Forrester: European E-Commerce Sales to Surpass €565 Billion by 2029
Forrester (FORR) projects significant e-commerce growth across Europe-5 (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK), with online sales expected to reach €565 billion by 2029, growing at a 7.8% CAGR from €389 billion in 2024. Online retail will represent 21% of total retail sales by 2029, up from 16% in 2024.
The UK leads in online retail, forecasted to reach €207 billion by 2029, followed by Germany (€146 billion) and France (€106 billion). By 2029, e-commerce will account for 32% of UK retail sales, 21% in Germany, and 17% in France. Meanwhile, offline retail growth is expected to slow to a 1.7% CAGR, compared to 8.9% in 2022.
Growth drivers include economic recovery, omnichannel strategies, price transparency, and cross-border marketplace expansion through platforms like AliExpress, SHEIN, and Temu. Non-essential retail sales are expected to rebound as inflation declines and consumer purchasing power improves.
Forrester (FORR) prevede una significativa crescita dell'e-commerce in Europa-5 (Francia, Germania, Italia, Spagna, Regno Unito), con vendite online che dovrebbero raggiungere €565 miliardi entro il 2029, crescendo a un CAGR del 7,8% rispetto ai €389 miliardi del 2024. Il commercio al dettaglio online rappresenterà il 21% delle vendite al dettaglio totali entro il 2029, in aumento rispetto al 16% del 2024.
Il Regno Unito guida il commercio al dettaglio online, con previsioni che raggiungono €207 miliardi entro il 2029, seguito dalla Germania (€146 miliardi) e dalla Francia (€106 miliardi). Entro il 2029, l'e-commerce dovrebbe rappresentare il 32% delle vendite al dettaglio nel Regno Unito, il 21% in Germania e il 17% in Francia. Nel frattempo, si prevede che la crescita del commercio al dettaglio offline si attenui a un CAGR dell'1,7%, rispetto all'8,9% del 2022.
I fattori di crescita includono la ripresa economica, strategie omnicanale, trasparenza dei prezzi e l'espansione dei marketplace transfrontalieri attraverso piattaforme come AliExpress, SHEIN e Temu. Si prevede che le vendite al dettaglio non essenziali rimbalzeranno con la diminuzione dell'inflazione e il miglioramento del potere d'acquisto dei consumatori.
Forrester (FORR) proyecta un crecimiento significativo del comercio electrónico en Europa-5 (Francia, Alemania, Italia, España, Reino Unido), con ventas en línea que se espera alcancen €565 mil millones para 2029, creciendo a una CAGR del 7.8% desde los €389 mil millones en 2024. El comercio minorista en línea representará el 21% de las ventas minoristas totales para 2029, en comparación con el 16% en 2024.
El Reino Unido lidera el comercio minorista en línea, con una previsión de alcanzar €207 mil millones para 2029, seguido por Alemania (€146 mil millones) y Francia (€106 mil millones). Para 2029, se espera que el comercio electrónico represente el 32% de las ventas minoristas en el Reino Unido, el 21% en Alemania y el 17% en Francia. Mientras tanto, se espera que el crecimiento del comercio minorista offline se desacelere a una CAGR del 1.7%, en comparación con el 8.9% en 2022.
Los impulsores del crecimiento incluyen la recuperación económica, las estrategias omnicanal, la transparencia de precios y la expansión del mercado transfronterizo a través de plataformas como AliExpress, SHEIN y Temu. Se espera que las ventas minoristas no esenciales se recuperen a medida que disminuya la inflación y mejore el poder adquisitivo de los consumidores.
Forrester (FORR)는 유럽-5 (프랑스, 독일, 이탈리아, 스페인, 영국)에서 전자상거래의 상당한 성장을 예상하며, 온라인 판매가 2029년까지 €5650억에 이를 것으로 전망하고 있습니다. 이는 2024년 €3890억에서 CAGR 7.8%로 성장하는 것입니다. 온라인 소매는 2029년까지 전체 소매 판매의 21%를 차지할 것으로, 2024년의 16%에서 증가합니다.
