Redfin Reports Pending Home Sales Rose 4% in December—Biggest Jump in Over Two Years

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin (RDFN) reports a 4.1% month-over-month increase in pending home sales in December, the biggest jump since September 2021, driven by a significant decline in mortgage rates. The average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.82% in December from 7.44% in November, the largest monthly decrease since 2008. New listings also rose by 0.1% month over month, with active listings up by 3.1% month over month but down 5.1% from a year earlier. While housing supply is increasing, it remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Insights

Market Research Analyst

The recent report indicating a surge in pending home sales is a significant indicator of renewed vigor in the real estate market. This uptick can be attributed to the notable decrease in mortgage rates, which has historically been a catalyst for increased buying activity. The data suggests a shift in consumer behavior, where potential buyers transition from a state of observation to active participation in the market. This phenomenon is likely to stimulate further economic activity, as home purchases often lead to ancillary spending in areas such as home improvements and furnishings.

From a market perspective, the increase in pending sales volume is a positive sign for real estate companies and related sectors. It could signal an upcoming period of revenue growth for businesses involved in the housing market, from construction to retail. However, the supply side remains tight, with active listings still below pre-pandemic levels. This could result in a competitive market with potential upward pressure on prices, which may temper the long-term rate of sales growth if affordability becomes an issue.

Financial Analyst

The significant decline in mortgage rates leading to increased home sales activity has direct implications for the financial sector, particularly for lenders and mortgage servicing companies. The lower rates may spur refinancing activities, which can lead to a short-term boost in revenues for these institutions. However, there is also the potential for margin compression if the rates continue to remain low or decline further.

Investors should monitor the sustainability of this trend, as a prolonged low-rate environment could affect the interest income generated by these financial institutions. Additionally, the real estate market's performance is often seen as a bellwether for the broader economy. An increase in home sales can reflect consumer confidence and a robust economic outlook, which can have positive ripple effects across various market sectors.

Economist

The data presented suggests a correlation between mortgage rates and housing market activity, a relationship that is well-documented in economic theory. The decline in mortgage rates effectively lowers the cost of borrowing, making home purchases more accessible to a larger segment of the population. This can lead to an increase in demand for housing, which, in turn, can stimulate the economy through job creation in construction, real estate and other related industries.

However, it is crucial to consider the long-term implications of such rate changes. If rates are reduced to stimulate the market artificially, there could be concerns about housing affordability and the creation of asset bubbles. Conversely, if the rate reduction is a response to broader economic conditions, such as inflation control or economic slowdown, the increased housing market activity could be a positive sign of economic recovery and growth.

Homebuyers came out of the woodwork as mortgage rates posted the biggest monthly decline since 2008

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Pending home sales rose 4.1% month over month in December on a seasonally adjusted basis–the biggest increase since September 2021–to the highest level in more than a year. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. They climbed 5.9% from a year earlier, the biggest annual gain since June 2021.

Pending sales jumped because a steep drop in mortgage rates lured buyers to the market. The average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.82% in December from 7.44% in November, the biggest monthly decline since 2008. Buyers who were casually looking when rates were above 7% are now getting serious, Redfin agents say.

The dip in mortgage rates has also brought sellers off of the sidelines, though they haven’t returned with as much intensity as buyers, likely because a majority of them don’t want to give up the ultra low mortgage rate they scored during the pandemic. New listings rose 0.1% month over month to the highest seasonally adjusted level since September 2022, and were up 2.7% year over year—the largest increase since July 2021.

While housing supply has ticked up, it remains below pre-pandemic levels. Active listings, or the total number of homes for sale, rose 3.1% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis but fell 5.1% from a year earlier.

“We’re definitely seeing an uptick in activity from both buyers and sellers,” said Abby Alwan, a Redfin Premier real estate agent in Austin, TX. “I have two listings in the suburbs that six months ago would’ve sat on the market. But all of a sudden, buyers are coming out of the woodwork thanks to lower rates. More folks are looking to have conversations about what they need to do to enter the market now that they’ve seen improvement in the market.”

It’s worth noting that while demand jumped in December, January is off to a slower-than-expected start, likely due to severe winter weather. Redin economists expect the market to pick up as spring approaches, so long as mortgage rates don’t shoot up.

Home Prices Post Largest Increase in Over a Year

The median U.S. home sale price climbed 4% year over year to $403,714 in December, the biggest annual increase since October 2022, and fell 1.1% month over month. Please note that home price data is not seasonally adjusted, and it is not unusual for prices to slow from a month earlier in December.

