Forrester: US Online Sales To Reach Historic Levels This Holiday Season

Rhea-AI Summary

Forrester forecasts US online holiday sales to grow 24% year-over-year in 2020, reaching a historic $173 billion. This growth, from $139 billion in 2019, is driven by several factors:

• Limited stimulus fallout: High personal savings have mitigated potential declines.
• Strong online sales growth: E-commerce continues to thrive amid rising infection rates.
• Early holiday sales: Retailers have begun promotions earlier due to logistics concerns.
• Large players winning: Major retailers like Amazon and Walmart are expected to dominate revenue.

Positive

• US online holiday sales estimated at $173 billion in 2020, up from $139 billion in 2019, indicating strong market growth.
• Limited negative impact from the end of stimulus benefits due to a high personal savings rate.
• Early holiday sales promotions leading to increased consumer engagement.
• Large essential retailers like Amazon and Walmart benefiting from ongoing demand.

Negative

• None.

CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Nov. 18, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Forrester (Nasdaq: FORR) estimates that US online holiday sales will grow 24% year over year in 2020. According to a new forecast report, "US Online Holiday Sales Will Reach Historic Levels Despite Uncertainty From COVID-19," US online holiday sales will mirror the high growth trend that online retail has experienced since the start of the pandemic.

Forrester expects US online holiday sales to reach $173 billion this year, up from $139 million in 2019. The key drivers and trends behind the holiday forecast include:

• Limited stimulus fallout in the short term. When the stimulus benefits ended in July, many feared drastic retail fallout. However, a historically high personal savings rate over the past five months has limited those declines.
• Strong online sales growth. Over the past 10 years, e-commerce sales have been a major driver of growth for retailers during the holiday season. As infection rates continue to rise rapidly, retailers should expect continued online sales growth for the remainder of the year.
• Holiday sales starting earlier. High online demand, uncertainty around a second pandemic wave, and concerns about potential logistics issues have driven retailers to start offering deals earlier than ever. Additionally, Amazon Prime Day moved to mid-October this year, with Target, Walmart, and other retailers following suit, pulling holiday demand earlier this year.
• Large players continuing to win. Throughout the year, large essential players such as Amazon, Target, and Walmart reaped the benefits of remaining open during the pandemic. As we reach the holiday season, we expect large essential players to continue to pull in the most US holiday revenue.

"The pandemic continues to change consumer behavior, and we have seen a significant boost in online sales this year," said Sucharita Kodali, VP and principal analyst at Forrester. "We see this trend continuing throughout the 2020 holiday season and into 2021 as social distancing measures remain in place and limit the number of in-store shoppers. Retailers must continue to invest in omnichannel service and fulfillment capabilities to manage and meet consumer expectations."

Resources:

• Read Forrester's report "US Online Holiday Sales Will Reach Historic Levels Despite Uncertainty From COVID-19" (client access required).
• Explore Forrester's retail holiday blog series for the latest insights on the opportunities and challenges for retailers and consumer brands.

About Forrester

Forrester (NASDAQ: FORR) is one of the most influential research and advisory firms in the world. We help organizations grow through customer obsession, putting their customers at the center of leadership, strategy, and operations. Through Forrester's proprietary research, consulting, and events, business and technology leaders from around the globe are empowered to be bold at work — to navigate change and build customer-obsessed growth strategies. Our unique insights are grounded in annual surveys of more than 675,000 consumers, business leaders, and technology leaders worldwide; rigorous and objective methodologies, including Forrester Wave™ evaluations; and the shared wisdom of our most innovative clients. To learn more, visit Forrester.com.

CONTACT: Shweta Agarwal, sagarwal@forrester.com, (617) 613-6805

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SOURCE Forrester

FAQ

What is Forrester's estimate for US online holiday sales in 2020?

Forrester estimates US online holiday sales will reach $173 billion in 2020.

What factors are contributing to the growth of online holiday sales according to Forrester?

Key factors include limited stimulus fallout, strong online sales growth, early holiday sales, and large retailers continuing to win.

How much did US online holiday sales grow from 2019 to 2020?

US online holiday sales are expected to grow by 24%, increasing from $139 billion in 2019 to $173 billion in 2020.

Which retailers are expected to dominate holiday sales in 2020?

Large essential retailers, including Amazon, Target, and Walmart, are expected to pull in the most US holiday revenue.