Redfin Report: Listings Surge, Luring Some Buyers Off the Fence, But Near-Record Housing Costs Price Others Out

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin reports a 13% increase in new listings, the largest in nearly three years, while home prices and mortgage rates remain high. The median U.S. monthly housing payment is $2,686, close to the all-time high, with mortgage rates near 7% and sale prices up 5% year over year. Despite high costs, more buyers are entering the market due to increased supply.

Insights

Economist

The recent report indicating a significant rise in new listings and persistent high mortgage rates has notable implications for the housing market and broader economy. A 13% increase in new listings suggests a potential easing of the inventory shortage that has been a key factor in driving up home prices. However, with mortgage rates hovering near 7%, the cost of financing a home purchase remains a substantial barrier for many potential buyers.

The elevated mortgage rates, a consequence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy aimed at controlling inflation, have a dampening effect on demand. This is evidenced by the 6% decrease in pending sales compared to the previous year. The rise in mortgage-purchase applications could be a signal of pent-up demand, as buyers who have been sidelined by high rates may be trying to anticipate future rate hikes or are adjusting to the new cost baseline.

In the long term, if mortgage rates remain high, it could lead to a normalization of housing prices as sellers adjust to a smaller pool of buyers able to afford current prices. This could eventually benefit buyers with more negotiating power and a wider selection of homes. For the economy, the real estate sector's health is critical, as it affects consumer spending, construction jobs and financial markets.

Real Estate Market Analyst

The data on home listings and mortgage rates provides a nuanced view of the real estate market. The uptick in new listings by 13% is the largest in three years, indicating a shift towards greater market liquidity. However, the current high mortgage rates are likely to continue exerting upward pressure on the median U.S. monthly housing payment, which is nearing its all-time high.

Regionally, the uniform price increase across the most populous metros is a trend worth noting. It reflects a broad-based demand for housing that persists despite economic headwinds. The increased supply, if sustained, may help moderate price growth over time, but the impact will be uneven across different regions and will depend on local economic conditions and housing market dynamics.

For stakeholders, including investors in real estate and mortgage-backed securities, the current market conditions suggest a cautious approach. The potential for rate stabilization or even reduction later in the year could affect investment yields and the valuation of real estate assets. Close monitoring of Federal Reserve policy and inflation indicators will be essential for informed decision-making in this sector.

Financial Analyst

The interplay between rising home prices, high mortgage rates and increased housing supply presents a complex landscape for investors and consumers alike. The high mortgage rates are reflective of broader economic policies aimed at curbing inflation, which also impact consumer borrowing costs and spending habits. From a financial perspective, the real estate market's current state may lead to a contraction in homebuyer activity, which in turn could affect the revenues of companies involved in home construction, renovation and sales.

Investors should be aware of the potential for increased market volatility in real estate and related sectors. The stock market may react to changes in consumer sentiment, Federal Reserve announcements and inflation reports. Companies heavily invested in the housing market could see fluctuations in their stock prices as the market digests these mixed signals.

Moreover, the housing market's performance is often seen as an indicator of the overall health of the economy. Persistent high housing costs and the impact on affordability could have broader implications for economic growth and consumer confidence. Investors would do well to consider the potential ripple effects on various industries and the economy at large.

New listings rose 13% from a year earlier, their biggest increase in nearly three years, but home prices and mortgage rates remain elevated

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) —The median U.S. monthly housing payment was $2,686 during the four weeks ending March 10, just $30 shy of last October’s all-time high, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s due to a combination of still-high mortgage rates and rising prices.

While mortgage rates came down slightly this past week after increasing for four straight weeks, they’re still near 7%, and sale prices are up 5% year over year nationwide. On a local level, prices increased in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metros, the first time that has happened since July 2022.

High housing costs are still pricing out some would-be homebuyers, with pending sales down 6% from a year earlier. But more house hunters are wading into the market; mortgage-purchase applications rose for the second week in a row. That’s partly because supply is steadily improving, giving buyers who can afford elevated prices and rates more homes to choose from. New listings are up 13%, the biggest annual increase in nearly three years, and the total number of homes for sale is up 3%, the biggest increase in nine months.

