KKR Releases 2025 Global Macro Outlook
KKR has released its 2025 Global Macro Outlook, maintaining a 'Glass Half Full' perspective for investors despite expectations of lower returns and increased volatility. The report, authored by Henry McVey, highlights several key factors supporting potential gains in 2025: stronger U.S. productivity, favorable technicals, robust nominal earnings growth, and lack of net issuance.
The outlook recommends investing in assets linked to nominal GDP, such as Infrastructure, Real Estate, and Asset-Based Finance. It identifies key mega-themes including improved capital efficiency, private sector market share gains, worker retraining, security initiatives, intra-Asia growth, retirement security, and AI/energy infrastructure investments.
The report emphasizes an asynchronous global recovery, with differing central bank policies across regions, and highlights the increasing importance of earnings growth over multiple expansion.
KKR ha pubblicato il suo Outlook Macro Globale per il 2025, mantenendo una prospettiva 'Mezza Bottiglia Piena' per gli investitori nonostante le aspettative di rendimenti più bassi e una maggiore volatilità. Il rapporto, redatto da Henry McVey, evidenzia diversi fattori chiave che supportano possibili guadagni nel 2025: una produttività statunitense più forte, tecniche favorevoli, una robusta crescita degli utili nominali e una mancanza di emissioni nette.
Le previsioni consigliano di investire in attività collegate al PIL nominale, come Infrastrutture, Immobiliare e Finanza Basata su Attivi. Identifica temi mega chiave tra cui miglioramento dell'efficienza del capitale, guadagni di quota di mercato nel settore privato, riqualificazione dei lavoratori, iniziative di sicurezza, crescita intra-asiatica, sicurezza pensionistica e investimenti in infrastrutture AI/energia.
Il rapporto sottolinea una ripresa globale asincrona, con politiche monetarie diverse tra le regioni, e mette in evidenza l'importanza crescente della crescita degli utili rispetto all'espansione dei multipli.
KKR ha publicado su Perspectiva Macro Global para 2025, manteniendo una perspectiva de 'Vaso Medio Lleno' para los inversores a pesar de las expectativas de rendimientos más bajos y una mayor volatilidad. El informe, escrito por Henry McVey, destaca varios factores clave que apoyan posibles ganancias en 2025: una mayor productividad en EE. UU., condiciones técnicas favorables, un robusto crecimiento de los beneficios nominales y la falta de emisiones netas.
El pronóstico recomienda invertir en activos vinculados al PIB nominal, como Infraestructura, Bienes Raíces y Finanzas Basadas en Activos. Identifica temas mega clave que incluyen una mejor eficiencia de capital, ganancias de participación de mercado en el sector privado, recualificación de trabajadores, iniciativas de seguridad, crecimiento intra-asiático, seguridad de jubilación e inversiones en infraestructura de IA/energía.
El informe enfatiza una recuperación global asincrónica, con políticas de bancos centrales diferentes en cada región, y destaca la creciente importancia del crecimiento de ganancias sobre la expansión de múltiplos.
KKR은 2025년 글로벌 매크로 전망을 발표하며, 낮은 수익률과 증가하는 변동성에 대한 기대에도 불구하고 투자자에게 '반쯤 담긴 유리'의 관점을 유지하고 있습니다. 헨리 맥베이(Henry McVey)가 작성한 이 보고서는 2025년 잠재적 이익을 지지하는 몇 가지 핵심 요인들을 강조합니다: 미국의 생산성 향상, 유리한 기술적 상황, 강력한 명목 이익 성장 및 순발행 부족입니다.
이번 전망은 인프라, 부동산 및 자산 기반 금융과 같은 명목 GDP에 연결된 자산에 대한 투자를 권장합니다. 또한 자본 효율성 개선, 민간 부문 시장 점유율 증가, 근로자 재훈련, 보안 이니셔티브, 아시아 내 성장, 퇴직 보장 및 AI/에너지 인프라 투자를 포함한 주요 메가 주제들을 식별합니다.
보고서는 지역별로 다른 중앙은행 정책이 있는 비동기적 글로벌 회복을 강조하며, 배수 확장보다 이익 성장의 중요성이 점점 증가하고 있음을 부각합니다.
KKR a publié son Outlook Macro Économique Mondial pour 2025, maintenant une perspective de 'Verre à Moitié Plein' pour les investisseurs malgré des attentes de rendements plus faibles et d'une volatilité accrue. Le rapport, rédigé par Henry McVey, met en lumière plusieurs facteurs clés soutenant des gains potentiels en 2025 : une productivité américaine plus forte, des conditions techniques favorables, une croissance robuste des bénéfices nominaux et l'absence d'émissions nettes.
