Home Price Growth Expected to Moderate as Listings Outpace Sales
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group predicts home price growth moderation in the coming years, with annual rates of 6.1% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025. Despite a 30% increase in home listings compared to last year, housing activity remains soft due to affordability constraints. The ESR Group has revised downward its starts and new home sales forecasts but upgraded its existing home sales forecast due to a lower mortgage rate path.
The group also lowered its inflation forecasts, expecting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to end 2024 at 2.9% and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index at 2.5%. As a result, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates in September and December. Regional variations in housing supply are noted, with Sunbelt metros experiencing significant inventory increases while Northeast and Midwest markets remain tight.
Il Gruppo di Ricerca Economica e Strategica (ESR) di Fannie Mae prevede una moderazione nella crescita dei prezzi delle abitazioni nei prossimi anni, con tassi annui del 6,1% nel 2024 e del 3,0% nel 2025. Nonostante un aumento del 30% delle inserzioni di case rispetto all'anno scorso, l'attività nel settore immobiliare rimane debole a causa di vincoli di sostenibilità. Il Gruppo ESR ha revisionato al ribasso le sue previsioni sui cantieri e sulle vendite di nuove abitazioni, ma ha aggiornato al rialzo la previsione per le vendite di case esistenti grazie a un percorso di tassi di mutuo più ridotto.
Il gruppo ha anche ridotto le sue previsioni sull'inflazione, aspettandosi che l'Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo (CPI) si attesti a fine 2024 al 2,9% e l'Indice delle Spese per Consumatori Personali (PCE) core al 2,5%. Di conseguenza, si prevede che la Federal Reserve riduca i tassi a settembre e dicembre. Sono state notate variazioni regionali nell'offerta di abitazioni, con le aree metropolitane del Sunbelt che registrano significativi aumenti di inventario, mentre i mercati del Northeast e del Midwest rimangono serrati.
El Grupo de Investigación Económica y Estratégica (ESR) de Fannie Mae prevé una moderación en el crecimiento de los precios de las viviendas en los próximos años, con tasas anuales del 6,1% en 2024 y del 3,0% en 2025. A pesar de un aumento del 30% en las listas de viviendas en comparación con el año pasado, la actividad en el sector inmobiliario se mantiene baja debido a las limitaciones de asequibilidad. El Grupo ESR ha revisado a la baja sus pronósticos de inicios y ventas de nuevas viviendas, pero ha actualizado al alza su pronóstico de ventas de casas existentes debido a un camino de tasas hipotecarias más bajo.
El grupo también bajó sus pronósticos de inflación, esperando que el Índice de Precios al Consumidor (CPI) termine 2024 en 2,9% y el Índice de Gastos en Consumo Personal (PCE) básico en 2,5%. Como resultado, se anticipa que la Reserva Federal reduzca las tasas en septiembre y diciembre. Se han notado variaciones regionales en la oferta de viviendas, con los metros del Sunbelt experimentando incrementos significativos en el inventario, mientras que los mercados del Noreste y del Medio Oeste siguen ajustados.
Fannie Mae의 경제 및 전략 연구(ESR) 그룹은 향후 몇 년 동안 주택 가격 성장의 둔화를 예측하고, 2024년에는 6.1%, 2025년에는 3.0%의 연간 성장을 예상하고 있습니다. 지난해 비해 주택 목록이 30% 증가했음에도 불구하고, 주택 시장은 저렴한 가격 문제로 인해 여전히 부진합니다. ESR 그룹은 주택 착공 및 신규 주택 판매 예측을 하향 조정했지만, 기존 주택 판매 예측은 상향 조정했습니다. 이는 주택담보대출 금리가 낮아질 것이라는 전망에 따른 것입니다.
그룹은 또한 인플레이션 예측을 낮췄습니다. 소비자 물가 지수(CPI)가 2024년 결국 2.9%에 도달하고, 개인 소비 지출(PCE)의 핵심 지수가 2.5%에 이를 것으로 예상하고 있습니다. 이로 인해 연방준비제도(Federal Reserve)는 9월과 12월에 금리를 인하할 것으로 보입니다. 주택 공급의 지역적 차이가 나타나고 있으며, 선벨트 지역에서는 재고가 크게 증가한 반면, 북동부 및 중서부 지역은 여전히 공급이 긴축된 상태입니다.
