S&P Global Mobility: August sales - big volume, but little change to underlying dynamics
S&P Global Mobility forecasts US light vehicle sales for August 2024 at 1.42 million units, up 7% year-over-year and 11% from July. This translates to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.2 million units. Despite being one of the largest monthly volumes this year, the market is still seeking stronger growth.
Key points:
- New vehicle affordability remains the biggest obstacle to sales growth
- High interest rates and slow-to-recede vehicle prices result in high monthly payments
- Inventory and incentives are expected to improve, but show some volatility
- Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) share is expected to reach 8.1% in August
- BEV share is anticipated to progress in the coming months with new model launches
S&P Global Mobility prevede che le vendite di veicoli leggeri negli Stati Uniti per agosto 2024 raggiungeranno 1,42 milioni di unità, con un aumento del 7% su base annua e dell'11% rispetto a luglio. Questo si traduce in un tasso annuale stagione corretto (SAAR) di 15,2 milioni di unità. Nonostante si tratti di uno dei volumi mensili più elevati di quest'anno, il mercato sta ancora cercando una crescita più forte.
Punti chiave:
- La sostenibilità dei prezzi dei veicoli nuovi rimane il maggior ostacolo alla crescita delle vendite
- I tassi d'interesse elevati e i prezzi dei veicoli che faticano a scendere si traducono in pagamenti mensili elevati
- Si prevede che l'inventario e gli incentivi migliorino, ma mostrino una certa volatilità
- La quota dei veicoli elettrici a batteria (BEV) dovrebbe raggiungere l'8,1% ad agosto
- Si prevede che la quota di BEV progredisca nei prossimi mesi con il lancio di nuovi modelli
S&P Global Mobility pronostica que las ventas de vehículos ligeros en EE. UU. para agosto de 2024 serán de 1,42 millones de unidades, un incremento del 7% interanual y del 11% respecto a julio. Esto se traduce en una tasa anual ajustada estacionalmente (SAAR) de 15,2 millones de unidades. A pesar de ser uno de los volúmenes mensuales más grandes de este año, el mercado sigue buscando un crecimiento más robusto.
Puntos clave:
- La asequibilidad de los vehículos nuevos sigue siendo el mayor obstáculo para el crecimiento de las ventas
- Las altas tasas de interés y los precios de los vehículos que bajan lentamente resultan en altos pagos mensuales
- Se espera que el inventario y los incentivos mejoren, pero muestren algo de volatilidad
- Se prevé que la cuota de vehículos eléctricos de batería (BEV) alcance el 8,1% en agosto
- Se anticipa que la cuota de BEV progrese en los próximos meses con el lanzamiento de nuevos modelos
S&P 글로벌 모빌리티는 2024년 8월 미국의 경량차 판매량이 142만 대에 이를 것으로 예상하며, 이는 전년 대비 7% 증가하고 7월 대비 11% 증가한 수치입니다. 이는 계절 조정 연율 (SAAR) 1520만 대에 해당합니다. 올해 가장 큰 월간 판매량 중 하나임에도 불구하고 시장은 여전히 더 강한 성장을 모색하고 있습니다.
주요 포인트:
- 신차의 경제성은 여전히 판매 성장에 가장 큰 장애물로 남아 있습니다
- 높은 금리와 느리게 하락하는 차량 가격으로 인해 매달 지불해야 하는 금액이 높습니다
- 재고와 인센티브는 개선될 것으로 예상되지만, 약간의 변동성을 보일 것입니다
- 배터리 전기차(BEV)의 비율은 8.1%에 이를 것으로 예상됩니다
- BEV 비율은 새로운 모델 출시와 함께 향후 몇 개월 동안 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다
S&P Global Mobility prévoit que les ventes de véhicules légers aux États-Unis pour août 2024 atteindront 1,42 million d'unités, soit une augmentation de 7 % par rapport à l'année précédente et de 11 % par rapport à juillet. Cela se traduit par un taux annuel désaisonnalisé (SAAR) de 15,2 millions d'unités. Bien qu'il s'agisse de l'un des volumes mensuels les plus importants de cette année, le marché recherche toujours une croissance plus forte.
