Redfin Reports House Hunters Are Back As Monthly Mortgage Payments Post First Annual Decline Since 2020

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin reports that the median U.S. monthly mortgage payment has decreased by 0.1% year-over-year to $2,587, marking the first annual decline since 2020. This drop is attributed to falling mortgage rates, which have stabilized at a 15-month low of about 6.5%. Despite home prices being up 3.6% year-over-year, the lower rates have inspired house hunters to return to the market.

Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index has risen 4% over the last week to its highest level in two months. However, pending home sales are down 5.3% year-over-year, and mortgage-purchase applications have decreased by 8%. On the supply side, new listings are up 3.4% year-over-year, and the total number of homes for sale has increased by 18%.

Positive

• Median U.S. monthly mortgage payment decreased by 0.1% year-over-year, first decline since 2020
• Mortgage rates stabilized at a 15-month low of about 6.5%
• Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index rose 4% over the last week to a two-month high
• New listings increased by 3.4% year-over-year
• Total number of homes for sale up 18% year-over-year

Negative

• Home prices still near record highs, up 3.6% year-over-year
• Pending home sales down 5.3% year-over-year, biggest decline in nine months
• Mortgage-purchase applications decreased by 8% year-over-year

Insights

Financial Analyst

The housing market is showing signs of stabilization, with the median U.S. monthly mortgage payment decreasing by 0.1% year-over-year. This marks the first annual decline in four years, primarily driven by falling mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped to 6.5%, down from its May peak of 7.2%.

Despite high home prices, which are up 3.6% year-over-year, the lower mortgage rates are rekindling buyer interest. Redfin's Homebuyer Demand Index has risen 4% in the past week, reaching a two-month high. However, this increased interest hasn't yet translated into sales, with pending home sales down 5.3% year-over-year.

On the supply side, new listings are up 3.4% year-over-year and total homes for sale have increased by 18%. This could lead to a more balanced market in the coming months, potentially benefiting buyers who have been sidelined by high prices and rates.

Real Estate Market Analyst

The stabilization of mortgage rates around 6.5% is a important factor in the current market dynamics. This rate, while still historically high, represents a significant improvement from the recent peak and is encouraging potential buyers to re-enter the market.

The median sale price of $390,000 indicates continued strength in home values, but the pace of appreciation has slowed. The 3.6% year-over-year increase is more moderate compared to the double-digit growth seen in recent years, suggesting a potential normalization of the market.

The months of supply at 3.6 is still below the 4-5 month range considered balanced, indicating that we remain in a seller's market, albeit less extreme than before. The increase in active listings and new listings could help alleviate some of the inventory constraints that have been driving up prices. This shift might lead to more negotiating power for buyers and a healthier, more sustainable market overall.

Economic Analyst

The housing market's current state reflects broader economic trends and expectations. The speculation about potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is influencing buyer behavior, with some entering the market in anticipation of future rate decreases.

However, it's important to note the divergence between early-stage demand indicators and actual sales data. While home tours and buyer interest are increasing, mortgage purchase applications are down 8% year-over-year. This disconnect suggests that while sentiment is improving, economic constraints such as inflation and job market uncertainties may still be limiting factors for many potential buyers.

The regional variations in the housing market are significant. Cities like Philadelphia and Detroit are seeing double-digit price increases, while markets like Austin and Tampa are experiencing slight declines. These differences highlight the importance of local economic conditions in driving housing market performance and underscore the challenges in making broad national predictions.

Signals of early-stage homebuying demand, including home tours, are gaining momentum as mortgage rates stabilize at a 15-month low

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — The median U.S. monthly mortgage payment was $2,587 during the four weeks ending August 18, its lowest level since February and down 0.1% from a year earlier. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

That’s a tiny drop, but it marks the first time in four years monthly payments have posted any decline at all. Housing payments are falling because mortgage rates are falling; weekly average mortgage rates are sitting at a 15-month low of just below 6.5%, down from a peak of 7.2% in May. Home prices are still near record highs, up 3.6% year over year.

Mortgage rates have been holding steady around 6.5% since the start of August. The stabilization of rates well below their peak has inspired house hunters to hit the pavement: Some would-be buyers who had been waiting for rates to decline more have realized that's unlikely to happen anytime soon, and others are gaining confidence that rates won't suddenly pop up before they put an offer on a home. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a measure of requests for tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—has risen 4% over the last week to its highest level in two months.

