Gevo Provides Business Update

Rhea-AI Summary

Gevo Inc (NASDAQ: GEVO) provided a comprehensive business update highlighting its path to positive run-rate Adjusted EBITDA in 2025. The company reported Q4 cash position of $259.0 million and detailed progress across multiple business segments:

The recently acquired Gevo North Dakota facility generated $150 million in revenue last fiscal year and is expected to contribute $30-60 million in annual Adjusted EBITDA. The facility features operational CCS technology, capturing 160,000+ tons of biogenic CO2 annually and producing 67 million gallons of low-carbon ethanol.

The company's RNG operations achieved 367,000 MMBtu production in 2024, up 17% year-over-year, with expected 2025 production exceeding 400,000 MMBtu. The ATJ-60 project in South Dakota received a $1.462 billion conditional loan commitment from the DOE, with potential to create 1,800 direct and indirect jobs.

Additional developments include growth in the Verity tracking platform, now covering 200,000+ acres, and advancement of the Ethanol to Olefins (ETO) technology through partnerships with Axens and LG Chem.

Positive

• Q4 cash position of $259.0 million
• North Dakota facility generating $150M revenue with $30-60M expected annual EBITDA
• RNG production increased 17% YoY to 367,000 MMBtu
• Secured $1.462B DOE conditional loan commitment for ATJ-60 project
• Verity platform doubled coverage to 200,000+ acres with 100% farmer retention

Negative

• Additional $40M spend required for ATJ-60 before financial close
• Ethanol 45Z tax credit expires in 2027 unless renewed

Insights

Financial Analyst

Gevo's business update reveals significant progress toward profitability in 2025 through a diversified portfolio of carbon-abatement assets. The company's $259 million cash position provides runway while it develops multiple revenue streams.

The recently acquired North Dakota facility, with $150 million in annual revenue and projected $30-60 million in annual Adjusted EBITDA, represents an immediate earnings engine. Its fully operational Class VI carbon capture and sequestration well, capturing 160,000+ tons of CO2 annually, positions Gevo perfectly for the 2025 ethanol 45Z tax credits. With an industry-leading carbon intensity score of 19-21 gCO2e/MJ, substantially below the approximately 50 gCO2e/MJ threshold, each gallon qualifies for premium pricing.

The RNG business shows operational improvements with 17% production growth in 2024 and projections exceeding 400,000 MMBtu in 2025. This segment alone is expected to generate $9-18 million in Adjusted EBITDA, benefiting from IRS approval for biogas 45Z tax credits and an exceptional -339 gCO2e/MJ carbon intensity score.

The $1.63 billion DOE conditional loan commitment for the ATJ-60 project indicates strong governmental support, though financial close requires completing due diligence and environmental reviews. The $40 million additional pre-close spending appears modest considering potential reimbursement at financial close.

Gevo's Verity SaaS platform has doubled its agricultural coverage to 200,000+ acres with 100% farmer retention, establishing a compelling data foundation for verifying carbon attributes. Meanwhile, technology partnerships with Axens and LG Chem for Ethanol-to-Olefins commercialization target massive markets without requiring significant capital deployment.

The company has strategically positioned itself at the intersection of renewable fuels, carbon capture, and agricultural technology, with multiple pathways to achieve positive run-rate Adjusted EBITDA in 2025.

Environmental Policy Specialist

Gevo's business update demonstrates how policy incentives are driving the economics of carbon abatement technologies. The company has strategically aligned its assets to capitalize on the 45Z tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act, which take effect in 2025.

The North Dakota facility represents an environmental milestone as one of only two operational ethanol plants with fully permitted Class VI carbon capture and sequestration in the United States. Its 19-21 gCO2e/MJ carbon intensity score is exceptional, far below typical ethanol production (~65-80 gCO2e/MJ). The statutory credit of $0.02 per gallon per carbon intensity point below 50 could generate approximately $0.60 per gallon in tax credits, substantially improving economics.

The RNG operation's carbon intensity score of -339 gCO2e/MJ is particularly notable. Negative carbon intensity scores reflect that the process removes more greenhouse gases than it creates, as capturing methane from agricultural waste prevents potent greenhouse gas emissions. This qualifies for premium pricing in low carbon fuel markets.

Gevo's Verity platform addresses a critical gap in verifiable carbon accounting, establishing a clear chain of custody for regenerative agricultural practices and carbon attributes. The 200,000+ acre coverage provides meaningful scale for demonstrating agricultural carbon reduction.

The DOE's conditional commitment of $1.63 billion for the ATJ-60 project indicates federal recognition of the strategic importance of sustainable aviation fuel production. The project's integration of food and fuel production addresses key policy priorities around energy security without compromising agricultural resources.