Les perspectives recommandent d'investir dans des actifs liés au PIB nominal, tels que Infrastructure, Immobilier et Financement basé sur des actifs. Il identifie des méga-thèmes clés, notamment l'amélioration de l'efficacité du capital, les gains de part de marché du secteur privé, le recyclage des travailleurs, les initiatives de sécurité, la croissance intra-asiatique, la sécurité de la retraite et les investissements dans les infrastructures d'IA/énergie.
Le rapport souligne une reprise mondiale asynchrone, avec des politiques monétaires différentes selon les régions, et met en avant l'importance croissante de la croissance des bénéfices par rapport à l'expansion des multiples.
KKR hat seinen Global Macro Outlook 2025 veröffentlicht und behält trotz der Erwartungen an niedrigere Renditen und erhöhte Volatilität eine 'Das Glas ist halb voll'-Perspektive für Investoren bei. Der Bericht, verfasst von Henry McVey, hebt mehrere Schlüsselfaktoren hervor, die potenzielle Gewinne im Jahr 2025 unterstützen: eine stärkere Produktivität in den USA, günstige technische Bedingungen, robustes nominales Gewinnwachstum und ein Mangel an Nettopublikationen.
Die Aussichten empfehlen, in mit nominalem BIP verbundene Vermögenswerte wie Infrastruktur, Immobilien und assetbasierte Finanzierungen zu investieren. Er identifiziert wichtige Mega-Themen, darunter verbesserte Kapitaleffizienz, Zuwächse im Marktanteil des privaten Sektors, Schulungsmaßnahmen für Arbeitnehmer, Sicherheitsinitiativen, interasiatisches Wachstum, Altersvorsorge und Investitionen in KI/Energieinfrastruktur.
Der Bericht betont eine asynchrone globale Erholung mit unterschiedlichen geldpolitischen Maßnahmen in den verschiedenen Regionen und hebt die zunehmende Bedeutung des Wachstums der Unternehmensgewinne im Vergleich zur Multiplerweiterung hervor.
- Strong U.S. productivity growth supporting earnings and market performance
- Identified multiple growth opportunities in infrastructure, real estate, and asset-based finance
- Private sector expected to gain market share in key growth markets
- Robust nominal earnings growth projected
- Lower expected returns and increased volatility ahead
- Higher bar for achieving strong absolute returns
- Currency volatility risks due to tariff wars and fiscal imbalances
- Below consensus outlook for oil prices
Insights
The 2025 Global Macro Outlook from KKR presents strategic investment themes but lacks actionable financial metrics or specific investment allocations that would move markets. While the report outlines interesting macro perspectives on productivity, inflation and regional economic divergences, it's primarily a thematic overview rather than market-moving intelligence that would impact KKR's stock or create immediate trading opportunities.
The identified mega-themes like improved capital efficiency and private sector expansion align with KKR's business model but don't provide concrete details about deal pipelines, AUM targets, or expected returns that would influence valuation models. The outlook serves more as a marketing piece to demonstrate thought leadership rather than material information that would affect investment decisions.
This outlook document, while comprehensive in scope, represents standard practice for large asset managers and doesn't contain specific financial projections or strategic shifts that would materially impact KKR's business performance or stock price. The themes identified - from AI infrastructure to intra-Asian trade - are largely consensus views already priced into market expectations.
The lack of quantitative targets, specific investment commitments, or changes to KKR's investment strategy means this publication, while valuable for clients and market participants, doesn't constitute price-sensitive information that would influence trading decisions or require updates to financial models.
Henry McVey: The Glass is Still Half Full for Investors
McVey and his team retain a Glass Half Full mentality heading into 2025, though they believe the bar is now higher to achieve strong absolute returns. They also note that while investors should expect lower returns and more volatility, the combination of stronger
Against this backdrop, McVey and his team suggest that investors own more assets that are linked to nominal GDP, such as Infrastructure, Real Estate and Asset-Based Finance. They are also positive on investments linked to domestic consumption stories, control positions where operational improvements can drive robust growth, investments that stand to benefit from political changes, and the private sector, which is positioned to benefit from the general desire for “less government” amid rising deficits.
The following key points underpin the team’s latest thinking:
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Recent election outcomes around the world put an exclamation point on our Regime Change thesis for investing, which is driven by bigger deficits, heightened geopolitics, a messy energy transition, and stickier
U.S. inflation. - We envision a blurring of economics and national security across all regions, likely encouraging political leaders to develop ways to expand investment, including increased savings, more private sector involvement, and a focus on driving down the cost of capital.