The uptick in home tours hasn’t yet translated to more sales. Pending home sales are down 5.3% year over year, the biggest decline in nine months (with the exception of the 4 weeks ending August 4), and mortgage-purchase applications are down 8%. But pending sales are a lagging indicator, and they may improve as home tours pick up, and Redfin agents report they’ve seen an uptick in buyer interest.

“Over the last two weeks, I’ve seen momentum build and I’ve felt clients get more excited about the prospect of buying or selling a home,” said Gregory Eubanks, a Redfin Premier agent in Los Angeles. “That stems from encouraging economic news and speculation that the Fed is going to cut interest rates in September. Some people are actively searching and listing their homes right now, and others are still hoping rates drop more significantly before making a move.”

On the supply side, new listings are up 3.4% year over year and the total number of homes for sale is up 18%. Redfin economists say we could see listings rise in the coming weeks, with the August 17 implementation of the NAR settlement inspiring some sellers to list their home, in hopes of a lower fee.

For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.46% (Aug. 21)	Near lowest level since spring 2023	Down from 7.48%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.49% (week ending Aug. 15)	Near lowest level in over a year; down from 7.22% in early May	Down from 7.09%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Declined 5% from a week earlier (as of week ending Aug. 16)	Down 8%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)		Up 4% from a month earlier to highest in two months (as of week ending Aug. 18)	Down 8% (smallest decline since April)	Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Touring activity		Up 9% from the start of the year (as of Aug. 19)	At this time last year, it was up 5% from the start of 2023	ShowingTime, a home touring technology company
Google searches for “home for sale”		Up 8% from a month earlier (as of Aug. 19)	Down 8%	Google Trends

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending August 18, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending August 18, 2024	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$390,000	3.6%	Up about $1,000 from a week earlier, but about $6,000 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending July 7
Median asking price	$397,388	6%	Biggest increase since Oct. 2022
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,587 at a 6.49% mortgage rate	-0.1%	Lowest level since Feb.; $245 below all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28
Pending sales	80,894	-5.3%	Biggest decline since Nov. 2023, except the 4 weeks ending Aug. 4, when there was a 5.9% decline
New listings	90,302	3.4%
Active listings	1,000,540	18%	Smallest increase since April
Months of supply	3.6	+0.7 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.
Share of homes off market in two weeks	36.5%	Down from 42%
Median days on market	35	+6 days
Share of homes sold above list price	28.9%	Down from 34%
Share of homes with a price drop	6.9%	+1.7 pts.	Highest level on record
Average sale-to-list price ratio	99.2%	-0.5 pts.

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending August 18, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	Philadelphia (12.6%) Nassau County, NY (10.4%) Detroit (10%) Anaheim, CA (9.9%) Milwaukee (9.5%)	Austin, TX (-1.8%) Tampa, FL (-1.3%) San Antonio, TX (-1.1%) Fort Worth, TX (-0.7%) Phoenix (-0.1%)	Declined in 5 metros
Pending sales	San Jose, CA (9.2%) Los Angeles (7.8%) Boston (7.5%) Montgomery County, PA (5.5%) Sacramento, CA (5.2%)	Houston (-17.1%) Atlanta (-16%) Tampa, FL (-15.2%) West Palm Beach, FL (-14.7%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-13%)	Increased in 13 metros
New listings	San Jose, CA (17.4%) San Diego (16.4%) Montgomery County, PA (16.2%) Miami (13.4%) Baltimore, MD (12.6%)	Atlanta (-15.1%) Newark, NJ (-5.9%) Austin, TX (-5.2%) San Antonio (-3.8%) Tampa, FL (-3.7%)	Declined in 14 metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-house-hunters-return-monthly-payments-decline

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240822049765/en/

Redfin Journalist Services:

Tana Kelley

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What is the current median U.S. monthly mortgage payment according to Redfin (RDFN)?

According to Redfin (RDFN), the current median U.S. monthly mortgage payment is $2,587 for the four weeks ending August 18, 2024.

How has Redfin's (RDFN) Homebuyer Demand Index changed recently?

Redfin's (RDFN) Homebuyer Demand Index has risen 4% over the last week to its highest level in two months.

What is the year-over-year change in pending home sales reported by Redfin (RDFN)?

Redfin (RDFN) reports that pending home sales are down 5.3% year-over-year, marking the biggest decline in nine months.

How have new listings changed according to Redfin's (RDFN) latest report?

According to Redfin's (RDFN) latest report, new listings are up 3.4% year-over-year.