%	95.9%	96.1%
Retail Market Share
Manufacturer	May 2021 Forecast	May 2020 Actual	Apr 2021 Actual
BMW	2.6%	1.9%	2.3%
Daimler	1.8%	1.9%	1.8%
Ford	8.9%	12.2%	11.9%
GM	13.4%	15.2%	15.4%
Honda	13.1%	11.7%	11.5%
Hyundai	6.1%	5.6%	5.8%
Kia	4.7%	4.4%	5.0%
Nissan	6.4%	5.4%	6.0%
Stellantis	10.6%	12.2%	10.2%
Subaru	4.8%	4.9%	4.4%
Tesla	1.4%	0.8%	1.2%
Toyota	16.2%	15.3%	15.5%
Volkswagen Group	4.8%	4.1%	5.2%
	95.1%	95.8%	96.2%
ATP
Manufacturer	May 2021 Forecast	May 2020 Actual	Apr 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$59,429	$60,467	$59,432	-1.7%	0.0%
Daimler	$61,377	$59,893	$61,105	2.5%	0.4%
Ford	$41,620	$43,531	$43,436	-4.4%	-4.2%
GM	$43,691	$39,899	$42,478	9.5%	2.9%
Honda	$31,597	$30,012	$31,564	5.3%	0.1%
Hyundai	$30,163	$28,606	$28,905	5.4%	4.4%
Kia	$28,592	$24,935	$28,244	14.7%	1.2%
Nissan	$30,822	$28,737	$30,211	7.3%	2.0%
Stellantis	$45,357	$42,013	$44,265	8.0%	2.5%
Subaru	$30,192	$30,532	$30,381	-1.1%	-0.6%
Toyota	$35,396	$34,626	$34,887	2.2%	1.5%
Volkswagen Group	$45,483	$41,572	$45,028	9.4%	1.0%
Industry	$37,584	$36,464	$37,350	3.1%	0.6%
	$1,119.2		$233
Incentives
Manufacturer	May 2021 Forecast	May 2020 Actual	Apr 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	$4,498	$6,272	$4,872	-28.3%	-7.7%
Daimler	$4,280	$6,822	$3,799	-37.3%	12.7%
Ford	$2,691	$4,426	$2,938	-39.2%	-8.4%
GM	$4,489	$5,815	$4,641	-22.8%	-3.3%
Honda	$2,064	$2,879	$2,285	-28.3%	-9.7%
Hyundai	$2,233	$2,663	$2,440	-16.2%	-8.5%
Kia	$2,425	$3,786	$2,570	-35.9%	-5.6%
Nissan	$3,514	$4,735	$3,781	-25.8%	-7.1%
Stellantis	$3,413	$5,410	$3,841	-36.9%	-11.2%
Subaru	$1,133	$1,745	$1,328	-35.1%	-14.7%
Toyota	$2,386	$2,836	$2,516	-15.9%	-5.2%
Volkswagen Group	$3,342	$4,491	$3,924	-25.6%	-14.8%
Industry	$2,959	$4,174	$3,234	-29.1%	-8.5%
	-$1,215		-$274
Incentives as % of ATP
Manufacturer	May 2021 Forecast	May 2020 Actual	Apr 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
BMW	7.6%	10.4%	8.2%	-27.0%	-7.7%
Daimler	7.0%	11.4%	6.2%	-38.8%	12.2%
Ford	6.5%	10.2%	6.8%	-36.4%	-4.4%
GM	10.3%	14.6%	10.9%	-29.5%	-6.0%
Honda	6.5%	9.6%	7.2%	-31.9%	-9.8%
Hyundai	7.4%	9.3%	8.4%	-20.5%	-12.3%
Kia	8.5%	15.2%	9.1%	-44.1%	-6.8%
Nissan	11.4%	16.5%	12.5%	-30.8%	-8.9%
Stellantis	7.5%	12.9%	8.7%	-41.6%	-13.3%
Subaru	3.8%	5.7%	4.4%	-34.3%	-14.1%
Toyota	6.7%	8.2%	7.2%	-17.7%	-6.6%
Volkswagen Group	7.3%	10.8%	8.7%	-32.0%	-15.7%
Industry	7.9%	11.4%	8.7%	-31.2%	-9.1%
Revenue
Manufacturer	May 2021 Forecast	May 2020 Actual	Apr 2021 Actual	YOY	MOM
Industry	$56,721,972,825	$40,538,287,402	$56,479,277,907	39.9%	0.4%

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com   

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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.

FAQ

What are TrueCar's May 2021 vehicle sales forecasts?

TrueCar forecasts total new vehicle sales at 1,509,221 units for May 2021, a 36% increase from last year.

How does the SAAR for May 2021 compare to previous years?

The SAAR for May 2021 is projected at 16.2 million, up from 12.1 million in May 2020.

What are the expected retail vehicle delivery numbers for May 2021 from TrueCar?

TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new vehicles to reach 1,379,623 units in May 2021, up 35% YoY.

How much are incentives expected to decline in May 2021?

Incentive spending in May 2021 is anticipated to be below $3,000, down nearly 30% from last year.