Realtor.com® 2024 Forecast Update: Mortgage Relief is Finally on the Way
Realtor.com's 2024 Forecast Update predicts positive year-over-year gains for home price growth and inventory. Key points include:
1. For-sale inventory is expected to increase by 14.5% year-over-year, a significant revision from the initial forecast of a 14% decline.
2. Existing home median sales price is projected to rise by 4.6% year-over-year, despite high mortgage rates and longer market times.
3. Mortgage rates are forecasted to average 6.7% throughout the year, ending at 6.3%.
4. Annual home sales are expected to see a modest 0.8% increase to 4.1 million units.
5. The forecast reflects a resilient U.S. economy and an undersupplied housing market, with only 12 of the 50 largest markets back to or above pre-pandemic inventory levels.
L'aggiornamento delle previsioni di Realtor.com per il 2024 prevede guadagni positivi anno su anno per la crescita dei prezzi delle case e l'inventario. I punti chiave includono:
1. Si prevede che l'inventario delle case in vendita aumenti del 14,5% anno su anno, una significativa revisione rispetto alla previsione iniziale di un calo del 14%.
2. Il prezzo mediano di vendita delle case esistenti è previsto in aumento del 4,6% anno su anno, nonostante i tassi di mutuo elevati e i tempi di permanenza prolungati sul mercato.
3. Si prevede che i tassi di mutuo medi siano del 6,7% per tutto l'anno, per chiudere a 6,3%.
4. Le vendite annuali di case dovrebbero registrare un modesto aumento dell'0,8% arrivando a 4,1 milioni di unità.
5. La previsione riflette un'economia statunitense resiliente e un mercato immobiliare sottofornito, con solo 12 dei 50 mercati più grandi che sono tornati o hanno superato i livelli di inventario pre-pandemia.
La actualización de pronóstico de Realtor.com para 2024 predice ganancias positivas año tras año para el crecimiento de los precios de las viviendas y el inventario. Los puntos clave incluyen:
1. Se espera que el inventario de casas en venta aumente un 14.5% año tras año, una revisión significativa respecto a la previsión inicial de una disminución del 14%.
2. Se proyecta que el precio medio de venta de las casas existentes aumente un 4.6% año tras año, a pesar de las altas tasas hipotecarias y de mayores tiempos de permanencia en el mercado.
3. Se espera que las tasas hipotecarias promedien 6.7% durante todo el año, terminando en un 6.3%.
4. Se prevé un modesto aumento del 0.8% en las ventas anuales de viviendas, alcanzando 4.1 millones de unidades.
5. La previsión refleja una economía estadounidense resiliente y un mercado de vivienda con escasez de oferta, con solo 12 de los 50 mercados más grandes que han vuelto o superado los niveles de inventario anteriores a la pandemia.
Realtor.com의 2024년 전망 업데이트는 주택 가격 상승 및 재고에 대한 긍정적인 연간 성장을 예측합니다. 주요 사항은 다음과 같습니다:
1. 판매용 재고는 전년 대비 14.5% 증가할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 최초 전망인 14% 감소에서 크게 수정된 수치입니다.
2. 기존 주택의 중위 판매 가격은 높은 대출금리와 긴 시장 체류에도 불구하고 전년 대비 4.6% 상승할 것으로 예상됩니다.
3. 대출금리는 올해 평균 6.7%로 예측되며, 연말에는 6.3%로 마감할 것으로 보입니다.
4. 연간 주택 판매량은 0.8%의 소폭 증가를 기록하며 410만 유닛에 도달할 것으로 예상됩니다.
5. 이 전망은 미국 경제의 회복력과 공급 부족의 주택 시장을 반영하며, 50대 주요 시장 중 단 12곳만이 팬데믹 이전 재고 수준으로 돌아가거나 이를 초과했습니다.
La mise à jour des prévisions 2024 de Realtor.com prévoit des gains positifs d'une année sur l'autre pour la croissance des prix immobiliers et l'inventaire. Les points clés incluent :
1. L'inventaire des maisons à vendre devrait augmenter de 14,5% d'une année à l'autre, une révision significative par rapport à la prévision initiale d'une diminution de 14%.
