Home Price Growth Reaccelerates in Fourth Quarter
Fannie Mae's Home Price Index (FNM-HPI) shows single-family home prices increased 5.8% year-over-year in Q4 2024, accelerating from Q3's revised 5.4% growth. Quarterly prices rose 1.7% seasonally adjusted, up from Q3's 1.2%, while non-seasonally adjusted prices increased 0.3%.
The housing market faces challenges with historically low inventories due to the 'lock-in effect.' Mortgage rates, after reaching around 6.1%, are approaching 7%, further reducing homeowners' motivation to move. According to Fannie Mae's Chief Economist Mark Palim, 2025's housing market faces a complex situation where lower mortgage rates are needed to increase housing supply, but this could simultaneously boost demand from first-time homebuyers, potentially driving prices even higher.
L'Indice dei Prezzi delle Case di Fannie Mae (FNM-HPI) mostra che i prezzi delle case unifamiliari sono aumentati del 5,8% rispetto all'anno precedente nel quarto trimestre del 2024, accelerando rispetto alla crescita revisionata del 5,4% del terzo trimestre. I prezzi trimestrali sono aumentati del 1,7% in base ai dati stagionalmente aggiustati, in rialzo rispetto all'1,2% del terzo trimestre, mentre i prezzi non aggiustati per la stagionalità sono aumentati dello 0,3%.
Il mercato immobiliare affronta sfide a causa di inventari storicamente bassi dovuti all'effetto 'lock-in'. I tassi ipotecari, dopo aver raggiunto circa il 6,1%, si stanno avvicinando al 7%, riducendo ulteriormente la motivazione dei proprietari a trasferirsi. Secondo il Chief Economist di Fannie Mae, Mark Palim, il mercato immobiliare del 2025 affronta una situazione complessa in cui tassi ipotecari più bassi sono necessari per aumentare l'offerta di case, ma questo potrebbe simultaneamente stimolare la domanda da parte di acquirenti alla loro prima esperienza, portando potenzialmente a un ulteriore aumento dei prezzi.
El Índice de Precios de Viviendas de Fannie Mae (FNM-HPI) muestra que los precios de las viviendas unifamiliares aumentaron un 5,8% interanual en el cuarto trimestre de 2024, acelerándose desde el crecimiento revisado del 5,4% del tercer trimestre. Los precios trimestrales aumentaron un 1,7% ajustados estacionalmente, desde el 1,2% del tercer trimestre, mientras que los precios no ajustados estacionalmente aumentaron un 0,3%.
El mercado de la vivienda enfrenta desafíos debido a inventarios históricamente bajos causados por el efecto de 'bloqueo'. Las tasas hipotecarias, después de alcanzar alrededor del 6,1%, se están acercando al 7%, lo que reduce aún más la motivación de los propietarios para mudarse. Según el Economista Jefe de Fannie Mae, Mark Palim, el mercado de la vivienda en 2025 se enfrenta a una situación compleja donde se necesitan tasas hipotecarias más bajas para aumentar la oferta de viviendas, pero esto podría al mismo tiempo impulsar la demanda de compradores primerizos, lo que potencialmente llevaría a un aumento aún mayor de los precios.
팬니 메이의 주택 가격 지수(FNM-HPI)에 따르면, 단독주택 가격은 2024년 4분기에 전년 대비 5.8% 증가했으며, 이는 3분기 수정된 5.4% 증가율에서 가속화된 것입니다. 분기별 가격은 계절 조정 후 1.7% 상승하여 3분기의 1.2%에서 상승했으며, 비계절 조정 가격은 0.3% 증가했습니다.
주택 시장은 '고착 효과'로 인해 역사적으로 낮은 재고로 인해 어려움에 직면해 있습니다. 모기지 금리는 약 6.1%에 도달한 후 7%에 가까워지고 있어, 주택 소유자의 이사를 위한 동기를 더욱 줄이고 있습니다. 팬니 메이의 수석 경제학자 마크 팔림에 따르면, 2025년의 주택 시장은 주택 공급을 증가시키기 위해서는 낮은 모기지 금리가 필요하나, 이는 동시에 최초 주택 구매자의 수요를 증가시켜 가격을 더욱 상승시킬 가능성이 있는 복잡한 상황에 직면해 있습니다.
