Redfin Reports Pending Home Sales Rise After Post-Election Surge in Home Tours

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin (NASDAQ: RDFN) reports a significant 12.1% year-over-year increase in U.S. pending home sales during the four weeks ending November 24, marking the largest increase since May 2021. This surge is attributed to two factors: a post-election boom in early-stage homebuying demand and comparison to the 2023 Thanksgiving period when sales are typically slow. Mortgage purchase applications rose 12% week over week, while new listings increased 10.6% year over year. The median sale price reached $386,625, up 7% year over year, representing the biggest increase since September 2022.

Positive

• Pending home sales increased 12.1% YoY, highest since May 2021
• Mortgage purchase applications up 12% week over week
• New listings rose 10.6% YoY, biggest increase since April
• Median sale price up 7% YoY to $386,625

Negative

• Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index fell to lowest level in over two months
• Median days on market increased by 7 days YoY
• Share of homes sold above list price decreased to 25% from 27% YoY
• Early-stage homebuying signals have tapered off

Insights

Real Estate Market Analyst

The 12.1% year-over-year increase in pending home sales requires careful interpretation. While appearing significant as the largest jump since May 2021, two key factors temper this headline number: the post-election surge in home tours and the Thanksgiving calendar effect in the comparison period. The 12.4% increase in active listings and 10.6% rise in new listings suggest improving inventory conditions, though still below historically normal levels.

The market shows mixed signals: mortgage purchase applications are up 12% week-over-week, but the Homebuyer Demand Index has fallen to a two-month low. The $386,625 median sale price, up 7% year-over-year, combined with the $2,578 median monthly mortgage payment, indicates persistent affordability challenges despite recent mortgage rate improvements from October's peaks.

Regional variations are notable, with coastal tech hubs showing stronger recovery signals - San Jose, New York and San Francisco leading in pending sales growth above 23%, while Florida markets show concerning weakness.

Pending sales posted a big year-over-year increase this week, partly because the boom in early-stage homebuying demand Redfin saw just after the election is translating to sales and partly because Redfin is comparing it to a period in 2023 that included Thanksgiving.

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — U.S. pending home sales rose 12.1% year over year during the four weeks ending November 24, the biggest increase since May 2021. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

One reason for the outsized increase is that early-stage homebuying demand, including home tours, boomed in the two weeks following the presidential election. But another notable reason is that Redfin is comparing it to a period in 2023 that included Thanksgiving, a time of year when home sales are typically very slow.

Redfin will know in the next few weeks whether the increase in pending sales is a Thanksgiving mirage or a sign of sustained strength in the housing market.

Mortgage purchase applications are up 12% week over week, though home tours and other early-stage signals have tapered off. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—fell to its lowest level in over two months during the week ending November 24, though it’s up 7% year over year. The recent dip in early-stage demand follows two weeks of big upswings; the demand index hit its highest level in nearly a year and a half in mid-November.

On the selling side, new listings are up 10.6% year over year, the biggest increase since April. That’s also due partly to the fact that Thanksgiving fell into last year’s comparable period. Like the surge in pending sales, Redfin will know more soon about whether the improvement in new listings is here to stay.

For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.95% (Nov. 26)	Down from 7.08% one week earlier	Down from 7.3%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.81% (week ending Nov. 27)	Highest level since July	Down from 7.29%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Up 12% from a week earlier (as of week ending Nov. 22)	Up 52%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)		Down 5% from a month earlier (as of week ending Nov. 24)	Up 7%	Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity		Down 8% from the start of the year (as of Nov. 25)	At this time last year, it was down 42% from the start of 2023	ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”		Unchanged from a month earlier (as of Nov. 25)	Unchanged	Google Trends

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Nov. 24, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending Nov. 24, 2024	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$386,625	7%	Biggest increase since Sept. 2022
Median asking price	$385,975	5.4%
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,578 at a 6.81% mortgage rate	2%
Pending sales	71,773	12.1%	Biggest increase since May 2021 (please note that we’re comparing to a period in 2023 that included Thanksgiving)
New listings	74,118	10.6%	Biggest increase since April (please note that we’re comparing to a period in 2023 that included Thanksgiving)
Active listings	1,010,868	12.4%	Smallest increase since March
Months of supply	3.9	-0.2 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
Share of homes off market in two weeks	29.3%	Down from 34%
Median days on market	42	+7 days
Share of homes sold above list price	25%	Down from 27%
Average sale-to-list price ratio	98.6%	-0.1 pt.

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Nov. 24, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	Philadelphia (21.8%) Newark, NJ (17.1%) Miami (13.7%) Cleveland (13.6%) Detroit (12.7%)	Tampa, FL (-1%)	Declined in 1 metro
Pending sales	San Jose, CA (23.7%) New York (23.7%) San Francisco (23.6%) Dallas (22.4%) Las Vegas (20%)	Miami (-6.3%) West Palm Beach, FL (-4.9%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-3.3%)	Declined in 3 metros
New listings	San Francisco (31.2%) Washington, D.C. (27.9%) Seattle (25.2%) New York (23.9%) Baltimore (18.6%)	Austin, TX (-14.2%) San Antonio (-9.7%) Atlanta (-5.5%) Orlando, FL (-0.1%)	Declined in 4 metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-homebuying-demand-thanksgiving/

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241127987879/en/

Contact Redfin

Redfin Journalist Services:

Tana Kelley

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What was Redfin's (RDFN) pending home sales growth in November 2024?

Redfin reported a 12.1% year-over-year increase in pending home sales during the four weeks ending November 24, 2024, marking the biggest increase since May 2021.

How much did RDFN's median home sale price increase in November 2024?

The median home sale price increased by 7% year-over-year to $386,625, representing the biggest increase since September 2022.

What was the mortgage purchase application trend for Redfin (RDFN) in November 2024?

Mortgage purchase applications increased by 12% week over week during the period ending November 22, 2024.

How did Redfin's (RDFN) new listings perform in November 2024?

New listings rose 10.6% year-over-year, marking the biggest increase since April 2024.