Honeywell Forecast Shows Quick Rebound For Business Aviation As Flight Hours, Purchase Plans Grow
Honeywell's (NASDAQ: HON) 30th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook predicts up to 7,400 new business jet deliveries worth $238 billion from 2022 to 2031, marking a 1% increase in deliveries from last year. A significant rise in used jet purchase plans is noted, showing a 12% increase from the previous year. Business operators expect 10% more deliveries in 2022 and anticipate continued growth in business jet usage despite ongoing pandemic challenges. Key trends indicate a strong demand for larger-cabin jets and minimal COVID-19 impact on buying plans.
- 7,400 new business jet deliveries projected from 2022 to 2031 worth $238 billion.
- 12% increase in used jet purchase plans, reflecting strong market recovery.
- 2022 deliveries expected to be up 10% from 2021.
- 65% of surveyed operators anticipate increased business jet usage in 2022.
- 5% decline in five-year purchase plans for new jets due to COVID-19 uncertainty.
- European operators' new aircraft purchase plans decreased by 5 percentage points.
LAS VEGAS, Oct. 10, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Honeywell's (NASDAQ: HON) 30th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook forecasts up to 7,400 new business jet deliveries worth
"The increased demand for used jets is estimated at more than 6,500 units over the next five years, putting pressure on an already record low inventory and driving additional demand for new jets," said Heath Patrick, president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace. "Our latest operator survey results support continued private jet usage growth, as more than
Key findings in the 2021 Honeywell Global Business Aviation Outlook include:
- Purchase plans for used jets show an increase in this year's survey. Operators worldwide indicated that
28% of their fleet is expected to be replaced or expanded by used jets over the next five years, up 3 percentage points compared with survey results from 2020. Business jet deliveries in 2022 are expected to be up10% from 2021 in terms of units billed. - The longer-range forecast through 2031 projects a
3% average annual growth rate of deliveries in line with expected worldwide long-term economic growth. - Five-year purchase plans for new business jets are down 2 percentage points compared with last year's survey. This can be attributed to uncertainty around the COVID-19 Delta variant at the time of the survey. The decrease is driven by fewer replacements in the fifth year; however, fleet additions grew by 1 percentage point.
- The sharp increase in demand for used jets, coupled with a lower-than-ever inventory of used aircraft available for sale, will inevitably drive additional demand for new-build business jets. Among those with purchase plans of new business jets over the next five years,
29% of purchases are expected to occur in the next two years. This is just 1 percentage point lower than last year's survey. - Operators plan to make new jet purchases equivalent to about
14% of their fleets over the next five years as replacements or additions to their current fleet. - Larger-cabin, heavy aircraft classes are expected to account for more than
72% of all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years.
Minimal ongoing COVID-19 impact in 2021:
- 9 of 10 operators in the survey said their new or used jet buying plans have not been postponed by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Nearly
100% of 2021 respondents said that they had not cancelled and do not plan to cancel a delivery on a new aircraft. - Year to date, business aviation usage trends point to a nearly
50% increase in flight hours in 2021 versus 2020, roughly5% above 2019 (pre-COVID). 65% of respondents globally expect to operate their business jets more frequently in 2022 versus 2021.- 2021 survey respondents are not signaling sales of late-model aircraft due to COVID-19. Specifically, only
4% of all respondents in the survey are planning to sell one or more aircraft without replacement in the next five years compared with10% in last year's survey. - Very few respondents (
6% ) reported that conditions for their flight departments had worsened in 2021.
Breakdown by Region
North America – Compared with last year, five-year new aircraft acquisition plans in North America are down 3 percentage points as operators' cool expectations for the fifth year in the survey period. This is likely driven by the uncertainty caused by the Delta variant among smaller jet operators. Used aircraft purchase plans are up 3 percentage points.
- New jet purchase plans in North America are down
3% in this year's survey compared with last year. Over the next five years, at least13% of the fleet is expected to be replaced or supplemented with a new jet purchase. - About
35% of operators responding to the survey plan to schedule their new purchases within the first two years of the five-year horizon. This is 3 percentage points higher than in last year's survey, and above the worldwide average of29% . - Purchase plans for used jets are up 4 percentage points when compared with last year's survey and above historical averages.
- An estimated
63% of worldwide demand for new jets will come from North American operators over the next five years, down just 1 percentage point compared with last year's survey.
Europe – European operators' new aircraft purchase plans are down 5 percentage points year over year as the Delta variant forced governments to restrict travel across borders, creating uncertainty.
