S&P Global Mobility: July sales to realize bounce from June impacts
S&P Global Mobility projects new light vehicle sales in July 2024 to reach 1.32 million units, up 1% year-over-year. This translates to an estimated sales pace of 16.4 million units (SAAR), the highest since May 2021. The boost is attributed to delayed purchases from June's dealer management software cyberattack.
Despite one less selling day, July sales are expected to match June's. The two-month average SAAR for June-July aligns with April-May levels, indicating mild progression as rising inventory and incentives alleviate affordability concerns. However, mixed signals persist for H2 2024.
Inventory continues to rise, up 1.8% from May and 57% from last June. Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) share is expected to reach 7.8% in July, with further growth anticipated due to new model releases.
S&P Global Mobility prevede che le nuove vendite di veicoli leggeri a luglio 2024 raggiungeranno 1,32 milioni di unità, con un aumento dell'1% rispetto all'anno precedente. Questo corrisponde a un ritmo di vendite stimato di 16,4 milioni di unità (SAAR), il valore più alto da maggio 2021. L'aumento è attribuibile ai rinvii degli acquisti a causa dell'attacco informatico al software di gestione dei concessionari di giugno.
Nonostante un giorno di vendita in meno, si prevede che le vendite di luglio saranno in linea con quelle di giugno. La media SAAR di due mesi per giugno e luglio si allinea ai livelli di aprile e maggio, indicando una lieve progressione grazie all'aumento dell'inventario e degli incentivi che alleviano le preoccupazioni per l'affordabilità. Tuttavia, persistono segnali contrastanti per la seconda metà del 2024.
L'inventario continua a crescere, con un incremento dell'1,8% rispetto a maggio e del 57% rispetto allo scorso giugno. La quota di veicoli elettrici a batteria (BEV) è prevista raggiungere 7,8% a luglio, con ulteriori aumenti attesi grazie al lancio di nuovi modelli.
S&P Global Mobility proyecta que las nuevas ventas de vehículos ligeros en julio de 2024 alcancen 1,32 millones de unidades, lo que representa un aumento del 1% interanual. Esto se traduce en un ritmo de ventas estimado de 16,4 millones de unidades (SAAR), el más alto desde mayo de 2021. Este impulso se atribuye a las compras retrasadas debido al ciberataque al software de gestión de concesionarios de junio.
A pesar de un día de venta menos, se espera que las ventas de julio sean similares a las de junio. El promedio SAAR de dos meses para junio-julio se alinea con los niveles de abril-mayo, lo que indica un leve progreso a medida que aumenta el inventario y los incentivos alivian las preocupaciones de asequibilidad. Sin embargo, persisten señales mixtas para el segundo semestre de 2024.
El inventario sigue aumentando, con un incremento del 1,8% desde mayo y del 57% desde junio del año pasado. Se espera que la cuota de vehículos eléctricos de batería (BEV) alcance 7,8% en julio, anticipándose un crecimiento adicional debido al lanzamiento de nuevos modelos.
S&P Global Mobility는 2024년 7월 새로운 경량차 판매가 132만 대에 이를 것으로 예상하며, 이는 작년 대비 1% 증가한 수치입니다. 이는 1640만 대(SAAR)의 예상 판매 속도에 해당하며, 2021년 5월 이후 가장 높은 수치입니다. 이번 증가의 원인은 6월의 딜러 관리 소프트웨어에 대한 사이버 공격으로 인해 구매가 지연되었기 때문입니다.
판매일이 하루 줄어들었지만, 7월의 판매는 6월과 비슷할 것으로 예상됩니다. 6월과 7월의 두 달 평균 SAAR는 4월과 5월의 수준과 일치하여 재고 증가와 인센티브로 인해 affordability 우려가 완화됨에 따라 미세한 진행 상황을 나타냅니다. 그러나 2024년 하반기에 대한 혼합 신호는 여전히 존재합니다.
재고는 계속 증가하고 있으며, 5월 대비 1.8% 그리고 작년 6월 대비 57% 증가했습니다. 배터리 전기차(BEV) 비율은 7월에 7.8%에 이를 것으로 예상되며, 새로운 모델 출시로 추가적인 성장이 예상됩니다.
S&P Global Mobility prévoit que les nouvelles ventes de véhicules légers en juillet 2024 atteindront 1,32 million d'unités, soit une augmentation de 1% par rapport à l'année dernière. Cela se traduit par un rythme de vente estimé de 16,4 millions d'unités (SAAR), le plus élevé depuis mai 2021. Cette hausse est attribuée aux achats retardés suite à l'attaque par cybercriminalité sur le logiciel de gestion des concessionnaires en juin.
Malgré un jour de vente de moins, les ventes de juillet devraient égaler celles de juin. La moyenne SAAR sur deux mois de juin-juillet s'aligne sur les niveaux d'avril-mai, indiquant une légère progression alors que l'augmentation des stocks et les incitations atténuent les préoccupations concernant l'accessibilité. Cependant, des signaux contrastés persistent pour le second semestre 2024.
Les stocks continuent d'augmenter, avec une hausse de 1,8% par rapport à mai et de 57% par rapport à juin dernier. La part des véhicules électriques à batterie (BEV) est attendue à 7,8% en juillet, avec un potentiel de croissance supplémentaire grâce au lancement de nouveaux modèles.