The recent uptick in homebuyer demand is likely contributing to the rise in housing prices, but the primary driver of price increases is America’s persistent shortage of homes for sale, which is fueling competition in some areas.

“Bidding wars are happening again, but they’re much more reasonable than they were during the pandemic homebuying frenzy,” Alwan said. “Houses are getting between one and five competing bids, and instead of offering one or two hundred thousand dollars over the asking price, competitive buyers are offering 3% to 5% over.”

December 2023 Highlights: United States

	December 2023	Month-Over-Month Change	Year-Over-Year Change
Median sale price	$403,714	-1.1%	4%
Pending sales, seasonally adjusted	425,466	4.1%	5.9%
Homes sold, seasonally adjusted	407,255	-0.5%	-4%
New listings, seasonally adjusted	511,136	0.1%	2.7%
All homes for sale, seasonally adjusted (active listings)	1,569,438	3.1%	-5.1%
Months of supply	2.6	-0.3	0
Median days on market	43	6	-2
Share of for-sale homes with a price drop	14.2%	-5 ppts	0.5 ppts
Share of homes sold above final list price	25.5%	-3.3 ppts	2.5 ppts
Average sale-to-final-list-price ratio	98.6%	-0.4 ppts	0.5 ppts
Pending sales that fell out of contract, as % of overall pending sales	16.2%	-0.1 ppts	0.7 ppts
Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.82%	-0.63 ppts	0.45 ppts

Metro-Level Highlights: December 2023

• Pending sales: In New Orleans, pending sales rose 40.3% year over year, more than any other metro Redfin analyzed. Next came McAllen, TX (31.8%) and Dallas (25.7%). Pending sales fell most in Honolulu (-27.3%), Knoxville, TN (-24.2%) and Greensboro, NC (-22.8%).
• Closed sales: Closed sales rose in just six metros, with the biggest increases in North Port, FL (7.1% YoY), Las Vegas (4.6%) and Salt Lake City (4.4%). Closed sales fell fastest in Tacoma, WA (-23%), Boston (-19.4%) and Frederick, MD (-18.6%).
• Prices: Median sale prices rose most from a year earlier in Anaheim, CA (17.6%), Camden, NJ (16.1%) and Rochester, NY (16%). They fell in 10 metros, with the biggest declines in New Orleans (-5.4%), Charlotte, NC (-2.6%) and Austin (-2.4%).
• New listings: New listings rose most from a year earlier in Salt Lake City (22.3%), Memphis, TN (18.4%) and McAllen (16.6%). They fell most in San Francisco (-30.8%), Atlanta (-17.6%) and Indianapolis (-15.4%).
• Overall supply: Active listings increased fastest in Cape Coral, FL (53.7% YoY), North Port (40.7%) and New Orleans (26%). They decreased fastest in Las Vegas (-31%), New Brunswick, NJ (-25.4%) and Anaheim (-24.6%).
• Competition: In Rochester, 65.3% of homes sold above their final list price, the highest share among the metros Redfin analyzed. Next came Newark, NJ (61.3%) and Buffalo, NY (61.2%). The shares were lowest in West Palm Beach, FL (8.6%), Cape Coral (9.4%) and Austin (9.4%).
• Speed: In Rochester, 61% of homes that went under contract did so within two weeks—the highest share among the metros Redfin analyzed. Next came Grand Rapids, MI (48.5%) and Cincinnati (46.6%). The lowest shares were in Honolulu (2.4%), Knoxville (6%) and Lake County, IL (8.8%).

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-tracker-december-2023

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We also run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with same day tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home in certain markets can have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Customers who buy and sell with Redfin pay a 1% listing fee, subject to minimums, less than half of what brokerages commonly charge. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.5 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240119495504/en/

Contact Redfin

Redfin Journalist Services:

Ally Braun, 206-588-6863

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What is the ticker symbol for Redfin?

The ticker symbol for Redfin is RDFN.

What was the percentage increase in pending home sales in December?

Pending home sales rose by 4.1% month over month in December.

What was the average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate in December?

The average 30-year-fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.82% in December from 7.44% in November, the largest monthly decrease since 2008.

What was the percentage change in new listings in December?

New listings rose by 0.1% month over month in December.

What was the change in active listings from a year earlier?

Active listings rose by 3.1% month over month in December but fell 5.1% from a year earlier.