S&P Global Market Intelligence expects 2024 election outcomes and multidimensional risk factors to define global landscape next year
S&P Global Market Intelligence has released a new report, 'Power Plays in 2025', outlining four key themes that will shape global political and economic relationships in 2025. The report identifies economic angst, domestic discontent, elusive alliances, and trade troubles as major factors affecting markets.
The analysis suggests that while global economic expansion is expected to continue, led by emerging markets, multiple risks including structural challenges and geopolitical issues could impede growth. The report highlights concerns about domestic instability, protectionist measures, and fragmented trade environments that may lead to higher consumer prices and increased inflationary pressures.
S&P Global Market Intelligence ha pubblicato un nuovo rapporto, 'Power Plays in 2025', che delinea quattro temi chiave che plasmeranno le relazioni politiche ed economiche globali nel 2025. Il rapporto identifica ansia economica, scontento interno, alleanze elusive e problemi commerciali come fattori principali che influenzano i mercati.
L'analisi suggerisce che, sebbene ci si aspetti che l'espansione economica globale continui, guidata dai mercati emergenti, molteplici rischi, inclusi problemi strutturali e questioni geopolitiche, potrebbero ostacolare la crescita. Il rapporto evidenzia preoccupazioni riguardo all'instabilità interna, alle misure protezionistiche e agli ambienti commerciali frammentati che potrebbero portare a prezzi al consumo più elevati e a maggiori pressioni inflazionistiche.
S&P Global Market Intelligence ha lanzado un nuevo informe, 'Power Plays in 2025', que describe cuatro temas clave que darán forma a las relaciones políticas y económicas globales en 2025. El informe identifica ansiedad económica, descontento interno, alianzas elusivas y problemas comerciales como factores principales que afectan a los mercados.
El análisis sugiere que, aunque se espera que la expansión económica global continúe, liderada por los mercados emergentes, múltiples riesgos, incluidos desafíos estructurales y problemas geopolíticos, podrían obstaculizar el crecimiento. El informe destaca preocupaciones sobre la inestabilidad interna, las medidas proteccionistas y los entornos comerciales fragmentados que pueden llevar a precios más altos para los consumidores y a una mayor presión inflacionaria.
S&P 글로벌 마켓 인텔리전스는 '2025년의 파워 플레이'라는 새로운 보고서를 발표하였으며, 이 보고서는 2025년에 글로벌 정치 및 경제 관계를 형성할 네 가지 주요 주제를 개략적으로 설명합니다. 보고서는 경제적 불안, 국내 불만, 모호한 동맹, 무역 문제를 시장에 영향을 미치는 주요 요소로 파악하고 있습니다.
분석에 따르면, 글로벌 경제 확장은 신흥 시장에 의해 지속될 것으로 예상되지만, 구조적 도전과 지정학적 문제를 포함한 여러 위험이 성장을 저해할 수 있다고 합니다. 보고서는 국내 불안정성, 보호무역 조치, 단편화된 무역 환경에 대한 우려를 강조하며, 이러한 요인이 소비자 가격 상승과 인플레이션 압력 증가로 이어질 수 있음을 지적합니다.
S&P Global Market Intelligence a publié un nouveau rapport, 'Power Plays in 2025', décrivant quatre thèmes clés qui façonneront les relations politiques et économiques mondiales en 2025. Le rapport identifie angoisse économique, mécontentement domestique, alliances insaisissables et problèmes commerciaux comme des facteurs majeurs influençant les marchés.
L'analyse suggère que bien que l'expansion économique mondiale devrait se poursuivre, menée par les marchés émergents, de multiples risques, y compris des défis structurels et des problèmes géopolitiques, pourraient entraver la croissance. Le rapport souligne des préoccupations concernant l'instabilité intérieure, les mesures protectionnistes et des environnements commerciaux fragmentés qui pourraient entraîner des prix à la consommation plus élevés et une pression inflationniste accrue.
