Redfin Report: Buyers Get an Early Holiday Gift as Rates Come Down and New Listings Rise

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin (RDFN) predicts widespread home price declines in 2024 as mortgage rates continue to drop. The median U.S. housing payment was $2,561, down $177 from the record high in October. Mortgage-purchase applications are up 15%, new listings are up 7% year over year, and homeowners contacting Redfin for help selling their home have increased by double digits.

Prices are falling from a year ago in four Texas metros—Austin, San Antonio, Houston and Fort Worth—and in Portland, OR. Redfin predicts price declines will become more widespread in the new year.

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

(NASDAQ: RDFN) —Homebuying is becoming more affordable as mortgage rates continue declining—the median U.S. housing payment was $2,561 during the four weeks ending December 3, down $177 from the record high they hit in October. This according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s spurring action from sidelined homebuyers and sellers.

Mortgage-purchase applications are up 15% from the 28-year low they dropped to at the start of November. New listings are up 7% year over year, the biggest increase since August 2021, and the number of homeowners contacting Redfin for help selling their home is up by double digits from a year ago.

Mortgage rates are coming down because economic events are tilting in the housing market’s favor. This week, a softer-than-expected report on job openings is another piece of evidence on a growing pile that the Fed may cut interest rates sooner than anticipated. The daily average 30-year fixed rate was 7.04% on December 6, down from 8% six weeks earlier and its lowest level since the start of August.

“With the hope of a few more homes coming on the market, buyers who can afford 7% mortgage rates or pay in cash have some bargaining power,” said Phoenix Redfin Premier Van Welborn. “People are taking their time looking at multiple homes, and they’re able to back out if the inspection uncovers problems because they can wait for something better to come on the market. But there isn’t much wiggle room on price: I’m advising buyers to be reasonable with their offers because home values are still relatively high and sellers don’t want to let go of their home for less than what they feel it’s worth.”

Home prices are falling from a year ago in five of the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Redfin predicts prices will start declining in more metros in 2024, though they still have room to grow in inexpensive parts of the country.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity
	Value (if applicable)	Recent change	Year-over-year change	Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	7.04% (Dec. 6)	Down from 7.22% a week earlier; lowest level since beginning of August	Up from 6.33%	Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate	7.22% (week ending Nov. 30)	Down from two-decade high of 7.79% six weeks earlier	Up from 6.49%	Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)		Unchanged from a week earlier (as of week ending Dec. 1)	Down 17%	Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)		Up 3% from a month earlier (as of the week ending Dec. 3)	Down 7%	Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents
Google searches for “home for sale”		Down 4% from a month earlier (as of Dec. 2)	Down 4%	Google Trends
Touring activity		Down 30% from the start of the year (as of Dec.3)	At this time last year, it was down 37% from the start of 2022	ShowingTime, a home touring technology company

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending December 3, 2023 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.
	Four weeks ending December 3, 2023	Year-over-year change	Notes
Median sale price	$364,166	4.1%	Prices are up partly because rapidly rising mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year
Median asking price	$371,163	6.7%	Biggest increase since Sept. 2022
Median monthly mortgage payment	$2,561 at a 7.22% mortgage rate	15%	Down $177 from all-time high set during the four weeks ending Oct. 22. Lowest level since August.
Pending sales	59,434	-7.4%
New listings	61,465	7.1%	Biggest uptick since August 2021. The increase is partly because new listings were falling at this time last year.
Active listings	853,529	-6.2%	Smallest decline since June
Months of supply	4.1 months	+0.1 pt.	4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions
Share of homes off market in two weeks	31.4%	Up from 28%
Median days on market	35	-3 days
Share of homes sold above list price	26.7%	Up from 25%
Share of homes with a price drop	5.5%	+0.3 pts.
Average sale-to-list price ratio	98.7%	+0.4 pts.

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending December 3, 2023 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.
	Metros with biggest year-over-year increases	Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases	Notes
Median sale price	Anaheim, CA (18.6%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (12%) Newark, NJ (11.4%) New Brunswick, NJ (10.5%) San Diego, CA (10.3%)	Austin, TX (-9.6%) San Antonio, TX (-2.1%) Houston (-0.9%) Portland, OR (-0.8%) Fort Worth, TX (-0.5%)	Declined in 5 metros
Pending sales	San Jose, CA (7.3%) Austin, TX (2.1%) Milwaukee (1%) Fort Worth, TX (0.6%) Los Angeles (0.4%)	Cleveland, OH (-21.9%) Cincinnati, OH (-21.8%) New York (-17.9%) Providence, RI (-17.4%) Boston (-16.1%)	Increased in 5 metros
New listings	Orlando, FL (27.6%) Phoenix (20.7%) West Palm Beach, FL (16.2%) Las Vegas (14.8%) Miami (14.7%)	Cleveland, OH (-17.8%) Atlanta (-16.1%) San Francisco (-15%) Oakland, CA (-7.2%) Boston (-7.1%)	Declined in 12 metros

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-decline-listings-increase

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We also run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with same day tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home in certain markets can have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Customers who buy and sell with Redfin pay a 1% listing fee, subject to minimums, less than half of what brokerages commonly charge. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.5 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231207413814/en/

Redfin Journalist Services:

Kenneth Applewhaite, 206-588-6863

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What is Redfin's (RDFN) prediction for home prices in 2024?

Redfin predicts that home prices will start declining in more metros in 2024 as mortgage rates continue to drop.

What was the median U.S. housing payment according to Redfin's report?

The median U.S. housing payment was $2,561, down $177 from the record high in October.

How much have mortgage-purchase applications increased year over year?

Mortgage-purchase applications are up 15% year over year.

What is the percentage change in new listings year over year?

New listings are up 7% year over year, the biggest increase since August 2021.

What are the key factors contributing to the decline in mortgage rates?

Economic events are tilting in the housing market’s favor, and a softer-than-expected report on job openings suggests that the Fed may cut interest rates sooner than anticipated, leading to a decline in mortgage rates.