Absolute Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Canadian Oil Sands Near-Flat in 2023 Even as Production Grew
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, Canadian oil sands' absolute greenhouse gas emissions increased by less than 1% in 2023 despite production growth. Since 2020, emissions growth has slowed to about 1% annually, compared to 5% in the previous decade. While absolute emissions were 3% higher in 2023 compared to 2019, production grew by 9% (250,000 barrels per day) in the same period. The average GHG intensity of production decreased to 58 kilograms of CO2 equivalent per barrel in 2023, marking a 28% reduction since 2009. Despite this trend, absolute emissions are expected to rise in the near term due to anticipated production increases.
Secondo S&P Global Commodity Insights, le emissioni assolute di gas serra delle sabbie bituminose canadesi sono aumentate di meno dell'1% nel 2023, nonostante la crescita della produzione. Dal 2020, la crescita delle emissioni si è rallentata a circa l'1% annuo, rispetto al 5% nel decennio precedente. Mentre le emissioni assolute nel 2023 erano superiori del 3% rispetto al 2019, la produzione è aumentata del 9% (250.000 barili al giorno) nello stesso periodo. L'intensità media di GHG della produzione è scesa a 58 chilogrammi di CO2 equivalente per barile nel 2023, segnando una riduzione del 28% dal 2009. Nonostante questa tendenza, si prevede che le emissioni assolute aumenteranno nel breve termine a causa degli aumenti della produzione attesi.
Según S&P Global Commodity Insights, las emisiones absolutas de gases de efecto invernadero de las arenas bituminosas canadienses aumentaron en menos del 1% en 2023 a pesar del crecimiento de la producción. Desde 2020, el crecimiento de las emisiones se ha desacelerado a aproximadamente un 1% anual, en comparación con el 5% en la década anterior. Mientras que las emisiones absolutas fueron un 3% más altas en 2023 en comparación con 2019, la producción creció un 9% (250.000 barriles por día) en el mismo período. La intensidad media de GHG de la producción disminuyó a 58 kilogramos de CO2 equivalente por barril en 2023, lo que marca una reducción del 28% desde 2009. A pesar de esta tendencia, se espera que las emisiones absolutas aumenten a corto plazo debido a los aumentos anticipados en la producción.
S&P Global Commodity Insights에 따르면, 캐나다 오일 샌드의 절대 온실가스 배출량은 생산 증가에도 불구하고 2023년에 1% 미만 증가했습니다. 2020년 이후, 배출 성장률은 이전 10년의 5%에 비해 연평균 약 1%로 둔화되었습니다. 2023년의 절대 배출량은 2019년 대비 3% 증가했지만, 같은 기간 동안 생산량은 9% (하루 250,000 배럴) 증가했습니다. 2023년의 평균 GHG 강도는 배럴당 58킬로그램의 CO2 환산량으로 감소했으며, 이는 2009년 이후 28% 감소한 수치입니다. 이러한 추세에도 불구하고, 예상되는 생산 증가로 인해 절대 배출량은 단기적으로 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.
Selon S&P Global Commodity Insights, les émissions absolues de gaz à effet de serre des sables bitumineux canadiens ont augmenté de moins de 1% en 2023 malgré la croissance de la production. Depuis 2020, la croissance des émissions a ralenti à environ 1% par an, contre 5% dans la décennie précédente. Bien que les émissions absolues aient augmenté de 3% en 2023 par rapport à 2019, la production a augmenté de 9% (250 000 barils par jour) durant la même période. L'intensité moyenne des GES de la production a diminué à 58 kilogrammes de CO2 équivalent par baril en 2023, marquant une réduction de 28% depuis 2009. Malgré cette tendance, il est prévu que les émissions absolues augmentent à court terme en raison des augmentations de production anticipées.
Laut S&P Global Commodity Insights stiegen die absoluten Treibhausgasemissionen der kanadischen Ölsande 2023 trotz eines Produktionswachstums um weniger als 1 %. Seit 2020 hat sich das Emissionswachstum auf etwa 1 % pro Jahr verlangsamt, im Vergleich zu 5 % im vorhergehenden Jahrzehnt. Während die absoluten Emissionen 2023 im Vergleich zu 2019 um 3 % höher waren, wuchs die Produktion im gleichen Zeitraum um 9 % (250.000 Barrel pro Tag). Die durchschnittliche GHG-Intensität der Produktion sank 2023 auf 58 Kilogramm CO2-Äquivalent pro Barrel, was einem Rückgang von 28 % seit 2009 entspricht. Trotz dieses Trends wird erwartet, dass die absoluten Emissionen aufgrund erwarteter Produktionsanstiege in naher Zukunft steigen werden.
- GHG emissions growth slowed to 1% annually since 2020, down from 5% in previous decade
- Production efficiency improved with 28% reduction in GHG intensity since 2009
- Oil sands production increased by 9% (250,000 barrels/day) from 2019 to 2023
- Absolute emissions increased 3% (3 million metric tons) from 2019 to 2023
- Further emissions increases expected in near term due to production growth
- Additional decarbonization efforts required to meet 2030 federal emissions limits
Insights
The data reveals a significant shift in Canadian oil sands' environmental performance, with absolute emissions growing at just
The sector's trajectory suggests emissions could peak earlier and lower than previous forecasts, though near-term production growth will likely push absolute emissions higher. The challenge of meeting 2030 federal emissions limits remains substantial, requiring rapid scaling of carbon capture infrastructure. This data will likely influence both regulatory policy decisions and ESG-focused investment strategies in the sector.
The decoupling of production growth from emissions intensity represents a important inflection point for the oil sands industry. With production up
However, the projected production increases through 2030 will test the industry's ability to maintain this trajectory. The success of planned carbon capture and storage initiatives will be critical for S&P Global's future assessments and could impact the sector's cost structure and competitiveness in global markets.
Annual growth in absolute emissions was less than
The slowdown in absolute emissions growth has occurred even as oil sands production continues to increase. Compared to 2019, absolute emissions were
"The years-long trend of declining greenhouse gas intensity, coupled with slower production growth continues to slow the rise of absolute emissions," said Kevin Birn, Vice President, Canadian Oil Markets Chief Analyst and Head of Center for Emissions Excellence, S&P Global Commodity Insights. "The fact that the rate of production additions is outstripping emissions growth indicates that the production that is coming forward is of a much lower intensity than the overall average."
The S&P Global Commodity Insights Oil Sands Dialogue analysis finds that the average GHG intensity of oil sands production fell to 58 kilograms of "carbon dioxide equivalent" per barrel (kgCO2e/bbl) in 2023, the most recent year that S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates are available. Since 2009 the average GHG intensity of oil sands production has declined by nearly
S&P Global Commodity Insights has previously noted that the lower pace of absolute emissions growth may indicate oil sands emissions could peak sooner, and at a lower level than previously expected. The latest analysis, based on 2023 operations, continues to suggest this could be the case. Nevertheless, absolute emissions are still expected to rise in the near term due to more pronounced production additions expected in the next few years.
"Anticipated production additions are expected to outstrip intensity reductions in the near term, and that means that greater decarbonization efforts from the sector will likely be required to meet the proposed federal oil and gas emissions limit by 2030," said Birn. "Bringing sufficient carbon and storage capacity online in just a few short years will be a challenge. However, the slower pace of emissions additions could make the proposed 2030 emissions limit more achievable."
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SOURCE S&P Global Commodity Insights
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