영국은 온라인 소매에서 선두를 차지하고 있으며, 2029년에는 €2070억에 이를 것으로 예측됩니다. 이어서 독일(€1460억)과 프랑스(€1060억)가 뒤따릅니다. 2029년까지 전자상거래는 영국 소매 판매의 32%, 독일의 21%, 프랑스의 17%를 차지할 것으로 보입니다. 한편, 오프라인 소매 성장률은 2022년 8.9%에서 1.7%로 둔화될 것으로 예상됩니다.
성장 요인으로는 경제 회복, 옴니채널 전략, 가격 투명성, AliExpress, SHEIN, Temu와 같은 플랫폼을 통한 국경을 초월한 시장 확장이 포함됩니다. 비필수 소매 판매는 인플레이션 하락과 소비자의 구매력 향상으로 회복될 것으로 예상됩니다.
Forrester (FORR) prévoit une croissance significative du commerce électronique en Europe-5 (France, Allemagne, Italie, Espagne, Royaume-Uni), avec des ventes en ligne qui devraient atteindre 565 milliards d'euros d'ici 2029, avec un CAGR de 7,8 % par rapport à 389 milliards d'euros en 2024. Le commerce de détail en ligne représentera 21 % des ventes de détail totales d'ici 2029, contre 16 % en 2024.
Le Royaume-Uni est en tête du commerce de détail en ligne, avec une prévision atteignant 207 milliards d'euros d'ici 2029, suivi de l'Allemagne (146 milliards d'euros) et de la France (106 milliards d'euros). D'ici 2029, le commerce électronique devrait représenter 32 % des ventes au détail au Royaume-Uni, 21 % en Allemagne et 17 % en France. Pendant ce temps, la croissance du commerce de détail hors ligne devrait ralentir à un CAGR de 1,7 %, contre 8,9 % en 2022.
Les moteurs de croissance comprennent la reprise économique, les stratégies omnicanales, la transparence des prix et l'expansion des places de marché transfrontalières via des plateformes telles qu'AliExpress, SHEIN et Temu. Les ventes de détail non essentielles devraient rebondir à mesure que l'inflation diminue et que le pouvoir d'achat des consommateurs s'améliore.
Forrester (FORR) prognostiziert ein signifikantes Wachstum des E-Commerce in Europa-5 (Frankreich, Deutschland, Italien, Spanien, Großbritannien), wobei der Online-Umsatz bis 2029 voraussichtlich €565 Milliarden erreichen wird, mit einem CAGR von 7,8% im Vergleich zu €389 Milliarden im Jahr 2024. Der Online-Einzelhandel wird bis 2029 21% des gesamten Einzelhandelsumsatzes ausmachen, gegenüber 16% im Jahr 2024.
Das Vereinigte Königreich führt den Online-Einzelhandel an, mit einer Prognose von €207 Milliarden bis 2029, gefolgt von Deutschland (€146 Milliarden) und Frankreich (€106 Milliarden). Bis 2029 wird der E-Commerce voraussichtlich 32% des Einzelhandelsumsatzes im Vereinigten Königreich, 21% in Deutschland und 17% in Frankreich ausmachen. In der Zwischenzeit wird ein langsameres Wachstum des stationären Einzelhandels mit einem CAGR von 1,7% im Vergleich zu 8,9% im Jahr 2022 erwartet.
Zu den Wachstumstreibern zählen die wirtschaftliche Erholung, Omnichannel-Strategien, Preistransparenz und die grenzüberschreitende Marktexpansion über Plattformen wie AliExpress, SHEIN und Temu. Der Umsatz im nicht lebensnotwendigen Einzelhandel wird voraussichtlich steigen, da die Inflation zurückgeht und die Kaufkraft der Verbraucher steigt.