Gevo has effectively positioned itself to monetize carbon abatement across multiple interconnected sectors - transportation fuels, agricultural practices, and industrial carbon capture - creating a comprehensive approach to emissions reduction with diverse revenue streams supported by policy incentives.

ENGLEWOOD, Colo., March 07, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO) (“Gevo”, the “Company”, “we”, “us” or “our”), a leading developer of cost-effective, renewable hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals with reduced greenhouse gas emissions, today reiterated the substantial potential Adjusted EBITDA¹ growth we are targeting in 2025, and provided a business update. Gevo also announced that it ended the fourth quarter with cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of $259.0 million².

Business Update – Path to Positive Run-Rate Adjusted EBITDA¹

• Gevo North Dakota: Carbon Capture and Sequestration (“CCS”) and Low-Carbon Ethanol Assets generated $150 million in revenue in its last fiscal year³ and we expect it to immediately contribute $30 million to $60 million of Adjusted EBITDA¹ annually to Gevo’s carbon business. This facility in North Dakota, which was recently acquired from Red Trail Energy, LLC, is one of two low-carbon ethanol plants with operational CCS that exist today. The site has an operating, fully permitted Class VI CCS well, which captures over 160,000 tons of biogenic carbon dioxide annually; generates multiple times that amount in total carbon abatement; produces approximately 67 million gallons of low-carbon ethanol, including 2 million gallons of corn fiber ethanol with an ultra-low carbon intensity; and more than 230,000 tons of low-carbon animal feed and vegetable oil. As a result, this facility has one of the lowest carbon intensity scores in the industry, at 19 gCO2e/MJ (from British Columbia) or an estimated 21 gCO2e/MJ (under the Argonne-R&D-GREET model). We note that the ethanol 45Z tax credit, which takes effect in 2025 and expires in 2027 (unless renewed by legislation), provides a statutory $0.02 per gallon per carbon intensity point below approximately 50 gCO2e/MJ. In addition, we are developing an additional alcohol-to-jet (“ATJ”) project at this location for further future growth, leveraging our existing ATJ designs associated with the ATJ-60 project in South Dakota. The high quality carbon abatement credits generated at this plant are expected to further catalyze the development of the emerging market for carbon abatement products.
• Renewable Natural Gas (“RNG”): We have achieved excellent operational results that are expected to improve further in 2025 and generate meaningful Adjusted EBITDA¹. RNG produced in 2024 was 367,000 MMBtu, which was a 17% increase over the prior year, because of a successful gas upgrade capacity expansion. 2025 production is expected to further increase to over 400,000 MMBtu as a result of compressor and reliability upgrades. Our RNG facility has been approved by the Internal Revenue Service (“IRS”) to generate biogas 45Z tax credits. Based on the expected carbon intensity (“CI”) score for California LCFS of (339) gCO2e/MJ, a negative number, and depending on LCFS prices, monetization of the biogas 45Z tax credit, D3 RIN prices, and price of fossil based natural gas, we expect Adjusted EBITDA¹ of $9 – 18 million in 2025.
• Alcohol-to-Jet 60³ (“ATJ-60”) Project: The ATJ-60 project in Lake Preston, South Dakota continues to proceed towards financial close in 2025. In 2024, we received a conditional commitment for a loan guarantee with disbursements totaling $1.462 billion (excluding capitalized interest during construction) from the U.S. Department of Energy (“DOE”) Loan Programs Office (“LPO”) for our ATJ-60 project. With capitalized interest during construction, the DOE loan facility has a borrowing capacity of $1.63 billion. We are actively engaged with the DOE on the closing process for the conditional commitment. Our ATJ-60 project is expected to leverage American agriculture to produce both cost-effective fuels and food, which are integral for energy and food security of the United States. We believe our ATJ-60 project integrates seamlessly with existing energy infrastructure and catalyzes the development of the rural economy. The project is expected to generate 100 jobs at the facility, as well as 700 indirect positions in support, plus 1,000 high-paying trades jobs for the three years of construction⁵. This project is expected to have regional economic impact greater than $110 million per year. We are currently engaged with the DOE LPO on due diligence, definitive documentation, completing the environmental review process, and satisfaction of all conditions precedent that are required for financial close. We expect to incur $40 million of additional spend on ATJ-60 from January 1, 2025, until financial close. Our cumulative ATJ-60 development spending is expected to be partially reimbursed at project financial close. We may invest some or all of the reimbursed funds back into ATJ-60 as equity.
• Verity: We are continuing to grow our Verity business, delivering our tracking and tracing solution to the market, expanding the customer base, and achieving revenue. Verity is a software-as-a-service (“SaaS”) business that achieved its goal of first customer revenue in 2024 and our grower program has grown to more than 200,000 acres, which is more than double the acreage in the program since the second quarter of 2024, with 100% farmer retention. Verity is a digital measure, report and verify (“MRV”) software platform for end-to-end traceability of the regenerative attributes of agricultural and low-carbon fuel products. This enables producers and customers to measure and track those attributes and create value in the marketplace, where demand for regenerative agriculture and fuels is increasing but visibility is lacking. Verity currently has agreements with seven agriculture processing plant customers, including five ethanol plants and two soybean processing facilities, to assist in tracking environmental attributes of corn, ethanol, animal feed, corn oil, soybean oil and renewable diesel. We believe Verity can provide substantial value to growers and processors of a wide variety of agricultural products globally, in markets valued at billions of dollars.
• Ethanol to Olefins (“ETO”): We continue to advance our breakthrough, patented ETO technology. Our patented ETO process is designed to lower capital and operating costs of drop-in, bio-based hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals from ethanol, and adds to Gevo’s global portfolio of more than 300 patents, as well as proprietary processes and know-how concerning processes to convert carbohydrates to hydrocarbons. In October 2024, we signed a development agreement and licensed our ETO technology to Axens with the goal of accelerating the commercialization of our ETO technology for fuels. The alliance between Axens and Gevo was further broadened for ATJ commercialization in December 2024 under a new collaboration agreement. The goal of the alliance is to leverage the most advantaged technologies, which includes Axens Jetanol™ technology combined with Gevo’s plant designs, engineering, know-how, carbon tracking and complete business system. The alliance brings each partner’s complementary value propositions, real-world experience, substantially de-risked technologies, plant integrations, and pre-engineered systems to the ATJ space. We also extended a joint development agreement with LG Chem to accelerate the commercialization of bio-based chemicals using ETO. The global market for drop-in, low-carbon chemicals and materials is estimated to be $400 – 500 billion per year.

