Redfin Reports Supply Ticked Up in February for First Time in 8 Months

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin's latest report reveals a surge in new home listings, with a 13% increase nationwide, boosting total homes for sale by 1.7%. Despite high mortgage rates, sale prices rose 5.3% year over year, but are expected to decline soon. Home touring activity is up 23% from the start of the year, with a significant 11% increase in mortgage-purchase applications.

Insights

Economist

An uptick in new housing listings and mortgage-purchase applications suggests a potential shift in the housing market dynamics. The reported 13% increase in new listings could be a sign of market correction, with sellers entering the market after a period of hesitation due to high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. However, the increase in inventory may not immediately translate into lower housing prices due to the 5.3% rise in median sale prices, indicating that demand remains robust despite the cost pressures.

From an economic standpoint, the 1.7% rise in active listings is a modest improvement in supply, which could help balance the market if the trend continues. The 6.94% mortgage rate, while slightly down from the previous week, remains historically high, potentially affecting buyer affordability and slowing the pace of home sales, as evidenced by the 6.4% drop in pending sales.

The current 3.7 months of supply is closer to a balanced market, which could lead to a more stable housing environment in the long-term. However, the high median monthly mortgage payment near the all-time high suggests that affordability challenges persist for many potential buyers. The overall economic impact will depend on the interplay between supply, mortgage rates and buyer demand in the coming months.

Market Research Analyst

The data indicates a nuanced picture of the housing market. The 23% increase in touring activity and 11% week-over-week rise in mortgage-purchase applications reflect a resurgence in buyer interest as the spring season approaches, traditionally a peak period for home buying. However, the fact that this has not yet resulted in increased sales could suggest that buyers are still cautious, likely due to the high mortgage rates and overall economic conditions.

Regionally, the disparities in median sale price changes, with significant increases in some metros like Newark and decreases in others like San Antonio, highlight the localized nature of real estate markets. These variations could be driven by local economic factors, housing policies and supply-demand dynamics. The reported 5.5% of sellers dropping their asking price may indicate that some markets are experiencing price adjustments, reflecting a shift towards buyer's market conditions in certain areas.

For businesses and investors in the real estate sector, these trends could inform decisions on where to focus their efforts, with certain regions offering more opportunities than others. The market's response to the increased supply will be critical to monitor, as it will impact the investment outlook for housing-related stocks and industries.

Financial Analyst

The housing market is a key economic indicator and can have significant implications for the stock market, particularly for companies in the housing, construction and mortgage industries. The smallest increase in asking prices in about two months may signal a cooling off period, which could impact the revenues and profitability of real estate firms. On the other hand, the rise in new listings and mortgage applications points to a possible increase in transaction volumes, which could benefit real estate brokers and mortgage lenders.

It is important to note the potential lag between increased buyer activity and actual sales, which could affect the short-term performance of companies in the sector. Investors will need to monitor whether the increase in supply will lead to a softening of prices and how this will affect the housing market's contribution to economic growth. The high mortgage rates remain a concern, as they could continue to constrain buyer affordability and thus, the real estate market's recovery.

For stakeholders, these developments suggest a cautious optimism, as the increased activity could lead to more sales down the line, but the high mortgage rates and housing payments might limit the market's growth potential. Companies with exposure to the housing market should consider these factors in their strategic planning and financial forecasting.

There are more homes for sale as spring approaches, and house hunters are hitting the pavement. Home touring activity is rising, and mortgage-purchase applications are up 11% this week.

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) —New listings rose 13% from a year earlier nationwide during the four weeks ending March 3, the biggest increase in nearly three years, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

The boost in new listings helped bring the total number of homes for sale up 1.7%. Following eight months of declines, February is the first month the number of homes for sale has increased on an annual basis.

This week’s pricing data also brings a few glimmers of hope for house hunters. Asking prices of new listings posted their smallest increase in roughly two months; additionally, 5.5% of home sellers dropped their asking price, on average, the highest share of any February since at least 2015. High mortgage rates pushed the median monthly housing payment to $2,694 this week, just $23 shy of the all-time high. But final sale prices, which rose 5.3% year over year, one of the biggest increases in a year and a half, should start declining soon as price growth for new listings loses some momentum.