2. Le prix médian des maisons existantes devrait augmenter de 4,6% d'une année à l'autre, malgré des taux d'intérêt hypothécaires élevés et des durées de mise sur le marché prolongées.
3. On prévoit que les taux d'intérêt hypothécaires atteignent en moyenne 6,7% tout au long de l'année, se terminant à 6,3%.
4. Les ventes annuelles de logements devraient connaître une légère augmentation de 0,8%, atteignant 4,1 millions d'unités.
5. Cette prévision reflète une économie américaine résiliente et un marché immobilier sous-offert, avec seulement 12 des 50 plus grands marchés revenant à des niveaux d'inventaire pré-pandémiques ou les dépassant.
Der Prognose-Update von Realtor.com für 2024 erwartet positive jährliche Zuwächse bei dem Wachstum der Immobilienpreise und dem Inventar. Wichtige Punkte sind:
1. Es wird erwartet, dass das zum Verkauf stehende Inventar um 14,5% im Vergleich zum Vorjahr zunimmt, eine erhebliche Revision der ursprünglichen Prognose eines Rückgangs um 14%.
2. Der mediane Verkaufspreis bestehender Häuser wird voraussichtlich um 4,6% im Vergleich zum Vorjahr steigen, trotz hoher Hypothekenzinsen und längerer Marktverweildauer.
3. Die Hypothekenzinsen werden voraussichtlich im Jahresdurchschnitt 6,7% betragen, mit einem Jahresabschluss von 6,3%.
4. Die jährlichen Immobilienverkäufe werden voraussichtlich einen bescheidenen Anstieg von 0,8% auf 4,1 Millionen Einheiten verzeichnen.
5. Die Prognose spiegelt eine widerstandsfähige US-Wirtschaft und einen unterversorgten Wohnungsmarkt wider, wobei nur 12 der 50 größten Märkte wieder auf oder über dem Niveau des Vor-Pandemie-Inventars liegen.
- For-sale inventory forecasted to increase by 14.5% year-over-year
- Existing home median sales price projected to rise by 4.6% year-over-year
- Annual home sales expected to increase by 0.8% to 4.1 million units
- Mortgage rates forecasted to average 6.7%, ending the year at 6.3%
- Single-family home housing starts projected to increase by 10.5% to 1.0 million
- Homeownership rate expected to decline to 65.5% from 65.9% in 2023
- Rent change forecasted at -0.5%, indicating potential weakness in the rental market
Insights
The revised Realtor.com® 2024 forecast presents a more optimistic outlook for the U.S. housing market. The key takeaways include:
- For-sale inventory is now expected to increase by
14.5% year-over-year, a significant shift from the previously forecasted14% decline. - Existing home median sales price is projected to rise by
4.6% , contrary to the earlier prediction of a1.7% decrease. - Mortgage rates are forecasted to average
6.7% throughout the year, ending at6.3% , slightly lower than previous estimates. - Home sales are expected to see a marginal increase of
0.8% , reaching 4.1 million units.
These revisions suggest a more balanced market, with increasing inventory potentially easing some pressure on prices. However, the modest sales growth indicates that affordability challenges persist. Investors should monitor how these trends impact homebuilders, mortgage lenders and real estate services companies.
The updated forecast reveals interesting market dynamics:
- The "mortgage rate lock-in effect" is easing, encouraging more homeowners to list their properties.
- Sellers are showing patience, keeping homes on the market longer rather than delisting, contributing to inventory growth.
- Only 12 of the 50 largest markets have returned to or exceeded pre-pandemic inventory levels, indicating regional variations in recovery.
- The rental market remains steady, with new multi-family completions balancing elevated rental demand.
These trends suggest a gradual shift towards a more balanced market, potentially benefiting buyers in the latter part of 2024. However, regional disparities and the ongoing affordability challenges could create diverse investment opportunities across different market segments and geographies.
The forecast update highlights several macroeconomic factors influencing the housing market:
- Recent job growth and unemployment data suggest that Fed policy might be working "overtime," potentially leading to rate cuts.
- The resilient U.S. economy is supporting home price growth despite high mortgage rates.
- The upcoming NAR commission settlements and the presidential election are noted as wildcards, though their immediate impact on the housing market may be
These factors indicate a complex economic environment. While lower mortgage rates could boost buyer activity, the overall economic trajectory remains uncertain. Investors should closely monitor Fed policy decisions, employment data and potential policy changes following the election, as these could significantly impact housing market dynamics and related investment opportunities.