L'indice des prix des maisons de Fannie Mae (FNM-HPI) indique que les prix des maisons unifamiliales ont augmenté de 5,8% d'une année sur l'autre au quatrième trimestre de 2024, accélérant ainsi par rapport à la croissance revue de 5,4% au troisième trimestre. Les prix trimestriels ont augmenté de 1,7% après ajustement saisonnier, contre 1,2% au troisième trimestre, tandis que les prix non ajustés saisonnièrement ont augmenté de 0,3%.
Le marché immobilier fait face à des défis en raison d'inventaires histoirement bas causés par l'effet de 'verrouillage'. Les taux hypothécaires, après avoir atteint environ 6,1%, approchent du 7%, réduisant encore la motivation des propriétaires à déménager. Selon le chef économiste de Fannie Mae, Mark Palim, le marché immobilier de 2025 est confronté à une situation complexe où des taux hypothécaires plus bas sont nécessaires pour augmenter l'offre de logements, mais cela pourrait simultanément stimuler la demande des primo-accédants, risquant ainsi d'augmenter encore davantage les prix.
Der Hauspreisindex von Fannie Mae (FNM-HPI) zeigt, dass die Preise für Einfamilienhäuser im vierten Quartal 2024 im Jahresvergleich um 5,8% gestiegen sind, was eine Beschleunigung im Vergleich zum revidierten Wachstum von 5,4% im dritten Quartal darstellt. Die vierteljährlichen Preise stiegen saisonbereinigt um 1,7%, was einen Anstieg gegenüber den 1,2% im dritten Quartal darstellt, während die unbereinigten Preise um 0,3% zugenommen haben.
Der Wohnungsmarkt sieht sich Herausforderungen aufgrund von historisch niedrigen Beständen gegenüber, die durch den 'Lock-in-Effekt' verursacht werden. Die Hypothekenzinsen, die etwa 6,1% erreichten, nähern sich 7%, was die Motivation der Hausbesitzer, umzuziehen, weiter verringert. Laut dem Chefökonom von Fannie Mae, Mark Palim, steht der Wohnungsmarkt 2025 vor einer komplexen Situation, in der niedrigere Hypothekenzinsen erforderlich sind, um das Wohnungsangebot zu erhöhen, dies jedoch gleichzeitig die Nachfrage von Erstkäufern ankurbeln und die Preise möglicherweise weiter nach oben treiben könnte.
- Home price growth accelerated to 5.8% YoY in Q4 2024
- Quarterly price growth increased to 1.7% (seasonally adjusted) from 1.2% in Q3
- Housing inventory remains historically low
- Mortgage rates approaching 7%, worsening affordability
- Lock-in effect continuing to restrict housing supply
Latest FNM-HPI Reading Shows Year-over-Year Increase of 5.8 Percent in Q4 2024
"Year-over-year home price growth accelerated in the fourth quarter, following back-to-back quarters of deceleration," said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "Inventories of existing homes for sale have improved from a year ago but remain historically low, due largely to the so-called 'lock-in effect.' Since the beginning of October, mortgage rates have rebounded after bottoming out around 6.1 percent and are now inching closer to a new psychological barrier, the 7 percent threshold. The higher mortgage rate environment is not only hurting affordability, but it's also exacerbating the lock-in effect by further reducing homeowners' incentive to move."
Palim continued: "The housing market in 2025 faces a difficult balancing act, with a notable decline in mortgage rates likely needed to help unwind the lock-in effect and thaw the supply of existing homes for sale. However, we believe such a decline would likely jumpstart demand from potential first-time homebuyers currently waiting to purchase, which could lead demand to outpace any improvement in supply, further exacerbating already-high home prices and purchase affordability."
The FNM-HPI is produced by aggregating county-level data to create both seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted national indices that are representative of the whole country and designed to serve as indicators of general single-family home price trends. The FNM-HPI is publicly available at the national level as a quarterly series with a start date of Q1 1975 and extending to the most recent quarter, Q4 2024. Fannie Mae publishes the FNM-HPI approximately mid-month during the first month of each new quarter.
For more information on the FNM-HPI, including a description of the methodology and the Q4 2024 data file, please visit our Research & Insights page on fanniemae.com.
To receive email updates regarding future FNM-HPI updates and other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here.
Fannie Mae's home price estimates are based on preliminary data available as of the date of index estimation and are subject to change as additional data become available. Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.
About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:
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