Points clés :
- L'accessibilité des nouveaux véhicules reste le principal obstacle à la croissance des ventes
- Des taux d'intérêt élevés et des prix des véhicules qui diminuent lentement entraînent des paiements mensuels élevés
- On s'attend à une amélioration des stocks et des incitations, mais avec une certaine volatilité
- La part des véhicules électriques à batterie (BEV) devrait atteindre 8,1 % en août
- On anticipe également une progression de la part de BEV dans les mois à venir avec le lancement de nouveaux modèles
S&P Global Mobility prognostiziert, dass die Verkaufszahlen leichter Fahrzeuge in den USA im August 2024 bei 1,42 Millionen Einheiten liegen werden, was einem Anstieg von 7 % im Vergleich zum Vorjahr und 11 % gegenüber Juli entspricht. Dies entspricht einer saisonbereinigten Jahresrate (SAAR) von 15,2 Millionen Einheiten. Trotz eines der größten monatlichen Volumina in diesem Jahr sucht der Markt weiterhin nach stärkerem Wachstum.
Wichtige Punkte:
- Die Erschwinglichkeit neuer Fahrzeuge bleibt das größte Hindernis für das Verkaufswachstum
- Hohe Zinssätze und langsam fallende Fahrzeugpreise führen zu hohen monatlichen Zahlungen
- Es wird erwartet, dass sich der Lagerbestand und die Anreize verbessern, aber auch einige Volatilität zeigen
- Der Anteil der batterieelektrischen Fahrzeuge (BEV) soll im August 8,1 % erreichen
- Es wird erwartet, dass der BEV-Anteil in den kommenden Monaten mit der Einführung neuer Modelle zunimmt
- US light vehicle sales volume expected to increase 7% year-over-year and 11% month-over-month
- Battery-electric vehicle (BEV) share expected to reach 8.1% in August
- BEV share projected to progress over the next several months with new model launches
- New vehicle affordability remains a significant obstacle to sales growth
- High interest rates and slow-to-recede vehicle prices result in high monthly payments
- Inventory declined in July compared to June, the first month-over-month drop since May 2023
Insights
The August sales report from S&P Global Mobility reveals a mixed picture for the US auto market. While the 7% year-over-year increase and 11% month-over-month growth in sales volume are positive indicators, the underlying dynamics suggest a market still facing challenges. The 15.2 million SAAR is moderate, indicating that sales haven't yet found their next gear.
Key factors holding back stronger growth include:
- High interest rates
- Slow-to-recede vehicle prices
- Affordability issues
The 52.5% year-over-year increase in retail advertised inventory is significant, but the 2.3% month-over-month decline suggests potential supply chain issues. The 8.1% BEV market share shows steady progress in electrification, with potential for further growth as new models hit the market.
The August sales data presents a neutral outlook for the auto industry. While volume growth is encouraging, the 15.2 million SAAR suggests a market that's neither booming nor crashing. Investors should note:
- Potential pressure on profit margins due to rising inventories and expected increases in incentives
- Continued challenges in consumer affordability, which may impact demand
- Gradual shift towards BEVs, potentially affecting traditional automakers' market share
The 2.3% monthly inventory decline could indicate supply chain improvements or a strategic reduction to maintain pricing power. Watch for Q3 earnings reports to gauge the impact of these sales trends on automakers' profitability and future guidance.
August US sales volume is expected to be one of the largest of the year, given 28 selling days and the inclusion of Labor Day weekend activity; but sales are still searching for the next gear
"New vehicle affordability remains the biggest obstacle preventing further advances in the pace of auto sales," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "The current environment of still-high interest rates and slow-to-recede vehicle prices are translating to still-high monthly payments and little progress for new vehicle demand levels."
Continued advances in inventories and incentives are expected over the remainder of the year—two levers necessary for affordability issues to ease and sales to progress. But recent developments reflect some volatility for both metrics.
According to Matt Trommer, associate director, S&P Global Mobility, "Analysis of July retail advertised inventory data in the US finds that inventory declined compared to month-end June reporting, the first month-over-month drop since May 2023. Available retail advertised inventory at the end of July was up
US Light Vehicle Sales | ||||
Aug 24 (Est) | July 24 | Aug 23 | ||
Total Light Vehicle | Units, NSA | 1,422,000 | 1,273,115 | 1,318,588 |
In millions, SAAR | 15.2 | 15.8 | 15.3 | |
Light Truck | In millions, SAAR | 12.4 | 12.8 | 12.2 |
Passenger Car | In millions, SAAR | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), | ||||
Strong development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, moderate month-to-month volatility is anticipated. August BEV share is expected to reach
BEV share is expected to progress over the next several months, continuing the upward trend realized since April 2024, assisted by the roll outs of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV and Honda Prologue, followed by new BEVs such as the Jeep Wagoneer S and Volkswagen ID. Buzz slated for release in the second half of 2024.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility
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