- Europe's purchase expectations decreased this year to roughly
19% of the global fleet, down 5 percentage points compared with last year's results. Europe's purchase expectations had been high in the past few years as operators refreshed an aging fleet. - About
23% of operators plan to schedule their new purchases within the next two years, in line with previous year's results and below the worldwide average of29% . - Aircraft replacement and expansion plans for used aircraft in Europe are the highest globally and in recent history, equivalent to
34% of their fleet, up 6 percentage points versus 2020. - Europe's share of global demand over the next five years is estimated to be
16% , 2 percentage points lower than last year.
Latin America – Purchase plans recovered to 2019 levels, up 6 percentage points versus last year.
- In Latin America,
21% of the fleet is expected to be replaced or supplemented with new jet purchases over the next five years, up from15% in last year's survey. - About
29% of this region's projected purchases are planned between 2021 and 2023, on par with the worldwide average. - Latin America will represent
5% of the total projected business jet demand over the next five years versus3% in last year's survey. The increase is likely due to a more positive economic outlook following last year's deep pessimism in the region.
Asia Pacific – Despite ongoing geopolitical and commercial tensions, purchase plans are up.
- Asia Pacific operators report plans to replace at least
15% of their jet fleets over the next five years with new jet purchases, up from14% in 2020's survey. APAC operators also report fleet expansion intentions for the first time in three years, equating to0.3% of the current fleet. - Based on the expressed level of purchase plans, Asia Pacific will represent a
12% share of global new jet demand over the next five years. - About
20% of respondents in Asia Pacific plan to schedule their new purchases within the first two years of the five-year horizon, compared with30% a year ago.
Middle East and Africa (MEA) – The survey marked a five-year low when it comes to purchase plans in 2021.
9% of respondents said they will replace or add to their fleet with a new jet purchase, down from16% last year.- About
13% of operators responding to the survey plan to schedule their new purchase within the first two years of the five-year horizon, down from46% a year ago. - The share of projected five-year global demand attributed to MEA remains at
4% , in line with the historical range of4% to6% .
Used Jets
- Plans to acquire used jets in the next five years increased by about 4 percentage points from last year's survey.
29% of used business jets will trade hands over the next five years, compared with a five-year projection of25% in 2020.
Making an Impact on Business Decisions
The Global Business Aviation Outlook reflects current operator concerns and also identifies longer-cycle trends that Honeywell uses in its own product decision process. The survey has helped identify opportunities for investments in flight-efficiency upgrades, expanded propulsion offerings, innovative safety products, services, upgrades, and enhanced aircraft connectivity offerings. The survey also informs Honeywell's business pursuit strategy and helps position the company consistently on high-value platforms in growth sectors.
Methodology
Honeywell's forecast methodology is based on multiple sources, including, but not limited to, macroeconomic analyses, original equipment manufacturers' production and development plans shared with the company, and expert deliberations from aerospace industry leaders. Honeywell also utilizes information gathered from interviews conducted during the forecasting cycle with over 1,522 nonfractional business jet operators worldwide. The survey sample is representative of the entire industry in terms of geography, operation and fleet composition. This comprehensive approach provides Honeywell with unique insights into operator sentiments, preferences and concerns, and provides considerable insight into product development needs and opportunities
About Honeywell
Honeywell Aerospace products and services are found on virtually every commercial, defense and space aircraft. The Aerospace business unit builds aircraft engines, cockpit and cabin electronics, wireless connectivity systems, mechanical components and more. Its hardware and software solutions create more fuel-efficient aircraft, more direct and on-time flights and safer skies and airports. For more information, visit www.honeywell.com or follow us at @Honeywell_Aero.
Honeywell (www.honeywell.com) is a Fortune 100 technology company that delivers industry specific solutions that include aerospace products and services; control technologies for buildings and industry; and performance materials globally. Our technologies help everything from aircraft, buildings, manufacturing plants, supply chains, and workers become more connected to make our world smarter, safer, and more sustainable. For more news and information on Honeywell, please visit www.honeywell.com/newsroom.
This release contains certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, that address activities, events or developments that we or our management intends, expects, projects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. Such statements are based upon certain assumptions and assessments made by our management in light of their experience and their perception of historical trends, current economic and industry conditions, expected future developments and other factors they believe to be appropriate. The forward-looking statements included in this release are also subject to a number of material risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to economic, competitive, governmental, and technological factors affecting our operations, markets, products, services and prices. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results, developments and business decisions may differ from those envisaged by such forward-looking statements. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our Form 10-K and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Contacts:
Media
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adam.kress@honeywell.com
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