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We are experiencing an asynchronous recovery. For the first time, the ECB is cutting earlier and faster than the Fed this cycle, while in
Asia , the Bank of Japan is raising rates. At the same time, Chinese bonds now yield less than those ofJapan . -
We finally believe that the more aggressive GDP and EPS growth estimates for the
U.S. by the sell-side to start the year will set a higher bar for an 'upside surprise' in 2025. In this context, we think earnings growth now matters more than multiple expansion. -
U.S. productivity is surging, elevating both earnings and growth. This backdrop should give a boost to theU.S. dollar as well asU.S. equity and credit markets again in 2025. - We are focused on currency volatility, as tariff wars and big fiscal imbalances could create volatility shocks that differ from recent cycles.
- We are below consensus on our near-term outlook for oil. At the same time, however, as AI scales, we believe energy security will become even more entwined with national security.
McVey and his team also identify the following key mega-themes that can serve as compelling investment opportunities in today’s more complicated environment:
- Improved Capital Efficiency – We’re seeing more companies shift from capital heavy to capital light. This playbook opens a major opportunity for credit providers to make a compelling economic rent by providing an ‘off ramp’ for the assets being sold.
- Private Sector Market Share Gainers – We believe the combination of rising deficits and the desire for ‘less’ government will lead to a larger private sector role in key growth markets. Areas such as digital infrastructure, space exploration, retirement savings, and defense are likely to see outcomes shaped by increased private investment.
- Worker Retraining/Productivity – We think the opportunity set for lifelong learning and worker retraining may be as large as it has ever been amid rapid technological changes and post-COVID educational disengagement.
- Security of Everything – We remain maximum bullish on this theme. Against a background of rising geopolitical tensions, cyberattacks, and shifting global supply chains, there is demand for resiliency in key inputs such as energy, data, transportation, and pharmaceuticals.
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Intra-Asia – We think
Asia is becoming moreAsia -centric, with increased trade within the region versus with developed markets in the West; we also see more countries in the region participating in Asia’s global growth engine. We’re focused on key areas including transportation assets, subsea cables, security, data/data centers, and energy transmission. - Demographic Challenges to Retirement Security – We are bullish on domestic retirement savings, especially as the working-age population is peaking in many parts of the world and more governments begin to appreciate the importance of keeping local flows in their own markets.
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AI/Energy Infrastructure — For AI to scale, massive investment will be required in the picks and shovels as well as the energy infrastructure required to support growth. We also expect more global expansion linked to AI in the coming years, especially in
Asia .
In addition to these insights and themes, the report details the GMAA team’s updated views on the geopolitical landscape, global economic forecasts, capital markets, interest rates, commodities, and asset allocation.
Links to access this report in full as well as an archive of Henry McVey's previous publications follow:
- To read the latest Insights, click here.
- For an archive of previous publications please visit https://www.kkr.com/insights.
About Henry McVey
Henry H. McVey joined KKR in 2011 and is Head of the Global Macro, Balance Sheet and Risk team. Mr. McVey also serves as Chief Investment Officer for the Firm’s Balance Sheet, oversees Firmwide Market Risk at KKR, and co-heads KKR’s Strategic Partnership Initiative. As part of these roles, he sits on the Firm’s Global Operating Committee and the Risk & Operations Committee. Prior to joining KKR, Mr. McVey was a Managing Director, Lead Portfolio Manager and Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation at Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM). Learn more about Mr. McVey here.
About KKR
KKR is a leading global investment firm that offers alternative asset management as well as capital markets and insurance solutions. KKR aims to generate attractive investment returns by following a patient and disciplined investment approach, employing world-class people, and supporting growth in its portfolio companies and communities. KKR sponsors investment funds that invest in private equity, credit and real assets and has strategic partners that manage hedge funds. KKR’s insurance subsidiaries offer retirement, life and reinsurance products under the management of Global Atlantic Financial Group. References to KKR’s investments may include the activities of its sponsored funds and insurance subsidiaries. For additional information about KKR & Co. Inc. (NYSE: KKR), please visit KKR’s website at www.kkr.com. For additional information about Global Atlantic Financial Group, please visit Global Atlantic Financial Group’s website at www.globalatlantic.com.
The views expressed in the report and summarized herein are the personal views of Henry McVey of KKR and do not necessarily reflect the views of KKR or the strategies and products that KKR manages or offers. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment, legal, tax or other advice nor is it to be relied on in making an investment decision or any other decision. This release is prepared solely for information purposes and should not be viewed as a current, past or future recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. This release contains forward-looking statements, which are based on beliefs, assumptions and expectations that may change as a result of many possible events or factors. If a change occurs, actual results may vary materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date such statements are made, and neither KKR nor Mr. McVey assumes any duty to update such statements except as required by law.
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Media:
Julia Kosygina or Lauren McCranie
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media@kkr.com
Source: KKR
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