29% of Homes for Sale in Third Quarter Were New Construction—a Record High

Rhea-AI Summary

Redfin reports a significant shift in housing inventory, with 29% of U.S. single-family homes for sale in Q3 being newly constructed—up from 25% last year. The rise is attributed to a surge in homes built during the pandemic and a slowdown in existing homeowners listing their properties. Homebuilders face challenges as rising mortgage rates reach 7%, compelling them to offer incentives to attract buyers. Builders are expected to ease construction in 2023, focusing on selling existing projects and shifting towards multifamily units due to ongoing demand.

Positive

• 29% of U.S. single-family homes for sale in Q3 were new constructions, highest for any Q3 recorded.
• Single-family housing starts rose 14% year-over-year in 2021, the largest increase since 2013.
• Incentives offered by builders include mortgage rate buy-downs and financial bonuses for agents.

Negative

• Rising mortgage rates at 7% are making it difficult for builders to sell new homes.
• Homebuilders are likely to reduce new construction projects in 2023 due to excess inventory.

Redfin reports new construction is taking up a growing piece of the housing inventory pie as scores of homes built during the pandemic go up for sale and individual homeowners hold off on listing amid a market slowdown

SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- (NASDAQ: RDFN) — Twenty-nine percent of U.S. single-family homes for sale in the third quarter were new construction—the highest share of any third quarter on record, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s up from 25% in the third quarter of 2021 and 18% in the third quarter of 2020.

Newly-built homes have been taking up a growing portion of overall housing supply since 2011, when building started to rebound after the financial crisis. The trend is now intensifying due to a surge in construction during the pandemic and a recent slowdown in existing homeowners putting their houses up for sale. Single-family housing starts rose 14% year over year in 2021, the largest annual increase since 2013. As a result, more single-family homes housing units were completed in the third quarter than any quarter since 2007. In September alone, the number of completed new homes for sale was up 19% from the prior month.

“Homebuilders started scores of projects during the pandemic moving frenzy and are now stuck with a bunch of new houses that are hard to sell because mortgage rates have risen to 7%,” said Faith Floyd, a Redfin real estate agent in Houston. “Builders are giving away everything but the kitchen sink to attract bidders. Many are offering to buy down the buyer’s mortgage rate by 1.5 points, and I’ve seen at least one offer a $10,000 check for closing costs, a $3,000 gift card and a free fridge. This one way builders will dig themselves out of the hole they’re in.”

Floyd continued: “Many builders are offering more incentives than regular sellers. A lot of individual sellers are still pricing their homes too high because they’re having a hard time accepting that the pandemic housing boom is over and they’re not going to get 30 offers like their neighbor did last year.”

Builders are also dangling incentives in front of real estate agents. Floyd said some are offering agents a 5% commission, up from 0% during the pandemic and the typical 3% before the pandemic, in addition to bonuses of $6,000.

With a glut of inventory on their hands, builders will likely ease up on construction in 2023, according to Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr.

“Homebuilders will take on fewer new projects next year as they focus on getting their existing projects sold,” Marr said. “Builders will also shift more toward multifamily units, for which there is still relatively high demand because rents remain high.”

Pandemic Boomtowns Have Relatively High Share of New Homes

Many of the metro areas with relatively high shares of new homes for sale have something in common: They ramped up building during the pandemic because they exploded in popularity with out-of-town buyers, and are now seeing significant slowdowns in their housing markets. More than half of the metros in the top 20 are in Texas or Florida—hot pandemic migration destinations with room to build. More than one-quarter of the top 20 are now on Redfin’s list of fastest cooling housing markets.

In El Paso, TX, newly built single-family homes made up half of all homes for sale in the third quarter—the highest share among the 80 major metros with sufficient data that Redfin analyzed. Next came Oklahoma City (43%), Omaha, NE (40%), Raleigh, NC (39%) and Houston (37%). Rounding out the top 10 are North Port-Sarasota, FL (35%), San Antonio (33%), Greenville, SC (33%), Boise, ID (33%) and Charleston, SC (32%).

The southwestern Florida metro of North Port was consistently one of the top migration destinations during the pandemic because it offers relative affordability and sunshine. That caused home prices and construction to surge. Building permits in North Port soared 68% year over year in 2021, while home prices rose 21%. Because it heated up so much during the pandemic, it’s now one of the fastest cooling markets. That’s causing many existing homeowners to hold off on listing, which is causing listings of newly built homes to take up an even larger share of the market.

It’s worth noting that North Port was hit hard by Hurricane Ian in late September, and has since seen a large drop in sales and new listings as a result—intensifying the market slowdown.

This dataset referenced in this press release is seasonal, which is why Redfin compares the third quarter of 2022 with past third quarters. The share typically hits an annual peak in the first quarter and troughs in the second or third quarter. The highest share of any quarter on record was 34% in the first quarter of 2021.

To view the full report, including charts and a metro-level summary, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/new-construction-q3-2022/

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, instant home-buying (iBuying), rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge half the fee. We also run the country's #1 real-estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can take an instant cash offer from Redfin or have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 6,000 people.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20221108005490/en/

Redfin Journalist Services:

Isabelle Novak, (414) 861-5861

press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

FAQ

What percentage of homes for sale in Q3 were newly constructed according to Redfin?

According to Redfin, 29% of U.S. single-family homes for sale in Q3 were newly constructed.

What major challenges are homebuilders facing in the current market?

Homebuilders are struggling to sell new homes due to rising mortgage rates, which have reached 7%.

How have housing starts changed year over year according to Redfin?

Single-family housing starts rose 14% year-over-year in 2021, marking the largest increase since 2013.

What incentives are builders providing to attract buyers?

Builders are offering incentives like mortgage rate buy-downs, closing cost assistance, and bonuses for real estate agents.

What trend is expected in home construction for 2023?

Builders are expected to reduce new construction projects in 2023 due to high inventory levels.