S&P Global Mobility prognostiziert, dass die neuen Verkäufe von Leichtfahrzeugen im Juli 2024 1,32 Millionen Einheiten erreichen werden, was einem Anstieg von 1% im Vergleich zum Vorjahr entspricht. Dies entspricht einem geschätzten Verkaufsrhythmus von 16,4 Millionen Einheiten (SAAR), dem höchsten seit Mai 2021. Der Anstieg wird auf verzögerte Käufe aufgrund des Cyberangriffs auf die Dealer-Management-Software im Juni zurückgeführt.
Trotz eines Verkaufstags weniger wird erwartet, dass die Verkäufe im Juli mit denen im Juni übereinstimmen. Der Zwei-Monats-Durchschnitt SAAR für Juni-Juli entspricht den April-Mai-Werten, was auf eine leichte Fortschritt hinweist, während steigende Bestände und Anreize die Preis-Leistungs-Bedenken mildern. Gemischte Signale bleiben jedoch für das zweite Halbjahr 2024 bestehen.
Der Lagerbestand steigt weiterhin, um 1,8% im Vergleich zu Mai und um 57% im Vergleich zu Juni letzten Jahres. Der Anteil an batterieelektrischen Fahrzeugen (BEV) wird im Juli voraussichtlich 7,8% erreichen, wobei weiteres Wachstum aufgrund neuer Modelle erwartet wird.
- New light vehicle sales projected to increase 1% year-over-year in July 2024
- Estimated sales pace of 16.4 million units (SAAR), highest since May 2021
- Inventory levels continue to rise, up 57% compared to last June
- BEV market share expected to reach 7.8% in July, with further growth anticipated
- Persistent new vehicle affordability concerns
- Some automakers struggling to balance sales, production, inventory, and incentive targets
- North American light vehicle production outlook scaled back for the remainder of the year
Insights
The July auto sales projection offers a nuanced view of the current market dynamics. The expected 1% year-over-year increase to
However, it's important to note that this boost is partly attributed to delayed transactions from June's cyberattacks. When averaged with June's figures, the two-month SAAR aligns closely with April and May levels, suggesting a more modest underlying growth trend. The industry continues to grapple with affordability concerns and inventory management, which could temper growth in the latter half of 2024.
The
The projected
The projected sales figures for July 2024 present a complex financial landscape for the auto industry. While the 16.4 million SAAR appears robust, it's important to contextualize this within the broader economic environment and industry-specific challenges.
The sustained growth in inventory levels, up
The shift towards electric vehicles, with BEVs expected to capture
Investors should closely monitor automakers' ability to balance production with demand, as overproduction in a market facing affordability concerns could lead to inventory gluts and price pressures. The scaling back of North American production outlook suggests a cautious approach by manufacturers, which could help maintain pricing power but might limit revenue growth potential.
Overall, while the sales figures are encouraging, the underlying dynamics suggest a need for careful financial management and strategic planning by auto companies in the face of evolving market conditions.
Given the shift of delayed new vehicle purchases which stemmed from the dealer management software cyberattack, the pace of sales in July is expected to realize a notable boost
"As a result of delayed transactions from the June auto dealer cyberattacks, even with one less selling day than June 2024, auto sales volume in July is expected to essentially match the month-prior result," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "When averaged together, the two-month SAAR level of June and July would be very similar to the respective readings of April (15.8M) and May (15.9M), which were progressing mildly as rising inventory and incentive levels continue to help alleviate some new vehicle affordability pinch points. Mixed signals regarding the outlook for the second half of the year remain entrenched though, as new vehicle affordability concerns remain prevalent, and inventories are not expected to advance as strongly as they have done over the past 12 months."
On the supply side of the equation, with pockets of automakers reaching inventory saturation points given the current pace of sales, there are expected to be some interesting dynamics in the short-term production outlook. "Some automakers are struggling to balance their sales, production, inventory and incentive targets as the market returns to more normal dynamics than what occurred from 2020-2023," said Joe Langley, associate director at S&P Global Mobility. "Our North American light vehicle production outlook for the remainder of this year has been scaled back as automakers attempt to manage these factors."
According to Matt Trommer, associate director, S&P Global Mobility, "Analysis of June retail advertised inventory data in the US finds that inventory continues to rise. Available retail advertised inventory at the end of June continued to grow, up
US Light Vehicle Sales | ||||
July 24 (Est) | Jun 24 | July 23 | ||
Total Light Vehicle | Units, NSA | 1,321,000 | 1,321,932 | 1,299.271 |
In millions, SAAR | 16.4 | 15.3 | 15.9 | |
Light Truck | In millions, SAAR | 13.2 | 12.5 | 12.7 |
Passenger Car | In millions, SAAR | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.2 |
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), | ||||
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, some month-to-month volatility is anticipated. July BEV share is expected to reach
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility
FAQ
What is the projected new light vehicle sales volume for July 2024 according to S&P Global Mobility?
What is the estimated sales pace (SAAR) for July 2024, and how does it compare to previous months?
How has the June auto dealer cyberattack affected July 2024 sales projections for SPGI?
What is the projected battery-electric vehicle (BEV) market share for July 2024?
