S&P Global Mobility: January 2025 US auto sales begin year on positive note

Rhea-AI Summary

S&P Global Mobility forecasts January 2025 U.S. auto sales to reach 1.15 million units, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.2 million units. While this represents a slight decrease from December 2024's pace, it marks the fourth consecutive month above the 16-million mark.

The January sales slowdown is attributed to December 2024's strong closeout and adverse weather conditions. Inventory levels are lower entering 2025, with retail advertised inventory at 2.89 million vehicles by December 2024's end, the lowest since July 2024. Light truck SAAR is projected at 13.1 million units, while passenger car SAAR is expected at 3.1 million units.

Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) share is anticipated to maintain at 9.0% in January, as stakeholders evaluate potential changes to BEV incentives. The industry faces an uncertain demand environment in 2025 due to potential policy changes from the new administration.

Positive

• Auto sales SAAR maintaining above 16-million mark for fourth consecutive month
• Year-over-year increase in total light vehicle sales from 1.07M to 1.15M units
• Stable BEV market share at 9.0%

Negative

• Decline in SAAR from December's 16.8M to January's 16.2M
• Inventory levels at lowest point since July 2024
• Uncertain demand environment due to potential policy changes

Insights

Market Research Analyst

The January 2025 auto sales data reveals several important market dynamics that warrant attention. The projected 16.2 million SAAR represents a 8% improvement over January 2024's 15.0 million pace, signaling sustained market strength despite seasonal headwinds.

The inventory situation presents a particularly interesting narrative. The reduction to 2.89 million vehicles - the lowest since July 2024 - suggests improved inventory management but could impact dealer margins and pricing power. This lean inventory position, combined with steady sales, indicates healthy demand-supply dynamics that could support profitable operations across the automotive value chain.

The BEV market share maintaining 9% penetration is noteworthy, especially given the uncertain regulatory environment. This stability suggests a maturing market segment less dependent on incentives, though potential policy changes from the new administration could reshape adoption patterns.

The light truck segment continues to dominate with a 13.1 million SAAR, representing about 81% of total sales. This mix heavily favors higher-margin vehicles, which has positive implications for manufacturer profitability and S&P Global's automotive data services revenue stream.

These metrics collectively suggest a resilient auto market that's successfully navigating seasonal patterns and policy uncertainties, while maintaining profitable operations - a positive indicator for S&P Global's automotive intelligence business segment.

January 2025 auto sales are expected to decelerate from the quickening realized in December, but sustain some of the Q4 2024 progress

SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Jan. 28, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- January U.S. auto sales are estimated to hit 1.15 million units, translating to an estimated sales pace of 16.2 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), according to S&P Global Mobility. The SAAR pace would be a mild step down from the relatively strong November and December 2024 readings but would be the fourth consecutive month this metric has been above the 16-million mark. Contributors to the chill of the January sales pace include an expected hangover from the solid closeout to sales in December 2024, combined with some inclement weather effects in various parts of the country.

An uncertain demand environment awaits in 2025, as the industry digests potential policy changes from new administration

"Auto sales are expected to post a decent volume level in January," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility.  "An uncertain auto demand environment awaits in 2025, as the industry and consumers digest potential policy changes from the new administration, but together with the inventory draw down at the end of 2024, and weather impacts during the month, January sales should be viewed as a positive result."

Inventory levels are also lower entering 2025, following the strong sales close to 2024 and lower production levels that were scheduled in December.

According to S&P Global Mobility Retail Advertised Inventory data, at the end of December 2024, available retail advertised inventory in the US was 2.89 million vehicles, its lowest level since the first week of July 2024.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales
		Jan 25 (Est)	Jan 24	Dec 24
Total Light Vehicle	Units, NSA	1,150,600	1,070,520	1,488,577
	In millions, SAAR	16.2	15.0	16.8
Light Truck	In millions, SAAR	13.1	12.0	13.8
Passenger Car	In millions, SAAR	3.1	3.0	3.0
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast.  In the immediate term, some month-to-month volatility is anticipated. January BEV share is expected to reach 9.0%, similar to the month prior reading, as automakers, dealers and consumers consider the potential changes to BEV incentives to begin the new year.

About S&P Global Mobility

At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.

S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.

Media Contact:

Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com

 

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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility

FAQ

What are S&P Global's (SPGI) projected US auto sales figures for January 2025?

S&P Global Mobility projects January 2025 US auto sales to reach 1.15 million units, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.2 million units.

How does January 2025's projected SAAR compare to previous months?

January 2025's projected 16.2 million SAAR represents a decrease from December 2024's 16.8 million but marks the fourth consecutive month above 16 million units.

What is the current state of US auto inventory levels according to SPGI?

According to S&P Global Mobility, US retail advertised inventory stood at 2.89 million vehicles at the end of December 2024, the lowest level since July 2024.

What is the projected BEV market share for January 2025?

S&P Global Mobility expects the Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) market share to reach 9.0% in January 2025, similar to the previous month.

What factors are affecting January 2025 auto sales according to SPGI?

Key factors include hangover from December 2024's strong sales, inclement weather effects, lower inventory levels, and uncertainty regarding potential policy changes from the new administration.