State Street Global Advisors’ 2025 Global Market Outlook: Finding the Right Path
State Street Global Advisors has released its 2025 Global Market Outlook, projecting continued rate cuts and macroeconomic resilience. The firm expects a US soft landing scenario to materialize, following strong equity market returns and modest fixed income performance in 2024.
The outlook anticipates ongoing rate cuts in 2025, though the Trump-led Republican victory could affect the narrative. The firm maintains a favorable outlook for fixed income, expecting slowing economic output and controlled inflation to enable further central bank policy rate cuts.
For equities, the US market shows strong earnings support, while international markets present a mixed picture. Japanese equities are expected to move sideways, and Chinese equities may face challenges despite stimulus measures. The report also highlights the emerging significance of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region as an investment destination.
State Street Global Advisors ha pubblicato le sue previsioni sui mercati globali per il 2025, prevedendo ulteriori tagli ai tassi e una resilienza macroeconomica. L'azienda si aspetta che si realizzi uno scenario di atterraggio morbido negli Stati Uniti, dopo forti rendimenti del mercato azionario e una performance moderata del reddito fisso nel 2024.
Le previsioni anticipano continuazione dei tagli ai tassi nel 2025, anche se la vittoria repubblicana guidata da Trump potrebbe influenzare la narrazione. L'azienda mantiene un ottimismo sui redditi fissi, prevedendo una decelerazione della produzione economica e un'inflazione controllata che consentirebbero ulteriori tagli ai tassi nell'ambito delle politiche delle banche centrali.
Per quanto riguarda le azioni, il mercato statunitense mostra un forte supporto agli utili, mentre i mercati internazionali presentano un quadro misto. Le azioni giapponesi si prevede rimangano laterali, mentre quelle cinesi potrebbero affrontare delle difficoltà nonostante le misure di stimolo. Il rapporto evidenzia anche l'importanza crescente della regione Consiglio di cooperazione del Golfo (GCC) come meta di investimento.
State Street Global Advisors ha lanzado su Perspectiva Global de Mercados 2025, proyectando recortes continuos en las tasas y resiliencia macroeconómica. La firma anticipa que se materializará un escenario de aterrizaje suave en EE. UU., tras fuertes rendimientos del mercado de acciones y un desempeño moderado de la renta fija en 2024.
La perspectiva prevé recortes en las tasas durante 2025, aunque la victoria republicana liderada por Trump podría afectar la narrativa. La firma mantiene una perspectiva favorable para la renta fija, esperando que la desaceleración de la producción económica y la inflación controlada permitan más recortes en las tasas de política del banco central.
En cuanto a las acciones, el mercado estadounidense muestra un fuerte apoyo a las ganancias, mientras que los mercados internacionales presentan un panorama mixto. Se espera que las acciones japonesas se muevan lateralmente, y las acciones chinas podrían enfrentar desafíos a pesar de las medidas de estímulo. El informe también destaca la creciente importancia de la región del Consejo de Cooperación del Golfo (CCG) como destino de inversión.
State Street Global Advisors는 2025년도 글로벌 시장 전망을 발표하며 지속적인 금리 인하와 거시 경제 회복력을 예상하고 있습니다. 이 회사는 2024년에 강력한 주식 시장 수익률과 미미한 고정 수익 성과가 이어진 뒤 미국의 부드러운 착륙 시나리오가 실현될 것으로 보았습니다.
2025년에도 계속해서 금리 인하가 이루어질 것이라 예상하고 있지만, 트럼프가 이끄는 공화당의 승리가 상황에 영향을 미칠 수 있습니다. 이 회사는 고정 수익에 대한 긍정적인 전망을 유지하며, 경제 성장 둔화와 통제된 인플레이션이 중앙은행의 정책 금리 인하를 가능하게 할 것이라고 전망하고 있습니다.