Buoyed by a Strong
"During the first half of this year, we have seen home buyers continue to remain sensitive to mortgage rates, and while home sellers are also affected, the binds of the mortgage rate lock-in effect appear to be loosening for some homeowners," said Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale. "These trends mean that home sales in 2024 will eke out only a small gain over 2023, but homebuyers have a fair amount to look forward to in the latter part of the year. Mortgage rates have finally begun to ease, and this trend is expected to continue as improving inflation enables the Fed to relax its tight policy, boosting homebuyer purchasing power. Furthermore, gains in the number of homes for sale mean that buyers have more negotiating power than they have had in recent years which should help buyers and sellers find the middle ground necessary for more sales. Fall has historically been a shoulder season for the housing market that benefits flexible buyers, and this year is setting up to be even more advantageous."
Lower Rates Finally Arrive
Earlier this month, mortgage rates dropped to their lowest rate since May 2023 and recent data trends, especially relating to job growth and unemployment are providing evidence that Fed policy is working–perhaps working overtime–and a rate cut, even a large one, may be appropriate. Therefore, our forecast for mortgage rates has been revised slightly lower. Our yearly mortgage rate average forecast is slightly lower at
Annual Home Sales Rebound-ish
Despite affordability headwinds persisting and mortgage rates hindering buying power, we have revised home sales upwards marginally to 4.1 million – an annual increase of .
Home Sale Prices Continue to Climb
Despite elevated mortgage rates, rising inventory, and homes sitting on the market longer, sales prices continue to rise. As a result, we've revised our initial forecast of a small price decline of
Mortgage Lock-In Effect is Easing Aiding Inventory Woes
One of the factors that has hampered home sales - an under-supply of homes for sale - has finally started to ease. We have seen substantial improvement in inventory in the first half of 2024, climbing by more than
The NAR Settlement and Election are Wildcards, But Housing Policy May Not Be So Wild
In the coming months, two major events are noteworthy, though their impact on the housing market could vary. The impact of the NAR commission settlements on the market and home prices are a wildcard and will depend equally on macroeconomic conditions and industry and consumer adaptations, with any changes likely to occur gradually over time. At the same time, we don't expect the wildcard election year to be that wild on the economy or housing market in 2024 since both the Republican and Democratic candidates have served in the White House recently. Markets should be able to handle whomever is elected, though acknowledging that the closer the race, the tougher it is to predict the outcome, which can spark volatility.
Rents Remain Largely Steady
Rents have remained largely steady in 2024 as the tug of war between rising multi-family completions boosting rental supply and elevated rental demand has resulted in a nationwide stalemate. We see demand from new households and continuing renters who might like to buy a home but find that today's rent versus buy scales are tipped too far in favor of renting, but rental supply has kept up as builders work through the backlog of multi-family units under construction.
Housing Indicator | Realtor.com 2024 Forecast REVISED | Realtor.com 2024 Forecast (Nov. 2023) | 2023 Historical Data |
Mortgage Rates | Average | Average | Average |
Existing Home Median Sales Price Appreciation | +4.6 % | -1.7 % | +1.1 % |
Existing Home Sales | + 4.1 million | + 4.07 million | - 4.09 million |
Existing Home For-Sale Inventory | +14.5 % | -14.0 % | |
Single-Family Home Housing Starts | + 1.0 million | + 0.9 million | - 0.9 million |
Homeownership Rate | 65.5 % | 65.8 % | 65.9 % |
Rent Change | -0.5 % | -0.2 % | +11.8 % |
About Realtor.com®
Realtor.com® is an open real estate marketplace built for everyone. Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real estate more than 25 years ago. Today, through its website and mobile apps, Realtor.com® is a trusted guide for consumers, empowering more people to find their way home by breaking down barriers, helping them make the right connections, and creating confidence through expert insights and guidance. For professionals, Realtor.com® is a trusted partner for business growth, offering consumer connections and branding solutions that help them succeed in today's on-demand world. Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. For more information, visit Realtor.com®.
Media Contact: Mallory Micetich, press@realtor.com
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SOURCE Realtor.com
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