Overall Housing Sentiment Ticks Higher Despite Consumers' Growing Affordability Concerns
Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased 0.3 points to 73.4 in January, showing a slight recovery after December's decline. The increase was driven by improved consumer optimism toward homebuying and home-selling conditions, along with higher expectations for home price appreciation.
However, consumer optimism about mortgage rates declined significantly, with a 13-percentage-point drop in those expecting rates to decrease. Additionally, 65% of consumers now expect rental prices to increase, up 8 percentage points from December.
Key findings include: unchanged sentiment about buying homes (22% good time, 78% bad time), stable selling conditions (63% good time, 36% bad time), increased home price rise expectations (43%, up from 38%), and decreased mortgage rate optimism. Fannie Mae forecasts mortgage rates to end 2025 around 6.5%, with multifamily rents expected to grow between 2.0% and 2.5% this year.
L'Indice di Sentiment per l'Acquisto di Casa (HPSI) di Fannie Mae è aumentato di 0,3 punti a 73,4 a gennaio, mostrando un leggero recupero dopo il calo di dicembre. L'aumento è stato guidato da un miglioramento dell'ottimismo dei consumatori riguardo alle condizioni di acquisto e vendite di case, insieme a aspettative più elevate per l'apprezzamento dei prezzi delle case.
Tuttavia, l'ottimismo dei consumatori riguardo ai tassi ipotecari è diminuito significativamente, con un calo di 13 punti percentuali di coloro che si aspettavano una diminuzione dei tassi. Inoltre, il 65% dei consumatori ora prevede un aumento dei prezzi degli affitti, in aumento di 8 punti percentuali rispetto a dicembre.
I risultati chiave includono: sentiment invariato riguardo all'acquisto di case (22% momento favorevole, 78% momento sfavorevole), condizioni di vendita stabili (63% momento favorevole, 36% momento sfavorevole), aumento delle aspettative sui prezzi delle case (43%, in crescita rispetto al 38%), e ottimismo diminuito sui tassi ipotecari. Fannie Mae prevede che i tassi ipotecari termineranno il 2025 intorno al 6,5%, con gli affitti multifamiliari che dovrebbero crescere tra il 2,0% e il 2,5% quest'anno.
El Índice de Sentimiento de Compra de Viviendas (HPSI) de Fannie Mae aumentó 0.3 puntos a 73.4 en enero, mostrando una ligera recuperación tras la caída de diciembre. El aumento fue impulsado por una mejora en el optimismo de los consumidores hacia las condiciones de compra y venta de viviendas, además de mayores expectativas de apreciación del precio de las viviendas.
Sin embargo, el optimismo de los consumidores sobre las tasas hipotecarias disminuyó significativamente, con una caída de 13 puntos porcentuales en quienes esperan que las tasas disminuyan. Además, el 65% de los consumidores ahora espera que los precios de alquiler aumenten, un incremento de 8 puntos porcentuales desde diciembre.
Los hallazgos clave incluyen: sentimiento sin cambios sobre la compra de viviendas (22% buen momento, 78% mal momento), condiciones de venta estables (63% buen momento, 36% mal momento), aumento de las expectativas de aumento de precios de viviendas (43%, subió del 38%), y disminución del optimismo sobre las tasas hipotecarias. Fannie Mae pronostica que las tasas hipotecarias terminarán 2025 alrededor del 6.5%, con los alquileres multifamiliares que se espera que crezcan entre un 2.0% y un 2.5% este año.
팬니 메이의 주택 구매 감정지수(HPSI)는 1월에 0.3포인트 상승하여 73.4를 기록하며 12월의 하락세에서 약간의 회복세를 보였습니다. 이 증가는 주택 구매와 판매 조건에 대한 소비자의 낙관론이 개선되고 주택 가격 상승에 대한 기대가 높아진 데 기인했습니다.
그러나 주택담보대출 금리에 대한 소비자의 낙관론은 크게 감소하여, 금리가 하락할 것이라고 기대하는 비율이 13%포인트 감소했습니다. 또한 65%의 소비자는 이제 임대료가 상승할 것으로 예상하고 있으며, 이는 12월보다 8%포인트 증가한 수치입니다.
주요 발견사항은 다음과 같습니다: 주택 구매에 대한 감정 변화 없음 (22% 좋은 시기, 78% 나쁜 시기), 안정적인 판매 조건 (63% 좋은 시기, 36% 나쁜 시기), 주택 가격 상승 기대 증가 (43%, 38%에서 상승) 및 주택담보대출 금리에 대한 낙관론 감소. 팬니 메이는 2025년 말에 주택담보대출 금리가 약 6.5%에 이를 것으로 예상하며, 다세대 주택 임대료는 올해 2.0%와 2.5% 사이에서 증가할 것으로 예상하고 있습니다.
L'Indice de Sentiment d'Achat de Maison (HPSI) de Fannie Mae a augmenté de 0,3 point pour atteindre 73,4 en janvier, montrant une légère reprise après la baisse de décembre. Cette augmentation a été alimentée par une amélioration de l'optimisme des consommateurs concernant les conditions d'achat et de vente de maisons, ainsi que par des attentes plus élevées en matière d'appréciation des prix des maisons.