Management Comment

“Our strategic acquisition of Gevo North Dakota is transformative for our company,” commented Dr. Patrick Gruber, Gevo’s Chief Executive Officer. “The CCS and low-carbon ethanol provides us with an immediate pathway to monetize carbon abatement through the ethanol 45Z tax credit and by selling carbon abatement in the growing market and the available pore space provides additional opportunities for CCS expansion.”

“In addition, our RNG business is poised for significant growth as we secure a permanent CARB LCFS carbon intensity score and monetize the biogas 45Z tax credit. Taken together, we see a path to achieving a potential run-rate positive Adjusted EBITDA in 2025, even before considering our ATJ-60 project. This is based on the hundreds of thousands of tons of carbon abatement per year that we are currently generating from this diversified, low-carbon asset base,” Dr. Gruber continued.

Dr. Gruber added: “We are pleased that our DOE conditional commitment is progressing towards financial close. We are pleased to see that biofuels, ethanol, and aviation fuels are listed in President Trump’s Executive order “Declaring a National Energy Emergency”. Our ATJ-60 project, targeted for Lake Preston, South Dakota, is expected to create 100 direct jobs, and more than an estimated 700 indirect jobs. The project is expected to employ more than 1,000 construction workers for the three years needed to build the plant. It would draw corn from more than 230 farmers, and we would expect to pay farmers a premium for their regenerative agricultural practices.”

“We never lose sight that we expect that Gevo’s proprietary, integrated ATJ process can deliver sustainable aviation fuel (“SAF”) with production cost similar to jet fuel made from crude oil,” Dr. Gruber said. “But our process can do this while also eliminating the carbon emission footprint across the whole life cycle of the fuel. It’s about addressing a growing market need, where customers will pay for carbon abatement, in addition to the jet fuel.”

For more information on our business and plans, please refer to our updated corporate presentation, in the investor section of our website: www.gevo.com

About Gevo

Gevo is a next-generation diversified energy company committed to fueling America’s future with cost-effective, drop-in fuels that contribute to energy security, abate carbon, and strengthen rural communities to drive economic growth. Gevo’s innovative technology can be used to make a variety of renewable products, including synthetic aviation fuel ("SAF"), motor fuels, chemicals, and other materials that provide U.S.-made solutions. By investing in the backbone of rural America, Gevo’s business model includes developing, financing, and operating production facilities that create jobs and revitalize communities. Gevo owns and operates one of the largest dairy-based renewable natural gas (“RNG”) facilities in the United States, turning by-products into clean, reliable energy. We also operate an ethanol plant with an adjacent carbon capture and sequestration (“CCS”) facility, further solidifying America’s leadership in energy innovation. Additionally, Gevo owns the world’s first production facility for specialty alcohol-to-jet (“ATJ”) fuels and chemicals. Gevo’s market-driven “pay for performance” approach regarding carbon and other sustainability attributes, helps ensure value is delivered to our local economy. Through its Verity subsidiary, Gevo provides transparency, accountability, and efficiency in tracking, measuring and verifying various attributes throughout the supply chain. By strengthening rural economies, Gevo is working to secure a self-sufficient future and to make sure value is brought to the market.