S&P Global Market Intelligence hat einen neuen Bericht mit dem Titel 'Power Plays in 2025' veröffentlicht, der vier zentrale Themen umreißt, die die globalen politischen und wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen im Jahr 2025 prägen werden. Der Bericht identifiziert ökonomische Sorgen, innere Unzufriedenheit, schwierige Allianzen und Handelsprobleme als wesentliche Faktoren, die die Märkte beeinflussen.
Die Analyse legt nahe, dass trotz der erwarteten Fortsetzung des globalen wirtschaftlichen Wachstums, angeführt von Schwellenländern, mehrere Risiken, einschließlich struktureller Herausforderungen und geopolitischer Probleme, das Wachstum behindern könnten. Der Bericht hebt Bedenken hinsichtlich der inneren Instabilität, protektionistischer Maßnahmen und fragmentierter Handelsumgebungen hervor, die zu höheren Verbraucherpreisen und steigenden inflationären Druck führen könnten.
- Expected continued global economic expansion, particularly in emerging markets across Asia Pacific, Latin America and Central Europe
- Multiple structural economic challenges threatening global expansion
- Rising domestic instability across various countries
- Increasing protectionist measures likely to fragment global trade
- Higher consumer prices and inflationary pressures expected
- Supply chain complications due to ongoing global conflicts
Insights
This predictive analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence highlights significant macroeconomic headwinds for 2025 that investors should carefully consider. The convergence of economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism suggests increased market volatility and potential disruptions to global supply chains.
The focus on emerging markets in Asia Pacific, Latin America and Central Europe as growth drivers indicates potential investment opportunities, but these must be weighed against heightened risks from protectionist policies and domestic instability. The predicted continuation of trade restrictions and export controls could particularly impact multinational corporations and sectors heavily dependent on international trade.
The emphasis on domestic discontent and political fragmentation across various regions signals increased policy uncertainty, which typically leads to market volatility and could affect both currency markets and cross-border investments.
The report's emphasis on protectionist measures and fragmented trade environment warrants attention from investors in global markets. These factors typically lead to higher input costs, reduced profit margins and increased operational complexity for multinational companies.
The highlighted domestic instability across various regions suggests potential disruptions to business operations and investment flows. The predicted persistence of geopolitical conflicts, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East, could maintain upward pressure on commodity prices and supply chain costs. The forecast of unstable political coalitions may result in inconsistent policy environments, affecting long-term business planning and investment decisions.
Latent and persistent conflicts, domestic instability, economic rivalries and trade protectionism will continue to shape markets in 2025
"The interplay of geopolitical rivalries, economic shifts and evolving trade relations will define the conflicted global landscape in 2025," said Natznet Tesfay, Head of Insights & Analysis, Global Intelligence and Analytics, S&P Global Market Intelligence. "Trends observed in 2024, such as the reconfiguration of logistics and the ongoing ramifications of conflicts in
S&P Global Market Intelligence identified the defining geopolitical and global macroeconomic themes next year as:
- Economic angst: While S&P Global Market Intelligence expects the global economic expansion to continue, led by emerging markets in
Asia Pacific ,Latin America andCentral Europe , multiple risks—including structural economic challenges and increased uncertainty stemming from geopolitical issues—could derail a global economic expansion. - Domestic discontent: Several countries may struggle to combat growing domestic instability characterized by economic inequality, technological disruptions and political polarization which are eroding traditional social contracts between governments and citizens, leading to increased discontent.
- Elusive alliances: The evolving geopolitical landscape, increasingly characterized by fluid alliances and strategic recalibrations among nations, will continue to drive both collaboration and competition as countries prioritize national security and protectionism.
- Trade troubles: The trend of protectionist measures including the use of tariffs and export restrictions to protect domestic industries is likely to fragment the global trade environment, complicating supply chains and international relations while contributing to higher prices for consumers and exacerbating inflationary pressures.
To request a copy of Power Plays in 2025, please contact press.mi@spglobal.com.
S&P Global Market Intelligence's opinions, quotes, and credit-related and other analyses are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendation to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security.
About S&P Global Market Intelligence
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S&P Global Market Intelligence is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence.
Media Contact
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S&P Global Market Intelligence
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Katherine.smith@spglobal.com or press.mi@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Market Intelligence
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