“Mortgage rates are likely to stay high a little longer than expected, with the latest inflation report essentially eliminating any chance of the Fed cutting interest rates before June,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “Buyers who can afford to may want to get serious about their home search now, as housing costs are unlikely to fall anytime soon. The uptick in listings should be another motivator for buyers: There’s more to choose from, and improving inventory may bring out more competition from other buyers as we get further into spring. Some buyers have already gotten the memo, with mortgage applications finally increasing after weeks of declines.”

For more on Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, including how current financial events are impacting mortgage rates, please visit our “From Our Economists” page.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.94% (March 13)	Down from 6.97% a week earlier	Up from 6.75%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	6.88% (week ending March 7)	Down from 6.94% a week earlier; first decline after 4 weeks of increases	Up from 6.73%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Up 5% from a week earlier (as of week ending March 8); 2nd straight week of increases	Down 11%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)		Up 5% from a month earlier (as of week ending March 10)	Down 10%	Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Google searches for “home for sale”		Down 4% from a month earlier (as of March 9)	Down 19%	Google Trends
Touring activity		Up 29% from the start of the year (as of March 10)	At this time last year, it was up 20% from the start of 2023	ShowingTime, a home touring technology company

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending March 10, 2024 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending March 10, 2024	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$371,750	5.1%
Median asking price	$399,850	4.9%
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,686 at a 6.88% mortgage rate	7.3%	Just $30 shy of all-time high set in October 2023
Pending sales	79,779	-5.8%
New listings	85,122	13%	Biggest increase since June 2021
Active listings	780,779	2.9%	Biggest increase since May 2023
Months of supply	3.5 months	+0.4 pts.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions
Share of homes off market in two weeks	40.2%	Up from 38%
Median days on market	45	-2 days
Share of homes sold above list price	25.1%	Up from 24%
Share of homes with a price drop	5.6%	+1.5 pts.
Average sale-to-list price ratio	98.6%	+0.3 pts.

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending March 10, 2024 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	San Jose, CA (16.3%) Newark, NJ (15.1%) Boston (14.9%) West Palm Beach, FL (14.8%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (13.8%)	n/a	Increased in all metros
Pending sales	Milwaukee (11.5%) San Francisco (9%) Cincinnati (8%) Minneapolis (7.5%) San Jose, CA (5.8%)	San Antonio, TX (-25.8%) New York (-15%) Atlanta (-14.8%) Houston (-13.9%) New Brunswick, NJ (-13.8%)	Increased in 12 metros
New listings	San Jose, CA (30.4%) Phoenix (29.9%) Las Vegas (27.4%) Minneapolis (26%) Jacksonville, FL (24.9%)	New York (-18.4%) Atlanta (-5.8%) Newark, NJ (-3.9%) Chicago (-0.7%) Virginia Beach, VA (-0.4%) Philadelphia (-0.2%)	Declined in 6 metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-new-listings-surge

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans^®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide^®, Title Forward^® and WalkScore^®.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240314861472/en/

Redfin Journalist Services:

Kenneth Applewhaite, 206-414-8880

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What was the increase in new listings according to Redfin's report?

Redfin reported a 13% increase in new listings, the largest in nearly three years.

What is the median U.S. monthly housing payment mentioned in the report?

The median U.S. monthly housing payment is $2,686, close to the all-time high.

How have mortgage rates and sale prices changed year over year nationwide?

Mortgage rates are near 7%, and sale prices are up 5% year over year nationwide.

What has been the trend in pending sales compared to a year earlier?

Pending sales are down 6% from a year earlier.

What is the current trend in mortgage-purchase applications?

Mortgage-purchase applications rose for the second week in a row.

What is the prediction regarding mortgage rates by Redfin Economic Research Lead, Chen Zhao?

Chen Zhao predicts that mortgage rates are likely to stay high longer than expected, with no chance of the Fed cutting interest rates before June.