Le Groupe de Recherche Économique et Stratégique (ESR) de Fannie Mae prévoit une modération de la croissance des prix de l'immobilier dans les années à venir, avec des taux annuels de 6,1% en 2024 et de 3,0% en 2025. Malgré une augmentation de 30% des listes de maisons par rapport à l'année dernière, l'activité immobilière reste molle en raison des contraintes d'accessibilité. Le Groupe ESR a révisé à la baisse ses prévisions de mises en chantier et de ventes de nouvelles maisons, mais a amélioré ses prévisions de ventes de maisons existantes en raison d'une trajectoire de taux hypothécaires plus faible.
Le groupe a également revue ses prévisions d'inflation à la baisse, s'attendant à ce que l'Indice des Prix à la Consommation (CPI) se termine en 2024 à 2,9% et l'Indice des Dépenses de Consommation Personnelle (PCE) de base à 2,5%. En conséquence, il est prévu que la Réserve fédérale réduise les taux en septembre et décembre. Des variations régionales de l'offre de logements ont été notées, les métropoles du Sunbelt connaissant des augmentations significatives de l'inventaire, tandis que les marchés du Nord-Est et du Midwest restent tendus.
Die Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Gruppe von Fannie Mae prognostiziert eine Minderung des Anstiegs der Immobilienpreise in den kommenden Jahren, mit jährlichen Raten von 6,1% im Jahr 2024 und 3,0% im Jahr 2025. Trotz eines Anstiegs der Immobilienangebote um 30% im Vergleich zum Vorjahr bleibt die Marktaktivität aufgrund von Erschwinglichkeitsproblemen schwach. Die ESR-Gruppe hat ihre Prognosen für Bauanfänge und Neubauverkäufe nach unten korrigiert, aber gleichzeitig ihre Prognose für den Verkauf bestehender Immobilien erhöht aufgrund des niedrigeren Wegs der Hypothekenzinsen.
Die Gruppe hat auch ihre Inflationsprognosen nach unten korrigiert und erwartet, dass der Verbraucherpreisindex (CPI) bis Ende 2024 bei 2,9% und der Kern index der persönlichen Konsumausgaben (PCE) bei 2,5% liegt. Infolgedessen wird erwartet, dass die Federal Reserve im September und Dezember die Zinsen senkt. Es wurden regionale Unterschiede im Wohnungsangebot festgestellt, wobei die Metropolen im Sunbelt einen erheblichen Anstieg der Bestände verzeichnen, während die Märkte im Nordosten und im Mittleren Westen angespannt bleiben.
- Home price growth expected to remain positive, albeit moderating
- Existing home sales forecast revised upward
- Inflation forecasts lowered, with CPI expected to end 2024 at 2.9%
- Federal Reserve anticipated to cut rates in September and December
- Home price growth expected to moderate to 6.1% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025
- Housing activity remains soft due to affordability constraints
- Starts and new home sales forecasts revised downward
- Total new home sales expected to slightly decline for full-year 2024
Forecast of New Home Sales Downgraded, Existing Home Sales Upgraded
The ESR Group made only modest revisions to its economic growth outlook, as incoming data have come in largely in line with expectations for slowing growth. Notably, due to two consecutive lower-than-expected prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the ESR Group downwardly revised its inflation forecasts and now expects the CPI to end the year at 2.9 percent and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, to end the year at 2.5 percent. Due to the better inflation prints and signs of slowing in the labor market, the ESR Group now expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in both September and December.
"The housing market continues to wait for affordability to improve, even as the supply of new and existing homes for sale slowly rises," said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "The slight decline in mortgage rates of late, following data pointing to gradually slowing economic growth, has not been enough to overcome the significant affordability constraints imposed on would-be homebuyers. As such, despite more homes being listed for sale, actual home sales have not picked up. We continue to expect home price growth on a national level to decelerate – but remain positive -- over the near term, but it should be noted that conditions often vary by region, particularly as it relates to supply. For instance, many Sunbelt metros are currently seeing significant increases in for-sale inventories, in part due to new construction, while supply in much of the Northeast and Midwest remains extremely tight. In aggregate, we expect these varied market conditions to lead to a slight decline in total new home sales nationally for the full-year 2024, but a slight increase in existing homes sales."
Visit the Economic & Strategic Research site at fanniemae.com to read the full July 2024 Economic Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, Housing Forecast, and Multifamily Market Commentary. To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group or survey respondents included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group or survey respondents as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Doug Duncan, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets. The ESR Group was awarded the prestigious 2022 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy based on the accuracy of its macroeconomic forecasts published over the 4-year period from 2018 to 2021.
About Fannie Mae
Fannie Mae advances equitable and sustainable access to homeownership and quality, affordable rental housing for millions of people across America. We enable the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and drive responsible innovation to make homebuying and renting easier, fairer, and more accessible. To learn more, visit:
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