For more information, see www.gevo.com.

Forward Looking Statements

This release contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the federal securities laws. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements, including statements related to the expected operation of Gevo North Dakota, the expected effect of the acquisition on Adjusted EBITDA, the expected annual Adjusted EBITDA from Gevo North Dakota, and the future prospects as a combined company, the expected CI score for our RNG project, the expected annual Adjusted EBITDA from the RNG project, the financing of the ATJ-60 Project, including the DOE conditional commitment, the expected economic impact of the ATJ-60 Project, the expected further spend on ATJ-60, the expected growth and economics of Verity, the technical advances of the ETO technology, the capabilities of Axens technologies, and the market for ETO technologies. These statements relate to analyses and other information, which are based on forecasts of future results or events and estimates of amounts not yet determinable. We claim the protection of The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 for all forward-looking statements in this release.

These forward-looking statements are identified by the use of terms and phrases such as “anticipate,” “assume,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” “goal,” “intend,” “plan,” “potential,” “predict,” “project,” “target” and similar terms and phrases or future or conditional verbs such as “could,” “may,” “should,” “will,” and “would.” However, these words are not the exclusive means of identifying such statements. Although we believe that our plans, intentions and other expectations reflected in or suggested by such forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure you that we will achieve those plans, intentions or expectations. All forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those that we expected.

Important factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from our expectations, or cautionary statements, include among others, the risk that anticipated benefits, including synergies, from the acquisition of Gevo North Dakota may not be fully realized or may take longer to realize than expected; changes in legislation or government regulations affecting the future operations of the acquired assets and Gevo’s other project; and other risk factors or uncertainties identified from time to time in Gevo’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). All written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to us, or persons acting on our behalf, are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements identified above and in the section entitled “Risk Factors” and elsewhere in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 as well as other cautionary statements that are made from time to time in our other SEC filings and public communications. You should evaluate all forward-looking statements made in this release in the context of these risks and uncertainties.

We caution you that the important factors referenced above may not reflect all of the factors that could cause actual results or events to differ from our expectations. In addition, we cannot assure you that we will realize the results or developments we expect or anticipate or, even if substantially realized, that they will result in the consequences or affect us or our operations in the way we expect. The forward-looking statements included in this release are made only as of the date hereof. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as otherwise required by law.

Media Contact
Heather Manuel
VP of Stakeholder Engagement & Partnerships
PR@gevo.com

Investor Contact
Eric Frey, PhD
Vice President of Corporate Development
IR@Gevo.com

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¹   Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure calculated by adding back depreciation and amortization, allocated intercompany expenses for shared service functions, and non-cash stock-based compensation to GAAP loss from operations, plus monetizable tax credits (if any) such as 45Q and 45Z.

²   Includes $69.6 million of restricted cash.

³   As reported in the SEC filings of the previous owner, Red Trail Energy, LLC, prior to Gevo’s acquisition of substantially all of its ethanol and CCS assets. Based on Fiscal Year ending September 30 under the previous owner.

⁴   Formerly known as our NZ-1 Project.

⁵   Based on a report by Charles River Associates, available on Gevo’s website.

FAQ

What is the expected EBITDA contribution from Gevo's North Dakota facility?

The North Dakota facility is expected to contribute $30-60 million in annual Adjusted EBITDA to Gevo's carbon business.

How many jobs will Gevo's ATJ-60 project in South Dakota create?

The project will create 100 direct facility jobs, 700 indirect positions, and 1,000 construction jobs over three years.

What is the current cash position of GEVO as of Q4?

Gevo ended the fourth quarter with $259.0 million in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash.

How much did Gevo's RNG production increase in 2024?

RNG production increased 17% to 367,000 MMBtu in 2024, with expected growth to over 400,000 MMBtu in 2025.

What is the size of the DOE loan commitment for GEVO's ATJ-60 project?

The DOE provided a conditional loan commitment of $1.462 billion, with total borrowing capacity of $1.63 billion including capitalized interest.