- Projected 7.8% CAGR in e-commerce sales across Europe-5 (2024-2029)
- Online sales expected to reach €565 billion by 2029, up from €389 billion in 2024
- E-commerce market share to increase from 16% to 21% of total retail sales by 2029
- Strong growth in key markets: UK (€207B), Germany (€146B), France (€106B) by 2029
- Significant slowdown in offline retail growth to 1.7% CAGR, down from 8.9% in 2022
Insights
This comprehensive forecast demonstrates Forrester's continued leadership in digital market research, highlighting several key business implications:
The projected 7.8% CAGR in European e-commerce, reaching
Three critical insights emerge for investors:
- The forecast's granular country-level analysis showcases Forrester's deep market intelligence capabilities, likely strengthening their competitive position against rivals like Gartner and IDC.
- The identification of cross-border marketplace expansion (AliExpress, SHEIN, Temu) signals potential consulting opportunities as retailers seek guidance on digital strategy and competitive positioning.
- The emphasis on omnichannel strategies and customer experience aligns perfectly with Forrester's consulting services portfolio, potentially driving increased demand for their advisory services.
The research's focus on emerging trends - including marketplace dynamics and digital adoption patterns - suggests Forrester maintains strong analytical capabilities in high-growth segments. This positions them well for capturing consulting opportunities as European retailers invest in digital transformation initiatives.
The comprehensive nature of this forecast - covering five major economies with detailed sector analysis - reinforces Forrester's market position as a premier research firm, potentially supporting their research subscription revenue stream and consulting engagements in the European market.
Reversing the post-pandemic trend of in-store buying, e-commerce sales are predicted to grow
According to Forrester’s
Highlights from the report include:
Total Retail Sales
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Germany leads total retail sales in theEurope -5 region with retail sales forecasted to reach€693 billion by 2029. In theUK , retail sales will reach£552 billion (€649 billion ) in 2029, and inFrance it will reach€616 billion .
E-Commerce Sales
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The
UK dominates online retail with projected sales of£176 billion (€207 billion ) by 2029. That compares to£130 billion (€152 billion ) in 2024. InGermany , online retail sales are predicted to reach€146 billion by 2029, up from€97 billion in 2024. InFrance , online sales are forecasted at€106 billion in 2029, up from€73 billion in 2024.
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By 2029, e-commerce will account for a significant portion of retail sales across
Europe -5. TheUK is projected to lead among the five markets, with e-commerce making up32% of total retail sales in 2029, up from27% in 2024.Germany will see an increase from16% of retail sales in 2024 to21% in 2029, whileFrance is expected to grow from14% to17% over the same period.
E-Commerce Trends And Drivers
- Non-essential retail sales will rebound with declining inflation and improved economic conditions. Categories including fashion and consumer electronics are expected to see renewed online growth as price-conscious consumers regain purchasing power.
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Emerging online shoppers and cross-border e-commerce platforms will further fuel digitisation. With platforms including AliExpress, SHEIN, and Temu increasing their presence, the
Europe -5 region is becoming a global hub for marketplace-driven growth.
“The growth of online sales is reshaping the retail landscape, giving businesses opportunities to expand their customer base by offering more convenience and delivering tailored shopping experiences,” said Jitender Miglani, principal forecast analyst at Forrester. “European retailers should consider investing in advanced digital platforms to adopt omnichannel strategies to meet growing demand online. Getting customer experience right in both online and offline realms will dictate market dominance in the next decade.”
Resources:
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Read Forrester’s report,
Europe -5 Online Retail Forecast, 2024 To 2029 (client access required). -
Learn more about Forrester’s
Europe -5 online retail forecast for 2024 to 2029, in this blog.
About Forrester
Forrester (Nasdaq: FORR) is one of the most influential research and advisory firms in the world. We empower leaders in technology, customer experience, digital, marketing, sales, and product functions to be bold at work and accelerate growth through customer obsession. Our unique research and continuous guidance model helps executives and their teams achieve their initiatives and outcomes faster and with confidence. To learn more, visit Forrester.com.
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Press Contact
Hannah Segvich
hsegvich@forrester.com
Source: Forrester
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