주식의 경우, 미국 시장은 강력한 수익 지원을 보여주고 있으며, 국제 시장은 혼합된 모습을 보이고 있습니다. 일본 주식은 가로세로 흐를 것으로 예상되며, 중국 주식은 자극 조치에도 불구하고 어려움에 직면할 수 있습니다. 이 보고서는 또한 걸프 협력 협의회 (GCC) 지역의 투자 목적지로서의 중요성이 커지고 있음을 강조하고 있습니다.
State Street Global Advisors a publié ses perspectives de marché mondial pour 2025, prévoyant des baisses de taux continues et une résilience macroéconomique. La société s'attend à ce qu'un scénario d'atterrissage doux aux États-Unis se concrétise, après de forts rendements du marché boursier et des performances modestes des revenus fixes en 2024.
Les prévisions anticipent des baisses de taux continues en 2025, bien que la victoire républicaine dirigée par Trump puisse influencer le récit. L'entreprise maintient une perspective favorable pour les revenus fixes, s'attendant à ce qu'un ralentissement de la production économique et une inflation maîtrisée permettent d'autres baisses de taux de la part des banques centrales.
Pour les actions, le marché américain montre un fort soutien aux bénéfices, tandis que les marchés internationaux présentent un tableau mixte. Les actions japonaises devraient évoluer latéralement, et les actions chinoises pourraient faire face à des défis malgré les mesures de relance. Le rapport souligne également l'importance croissante de la région du Conseil de coopération du Golfe (CCG) en tant que destination d'investissement.
State Street Global Advisors hat seinen Global Market Outlook für 2025 veröffentlicht und prognostiziert weiterhin Zinssenkungen und makroökonomische Resilienz. Das Unternehmen erwartet, dass ein sanftes Landen der US-Wirtschaft erfolgt, nach starken Aktienmarktrenditen und moderaten Leistungen bei festverzinslichen Anlagen im Jahr 2024.
Die Prognose sieht fortlaufende Zinssenkungen im Jahr 2025 vor, obwohl der von Trump geführte republikanische Sieg die Erzählung beeinflussen könnte. Das Unternehmen behält einen positiven Ausblick für festverzinsliche Anlagen, da eine verlangsame Wirtschaftsleistung und kontrollierte Inflation weitere Zinssenkungen der Zentralbank ermöglichen sollten.
Was die Aktien betrifft, zeigt der US-Markt starke Ertragsunterstützung, während internationale Märkte ein gemischtes Bild bieten. Japanische Aktien werden voraussichtlich seitwärts tendieren, und chinesische Aktien könnten trotz Stimulusmaßnahmen vor Herausforderungen stehen. Der Bericht hebt auch die aufkommende Bedeutung der Region Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) als Investitionsziel hervor.
- Anticipated continuation of rate cuts supporting market conditions
- Expected US soft landing scenario materializing
- Favorable outlook for fixed income assets
- Strong earnings support for US equities
- Potential policy uncertainty due to Trump administration
- Expected volatility in Japanese equities
- Challenges for Chinese equities despite stimulus
- Geopolitical risks affecting market stability
Insights
The 2025 outlook from State Street Global Advisors presents a cautiously optimistic view with several key investment implications. The forecast of continued rate cuts and a US soft landing suggests a supportive environment for both equities and fixed income. The outlook highlights tactical opportunities in duration positioning and a favorable view on US large-cap equities, which maintain structural advantages over other developed markets.
Notable is the emphasis on the GCC region as an emerging investment destination, driven by Vision plans and increasing index inclusion. This geographic diversification opportunity comes amid expectations of market volatility and geopolitical risks. The firm's positioning above target allocations to equities while maintaining thoughtful portfolio construction reflects a balanced approach to risk management in an environment of expected policy shifts.
The outlook's focus on transformative technologies and structural shifts signals important long-term investment considerations. The emphasis on generative AI and tokenization as disruptive forces suggests potential investment opportunities in technology-driven sectors. The report's nuanced view of regional markets, particularly the cautious stance on Japanese equities and Chinese markets, reflects broader concerns about global economic divergence.
The anticipated impact of a potential Trump administration on monetary policy adds a layer of uncertainty to the rate cut trajectory, which could create market volatility and trading opportunities. The analysis of fixed income markets, with spreads at historic lows, suggests careful timing will be important for investors adjusting their duration exposure.