Cependant, l'optimisme des consommateurs concernant les taux hypothécaires a fortement diminué, avec une baisse de 13 points de pourcentage parmi ceux s'attendant à une baisse des taux. De plus, 65 % des consommateurs s'attendent désormais à une augmentation des prix des loyers, soit une hausse de 8 points de pourcentage par rapport à décembre.
Les principales conclusions incluent : un sentiment inchangé concernant l'achat de maisons (22 % bon moment, 78 % mauvais moment), des conditions de vente stables (63 % bon moment, 36 % mauvais moment), des attentes en hausse concernant l'augmentation des prix des maisons (43 %, en hausse par rapport à 38 %), et une diminution de l'optimisme concernant les taux hypothécaires. Fannie Mae prévoit que les taux hypothécaires se termineront en 2025 autour de 6,5 %, avec des loyers multifamiliaux devant croître entre 2,0 % et 2,5 % cette année.
Der Kaufgefühl-Index (HPSI) von Fannie Mae stieg im Januar um 0,3 Punkte auf 73,4 und zeigt eine leichte Erholung nach dem Rückgang im Dezember. Der Anstieg wurde von einem verbesserten Verbrauchervertrauen hinsichtlich der Bedingungen für den Kauf und Verkauf von Häusern sowie von höheren Erwartungen hinsichtlich der Wertsteigerung von Immobilien angetrieben.
Jedoch sank das Verbrauchervertrauen in Bezug auf Hypothekenzinsen erheblich, mit einem Rückgang von 13 Prozentpunkten bei denen, die einen Rückgang der Zinsen erwarten. Darüber hinaus rechnen nun 65 % der Verbraucher damit, dass die Mietpreise steigen werden, was einem Anstieg von 8 Prozentpunkten im Vergleich zu Dezember entspricht.
Wesentliche Ergebnisse sind: unverändertes Gefühl beim Kauf von Häusern (22 % guter Zeitpunkt, 78 % schlechter Zeitpunkt), stabile Verkaufsbedingungen (63 % guter Zeitpunkt, 36 % schlechter Zeitpunkt), gestiegene Erwartungen hinsichtlich der Preissteigerungen von Immobilien (43 %, von 38 % gestiegen) und gesunkenes Vertrauen in die Hypothekenzinsen. Fannie Mae prognostiziert, dass die Hypothekenzinsen Ende 2025 bei etwa 6,5 % liegen werden, während für Mehrfamilienmieten in diesem Jahr ein Anstieg von 2,0 % bis 2,5 % erwartet wird.
- HPSI increased 0.3 points to 73.4, up 2.7 points year-over-year
- Home price expectations improved with net share increasing 9 percentage points
- Household income stability reached a new survey high at 73%
- Consumer optimism about mortgage rates declined 13 percentage points
- 78% believe it's a bad time to buy a home
- 65% expect rental prices to increase, up 8 percentage points
- Mortgage rates expected to remain elevated around 6.5% through 2025
Sharply Higher Share of Survey Respondents Expects Rent Prices to Rise
"Consumers seem increasingly pessimistic that housing affordability conditions will improve across the board, as a growing share expects home prices, rent prices, and mortgage rates will all go up," said Kim Betancourt, Vice President of Multifamily Economics and Strategic Research. "The lower optimism toward the mortgage rate outlook was largely expected, as rates have continued to stay elevated and even crossed the
Betancourt continued: "On the rental side, consumers have indicated a sharply growing expectation over the past two months that rent prices will increase. This mirrors our expectation that multifamily rents will grow between
Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights
Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased 0.3 points in January to 73.4. The HPSI is up 2.7 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.
- Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home (
22% ) and the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy (78% ) both stayed the same from last month. The net share of those who say it is a good time to buy increased 2 percentage points month over month to -55% . - Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home (
63% ) and the percentage who say it's a bad time to sell (36% ) both remained unchanged month over month. The net share of those who say it is a good time to sell increased 1 percentage point month over month to28% . - Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased from
38% to43% , while the percentage who say home prices will go down decreased from27% to22% . The share who think home prices will stay the same decreased from35% to34% . As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased 9 percentage points month over month to20% . - Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from
42% to35% , while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from25% to32% . The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same increased from32% to33% . As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months decreased 13 percentage points month over month to3% . - Job Loss Concern: The percentage of employed respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months increased from
77% to78% , while the percentage who say they are concerned stayed at22% . As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job increased 2 percentage points month over month to56% . - Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago remained at
17% , while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower decreased from11% to9% . The percentage who say their household income is about the same increased from70% to73% , a new survey high. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased 2 percentage points month over month to8% .
About Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index
The Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) distills information about consumers' home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers' current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision-making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers' evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher or lower than they were a year earlier.
About Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey
The National Housing Survey (NHS) is a monthly attitudinal survey, launched in 2010, which polls a representative sample of adult household financial decision makers in
Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to support the housing market. The January 2025 National Housing Survey was conducted between January 2, 2025, and January 21, 2025. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. The latest NHS was fielded exclusively through AmeriSpeak®, NORC at the University of
Detailed HPSI & NHS Findings
For detailed findings from the Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results.
To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.
About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit: fanniemae.com | X (formerly Twitter) | Facebook | LinkedIn | Instagram | YouTube | Blog
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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group or survey respondents included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group or survey respondents as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
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