House hunters are looking at homes and applying for mortgages as we approach spring. Touring activity is up 23% from the start of the year, compared to a 14% increase during the same period last year, and mortgage-purchase applications are up 11% week over week. That early-stage buying activity hasn’t yet translated to a boost in sales, with pending sales down 6% year over year.

“There have been two major obstacles for homebuyers over the last year: Low inventory and high housing costs,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Now, the first barrier is starting to come down as more supply comes on the market. Housing costs are still high, but they’re likely to come down a bit as mortgage rates gradually decline through the year and price growth loses some steam. Buyers who can afford today’s mortgage rates may have better luck finding a home now than they have in the past several months, and they also may be less likely to face competition because inventory is improving.”

For more of Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates, please visit our “From Our Economists” page.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.97% (March 6)	Down from 7.15% a week earlier	Essentially flat	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.94% (week ending Feb. 29)	Up from 6.9% a week earlier; 4th straight week of increases	Up from 6.65%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Up 11% from a week earlier (as of week ending March 1)	Down 8%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)		Up 4% from a month earlier (as of week ending March 3)	Down 7%	Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Google searches for “home for sale”		Up 4% from a month earlier (as of March 2)	Down 11%	Google Trends
Touring activity		Up 23% from the start of the year (as of March 1)	At this time last year, it was up 14% from the start of 2023	ShowingTime, a home touring technology company

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending March 3, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending March 3, 2024	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$368,588	5.3%
Median asking price	$399,223	5.1%	Smallest increase since 4 weeks ending Jan. 14
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,694 at a 6.94% mortgage rate	6.9%	Down just $23 from all-time high set in October 2023
Pending sales	77,925	-6.4%
New listings	81,971	12.8%	Biggest increase since June 2021 (there was also a 12.8% increase during the prior 4-week period)
Active listings	773,048	1.7%	Largest increase since the four weeks ending June 4, 2023. Based on revised data, active listings began increasing for the first time since June during the 4 weeks ending Feb. 11.
Months of supply	3.7 months	+0.3 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
Share of homes off market in two weeks	39.1%	Up from 37%
Median days on market	47	-2 days
Share of homes sold above list price	24.3%	Up from 23%
Share of homes with a price drop	5.5%	+1.3 pts.
Average sale-to-list price ratio	98.5%	+0.4 pts.

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending March 3, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	Newark, NJ (14.7%) Montgomery County, PA (14.6%) Anaheim, CA (14%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (13.9%) New Brunswick, NJ (13.8%)	San Antonio, TX (-3.2%)	Declined in just 1 metro
Pending sales	Cincinnati (9.2%) Milwaukee (6%) Pittsburgh (5%) Minneapolis (5%) Austin, TX (4.6%) San Francisco (2.8%) Seattle (0.7%) Cleveland (0.2%)	San Antonio, TX (-23.8%) Warren, MI (-15.7%) New Brunswick, NJ (-15.6%) Atlanta (-15.1%) Nassau County, NY (-14.1%)	Increased in 8 metros
New listings	Fort Worth, TX (27%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (25.4%) Houston (24.4%) Jacksonville, FL (24.1%) Miami (24.1%)	Atlanta (-5.9%) Newark, NJ (-2.1%) Chicago (-0.4%)	Declined in 3 metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-supply-increases-first-time-eight-months

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240307438812/en/

Redfin Journalist Services:

Kenneth Applewhaite, 206-414-8880

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What is the ticker symbol for Redfin?

The ticker symbol for Redfin is RDFN.

How much did new listings rise by from a year earlier according to Redfin's report?

New listings rose by 13% from a year earlier, the biggest increase in nearly three years.

What was the year-over-year change in median sale price according to Redfin's data?

The year-over-year change in median sale price was 5.3%.

By how much did the asking price of new listings increase by according to Redfin?

The asking price of new listings increased by 5.1%.

What was the change in pending sales year over year in the highlighted metros?

Pending sales decreased by 6.4% nationally and varied across different metros.