Against the background of a resilient economic environment and major central banks embarking on an easing cycle in 2024, equity markets delivered strong returns, while fixed income markets saw modest returns. Looking ahead, State Street Global Advisors expects rate cuts and macroeconomic resilience to continue in 2025, and its long-standing forecast of a US soft landing to materialize.
Lori Heinel, Global Chief Investment Officer, commented: “2024 was no ordinary year, with elections around the world, persistent inflation and market volatility all playing their part in building an uncertain macroeconomic environment. Despite these challenges, markets continued to be resilient. As we enter 2025, we remain cautiously optimistic, with expectations of a soft-landing in the US looking set to translate into reality. While there are a range of uncertainties to contend with, investors may want to consider above target allocations to equities and should remain thoughtful about portfolio construction.”
State Street Global Advisors believes that the rate cut cycle that started in 2024 will continue for a while longer, although the Trump-led Republican US election victory could result in a change to the narrative in the latter part of 2025. Global geopolitical forces could also play their part in rupturing long-standing economic and financial ties.
State Street Global Advisors retains its favorable outlook for fixed income in 2025. It anticipates that slowing economic output and tame inflation will allow central banks to cut policy rates further, even though the pace and scale may be more uncertain with a Trump administration. This uncertainty may offer investors tactical opportunities to build or expand their duration positioning through the easing cycle.
Jennifer Bender, Global Chief Investment Strategist, said: “While spreads across both investment grade credit and high yield debt are near historic lows, we are optimistic about prospects for fixed income assets next year, and see a generally favourable environment for advanced economy sovereign debt. Market sentiment swings and volatility could potentially create opportunities for investors to manage or extend duration.”
Within global equity markets, the resilient economic backdrop provides support for earnings, particularly in the US. Outside the US, the picture is more nuanced but there are pockets of opportunities across markets. Investors will also need to navigate both short-term uncertainties as well as deeper structural shifts such as demographic changes, geoeconomic fragmentation, and the rise of transformative technologies.
Bender continued: “We expect Japanese equities to move sideways due to potential volatility, while Chinese equities may struggle in sustaining higher growth and strong performance despite the short-term relief from the country’s stimulus program. At the same time, we believe US large cap equity will maintain its structural advantage to the rest of developed markets and see the outlook for emerging markets as more nuanced as investors balance economic and earnings growth, and easing inflationary pressures versus geopolitical risk and a strong US dollar.”
Aside from the outlook for different asset classes, the firm also highlights important considerations in portfolio construction, the emergence of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region as an investment location worth greater consideration, and the disruptive power of transformative technologies such as generative AI and tokenizaton.
Heinel, added: “The GCC region is undergoing significant transformation driven by its Vision plans, which increases its appeal for both domestic and international investors and is reflected in the performance of the equity and bond markets. From the inclusion of GCC countries in global indices, to the region’s substantial fixed income issuance, the GCC region offers significant growth potential for investors seeking to build a forward-looking portfolio. In addition, we believe investors should look beyond the traditional balanced (“60/40”) portfolio and evaluate alternative exposures from a diversification, risk mitigation and alpha generation perspective. Allocations to real assets, commodities, infrastructure, digital assets and private assets could potentially offer higher returns, lower volatility and enhanced diversification.”
About State Street Global Advisors
For over four decades, State Street Global Advisors has served the world’s governments, institutions, and financial advisors. With a rigorous, risk-aware approach built on research, analysis, and market-tested experience, and as pioneers in index and ETF investing, we are always inventing new ways to invest. As a result, we have become the world’s fourth-largest asset manager* with US
*Pensions & Investments Research Center, as of 12/31/23.
†This figure is presented as of September 30, 2024 and includes ETF AUM of
7395469.1.1.GBL.RTL
Expiration Date: Dec 31, 2025
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241204758751/en/
Michel Chau
+44 7500 682982
mchau@statestreet.com
Source: State Street Corporation
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